After a successful UFC PPV last weekend, the world’s leading MMA promotion returns with another big event this weekend.
© USA Today
UFC Vegas 48 takes place this Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas and it features 12 fights in total, including an exciting main event between Johnny Walker and Jamahal Hill.
Keep reading below as we give our UFC picks for the main event and recommend some other plays that we believe offer good UFC betting value on this card.
Jamahal Hill Vs. Johnny Walker Odds
|Jamahal Hill, -250||Johnny Walker, +200|
Odds via BetMGM and current as of publication.
UFC Vegas 48 Betting Analysis: Hill Vs. Walker
Hill has been very impressive so far in the UFC. Since joining the UFC in 2020, he has gone 3-1, 1 NC. In his last fight, Hill picked up the biggest win of his career when he knocked out Jimmy Crute in the first round. He needed that win because in the fight before that he had his arm dislocated by Paul Craig in one of 2021’s craziest finishes.
Instead of sulking, however, Hill got back in the gym, put the work in, and bounced back with the win over Crute. The sport of MMA is as much physical as it is mental, and seeing Hill bounce back like that from such a brutal defeat showed us this is a fighter that has a strong mindset.
Now, let's talk about Walker. After winning his first three UFC fights by knockout, Walker looked like he was going to be something special. But for whatever reason, Walker’s game has completely fallen off, and he enters this bout having lost three of his last four fights.
To be fair to Walker, he has fought some really high-level competition, but he just hasn’t looked that good. He is missing the trademark aggressiveness that he used to possess and, quite frankly, he looks like a shell of his former self. Where did the old Walker go?
Jamahal Hill (-250) vs. Johnny Walker (+200) Prediction
Most of Hill’s wins have come by knockout, and Walker has been dropped three times in his last four fights. I expect Hill to not only win this fight as a -250 favorite, but I also expect him to finish Walker during this fight. If the -250 moneyline on Hill with BetMGM is too rich for your blood, you could bet on Hill to win inside the distance at -150 instead to cut down on the juice.
The Pick: Jamahal Hill at -250 with BetMGM
Alternative Pick: Jamahal Hill Inside The Distance at -150 with BetMGM
Other UFC Vegas 48 Best Bets
Nikolas Motta (-172) vs. Jim Miller (+140)
An interesting main card lightweight bout sees UFC newcomer Nikolas Motta take on Jim Miller. While Motta is the favorite according to top sportsbooks, I actually favor Miller to win this fight, and to get him at +140 seems like excellent value for the longtime UFC veteran.
I’m really perplexed by the betting line for this fight. Motta has never fought in the UFC, and he hasn’t fought in almost two years, so I don’t understand why all of a sudden he’s favored to beat Miller, who is one of the most respected veterans in the game. It feels extremely disrespectful that a UFC rookie would be favored over Miller, who has nearly 40 UFC fights under his belt.
It’s worth noting that betting apps actually opened up Miller as the favorite, so the fact the line has flipped, and now Motta is the favorite, is interesting. I get that Miller is 38 years old, but he’s still in fine form, and in his last fight he knocked out another young prospect in Erick Gonzalez. He’s been beating prospects on the level of Motta his entire UFC career.
Motta is a decent puncher, but Miller is the better overall MMA fighter. Motta has a weakness on the ground with his submission defense, and he’s also been knocked out a few times. I think Miller absolutely can get the finish in this fight. Give me Miller to win outright as the underdog at +140 with FanDuel, and for extra value, let’s go with Miller to win inside the distance at +250 with BetMGM.
The Pick: Jim Miller at +140 with FanDuel
Alternative Pick: Jim Miller Inside The Distance at +250 with BetMGM
Jessica-Rose Clark (-190) vs. Stephanie Egger (+160)
In the prelims, Jessica-Rose Clark fights Stephanie Egger in the women’s bantamweight division. Clark is a -190 favorite with DraftKings and I believe that’s a cheap price to pay for her given she is the clear favorite to win this fight, one where we would cap her closer to a -300 favorite.
Clark matches up well against Egger. Not only is Clark a capable wrestler, but she’s also a capable striker, as well. Looking at the statistics, Clark is landing more than four significant strikes per minute compared to less than two per minute for Egger. While Egger is a decent grappler, so is Clark, and Clark is the better striker, so overall she’s the better MMA fighter.
Clark at -190 is a good play this weekend, and I also like Clark to win the fight by decision at +130. Most women’s MMA fights go the distance and considering five of Clark’s six UFC fights have gone the full 15 minutes, there’s no reason to think that this one won’t, either.
The Pick: Jessica Rose-Clark at -190 with DraftKings
Alternative Pick: Jessica Rose-Clark via decision at +130 with BetMGM