Last Week: 10-6, taking the season forecast to 135-57. The weather outside is frightful for much of the football-playing country. The Thursday Night game in Cleveland will be played under a blizzard warning, and the after-effects of the cold Arctic blast will linger in Chicago, New York, Baltimore and New England for Sunday?s games. One of the great misconceptions is that snowy conditions slow down passing attacks. On the contrary, snow and iffy footing actually helps the receivers. They know where they are going, while the defenders have to react, making them much more likely to misstep or lose a tackling angle. Quick-footed short-range receivers like Wes Welker, Devin Hester, and Steve Smith the Panther should thrive. Wind is the great equalizer however, and this is where QB arm strength really comes into play. News quick hit: The NFL issued a couple of fines this week. Cowboys LT Flozell Adams got fined $50K for a cheap-shot shove of Giants DE Justin Tuck that started a fracas before halftime. Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco got fined $30K for putting on a sombrero and poncho on the sideline. Let me get this straight: a player who tries to start a fight and goes far beyond unsportsmanlike conduct on the field is only a little more problematic to the league than a noted clown playing dress-up well off the field? Way to send a message to the young people that you?re much more accepting of violence and poor sportsmanship than good-natured fun, Mr. Goodell. Adams should have been suspended (it was his 5th fine in his last 16 games, same as Ochocinco), and #85 should have gotten nothing more than a $5K slap for perhaps being ethnically insensitive in an ignorant manner. Thursday Game Pittsburgh at Cleveland: The Steelers finally catch a break, drawing the woeful Browns for the Thursday night special that almost nobody gets to watch on the NFL Network. Or is it really a break? Troy Polamalu is still out, and Coach Tomlin is implementing some defensive lineup changes in an effort to shake up his reeling team. The Browns have played better lately, including a very strong comeback effort against the Chargers a week after dancing in neutral with the division-leading Bengals. Brady Quinn impressed last week, and the O-line is finally congealing. This is the time of year where the old Parcells axiom ?You are what your record says you are? comes into play. These Steelers are legitimately 6-6, and there isn?t a whole lot Mike Tomlin can do to remedy that, not sans Aaron Smith, Troy Polamalu, and with some wretched special teams. Fortunately for Pittsburgh, Cleveland is 1-11 and has just one win in 19 tries against the Steelers, with the average score 31-15. This one figures to be closer, but still a Pittsburgh win. Steelers 27, Browns 17. Game of the Week Cincinnati at Minnesota: This is a major test for the Vikings, because the Bengals defense is well-suited to do the same sorts of things that Arizona did. Adrian Peterson was bottled up by quick, agile linemen and hard-hitting LBs with gap discipline in Arizona, and that also describes Cincinnati?s defense. Last week the Vikings pass offense couldn?t compensate, and that won?t be any easier with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph at CB. Good teams make adjustments, and I expect Brad Childress to design a different sort of attack. It won?t be anything dramatic, but little tinkers and twists that get Brett Favre in a groove and open up the defense. They?ll need all five starting linemen going strong to make it work though. The question becomes, can they outscore the Bengals? I think they can. Cincy?s offense is based on the run setting up the pass, and nobody clogs up running lanes better than the Vikings. The Bengals don?t have much of a vertical passing game to keep the safeties honest, ranking near the bottom in passing plays for 20+ yards. They have little to offer at TE or receiving out of the backfield, which makes life in coverage a lot easier for the Vikings LBs. The Bengals have slogged through wins over Cleveland and Detroit, scoring just one offensive TD in each game against two of the worst defenses in the league. Even though Cincy tends to play to the level of competition, I don?t think their ?on? switch lights up enough to keep pace with the Vikings. Minnesota 20, Cincinnati 13. Appointment Viewing Philadelphia at NY Giants: When I?m conflicted on my thoughts on a game, I often turn to my wife for advice. Frequent readers will note my beloved is very good at cutting and drying complex situations for me. So when I brought this matchup to her, she asked me three questions. 1. Which QB do you trust more in big games? I answered Donovan McNabb, especially against New York?s secondary. 2. Which offensive line is playing better? That bullet has Philly?s name on it. (Tangential personal note to my brother--yes, I?m listening to Nonpoint. Shelve that weak Modest Mouse and Death Cab for Cutie crap and start rocking again!) 3. Who is better at taking care of the ball? Philly is +10, the Giants are -1 in turnover margin. All three favor the Eagles, the home field be damned. Thanks baby! Philadelphia 34, New York 27. San Diego at Dallas: If you took the Cowboys in September and paired it with the Chargers in December, you?d have yourself a team with a real good shot at going undefeated. It?s the Chargers time to shine and the Cowboys time to wonder what the hell just happened. At least that?s how some will frame these teams. I?m not quite ready to give up on the Cowboys just yet, but this is a real tough opponent to break the nasty trend. Dallas must avoid turning the ball over and committing stupid penalties, and take advantage of San Diego?s vulnerable run defense. The Cowboys defense is going to struggle to contain Philip Rivers & Co., but San Diego?s inability to effectively run the ball (they rank 31st in rushing efficiency) means Demarcus Ware can pin his ears back and go after Rivers without fear of giving up containment. It?s not like Rivers is going to run away from him. I think this Dallas team has pride and makes a last stand here, led by Marion Barber and more stellar play from Keith Brooking, who has quietly had himself a very good year. Dallas sheds the December monkey off its back and beats the Chargers 31-27. Denver at Indianapolis: All the talk about ?can the Colts go undefeated? and their seeming apathy towards accomplishing the feat leads me to believe their incredible string is about to end. They?ve already wrapped up their division, and the #1 seed is theirs with just one more win. They don?t need this game, and Denver badly needs it to improve their playoff lot. That?s the psychological aspect to the game. That might favor Denver, but the Xs and Os are decidedly tilted towards the home team. Even though I like how Denver mixes up their coverages and brings exotic pressure packages, I still believe Peyton Manning is having one of, if not the greatest ever QB seasons. They run the ball just effectively enough to keep some semblance of balance, and they don?t turn the ball over--only Detroit (Detroit?!) has lost as few fumbles (4). Defensively the Colts are getting exceptional all-around play from their superb defensive ends, and their lowly-regarded replacement corners are playing quite well too. They?ve seen this Denver offense before and know how to counter-attack, and they have the horses to do so. And contrary to popular opinion, I believe the undefeated season is very important to Peyton Manning. That will carry them against a tough Denver team. Colts 28, Broncos 24. Worth the Price of Admission Miami at Jacksonville: The battle of AFC Florida has huge playoff ramifications. The Jaguars currently hold the six seed and have won four of five, though not exactly in impressive or fan-inspiring manner. The Dolphins are just a game back both in the Wild Card and the AFC East and appear to have adjusted nicely to losing Ronnie Brown. I like how Jacksonville has played to their offensive strengths lately, pounding Mo Jones-Drew and using play action and a barrage of intermediate pass routes to an underrated WR corps. David Garrard is poised and seeing the field well. That?s good, because Miami?s fairly streaky defense is due for a warm spell, and the pass rush is already hot. Another hot Dolphin is QB Chad Henne, who torched the Patriots last week. Because the Jags have the weakest pass rush in the league, there is little reason to think he won?t do the same to Jacksonville. Brian Hartline is showing increasing aptitude as a rookie wideout, and that helps free up Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo. I know, not exactly an imposing group, but they all have great hands and can run after the catch. Slow and steady drives, mixing the run and the pass, using the Wildcat to keep the defense off-balance, it?s a very sound recipe for success for Miami. They should be able to dictate the action to the JAX defense. I also really favor Miami and their red zone advantage, where the Dolphins rank 2nd on offense, the Jaguars at 29th, and Miami is a little better on defense too. The Jaguars have been much better at home, but a half-full stadium isn?t much of a home field advantage against a fellow warm-weather team. I like the Dolphins, though this would be my lowest confidence game pick this week. Miami 24, Jacksonville 23. Arizona at San Francisco: After such an impressive whipping of Minnesota, it would be very easy to brand this a ?letdown? game for Arizona. The problem with that is these Cardinals are hungry for payback, as the 49ers beat them in Glendale in the opener. Then there?s the worry about a ?trap? game, as the Niners aren?t exactly playoff-caliber. The problem with that: the next two games on Arizona?s schedule are Detroit and St. Louis. Arizona is defensively well-suited to handle the spread passing attack, as they love to blitz and they are exceptionally good at it, plus they have defensive backs that can make plays. The Niners are still struggling with a banged-up OL, and their spotty pass rush means Kurt Warner will have time to pick apart an underrated SF secondary. Coach Whisenhunt keeps his troops sharp and Arizona wraps up the NFC West with a 29-20 Monday Night win. Upset of the Week NY Jets at Tampa Bay: I had an excellent historical analysis of this matchup all set for publication, and then Jets Coach Rex Ryan announces Mark Sanchez is out and Kellen Clemens will be the starting QB. Throw the Jets? 8-1 lifetime record against Tampa, the six wins in a row in the series--all by at least double the point spread--, and the Bucs 1-11 record this year out the window. The Kellen Clemens that played last Thursday in relief would not start for any team playing in a BCS bowl, let alone the NFL. Tampa isn?t good, but lately they haven?t been awful. Josh Freeman is getting more accurate, and the OL is blocking much more inspired knowing he can make things happen with time. Their defense is showing signs of life too. I think the Jets are clearly the better team and should win, but a mid-week monkey wrench means all bets are off. Bucs 17, Jets 13. Worthy of Attention Green Bay at Chicago: I am fascinated by Bears fans and how rapidly they?ve turned on their team. You might remember their 3-1 start and the Super Bowl talk. Since then they?ve won just two games, and those games were against teams (CLE and STL) with two combined wins. Now the talk on Chicago sports radio is akin to Rush Limbaugh?s takes on Hillary Clinton and Barney Frank. You might also remember that even when the Bears were playing well, the Packers beat them. Chicago?s inconceivable lack of talent on the offensive line--they need four new starters next year if they hope to improve, which will be difficult with no 1st or 2nd round picks--is a recipe for disaster against a steadily improving Packers defense, which has finally found a role for A.J. Hawk. Now thriving as the inside cover-man and B-gap stuffer/blitzer inside fellow longhair Clay Matthews, Hawk?s patience and perseverance has been rewarded, and the Cheeseheads are much better for it. The Bears have been quite good at home in December lately, but this Bears team is (take your pick) a.) playing out the string trying not to get hurt, or b.) playing to get either themselves or their coaches fired. Neither will beat Green Bay. Packers cruise 33-16. New Orleans at Atlanta: Last week proved to the Saints that they must not overlook anyone. That?s real bad news for the Falcons, who have a host of key injuries that have essentially scuttled a once-promising season. New Orleans was already a poor matchup for Atlanta at full strength, but with no Matt Ryan, no Sam Baker, and both Michael Jenkins and Michael Turner slowed, the Falcons have very little hope. Saints 36, Falcons 10. Carolina at New England: Here?s a stat I bet makes Bill Belichick?s blood boil: the Patriots have the worst pass defense in the league over the past month, in terms of opposing QB rating allowed. Here?s something that will lower that boil to a cool: Matt Moore is the Carolina QB, and he hasn?t completed a pass that went more than 15 yards downfield in his last 3 games. Moore is pretty accurate, and no wideout is better in converting short passes into long gains than Steve Smith, but if you can?t threaten over the top the defense will clamp down. I like New England?s offensive firepower and sense of desperation. Patriots 29, Panthers 14. Seattle at Houston: Every time I think Seattle has finally righted the ship, they stink up the joint and sink back to near the bottom of the NFL. Every time I think Houston is finally dead and bloated, they spring to life and start smelling like a rose. Both those times are now, and that confluence of events leads me to believe the Texans roll at home. Houston 33, Seattle 10. Diehards and Draftniks games Buffalo at Kansas City: Last Thursday?s game against the Jets shows how a team with an aggressive, talented defensive front can absolutely stymie the Bills offense. Alas, the Chiefs do not have much up front other than OLB Tamba Hali, who is quietly playing at a Pro Bowl level. He?ll make life difficult for Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the Bills will be able to slide protections his way because no other Chief is any threat to rush the passer. Buffalo will also be able to run wild against a defense that just got gashed for 245 on the ground. That puts the game on Matt Cassel and the KC offense. Cassel got yanked in the midst of a miserable performance last week, though his receivers dropping 7 passes didn?t help matters. Defenses are figuring out how to bottle Jamaal Charles, but the Bills sport the worst run defense in the league, giving up nearly 5 yards per carry. Cassel has bounced back nicely from other clunkers this year, and Charles is a great option out of the backfield in the vein of the 2008 Matt Forte. It figures to be cold and windy in KC, and that favors the better ground game. As putrid as Buffalo?s run defense often is, when they don?t have to worry about the deep ball (and they don?t in this game), they can stack the box and slow down the Chiefs. I like the Bills on the road, 21-17. Washington at Oakland: The Inept Overbearing Owner Bowl! The Raiders have new life under reigning AFC Offensive Player of the Week Bruce Gradkowski, who bears a strong stylistic resemblance to Jeff Garcia. You might recall that Oakland had Garcia in camp over the summer, and some pundits (myself included) thought that with Garcia at the helm all year the Raiders could sneak into the playoffs. JaMarcus Russell scuttled all that, but with a competent and fearless QB at the helm, you can see why there was some bullishness. I think the Redskins shot their load last week in the wrenching overtime loss to the Saints, and travelling across the country to play a 4-8 opponent doesn?t exactly get the juices flowing. Oakland rolls 27-13. Detroit at Baltimore: Here?s an opportunity for you gamblers to hit the house hard. The Ravens are 14.5 point favorites on some books, and as poor as the Lions have been, I?m not sure Baltimore is 14.5 points better than anyone right now. Teams have figured out Joe Flacco cannot check down to anyone but Todd Heap or Ray Rice, which has allowed savvy coordinators (see Dom Capers in Green Bay) to switch corners off the wideouts and jump short routes, while also giving extra safety help over the top. It?s put a crimp in Baltimore?s offense, and it is all part of young Flacco?s learning curve. The Ravens are also vulnerable to playmaking wideouts (they rank 28th in pass plays allowed of 20 yards or more), and the Lions have one of the best in Calvin Johnson. As much as I respect Matt Stafford, this is a great chance to play Daunte Culpepper, who can still throw 50-yard strike as well as any QB in the league. Don?t get me wrong, the Lions have very little chance of winning this game without forcing a lot of turnovers, not exactly their forte. But they should be able to score on the Ravens, and I just don?t think Baltimore can beat them by more than two TDs. Ray Rice might have something to say about that, but I see the Ravens winning 30-21. St. Louis at Tennessee: At full strength the Rams might be able to give the still-surging Titans a competitive game. But this Rams team just lost O.J. Atogwe, far and away their best player in the secondary; Kyle Boller will start in place of Marc Bulger at QB again, backed up by two D-II rookies; #2 overall draft pick Jason Smith is out with a concussion; #1 WR Donnie Avery, who inherited that role when both Laurent Robinson and Keenan Burton went down, is playing with a separated shoulder that prevents him from extending his arm above his head; #2 RB Mike Karney is likely out again with a neck injury. By contrast, the Titans are one of the healthiest teams in the league and won?t be taken aback by their humbling loss to the Colts. 9-7 will still earn the #6 seed in the AFC, and Tennessee stays in that race by pounding the hapless Rams 32-13.