Every home team won last week, a freakish anomaly that is very unlikely to repeat itself this weekend. I went 2-2 last week, hitting the NFC games right on but swinging and missing on both AFC contests. Houston at Baltimore: This is the one game of the weekend that features two teams that relied on more traditional football to get to this point. Running the ball, stopping the run, sacking the quarterback, conservatively mixing in the passing game, avoiding turnovers, those are the hallmarks of both teams here, and it makes forecasting a winner tricky. I suspect this game will come down to which quarterback does less damage to all of the above. Joe Flacco is more experienced, stronger armed, and has proven he can guide Baltimore to playoff victory. TJ Yates is a 5th round rookie playing on a team that has never been in the playoffs before. That alone tilts the field quite solidly towards the Ravens. Flacco is an interesting study here. He has grown more vocal and cocksure this season, but his play noticeably declined in 2011 despite getting a boost from a 1st round wideout in Torrey Smith and improved play by his 2nd year tight ends, Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. Flacco's accuracy was much worse, falling from 62.5 percent to 57.5 percent. He threw more interceptions with fewer touchdowns, and he fumbled more frequently despite being sacked 25 percent less often. In short, he went from being a slightly above-average QB to a slightly below-average QB. Yet his more assertive leadership and commanding presence are clearly positive developments for both Flacco and the Ravens. This Baltimore team has won in spite of him in the playoffs the past few seasons, but those games were on the road. This one is at home, where he has been much better. Because the Texans won't threaten to light up the scoreboard against Ed Reed, T-Sizzle and the veteran Ravens D, Flacco can simply manage the game. Handing the ball to Ray Rice more than 20 times would be a wise idea. Avoiding the sack/fumble or the INT thrown directly to the middle linebacker that he never saw would also help Flacco here. I expect the Texans defense to be very game and keep the score close. But I'll rely on the Ravens defense and Joe Flacco's playoff experience, sour as it's been, to triumph at home. Ravens 20, Texans 16 New Orleans at San Francisco: There are a multitude of reasons to love the Saints here, even though the game is outside in San Francisco. -- The Saints are red hot, having crushed Detroit last week. Their offense is putting up ridiculous numbers, averaging a freakish 9.1 yards per play over the last month (counting last week). By way of comparison, the best four-game stretch for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers amazing offense this year is 8.1. Darren Sproles has been the catalyst, but Drew Brees has really taken it to another level lately. In that four-game stretch he is averaging an unprecedented 9.9 yards per attempt. That's right, every time he drops back, the Saints essentially get a first down. The Niners D is good, but not that good. -- The Niners rely very heavily on creating turnovers to score points. I don't think Brees will give them the ball more than once, and maybe the special teams create a turnover. That means long fields for the San Francisco offense. Cranking out long drives is not something the Niners do particularly well, ranking 31st in 3rd down conversions. When they do get one, they struggle to cash it in, ranking 30th in red zone touchdown percentage. David Akers kicking four 30-something yard field goals is not going to keep up with the Saints. -- Frank Gore has slowed considerably from the fast start. He has just seven runs of more than 10 yards in the last six games. Take away the 37-yarder in the Arizona loss and Gore averaged 3.3 yards per carry since the Thanksgiving game against the Ravens. He got almost half his yards in a five-game stretch against below league-average run defenses in Detroit, Tampa, Philly, Washington, and Cleveland. The Saints run D has perked up a little recently, but here's why I really like them: when they have the lead, opponents yards per carry drops from 5.2 to 3.6. That means Alex Smith is going to have to outgun Drew Brees. Ponder that statement hard when evaluating the Niners chances… -- There is a strange but pervasive history of teams that unexpectedly rose up and finished 13-3 laying ostrich eggs in their playoff game. Look no further than last year's Falcons, who got blown out by a more dynamic and playoff-experienced team despite playing at home with the bye. It happened to the 2009 Chargers, the 2008 Titans, the 2007 Cowboys, the 2006 Ravens, the 2003 Chiefs and the 2001 Bears. As a proud owner of a history degree from Ohio University, I'm trained to know the difference between freakish coincidences and historical trends. Ladies and gentlemen, this is a trend. -- New Orleans has the best OL in football. I love Justin Smith and the 49ers backers but they've got their work cut out for them here. They just stymied a Lions front that ranked 7th in QB pressures/attempt. The Niners ranked 14th in that stat, though their sack percentage was higher than Detroit's. I think Brees will have time, and I think the Niners will struggle to cover both Sproles and Graham and still maintain deep field coverage integrity. New Orleans has the kind of weapons that can crack even the best defenses, and that's what happens here. New Orleans 34, San Francisco 13. New York Giants at Green Bay: Most of the media is focusing on the strong resemblance between this year's Giants team and the G-Men that surprisingly rolled though the playoffs in 2007, including a victory over the Packers along the way. Much like this year, that Giants team started strong before a November swoon left them struggling just to make the playoffs. It took a close loss to an undefeated juggernaut of a team (New England that year, Green Bay this year) to snap them out of it. There's even an inexplicably awful late loss to the woeful Ethnic Slurs both seasons. I would argue this year's edition is even better than that Super Bowl winning team, because now Eli Manning has better weapons at his disposal in the passing game and the defensive front has Jason Pierre-Paul, the most impactful front four pass rusher in the league right now. Plus, New York has the experience of climbing the mountain before. They know what they are up against, and they are stronger for it. Conveniently ignored in that argument and comparison is the Green Bay side of the ledger. This Packers team is vastly different from the one the Giants beat in what was Brett Favre's final game in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers just had the best season QB rating in NFL history and he did so by being ruthlessly consistent and lethally accurate. Greg Jennings is a more developed #1 wideout now, although he hasn't played in over a month. Jordy Nelson has become a dynamic secondary option. This Packers offensive line is probably better, although injuries have caused some recent shuffling which could make cohesion a problem. That Packers team was 13-3, this one is 15-1. The difference seems fairly trivial but it's actually quite significant. In 2007 the Packers were not clearly and definitively the best team in football like they are this year, and this offense has been more efficient and unstoppable. Alas, that Packers team could play some defense. And that is what I think is the downfall for the Cheeseheads here--defense. The anemic pass rush, which is almost exclusively Clay Matthews, has caused ripple effects: corner Tramon Williams, arguably the playoff MVP last year, has been awful. His decline is reminiscent of the dramatic falloff of Mike Jenkins in Dallas a couple years ago; Williams just gave up the most yardage allowed by a corner in any season in NFL history. The other top corner, Charles Woodson, is still making big plays but also giving up a lot more than in years past. Their safety play since Nick Collins went down has been largely inadequate with sporadic thrusts of competence. They have the worst defensive end package of any 3-4 front team in the league, and where Dom Capers so masterfully mixed up different looks a year ago, this year his combinations and formations have been more predictable and stoppable. Package this entire defensive decline with the improved Giants passing attack, and I like the Giants' chances. And even though I doubt it impacts Rodgers--the most mentally sharp game prep guy in the league--much, the fact he hasn't played since Christmas could cause timing issues with the receivers. In a game where every possession is precious, Green Bay cannot afford one of those 2010 Rodgers lulls, where he would have a series or three where the Oh by the way, these teams have met in Green Bay since that oft-cited 2007 playoff with a much more relevant cast of characters. The day after Christmas in 2010, the Packers annihilated the Giants 45-17 in a game where New York turned the ball over 6 times. That was essentially a playoff game for both teams as well; the Packers needed the win to keep up with the Buccaneers (!?) while the Giants had a chance to nudge back ahead of the Eagles a week after the Desean Jackson punt return fiasco cost the Giants control of their own destiny. While some might think that indicates the Packers have a huge advantage, I go with the “payback is a bitch” philosophy. That loss cost the Giants the playoff spot that the Packers rode to a Super Bowl championship, and you'd better believe it's still fresh in Tom Coughlin's mind. Against all expectations, the New York defense does just enough to carry the Giants to the unexpected road win. Giants 38, Packers 36 Denver at New England: Another rematch of a December game, and the New England game marked the first time that the rest of the Broncos played poorly with Tebow under center. Tebow himself wasn't all that bad, but this was also a major instance where his limitations were exposed; he could not keep up in a shootout, certainly not with Tom Brady throwing to Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker et al. Tebow's supporting cast played much better against Pittsburgh last week for the first three quarters before Pittsburgh thrived in desperation mode. But that was against a brutally short-handed Pittsburgh team with few healthy bodies anywhere. New England is rested and fairly healthy, the immense benefit of a bye week. These Patriots are hungry for a playoff win to break their somewhat inexplicable drought, and their defense has quietly improved a little since turning backup WR Julian Edelman essentially into the nickel corner. Obviously I cannot ignore the story line of the Tebow magic. And given the recent slow starts by the Patriots, falling behind 21-0 to Buffalo and 17-0 to Miami, a repeat of Tebow Time is not out of the question. New England must come out and seize control of the game or else they risk becoming the latest and most prominent victims of the cultural phenomenon. It doesn't matter if you or I believe in it; what matters is if the Broncos and Patriots players believe in it. Denver most certainly does, and that's why they have more of a chance than you or I might expect. I suspect that Bill Belichick has been around long enough to throw some credence into it as well, and he can help guide his team to prevent it. They accomplished that mission quite nicely in the first meeting last month, and I think they will do so again. New England 30, Denver 20 - Send your draft questions, exotic tequila recipes, and literate critiques to Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com