The first two weeks are the hardest to forecast, but now that we have enough baseline data on the teams, the simulation models in my head provide a clearer picture. After two games the lipstick is off the pig, and it?s easier to tell if that pig is a blue ribbon winner at the state fair or destined for a fatback sandwich at a greasy spoon along US 58 in Southside Virginia. Last week?s forecast was a sunny 10-5, taking the overall record to 20-11. No hurricanes or major storm systems this week, so playing conditions should be optimal just about everywhere. Bright and Sunny Weather games - Pittsburgh (3) at Philadelphia (5): Whenever these teams meet, I?m unpleasantly reminded of the most haggard driving experience east of the Mississippi, that being the Pennsylvania Turnpike. With its narrow lanes, perilously close concrete wall shoulders, and heavy truck traffic, it feels like you lose a year off your life every time you drive between Harrisburg and I-79. And even though it?s always sunny in Philadelphia (and no, I don?t get that show), it always seems to rain on the Turnpike by Breezewood. That has nothing to do with the game, and that?s because the forecast models indicate a 50% chance of victory for both teams. Just on a hunch, I like Philly?s D to rebound from the thrilling whipping they took from Dallas. Eagles 27, Steelers 20. - Dallas (2) at Green Bay (6): All the hype and hyperbole aside, this game comes down to which secondary plays better. Both were more flaming marshmallow than lightly buttered wheat toast last week. The Packers secondary capitalized on a series of Jon Kitna brainlocks that likely won?t happen to Tony Romo, though he is prone to some boneheaded turnovers of his own. Dallas should be more concerned with their secondary because their LB's have been lousy in coverage and the pass rush sputtered until desperation time last week. The Cowboys have been great in prime time lately, but picking against the Packers when John Madden is calling the game is insanity, Favre or not. Do yourself a favor and watch this game on mute...you?ll thank me later. Packers 30, Cowboys 28. - New Orleans (13) at Denver (11): There must be something about the Saints uniforms that cause DB's to play dumb. They have some talented guys back there, but in every game they make a couple of inexcusable gaffes. It cost them last week, and this week doesn?t get any easier with the Broncos. Brandon Marshall probably won?t catch more than about 15 passes this week, but rookie Eddie Royal has proven a very capable second banana. The Saints OL needs to start run blocking with tenacity; they appear to really miss Jeff Faine?s leadership and grit. This could turn into a real entertaining shootout, and even without Marques Colston the Saints have more bullets in the gun. I like the Saints' ability to pressure Jay Cutler more than I trust the Bronco D to get a stop against the Saints versatile offense. New Orleans 36, Denver 33. - New York Jets (14) at San Diego (15): San Diego has lost both games on essentially the exact same play: goal line pass plays that force safety Eric Weddle to commit to a crossing route just behind the LBs. Just a hunch, but Norv Turner should have that corrected this week by getting LB Eric Wilhelm to drop quicker and having his CB's play inside technique. Of course the Jets are unlikely to exploit that play, as Coach Mangini appears locked in on running between the tackles in goal line situations despite having one of the best all-time goal line QBs running the show. Mangini continues to remind me more and more of his mentor-turned-rival Bill Belichick, but not the good Belichick we know today. Back in his Browns' era, Belichick was best known for ?Metcalf up the middle? and for having Bernie Kosar run a QB sneak on 4th and 2, along with many other bizarre decisions (kicking a last-minute FG when losing by 13) that seemed to indicate he was trying to prove he?s smarter than everyone else rather than actually trying to win games. The Hoodie learned; Mangini clearly has yet to make that leap. The Chargers have a load of pent-up frustration and should take it out on the Jets like a prisoner on a conjugal visit. San Diego 41, New York 17. Mostly Clear games - Carolina (7) at Minnesota (19): Vikings Coach Brad Childress finally bit the bullet and pulled the plug on developing Tarvaris Jackson at QB, switching to veteran Gus Frerotte. His downfield accuracy and gambler?s mentality will keep defenses off the line, but Frerotte isn?t a panacea. Having top WRs Sidney Rice (knee) and Bernard Berrian (toe) at less than full strength isn?t going to help either, and the Panthers have very quietly assembled a fast, attacking defense that can contain Adrian Peterson. Everything about this game screams ?Cardiac Cats?, but sometimes you have to follow Dr. Isaac?s advice. My meteorology professor at Ohio University told us repeatedly that all the models and simulations are great, but sometimes you have to stick your head out the window and look up. Minnesota is too good to be 0-3, and I don?t believe Carolina?s run of good fortune will carry to a third straight win, not even with the return of Steve Smith. Vikings 20, Panthers 17. - Arizona (8) at Washington (18): This game is a good barometer for just how good the NFC East truly is. The Cardinals have been impressive on both sides of the ball in winning their first two games, and their defense should be able to get pressure on Jason Campbell. How well the Skins' passing game, both Campbell and his wideouts, can handle the pressure and exploit coverage mistakes will likely decide this one. Washington found a keeper in rookie safety Chris Horton, who wasn?t even expected to play but went out and created 3 turnovers. He?ll have his hands full with the Arizona passing attack, coming off a perfect QB rating for Kurt Warner and several long passes that forced the safeties to make snap decisions. I think the Cards are the better team and should win here, but I need to see them actually do it before I trust that gut instinct. Washington somehow wins 26-24. - Tampa Bay (17) at Chicago (22): Savvy move by Bucs coach Jon Gruden to give Brian Griese an opportunity to show up his former team, which foolishly saddled him behind Rex Grossman. Gaines Adams is a major problem for the Bears OL, and the strength of the Bucs OL matches up well with the strength of the Bears defense. But this is Chicago?s home opener, and that?s usually a strong sign of victory. Devin Hester?s uncertain status might strip away the field position advantage, but this is one of the few matchups where the Bears might have a better passing attack than their opponent. Memo to Greg Olsen: if you thought the Panthers were opportunistic and aggressive at stripping the ball, you ain?t seen nothing yet. Chicago is the pick only because the game is at home and Tampa Bay is often punchless on the road. Bears 20, Bucs 10. Overcast and Breezy Games - Cleveland (26) at Baltimore (16): Last year the Browns really started to turn around their season by beating the Ravens in Week 4, and if they have any shot at salvaging 2008 it needs to start here as well. Baltimore got an unexpected bye last week, which allowed them to get healthy but also killed the momentum of their opening victory. Also taking the luster off that win is the fact the Bengals team they beat appears legitimately awful. Browns Coach Romeo Crennel has thrown the gauntlet down to struggling QB Derek Anderson, paving the way for a QB change if Anderson can?t get anything going. Savvy coaching move for a guy who apparently doesn?t realize that when you?re losing by 7 with little time left, you don?t kick a 31-yard FG; either Anderson responds and gets back on track, or Brady Quinn gets to come in and save the day. The Browns are too talented to fall to 0-3. Cleveland 26, Baltimore 17. - Jacksonville (21) at Indianapolis (10): You can call this one the battle of the injury bug. The teams will combine to have 6 regular starting OL out for this one, and the Colts injury report looks Dickensian in length. Losing star safety Bob Sanders is a huge blow, particularly considering the Jaguars appear refocused on pounding the ball with the run. Bringing back freak-nasty G Chris Naeole will help them in that regard. An Indy win would not surprise me at all, but with Sanders, Saturday, Ugoh, and Pollak all out and Dallas Clark and Kelvin Hayden both real iffy plays, the Colts will need a superhuman performance from Peyton Manning to do it. I like that JAX can control the clock with the run game, and that the Colts have little ability to run the ball themselves to keep the pressure off Manning. Jaguars 33, Colts 28. - Houston (27) at Tennessee (9): Has a defense with two legit stars ever been as horrible as Houston?s? Mario Williams is an All Pro DE, Demeco Ryans is an outstanding MLB, yet the Texans can?t stop the run and it?s even worse when the other team throws. The Titans win ugly, but they don?t beat themselves and figure to look better with another week of Kerry Collins at QB. The Tennessee secondary is quietly developing into one of the better ones, and they?ll survive the Andre Johnson test here. Real tough matchup for Houston after the last 10 days they?ve had with Hurricane Ike and the schedule shuffle; the Titans have won the last 6 meetings. The Texans have enough talent to put out an emotionally fueled game like the Giants did when Mr. Tisch died, but because they are so young they could also crumble quickly under the weight of it all. Titans 24, Texans 16. A November Afternoon in Kamchatka Games - Kansas City (29) at Atlanta (20): The Tyler Thigpen experience has begun! The Chiefs turned to their young 3rd stringer, and he performed about how you would expect for a seldom-used project QB. He has mobility and unwavering confidence in his arm, two assets that offer promise in KC. The Falcons really slowed down once rookie LT Sam Baker left the game last week; if he can?t go in this one, the Chiefs more aggressive D could net them a win. Watch for a big week from ATL WR Roddy White, a smart fantasy play for those in salary cap-based games. Michael Turner could run wild as well, as the Chiefs gave up over 300 yards rushing last week to an Oakland team that doesn?t even try to throw the ball. Falcons go to 2-1 with a 27-17 home win. - Miami (28) at New England (4): Shame on anyone who doubted the resolve of the Patriots or the remaining talent they still sport on both sides of the ball. You?d better believe Bill Belichick has sold this group on proving they can do it without the fallen Brady, and this veteran-laden team buys into it. Matt Cassel can really build more confidence facing the truly dreadful Miami secondary, on pace to allow the highest opposing QB rating in league history. Jake Long struggled last week against the quick 3-4 of the Cardinals, and now he faces an even tougher challenge with Ty Warren, Mike Vrabel, and Adalius Thomas, fresh from one of the more impressive sacks you?ll ever see when he tackled both Favre and Leon Washington with one hand. Patriots roll 37-9. - Oakland (25) at Buffalo (12): The Raiders wisely unleashed rookie phenom Darren McFadden last week and ran to a victory over the Chiefs. Mr. McFadden, meet Mr. Stroud, backed up by Mr. Posluszny. Tommie Kelly?s DUI and the uncertain status of Coach Kiffin bring more headaches that Oakland simply doesn?t need. It?s games like these that the Bills need to win comfortably if they want to be taken seriously as a playoff contender. They might make it look more difficult than it needs to be, but the Bills move to 3-0 with a 24-20 home victory. - Cincinnati (31) at New York Giants (1): All the offseason criticism leveled at the Bengals was about their defense, but thus far that has been the better of their units. In two games Carson Palmer has thrown for 228 yards and zero TDs despite having the best WR duo in the league. Their 19 total first downs are barely more than what they averaged per game two seasons ago. That franchise tag on Stacy Andrews looks horrific after how badly he has played the first two weeks, and now he draws the very strong Giants pass rush. This one has mismatch written all over it, but it?s these types of games that have historically given Tom Coughlin-coached teams fits. Expect an ugly affair and a big day from Brandon Jacobs. Giants 34, Bengals 10. - Detroit (30) at San Francisco (23): I know many members of the Lions defense blame last season?s woes on Mike Martz, now the offensive coordinator in SF, for causing them to be on the field too long. They desperately want to show him up, and they have the advantage of knowing 49ers QB JT O?Sullivan very well. This game has turnover battle written all over it, and the Lions haven?t won a game in which they lost the turnover battle this century. The Niners aren?t very good, but they do have some playmakers on defense that can continue Jon Kitna?s misery. Niners 30, Lions 24. - St. Louis (32) at Seattle (24): Seattle is currently auditioning wide receivers. St. Louis is currently seeking any competent interior linemen and cornerbacks. Watch this one only if you?re desperate. Seattle 36, St. Louis 13.