Last Week: 2-2, right on the NFC, wrong on the AFC. Just three NFL games remain this season, and this weekend decides which two teams advance to the Super Bowl at Jerry?s Palace in Dallas (err, Arlington). Green Bay at Chicago: I see a whole lot of parallels and d?j? vu for Chicago in this one. Think back a few years to the last time the Bears hosted the NFC title game, when the high-powered Saints came marching into Chicago as heavy favorites by the general fandom. The Bears largely dominated that game and went on to the Super Bowl even though almost nobody thought they could. That certainly appears to be the prevailing sentiment one again. Even the odds makers agree, which is crazy considering the Bears are the #2 seed, Green Bay is the #6 seed, and the Packers are 3.5 point favorites. Some of that is the bookies trying to generate some juice on the Chicago side, because when popular sentiment leans so heavily towards one side it?s difficult for the books to get equal action on both sides--which is how they ensure a profit. It?s easy to see why everyone likes Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers is playing as well as any quarterback has played in the playoffs in a long time, if ever. The two corners, Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, are controlling the game in very impressive fashion. Even their shaky offensive line has played better, giving Rodgers time and playing with better cohesion and grit than they showed at any time in the regular season. Clay Matthews is a man possessed, demanding all sorts of attention and help on every snap and still making plays. Their inside backers are peaking right now, closing on the run and staying with tight ends and backs in coverage much better than during the regular season. In short, the team is peaking and it?s top playmakers are on top of their games. But Chicago has seen this movie before. No way could they possibly keep up with Drew Brees and all weapons! No chance their vanilla defense could hold the high-flying Saints under 30 points. Impossible that Rex Grossman could utilize a cast of largely anonymous receivers with no playoff experience to speak of and outscore that team. Except they did all that...and I think they?ll do it again. The key is Matt Forte, and more specifically how Mike Martz uses him. As awesome as Clay Matthews is, he does get sucked up the field, and with the Bears having strong threats at tight end, that leaves a whole lot of uncovered space behind Matthews. Forte is an excellent receiver and also does a good job of bouncing draws and delayed handoffs outside. Green Bay must pay attention to those holes behind where Matthews rushes, but not lose track of Greg Olsen and/or Devin Hester stretching the seam and flying from the slot. Jay Cutler is good at play action, and on what will likely be a lousy playing surface the receivers have a definite advantage on double moves and good play action fakes. Think back to that Saints game, when all the attention was on Rex Grossman. The Bears came out and pounded a good, aggressive Saints defense into submission with Thomas Jones. I see Forte doing the same sort of thing, taking the game into his own hands and not making the game a Jay Cutler vs. Aaron Rodgers contest. The Bears coaches are smart enough to know they?re not going to win that battle without a lot of luck. I also like the Bears special teams to make an impact play or two. They are incredibly potent at home, able to alter the game with one quick play. It?s not just Devin Hester running back punts either; their coverage units are exceptional, Brad Maynard is a strong cold-weather punter, and Robbie Gould is a proven money kicker. The Packers are no slouches, but in Soldier Field the Bears special teams are an unparalleled animal. Bears 20, Packers 17. New York Jets at Pittsburgh: Reasons why I think the Steelers will win: -- I greatly respect and trust in Ben Roethlisberger's big game ability, more than I trust Mark Sanchez in a cold weather game in a hostile environment. -- I think the way they generate pressure off both edges is a real problem, particularly the way James Harrison can get into the lightweight D?Brickashaw Ferguson and drive him. For a guy like D?Brick that likes to cheat outside with his first step, Harrison is a major problem with his leverage and brute power. The emergence of Ziggy Hood being a legit rush threat inside him means there won?t be any help, something that was not true in the first meeting. -- Braylon Edwards has been great for the Jets for an extended period. Sorry Mr. Edwards, but consistency is not your strong suit. He?s overdue for a clunker game, and those tend to happen when he?s overconfident. That 8-catch, 100-yard outing in Pittsburgh earlier has him brimming with confidence. -- The Jets haven?t had to deal with much of a pass rush or aggressive defense in their two playoff victories. This sort of ties in with the above point, but puts the shoe on the other foot. I love the Jets offensive line, Nick Mangold in particular, but they?re in for a challenge that is nothing like what they?ve seen lately. Adjusting to that sort of hyper-aggression and trying to account for a wild card like Troy Polamalu is a major test, and I?m concerned there will be a little trouble with the transition. -- Pittsburgh?s offensive line is a big concern, but they do run block downhill pretty well as a group. Heinz Field is some shoddy shod, and that favors guys like Chris Kemoeatu and Flozell Adams out in front of Rashard Mendenhall. On the flip side, bad turf is a problem for a wait-and-cut runner like LaDainian Tomlinson. -- It?s very difficult to beat a team on the road twice in the same season. The Jets won 22-17 in Pittsburgh, a score that includes the Jets running back the opening kickoff for a touchdown. -- I?m admittedly not a big Rex Ryan guy, but I?ll concede that his methods are a great philosophical fit with his team. But I have a hard time believing he can get his troops into the emotional frenzy and laser focus that he masterfully accomplished a week ago. He?s toned it down this week, which makes him more tolerable but arguably less effective. -- I?m more than a little worried that some Jets will feel like they?ve already accomplished their mission by beating the Patriots. Outwardly they?ll never intimate that, of course, but it?s real hard to bring that sort of intensity and emotion after such a sweet and thoroughly satisfying win. History has shown this to be true time and again. -- The Jets are 4-15 lifetime against the Steelers, including 1-7 in Pittsburgh. They have won the last two meetings, but the game that stands out is the 20-17 Steelers win in the divisional round back in 2005. Jets fans know this as the ?Doug Brien game?. Heinz Field has a funny way of creating strange breezes at the most opportune times. Pittsburgh 27, New York 24. - Daily in-depth reports from the Senior Bowl next week, starting Monday! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com