Last week: 8-5, making the season forecast 74-29. ESPN recently produced a nice one-hour documentary on the USFL. I enjoyed the piece and it was great to reminisce with many of the key players and highlights. But a couple of things bothered me, as someone who did my senior history thesis on why the USFL failed. For dramatic purposes, the piece framed the USFL as a tug-of-war between John Bassett and Donald Trump, prominent owners with very divergent agendas. Trump certainly was the preeminent villain in terms of escalating salaries and forcing the move from Spring to Fall, but he was far from alone. Bassett makes the ideal sympathetic hero, a people-friendly magnate dying of cancer, but he shares some of the blame in the league?s demise. Many struggling franchises needed real help to stay afloat in poor stadiums and novice fan bases (San Antonio, Portland, Arizona), but Bassett believed in fair market play, leading to mergers that confused and alienated fans and damaged league credibility and viability. They were the figureheads of the deeply divided ownership groups, but they were far from the only central players in both the rise and fall of the USFL. Don?t get me wrong, it?s still a great work that every football fan should watch. Just bear in mind that it?s overly dramatically framed, and Donald Trump (too willing to play along) is almost caricatured as the steamroller that flattened the league. When I interviewed several players, coaches, and owners in 1995 about why they thought the league failed, Trump was viewed more as the straw that broke the camel?s back, not the straw that stirred the toxic drink. Minnesota (5) at Green Bay (11): This is apparently the only game ESPN is allowed to talk about this week for some reason... The bottom line for me in this game comes down to offensive line play. Green Bay?s OL has been just brutal, but they did show signs of improvement last week against a decent Browns front. Minnesota?s defensive front four is the best in football, however, and that means trouble for the Packers. On the flip side, I like how the Packers own defensive front has been playing, and their speed can give the behemoth Vikings line some issues of their own. That means it?s up to which offense can do more under duress. I?ll take Adrian Peterson over Ryan Grant 100 times out of 100 in that fight, even though I think Aaron Rodgers can--and will-- outgun Brett Favre. Here?s hoping that the Packers faithful give Favre the respect he deserves for giving them so much success after years of futility. Favre wins in Lambeau Field...while wearing purple. Vikings 30, Packers 28. Denver (3) at Baltimore (15): One of the great questions this year is how these Broncos are 6-0. The easiest answer: they?re not bad at anything and they don?t make mistakes. Contrast that with the ?darlings? in Baltimore, who continually shoot themselves in the feet with coverage breakdowns, blown run blocks, and asinine penalties, resulting in a 3-3 record that leaves them teetering on the precipice of playoff outsiders already. If they don?t beat themselves, Baltimore at home is good enough to win this game. Added bonus in the Ravens column: it?s Halloween weekend in Baltimore, home of Edgar Allan Poe, author of the fantastic story ?The Raven?. Read that at halftime of a Baltimore 20-16 win. Atlanta (13) at New Orleans (1): This is one of the NFL?s better rivalries, and this meeting is pretty much the last chance Atlanta has of keeping the Saints from running away with the NFC South before November starts. Dallas did a great job exploiting the holes in the Falcons defense, something that Sean Payton no doubt studied carefully. He has the horses to exploit those same weaknesses, and the great New Orleans OL should give Drew Brees plenty of time and clean passing lanes to make it happen. The Saints have won the last five meetings in New Orleans itself, and they run that to six while essentially icing the NFC South. New Orleans 34, Atlanta 23. San Francisco (22) at Indianapolis (2): Earlier this week I wrote about the silver lining that San Francisco can take from last week?s loss with the play of Alex Smith. Funny thing about silver in clouds though; adding silver to clouds actually produces rain, as the Chinese so vividly demonstrated in their quest to keep the Olympics rain-free by seeding the clouds to the west of Beijing. It normally doesn?t rain indoors, but the Colts are playing better than ever and are precisely the type of lead in the balloon that San Fran doesn?t need right now. Indy keeps the 49ers slide going down with a 33-17 home victory. NY Giants (8) at Philadelphia (12): Huge game in the NFC East, and it comes at a bad time for the reeling Giants, losers of two straight. Last season the Eagles had Eli Manning?s number, and with Manning not real sharp lately they figure to have some success again defensively. My primary concern for the G-Men is their ability to snuff out the big play, something these Eagles rely heavily upon to score. With their secondary still struggling and the Eagles OL stabilizing, I think DeSean Jackson or LeSean McCoy can break a couple of big ones. That should be enough for Philadelphia to win the football side of the World Series matchup. Eagles 24, Giants 20. St. Louis (32) at Detroit (26): This is probably the best chance for the Rams to win a game, avoiding the fate of last year?s Lions and taking the collar for the season. It won?t be easy, with the host Lions coming off a bye and much healthier than they have been all season. The Rams, alas, are not very healthy--and not very good even when they are. The Lions are favored by 3.5 points, their largest margin as a favorite in over 2 years. Give the points; these Rams have scored just 60 points in 7 games and sport the worst OL this side of Green Bay. Detroit 27, St. Louis 13. Cleveland (29) at Chicago (21): These teams lost by a combined score of 76-13 last Sunday, but there is blowout written all over this one too. The Cleveland offense is terrible, scoring just four touchdowns all year. QB Derek Anderson has completed just over a third of his passes the last three weeks, and has completed consecutive passes just three times in that span (including his first five last week). Chicago may have some serious issues, but the Browns are ill-equipped to exploit them. Jay Cutler should have a huge day with his elusive receivers running wild against the team that ranks dead last in allowing yards after the catch over the last month. Chicago 37, Cleveland 10. Carolina (27) at Arizona (6): Carolina has a growing QB controversy, or rather Carolina would have a growing QB controversy if they had anyone legit to replace Mr. INT Jake Delhomme. For as good as the Panthers OL is and as great of a 1-2 RB punch as they have, it all unravels quickly when the passing game is more likely to turn the ball over (13 INTs) than produce a big play (12 passes over 20 yards, 5 of which came in the same game). The Cardinals defense plays with the same create-your-own-opportunism that Coach Whisenhunt saw personally in Pittsburgh. The playoff game in Carolina last year began the unraveling for Delhomme, and I just don?t see much chance for redemption in this one. Arizona 20, Carolina 17 in my survivor fantasy pick of the week. Seattle (23) at Dallas (10): Welcome to the Miles Austin show! The Cowboys receiver has burst upon the scene with over 400 yards and 4 TDs in his last two games, giving Tony Romo the legit big-play receiver he needs. That?s real bad news for Seattle, which has major injury issues on defense even after their bye week. This is a bit of a trap game for Dallas, which waxed a good Atlanta team last week and travels to PHI and GB in the coming weeks. That worries me a little, but more in terms of the 9.5 point spread. If Seattle had even average special teams this could be an upset, but their coverage and return units are all near the bottom. That means field position for a Dallas offense that is really clicking right now. Cowboys roll 30-13. Houston (14) at Buffalo (20): I had a friend in high school who loved to use the expression, ?just when you thought it was safe...? That applies here to the Bills, who have saved Dick Jauron?s hide by being less egregious than their opponent two weeks in a row. So just when you think it?s safe to say the Bills are back from the dead, along comes the Houston Texans. Led by legit MVP candidate Matt Schaub and fantastic rookie LB Brian Cushing, Houston appears to have turned the corner and learned how to win. That trumps the Bills acumen for just knowing how not to lose. Texans win on the road 32-17. Miami (17) at NY Jets (18): Didn?t these teams just play? Grudge matches so close together are always hard to forecast, because the memories of the last one are so fresh...and largely irrelevant. Miami won that game by pounding the Jets defense and throwing over it while QB Chad Henne had all day to survey the field. Expect the Jets to come up with a different plan of attack to get pressure. One of the issues with Miami is that there?s really not much they do different from week to week, what you see is what you get. If they can successfully adapt some countermeasures they should be fine, but that?s not their strong suit; the Dolphins rank 20th in point differential after halftime, normally a good harbinger of in-game malleability. I expect a close game with several lead changes, and the Jets wind up taking the last one of those. New York 26, Miami 24. Oakland (24) at San Diego (16): I?d love to offer some in-depth wisdom to break down this game, but these two teams are about as schizophrenic as Sybil, which makes them near impossible to forecast. If the Chargers and Raiders teams that showed up last weekend meet here, San Diego wins by about 40, but take the squads from the week before and the Raiders triumph. The Chargers have a greater ability to win without their ?A? game than the Raiders, who are as bad as any team in the league when they don?t bring theirs. Chargers 28, Raiders 10 in a pick with lower confidence than you might expect. Jacksonville (19) at Tennessee (30): I had written a nice little blurb about how it was high time people stopped overrating the 0-6 Titans, then along came the news that Vince Young will start at quarterback. That changes my thinking on this one. I initially thought the Titans could rally off their bye week and have an effective gameplan against a Jacksonville team that runs very hot and cold. But with Young at the controls, the Tennessee offense becomes almost completely one-dimensional until Young proves he can beat even a high school team, or his own team?s wretched pass defense, with his arm. This marks the latest in the season that a winless team is favored over a team that is at least .500 in NFL history, although the change to Young dropped the line from 3.5 to 1.5 almost immediately. The bookies know, and I?m listening...Jacksonville 29, Tennessee 24. Byes: Washington (25), Cincinnati (7), Pittsburgh (9), New England (4), Tampa Bay (31), Kansas City (28) Drinking in the Dorm Room Games 3-2 last week, 26-14 on the season. Oregon 22, USC 20. This game decides the PAC-10 rep in the BCS, and I?ll take the home team against a freshman QB. Texas 40, Oklahoma State 30. This is one of those games where the Cowboys can certainly win, but I?ll believe it when I see it. Florida 30, Georgia 10. In Tebow we Trust. Auburn 21, Ole Miss 20 Central Michigan 36, Boston College 34. Had the Chips not stumbled in their opener, this win would have solidified them as BCS-bowl worthy to some.