Week 1 is always the toughest forecast because the surprise teams have yet to reveal themselves. It?s also one of the most likely weeks for a big upset for a variety of reasons: teams come out flat, weeks of opponent-specific game planning, sloppy special teams. I always gun for 8-8 in the first week and take the money and run. The analysis for this week is also quite brief, a function of my moving across the country and just not having time to write lengthy breakdowns. Minnesota at New Orleans--Most years the defending Super Bowl champ is the focus of intense pressure and media attention, but the Saints are more below the radar than any returning champ since the Vermiel Rams. That team brought almost everyone back and had a great follow-up season, and it was similarly designed: high-octane but balanced offense, great OL, opportunistic defense. I think the Saints absolutely can make it back to the Super Bowl, and it starts here with a win over the Vikings, who have issues with the passing offense thanks to injuries and a certain #4 holding out until the middle of august. New Orleans 31, Minnesota 20. Cincinnati at New England--I picked this in my ?32 Fearless Predictions? as my AFC Championship matchup. I like the Bengals defense and how they can mix up coverages with the best secondary you haven?t heard about. I also like T.Ocho (hell yes I?ll watch!) against one of the worst secondaries of any team with playoff aspirations. Cincinnati 33, New England 27. Dallas at Washington--Nothing like a heated rivalry to kick things off! Hard to figure what the Redskins are going to do in Mike Shanahan?s debut, not to mention a (possibly) gimpy Donovan McNabb. The Cowboys have been unusually quiet lately, something that makes me believe they are more focused than ever and won?t slip up here. Dallas 24, Washington 13, but with very low confidence. Baltimore at New York Jets--I?m crediting this pick to a gambling tip-meister whose newsletter I somehow receive. When the team that was on this current season of Hard Knocks plays an alumnus of the show, they are 7-1 against the spread and 6-2 straight up. I think the Ravens are far and away the better team, but I know when to ride a hot pony. Revis Island will be fine in a Jets 23-14 home win. Green Bay at Philadelphia--It sure seems like balls will be flying all over Philadelphia, as both teams have potent passing attacks and shaky pass defenses. I trust Philly?s pass rush more than the Packers?, and I also trust their ability to run the ball a little better. Hard to go against the Eagles at home. Philly 31, Green Bay 28. Atlanta at Pittsburgh--One of two things is going to happen here. Pittsburgh is either going to come out with guns blazing and annihilate the Falcons with supreme effort and defensive pressure to show they have Big Ben?s back, or they?re going to struggle against 8-man fronts and be a step late in getting to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. At home in the opener, I like the former. Pittsburgh cruises 27-10. Indianapolis at Houston--There are just certain givens in life that you come to accept as necessary for harmonious balance in the universe. You will die, you will pay taxes, and the Colts will beat the Texans. Indy flies to a 36-20 win over the Cushing-less Texans. Carolina at New York Giants--The Panthers absolutely creamed the G-Men in the final game at Giants Stadium last year, and I would expect more of the same...if RT Jeff Otah were healthy. But he isn?t, and I?m not sure that Carolina can run so effectively without him. I also like Eli Manning to have a good day against a questionable pass rush and a radically overhauled Panthers D. Giants win 20-16. Cleveland at Tampa Bay--If the Jake Delhomme that played in the preseason shows up here for Cleveland, they are clearly the better team. I think the Browns defense is going to be a lot better than most pundits expect, and that will carry them here unless Delhomme throws 3 or more INTs...which is certainly in the realm of possibility with Aqib Talib and Ronde Barber at corner for Tampa. Cleveland is the hesitant pick, 20-17. Denver at Jacksonville--Jacksonville is one of those teams that could really surprise people this year if they can come together on defense. I like the home cooking even though I do think Broncos QB Kyle Orton is going to turn some heads this year. Beware the fluky Denver luck in openers, as their last two opening games have turned on once-in-a-lifetime plays. Jacksonville 23, Denver 20. San Francisco at Seattle--Niners fans think I am unnecessarily negative about their team, so here?s a bone for y?all: this is my lead pipe lock, ultra-guaranteed, easy pickings game of the week. The Niners have way too much defensive firepower for a Seattle line that will struggle to be adequate on its best days, and this early in the season will not be anything close to their best day. Niners 20, Seahawks 6 to rain on Pete Carroll?s debut. Detroit at Chicago--I?m a lifelong Lions fan and I haven?t been this optimistic about my team since Barry Sanders, Herman Moore, and Chris Spielman were in their collective primes. Yet I?m just not sure it will translate into a whole lot more wins, and this week is a good example. The Bears are a major variable, but they always tend to annihilate the Lions at home. As long as Jay Cutler gets time, Chicago will roll here. Bet the over in a Chicago 37-30 home victory. San Diego at Kansas City--If Kansas City had any help for Tamba Hali in rushing the passer at all, I?d like them here. But their LB corps is going to have a real hard time with Philip Rivers and rookie RB Ryan Mathews, and GM Scott Pioli has to quit giving away quality safeties when he?s got nothing in reserve. Antonio Gates loves the Jarrad Page trade, and I love the Chargers on the road. San Diego 33, Kansas City 21. Oakland at Tennessee--This is an under-the-radar game that I?m actually really looking forward to watching. I can?t wait to see rookie LB Rolando McClain and a very fast Oakland defense match up against Chris Johnson and a Tennessee offense that looks like it might have trouble throwing the ball. I think the Titans defense gets to Jason Campbell, or his replacement, enough to hold on for a close win. Tennessee 20, Oakland 17. Miami at Buffalo--Nothing I?ve seen from Buffalo this offseason leads me to waver from my prediction that they will have the 1st pick in the next draft, not even CJ Spiller?s anticipated instant impact. I?m bullish on the Dolphins and Chad Henne making a big leap forward this year, and their young secondary should have fun in this one. Having said that, Buffalo always seems to be in very close openers so I?m a little cautious. Miami 26, Buffalo 24. Arizona at St. Louis--This is a winnable matchup for Sam Bradford & Co. as long as they can avoid tuning the ball over. I expect a low-scoring defensive battle, though that?s more a function of offenses that can?t throw the ball reliably. I?ll take the Rams at home to reward the new owner. St. Louis 18, Arizona 16. Drinking in the Dorm Room games Michigan 33, Notre Dame 26 Ohio State 20, Miami 8 South Carolina 24, Georgia 20 Florida State 36, Oklahoma 31 Alabama 27, Penn State 17 Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com