Last Week: listen for the drum roll...14-2! And one of my misses was the SF/NYJ game in which I told you to take the points and run. 130-77-1 on the season. Last weekend was a wonderful time to be snowed in here on the shores of Lake Michigan. The lake effect snow machine dumped close to 2 feet of snow on my doorstep from Friday night to Sunday afternoon, snow that will likely remain here until March. This weekend the weather could once again play a factor in the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions, though as I write this it?s snowing in New Orleans. I feel compelled to once again dispel a common myth: slippery conditions do not favor the defense. It?s simple really, and you can watch a hockey game for proof if you happen to live where ice only comes out of your freezer: the offensive player knows which direction he is heading, the defender is reacting to that. It?s easier to go with authority and momentum than to plant off a slippery surface in reaction to that move. That is especially true of receivers making cuts and interior linemen in run blocking. The Game That Nobody Sees New Orleans (18) at Chicago (17): The Thursday nighter that you almost certainly won?t be able to watch is the very epitome of home field advantage. It?s going to be cold, snowy, but most importantly windy in Chicago. The Saints precision passing game can handle cold and probably snow, but throwing the ball in 25-35 MPH winds is near impossible. I also like the downhill running of Matt Forte for the Bears, as the Saints handle east-west runners well but typically get gashed by north-south rushing attacks. These Bears are often a vastly superior team at home, and they have the confidence in knowing they?ve manhandled this team two years in a row in Soldier Field in December or January. Bears 31, Saints 20. Washington (20) at Cincinnati (31): Why on earth have the Bengals not put Carson Palmer on IR? That Palmer is even thinking about coming back and playing this season is asinine. I commend him for his heart but condemn his judgment. Washington keeps the playoff flame flickering with a 23-13 road win. Tennessee (2) at Houston (19): The Texans are brimming with confidence and fighting hard to finish 8-8. The Titans have rebounded from their lone loss by whipping bad Cleveland and worst-ever Detroit 75-19. Houston doesn?t have any answer for the defensive line pressure of the Titans, and the Smash and Dash package of Lendale White and Chris Johnson should find good room to run and catch out of the backfield. The Titans have little to play for and might be saving themselves for the final two games against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. I think Houston catches them and pulls out a 26-24 surprise. Detroit (32) at Indianapolis (6): Two bright spots for Detroit: Cliff Avril and Kevin Smith. The rookies have both shown they are legit NFL difference-makers, and Avril is easily a more explosive pass rusher than any of the 1st round DEs taken above him. Now the Lions only need about 30 more guys with the skill and effort of these two...Colts 37, Lions 12. San Francisco (21) at Miami (16): The iffy status of Frank Gore really clouds this forecast, because the Niners are forced to be too one-dimensional without him. Miami?s defense will eat the SF OL alive if the threat of the run is gone. They just might do that anyways. Look for Dolphins rookie WR Davone Bess to have a nice game, as the Niners have problems covering secondary receivers with his sort of skills and Chad Pennington knows the perfect time to deliver the ball. Dolphins 20-13. Green Bay (22) at Jacksonville (27): Two out-of-it disappointment teams with one stark difference: the Packers are still playing hard but just don?t have the horses, while the Jaguars are playing very much like a team trying to get their coach fired. I?ll take effort over underachieving talent every given Sunday. Packers 30, Jaguars 17. San Diego (23) at Kansas City (28): And the bookies have learned! In the first meeting between these two, the Chargers were 14.5 point favorites and held on for dear life as the Chiefs missed a game-winning 2pt conversion on the last play. This time the spread is just 5.5, and I think that?s still too high against a Chiefs team that has covered 6 of the last 7 despite only winning once. They?re good enough to keep games close but not good enough to win those close games, very similar to the 2007 Dolphins. Herm Edwards likes that thought. Chargers 28, Chiefs 27. Tampa Bay (7) at Atlanta (14): You probably watched Tampa?s vaunted defense eviscerated by the Panthers on Monday night, and logically that would portend trouble with Michael Turner and the Falcons. But these Bucs bounce back from losses as well as anyone, and the veteran-laden defense will rebound with a vengeance. Flipping the coin, can Jeff Garcia handle Jon Abraham and a plucky Falcons defense? I?m not confident that he?ll put up the kind of numbers he did on MNF, but his improvisational chutzpah should find just enough success against a young secondary that will have to maintain positional integrity a lot longer than normal. The wild card here is Roddy White, who will have his chances to break some of those deep ins and mid-range drags for big plays against a Tampa secondary that has a nasty proclivity for losing guys just behind the LBs. Vegas has this game as a dead heat as well, with the home team giving just the customary 3 points. With very little confidence, Tampa wins 27-25. Buffalo (25) at New York Jets (10): The confidence game pick o? the week for more reasons than I care to list here. Jets cruise 33-10. Denver (11) at Carolina (4): Denver is pulling off one of the ultimate smoke-and-mirrors seasons. They rank near the bottom in turnover ratio (-11), are in the bottom 5 in nearly every defensive statistic, have a negative point differential (-20), and they rank 31st in both FG accuracy and return yardage differential. Yet here they sit at 8-5 and an AFC West crown. That makes them incredibly lucky, and you don?t typically fare well against very good teams, which Carolina is, relying so heavily on luck and pluck. In most cases I would expect a team coming off such an emotional MNF win to have a letdown, but these Panthers are very much a ?one week at a time? team. This one could be an offensive show, and the matchup between superb rookie LT Ryan Clady and resurgent All Pro DE Julius Peppers offers lots of intrigue. The forecast models indicate the FG issues for the Broncos will doom them in this one. Carolina 36, Denver 31. Seattle (29) at St. Louis (30): The only reason to pay attention here is for draftnik purposes. The loser likely wraps up the 3rd overall pick in the upcoming draft, while the winner likely surges to the 5th slot, perhaps higher if this sorry matchup serves as a springboard. That will mean more in the 2nd-4th rounds than it does in the 1st round of this draft. The Rams haven?t scored more than one offensive TD in a game since they shocked the Romo-less Cowboys in Week 7, and the Seahawks defense has shown more life lately. That should be enough for a 24-13 Seattle win. Late Sunday Games Pittsburgh (3) at Baltimore (5): If you like defense, this is the game for you! The winner will likely be the team that can manufacture a big play or two in the face of those defenses. That tilts the scales towards the Steelers, who were dead in the water last week against Dallas until Big Ben found Santonio Holmes on 3rd & long. But I?m just not sure Roethlisberger can limit the turnovers with Ed Reed playing like the league MVP for Baltimore, and I do like the Ravens OL better in pass protection. However, sometimes you have to go with your gut. I went into writing this fully expecting to pick the Ravens, but I kept having visions of the Steelers winning thanks to Troy Polamalu and a late FG. Pittsburgh 16, Baltimore 13. Minnesota (8) at Arizona (9): Two variables in this contest make an accurate forecast real ponderous. How well do the Cardinals handle clinching a playoff berth last week? It?s not like they have any experience in that matter. The other is the real toughie, though. The Vikings will already know if the Bears won or lost, meaning they could clinch a division title with a win, or need a road win against a playoff team to keep pace with the Bears. They still have the cloud of the pending suspensions of the Williams Wall to deal with as well, not to mention Gus Frerotte?s back injury, which the team is playing real close to the vest. That?s just too many questions in purple, and the Cardinals barely try to run the ball anyways, which stymies the strength of the Vikings. Arizona solidifies the #3 seed in the NFC with a 27-23 home win. New England (13) at Oakland (26): This should be a laugher, but a couple of mitigating circumstances lead me to believe the Raiders have a shot. Pats QB Matt Cassel lost his father this week and left the team Tuesday. They expect him back for the game, but it?s hard to predict how anyone responds to such a personal loss. The Patriots are also down to luring Junior Seau out of mothballs to play LB, with Adalius Thomas and Tedy Bruschi both gone for the season. Oakland has the ability to run the ball with a variety of backs, and with so much missing from the primary run stopping force, the Raiders just might be able to run enough to scare the Pats. I?ll take the easy way out: New England wins, but the Raiders cover the 7.5 point spread. Patriots 20, Raiders 17. New York Giants (1) at Dallas (12): The prevailing wisdom here is that the Cowboys are a team in desperate must-win mode, and it seems like most pundits expect that to carry them to victory over a Giants team with little to play for. But that ignores a couple of obvious observations. These Cowboys, and more specifically Tony Romo, have a rather lengthy recent history of choking like Jose Mesa in ?playoff? games. What have we seen every time their backs are to the wall? Failure and dissension. And the Giants are not the kind of team to not play 100%, certainly not as coached by Tom Coughlin. But these Giants are wounded, with no Plaxico and perhaps no Brandon Jacobs (seen limping badly at an autograph signing Tuesday night). Dallas is good enough to take down a New York team minus its top two weapons, but I?ll believe the Cowboys win a game like these only after I first see them do it once. Giants 24, Cowboys 20. Monday Night Football Cleveland (24) at Philadelphia (15): The only two teams to beat the Giants this season square off in the Monday nighter. But this Browns team only vaguely resembles the one that blew out the Super Bowl champs all those Mondays ago. Ken Dorsey answers the question, ?Can it get any worse than Brodie Croyle at QB?? with a resounding yes, and the Browns inconsistent defense has to play almost perfectly every snap to compensate. That unit has looked very good in the two MNF games this year, but the Eagles have far too much to play for at home to slip up here. Or do they--just when you think these Eagles have finally flipped the switch to full power, they lay a giant stinky egg. This is not the lock you probably think it is, but my forecast models favor the Eagles 9 times out of 10. Philly 26, Cleveland 17. College Bowl preview, Part I coming Monday. There is a bowl confidence pick game at ESPN.com that has a RealGM.com group if you wish to compete against myself and several message board regulars. It?s free and fun! Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com