Last Week: 9-7, pushing the season forecast to 154-70. Game of the Week: Denver at Philadelphia: Both these teams need this game, even though the Eagles have already clinched a playoff berth. Philly is playing for a shot at the #2 seed, not to mention a coveted NFC East title. They're at home, they're getting Brian Westbrook (tangent: if Rich Gannon calls him "Michael" one more time he deserves to be fired) back, and their pass defense has reached its apex. Even though much of the cast has changed, the Broncos have to feel like they've seen this movie before. Last year they were three games up with three to play and blew it, which led to radical changes. Negative momentum is a real demon, and this franchise certainly has it in December. I do think this particular group won't fold up like a cheap card table, but in order to beat a hot Philly team they have to make few mistakes and take advantage of every opportunity. I'm just not sold they can do that on the road against a very strong Eagles team. Philly 26, Denver 21. San Diego at Tennessee: Two hot teams, both with a lot to play for, and that makes this a fantastic game. San Diego can wrap up the #2 seed in the AFC with a win, while the Titans still have some Wild Card aspirations. From a matchup standpoint, I really like how this shapes up for San Diego; their tall receivers and Philip Rivers' great downfield accuracy are quite problematic for a Titans defense that still struggles to stop the pass. I also like the quickness of the Chargers defensive front to keep Chris Johnson in check (as in check as he can be kept) and to keep Vince Young from running wild. But something tells me these Titans will find a way. They are playing with a tightness and confidence that is hard to stop, particularly at home. They have a clutch kicker and an innovative, smart coaching staff that can attack chinks in the Charger armor. Most importantly, they genuinely believe they are a team of destiny, that they can overcome the 0-6 start and still make the playoffs. The way they've been playing, it's hard to argue with that. Tennessee finds a way, 28-26. Jacksonville at New England: The passing attack Jacksonville threw at the Colts gives them a much better chance at winning this one, but it won't be easily replicated. The key will be Maurice Jones-Drew and if he can break off big runs against a Patriots defense that has some vulnerability. That sets up play action, and the Pats will bite at times. The problem for Jacksonville is their lack of pass rush. You beat the Patriots by pressuring Tom Brady, throwing off their timing, and getting Randy Moss wrapped up in his own mind games. The Jaguars have trouble getting pressure even when they blitz. Jacksonville doesn't have the firepower to keep up in a shootout. Much like last week, Jacksonville is game but the opponent is just a little better. New England 33, Jacksonville 27. Baltimore at Pittsburgh: I'll be in Cleveland over the weekend, and my family is pretty much all die-hard Browns fans. That means I'll be watching this game with a group of people hoping for a scoreless tie and a lot of injuries. But more pragmatically, they'll be rooting for Pittsburgh because a Steelers win really damages the Ravens' playoff chances while still not vaulting Pittsburgh into the final spot. It will be cold, it will likely be windy, and it will be an all-out war. I like the matchup of Baltimore's defensive front against Pittsburgh's offensive line as the best advantage in the "tales of the tape," and I think Ed Reed is the kind of safety that can read Big Ben and ruin some of those improvisational masterpieces that are the staple of the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh should have the ability to pressure Joe Flacco, but sans Polamalu they don't have the same ability to shut down the scramble plays. I also like Ray Rice's inside-out versatility to keep the Steelers D off-balance. With both teams having issues at kicker, that sort of negates the Heinz Field advantage. I like the Ravens to squeak one out, perhaps with a defensive score. Baltimore 21, Pittsburgh 17. NY Jets at Indianapolis: It is critical for the Colts to jump out early, because the Jets defense leads the league in efficiency and thrives on strong starts. A quick start will also keep the Colts focused and enthusiastic about a pointless game...or at least that's the company line. But I think these Colts want a perfect season a lot more than they're letting on, and ripping apart a (ridiculously overhyped) vaunted defense along the way makes it all the better. Indy has a solid defense of their own, and the Jets have trouble scoring against bad ones (see: Atlanta). No way does Peyton Manning let the perfect season go down against a rookie quarterback. No freaking way. Colts 34, Jets 17. Houston at Miami: The way the Texans played last weekend against the hopeless Rams really discouraged me. Yes, they moved the ball well and kept points off the board, but they struggled to score and just didn't look comfortable or confident in what they were doing in clutch situations. That dog don't hunt against a skilled team like the Dolphins. Miami has the combination of pass rush and solid (mostly) coverage that can also keep Houston from scoring. I trust Tony Sparano to find ways to attack the Texans defense in unexpected ways. Sparano has proven to be an innovative and creative play caller and a master of minor tweaks, which often are the difference between an opponent sniffing out what you're doing and having them chasing their own tail. Miami 30, Houston 20. Buffalo at Atlanta: The Bills will start Brian Brohm at quaterback, as both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards are injured. As much as Edwards is ineffective and Fitzpatrick mistake-prone, my spies tell me there will be a major drop-off to Brohm. I hold out some hope; I was higher on Brohm than most when he was drafted in the second round in 2008, but he quickly washed out of Green Bay. I strongly admire what Atlanta has done in spite of all their injuries, and the fact they're still playing every snap like it's the last play of the Super Bowl doesn't bode well for the visitors. Nor does the loss of rookie interception machine Jairus Byrd. Atlanta 30, Buffalo 9. Dallas at Washington: If the two teams that showed up last week meet in this one, Dallas could hang 60 on the hapless Redskins. I don't see that happening, but I do think the Giants beat the stuffing and the pride out of Washington. It won't be easy for them to get that back against a Cowboys team brimming with confidence and playing with purposeful attitude. Dallas finally found the "on" switch for the intensity and swagger, and I believe that because it worked so darn well against the Saints, they're apt to leave it on. They do have serious issues at kicker, where Redskins reject Sean Suisham takes over, but the odds this one comes down to a kick are about the same as Jon & Kate reconciling happily. Cowboys 27, Redskins 10. Oakland at Cleveland: Brady Quinn is out, which makes the return of Charlie Frye as the starting quarterback of the Raiders all the more interesting. As you may recall, Frye beat out Derek Anderson for the starting gig in 2007, only to piss it away before halftime of the opener. Now he returns and faces off against Anderson again. Of course that's probably all for naught, as both teams are run-heavy offensively and run-challenged defensively. Jerome Harrison won't break 200 again, but he could threaten it if the Raiders don't bring their "A" effort. You can never really know which Raiders team you're getting until kickoff, but at least with Frye you know the offense will try. The Browns won last week despite having no ability to throw the ball, no real ability to stop the Chiefs from doing what they wanted, and needed two Josh Cribbs returns for touchdowns to go with Harrison's 280+ yards to win. To boil that down, every single thing they needed to have happen to win happened. That just doesn't happen two weeks in a row to most any team, let alone a 3-11 one in Cleveland with a backup quarterback and a lame-duck coach. Raiders 27, Browns 23. Kansas City at Cincinnati: I worry a little about an emotional letdown after the wrenching loss in San Diego, but I think this is the week where the Bengals honor their fallen comrade, Chris Henry. The home fans will keep the emotional intensity high. Plus the Chiefs can't do anything defensively to slow down Cedric Benson or the brutish Cincy offensive line. This one could get ugly quickly. Cincinnati 40, Kansas City 17. Carolina at New York Giants: This has all the trappings of a low-scoring, hard-hitting, defensive and field position battle with a lot of running. That is certainly Carolina Panthers football, but I get the sense they proved their point last weekend with their pounding of Minnesota. I don't think Matt Moore can do it again, even against the inferior New York secondary. Nor do I think Julius Peppers will dominate like he did in embarrassing Bryant McKinnie. The Giants appear to have their act together after the rout of the Redskins, and as much as I like to criticize Eli Manning, he generally plays quite well in these sorts of games. New York is a low-confidence pick. Giants 24, Panthers 20. Seattle at Green Bay: When these teams met two years ago in the NFC playoffs in the snow, Seattle jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead. The Packers stormed back and put Seattle on ice, and they've never really thawed out. It's going to be cold in Green Bay, both in temperature and in reception for the Seahawks. They cannot run against this Packers defense or keep Matt Hasselbeck upright long enough to let him throw some more interceptions to Charles Woodson, who is acutely aware he needs a couple more signature plays to win a Defensive Player of the Year award, which he wants badly. Packers 31, Seahawks 10. Minnesota at Chicago: There are several intriguing subtexts to this game. How does Favre respond to the growing negativity and challenges to his character? How do his teammates, not to mention Coach Childress, handle his response? How do the Bears handle playing out the string? Do they show heart or do they tank it in an attempt to a.) jump off the sinking Chicago ship, or b.) get their coaches fired? To answer them in order: Favre is impervious to pretty much anything outside his own head, so he'll be fine. His teammates value winning more than they give a crap about in-house politics, so they'll be fine. The Bears come out with heart but quickly revert to plan B. Vikings cruise 33-16. St. Louis at Arizona: The Cardinals got their clunker out of the way last week. Sure, they held on to beat the Lions, but they did everything they could to choke it away. The refs sure helped save their bacon too. I think they got the message that Coach Whisenhunt wanted -- don't overlook anyone, and play 60 minutes hard. Bad news for the Rams, who at least have found some defensive building blocks and just may have found a quarterback in Keith Null. Please don't hold his 18-for-35 with 3 interceptions this weekend against him. Cardinals 33, Rams 14. Detroit at San Francisco: Drew Stanton gets the start for Detroit. While I applaud Coach Jim Schwartz for realizing that Daunte Culpepper clearly isn't the answer and I love Stanton's pluck and fire, I'm not sure he's going to have a good game. Patrick Willis is the best inside linebacker in the game, and the Niners bring just enough heat to give a struggling Detroit offensive line some problems. No secondary receiving threat has stepped forward to take pressure off Calvin Johnson, and even a middling secondary can shut down a one-dimensional attack. Venerable Lions kicker Jason Hanson has been uncharacteristically shaky, which also hurts the upset chances. Lions play hard but fall (a common refrain) 26-20. Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Uhh, pass. Saints 39, Bucs 12.