April 2022 - Detroit Lions Wiretap
The Detroit Lions traded up with the Minnesota Vikings to get the No. 12 pick and take Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams.
Detroit sent picks No. 32, No. 34 and No. 66 to Minnesota for picks No. 12 and No. 46.
Williams suffered a torn ACL in the College Football National Championship Game, so it's unclear when he'll debut as a rookie.
It’s officially draft day and rumors are flying left and right, which means the markets are now as sharp as they’re going to be. Since the combine, we’ve seen Travon Walker go from not even listed as an option to go first overall to now being a heavy (-300 at most shops) favorite to go to the Jags to start the night.
A consensus from the major draft community has now been established and we’re up against it in terms of weighing out recent intel versus what we’ve thought for the bulk of draft season. Even if there aren’t the obvious values out there the way they were earlier in the month, there are still some edges to be found.
The Jets have two picks in the top 10 (4, 10) and we’re focusing on No.4 here. I’m expecting three defenders to come off the board with the first three picks, meaning that New York could have the pick of the litter at tackle. There’s a sense that the Jets are enamored with Jermaine Johnson out of Florida State, but if all of Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal and Charles Cross are all available, can they really pass that up? You can also get D-Line/EDGE at +125 for the Jets if that’s more your speed.
FanDuel stipulates that these bets are tied to NFL.com’s position classification. Well, Jordan Davis should be there at 14 and there’s no doubt about where he’s lining up. George Karlaftis is listed as an EDGE and is likely in consideration as well. You can get the same bet at DraftKings with the EDGE detail baked into the bet for +150 so there’s better value on FanDuel in this instance. Devonte Wyatt could also be in play. With Calais Campbell getting up there in age and Derek Wolfe’s a durability concern, the Ravens are likely targeting D-Line with their first pick.
This hinges on things unfolding in a very particular fashion but it remains within the realm of possibility. Let’s assume that Walker/Hutchinson go 1-2 and Derek Stingley or Kayvon Thibodeaux go to the Texans at 3. That leaves the aforementioned Jets with all of the offensive linemen available. Our sense is that it’s Ekwonu, especially if Stingley is gone.
Then, the Giants would have to try and guess what the Panthers would do at 1.6 provided they keep the pick. Carolina would likely be in the market for a quarterback or offensive lineman, so the Giants figure to go o-line at five and circle back to corner at seven with Sauce given that the Panthers just spent a top 10 pick on a corner last year. Again, there’s a reason this bet is a longshot; so much can happen in those first four picks and with Carolina, but it’s feasible enough to be worth consideration at 13/1 odds.
There’s so much working against Metchie as a second-rounder that I’m stunned to see his over/under in this range. Metchie is several notches below the other Alabama receivers of recent memory and is coming off an ACL tear in December. Unlike Jameson Williams, whose athleticism is beyond a doubt even if he was unable to test at the combine, Metchie’s lack of measurables could work against him because the film does not show him to be overly explosive or shifty.
At least 10 receivers should be off the board at this stage of the second, and relative sleepers like Alec Pierce, Jalen Tolbert, Khalil Shakir or Wan’Dale Robinson could all be higher than Metchie on big boards for most teams. I’d sooner project Metchie in the fourth than the second.
The teams in the cornerback market start to dry up once we get into the early 20s. We can assume Derek Stingley Jr. and Ahmad Gardner will be gone by the early teens if not sooner, leaving Booth Washington’s Trent McDuffie and Florida’s Kaiir Elam as the best corners available.
McDuffie is a fine enough prospect but Booth has a boundary skill set with longer arms, and that could help him off the board before the 30th. New England, Buffalo, and Kansas City are all possible landing spots in Booth’s projected range. The ultimate beat would be the Chiefs passing on Booth at 29 and taking him at 30.
Outside of Kyle Hamilton, there isn’t a safety that’s a lock to go in the first, and there aren’t many teams with glaring enough of a need there to reach. Cine is a fringe first-rounder and there’s the same juice (-115) on the other side of this wager, which makes this a tricky call. Still, I’ll bet that a safety market doesn’t develop in the late first and Cine slides past the 30th pick.
Here’s hoping that this is either smoke or that Daxton Hill is the last safety off the board in the first.
You’re giving up a decent amount of juice here but we can see Lloyd sliding into the 20s nonetheless. Not a lot of teams are in need of a middle linebacker in the first and even if Nakobe Dean is sliding, Quay Walker or Leo Chenal (h/t Mario) could still go ahead of the Utah product. Philadelphia at 18 is a concern for this prop if it keeps that pick rather than packaging something to move up and address another position, but otherwise, Lloyd could very realistically slip to the mid-to-late 20s.
This quarterback class has been maligned plenty. But the idea of the first quarterback coming off the board at 14 just doesn’t seem likely, and we expect Willis to be QB1. All of Detroit, Carolina, and Seattle are all plausible landing spots as the board is currently configured, but Carolina is a threat to trade back to help accrue more mid-round draft capital. Still, teams drafting after 13 have ammo to move up if Willis is still hanging around by the 10th pick. It’s hard to know exactly where Willis will land, but we like the idea of him going before 14 at plus-money.
It’s looking less and less likely that Deebo Samuel gets dealt to the Jets, which puts yet another team potentially in the market for a receiver before the 12th pick. All of the Jets, Falcons, Giants and Commanders could be landing spots for the big-play threat out of Alabama.
There seems to be some late helium on Elam, who checks plenty of boxes in terms of height (6-1.5), speed (4.39 40) and track record as he was a standout at Florida against tough competition. Some combination of Gardner and Stingley will be the first two off the board, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how the corner market develops after that. Trent McDuffie is a fairly heavy favorite on DraftKings (-250) so I’d rather take the upside at +300 on a player we view with just as good of a case to be the third corner off the board.
The most likely scenario, according to the odds, is Walker/Hutchinson/Stingley at +200. I’m sure those odds looked a lot different a week ago, and if you locked that in, kudos to you. But as it stands, even if it’s the most likely, +200 isn’t enough when the whole thing could go up in smoke if Jacksonville has been duping us all along.
I’d rather sprinkle a few small wagers on the three exact outcomes listed above. The top two picks seem predetermined and all of Neal, Ekwonu and Thibodeaux are viable options for Houston at 1.3.
We’ve all been waiting patiently — and the time has finally arrived. The NFL Draft begins Thursday evening in Las Vegas beginning a three-day event with more than 250 names being called by the league’s 32 teams.
The event goes along way in shaping NFL futures odds, considering a couple of contenders have multiple first-round picks and are looking for the piece to put them over the top (KC and Green Bay), while others are searching for a spark that could take them from worst-to-first.
The location, Las Vegas, is certainly a sign of the times (what were the odds of the NFL Draft being in Sin City five years ago?). Vegas is the sixth different major city to host the draft since 2015, when the league left its routine of Radio City Music Hall in New York City for Chicago.
Ironically enough, bettors in New York won’t be able to place bets on the draft. Certain states have restrictions on non-sporting events, and those states consider the draft to be one of those.
The good news is that a number of states that have legal sports betting DO have player and team props. If you’re in a state where sports betting is legal, here’s the status of whether you’ll be able to place bets on the draft over the next few days.
Here’s a list of states where bettors are legally allowed to wager on the NFL Draft:
NOTE: In Michigan you could only bet on the NFL Draft up until midnight on Wednesday; in West Virginia the cutoff was Wednesday at 8 p.m. In Las Vegas, sportsbooks are required to take down lines 24 hours prior to the start of the draft.
You can also bet on the NFL Draft in Ontario. New York, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, and Virginia are examples of states that do not allow betting on the NFL Draft, because those states do not consider it to be a sporting event — so similarly, bettors couldn’t wager on something like Academy Awards winners.
Just about every major sports betting app features NFL Draft player and team props. From which player will be the first overall pick to how many players from a certain conference will go in Round 1 — and even props as wild as which position Mr. Irrelevant, the final pick in the draft, will be — are available to bettors.
Here are a handful of NFL betting props that we’re interested in when the Jacksonville Jaguars go on the clock Thursday night at Caesars Forum:
Odds: -125 on DraftKings
A torn ACL suffered in the College Football Playoff championship game hurt Williams’ stock, but he’s the most gifted receiver in this class. And with the direct impact rookies like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase have had in recent years—and the fact that ACL tears are no longer career-defining injuries—we fully expect the Jets (Nos. 4 and 10) and Falcons (No. 8) to take a hard look at the Alabama field-stretcher. This line has shrunk over the last few weeks, indicating it’s likely to happen.
Odds: +450 on DraftKings
The Packers desperately need help at wide receiver. Trading away All-Pro Davante Adams and losing Marques Valdez-Scantling to free agency have left gaping holes at the position. The Packers will address wide receiver at some point, but they quietly also need help on the edge.
RELATED: Massive Early NFL Draft Odds Movement New Challenge for Bookmakers
Rashan Gary is a budding star, and Preston Smith had a bounce-back season. But losing Za’Darius Smith is a significant loss, and teams can never have too many rushers in this league. Also, the defensive line is pretty thin outside of Kenny Clark. This is a value play here, as the Packers could go EDGE at No. 22 and address wide receive at No. 29.
Odds: +120 on Caesars
Arguably the best cornerback in college football his freshman season, Stingley has been relatively quiet since. That’s not to say he isn’t an elite talent — it just means he isn’t a slam dunk to go in the top-7 any longer. Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner will likely be the first corner off the board, and with a few defensive and offensive linemen locks to go in the top-7, we’re running out of room on where Stingley fits in.
All teams in the top-7 need help in the secondary, we just think there are better talents ahead of him on most big boards. The fact that we can get plus odds makes this a solid move. Look for Stingley to go in the early teens.
Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Let’s have some fun with this one. A record eight teams have multiple picks in the first round. Throw out historical trends here because there should be tons of moving around based on that. Given how many quarterbacks have late first-round grades, we expect that a handful of teams will try to move back into the first round to grab a quarterback that’s falling.
On top of that, both the Giants and Jets have multiple top-10 picks, and both could trade back to secure some much-needed draft capital. With so many picks already having been traded, expect tons of wheeling and dealing on Thursday night. Grab the over here.
We ran through the 2022 NFL Draft props odds at DraftKings and picked out 10 favorite angles. This isn’t meant to be read as a proposed portfolio exactly, it’s just an assorted collection of things that stood out. Some of them are riskier than others. There are 12 props listed here over 10 subjects (two props each on Jameson Williams and George Pickens). There’s even an additional Irresponsible Dollar Bet at the end for a fitting No. 13.
The props are not listed in any particular order.
Williams should be no later than the second wide receiver selected, and it seems more likely that four wide receivers go in the top 10 than less than two. The ACL tear he suffered late in the 2021 season is not a concern for his long-term projection, and it might not even matter much for the short term either.
If Pickens is a favorite to go by 36, then it might be a bit stingy to say he’s unlikely to go in the top 32. If one receiver goes a little earlier than teams expected then it wouldn’t be shocking to see Pickens in the mid-20s. He needs the wide receiver run to happen, because the later the receivers start to go the less inflation there might be for players like Pickens and fellow fringe first rounders Jahan Dotson and Skyy Moore.
If the Packers don’t get a top receiver prospect in this draft then they might as well consider Aaron Rodgers’ window closed. Great as Rodgers has been the last two years, the losses of Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are huge, and it was only three years ago that Rodgers looked barely capable of starting before his two-year resurgence. Making Allen Lazard his WR1 is a good way to bring back 2019 Rodgers.
The Jets have some kind of issue with Mekhi Becton and are expected to move on somehow. All of Ikem Ekwonu, Evan Neal and Charles Cross are options to do so at the fourth pick.
This reasoning is mostly based on the departures of safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Daniel Sorensen. Dax Hill or Lewis Cine would make a lot of sense for the Chiefs at safety, and they could use a big outside corner like Andrew Booth or Kaiir Elam to replace top corner Charvarius Ward, who signed with San Francisco in free agency.
Dallas attempted to re-sign but lost Randy Gregory to Denver in free agency, and Demarcus Lawrence’s contract is an issue. A player like Boye Mafe would provide Dallas with substantial value at at the 24th pick. Dallas needs edge defenders, and this draft has stronger options at their pick than most other drafts. If they were prepared to pay Gregory before he went to Denver, then the 24th overall selection for a player like Mafe is an undisputed bargain in comparison.
Even if they don’t take him at the second overall pick, Detroit should seriously think about making it a point to acquire Willis in the first round. They’re stuck with Jared Goff another year, so redshirting Willis would be easy and thus the rawness concerns with Willis wouldn’t apply as much in their case.
If the Lions don’t take a quarterback this year then they’ll go into 2023 needing a quarterback even more, but with less draft capital to acquire one and no guarantee that any prospects are as good as Willis or Desmond Ridder, let alone better. Betting on a team to do what makes sense is risky in a league where many fools are in charge, but the Lions are borderline required to make a quarterback selection in the first round if they want to compete for more than a wildcard berth in the next three years.
One good way to make the Derrick Henry contract age poorly would be to let the Titans’ offensive line fall into disarray. The Isaiah Wilson pick was a good first step toward that outcome, and the departure of guard Rodger Saffold offers another chance for the Titans to lose ground in the trenches, which they are dependent on for any competitive success.
Luckily for the Titans, there should be three guards who grade as strong picks at their first round selection – Tyler Smith, Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green – and all of them are stout maulers who fit the Tennessee aesthetic. The Titans should consider themselves fortunate to have such easy plug-in replacements for Saffold as realistic options in the first round.
Linderbaum is the far and away consensus C1, so if a team is desperate for a zone-scheme starting center they might be willing to pay a surprisingly high price for Linderbaum’s services. The question is how lively such a market could be when an undersized, zone-blocking center is basically a niche category.
Normally this is the category of player you pursue as a Moneyball hack – paying less for smaller, quicker centers rather than trying to match the bids for the more coveted size/speed prospects – so Linderbaum would mark a pretty big exception to that rule as a 6-foot-2, 296-pound center with short arms.
Perhaps DraftKings and others have gotten word from NFL sources that McDuffie will go in the first 20 picks, because outside of intel there’s no basis for assuming as much. McDuffie is sometimes compared to Jaire Alexander and perhaps this informs his enthusiastic public reception.
Unfortunately, he is not Jaire Alexander. McDuffie has short arms and lesser athleticism than Alexander, who can do everything. McDuffie won’t be playing the press like Alexander does, and he’s less likely to thrive on an island. McDuffie is definitely a good player and one worth a first-round pick, but Alexander is a star.
Here is your Irresponsible Dollar Bet. Chenal is of course a long shot to be the first linebacker selected. That’s expected to be Utah’s Devin Lloyd (-500), and there are still five more linebackers (Nakobe Dean +400, Quay Walker +1000, Christian Harris +3500, Troy Anderson +5000, Chad Muma +5000) favored ahead of Chenal.
But the Patriots at the 21st pick might have an oversized interest in Chenal because he’s a prototypical Parcells/Belichick inside linebacker and might offer them a more athletic version of Dont’a Hightower’s inimitable functions as a linebacker who eats gaps on almost a defensive tackle-like level.
Chenal was the best player on a suffocating Wisconsin defense, posting elite production across the categories of sacks, tackles and tackles for loss. Then he ran a 4.53-second combine 40 (96th percentile among ILBs according to Mockdraftable) at a mammoth 6-foot-3, 250 pounds (89th percentile). His vertical (41 inches, 99th percentile) and broad jump (128 inches, 98th percentile) were also plainly elite. Chenal will eat the pocket in the NFL.
The prop almost certainly won’t work, but if it does it only takes $1 to profit $75.
With the NFL Draft less than a week away, the Detroit Lions continue to be linked to quarterbacks.
The Lions have the No. 2 and No. 32 picks, but Jared Goff isn't concerned about the possibility of being supplanted by a rookie.
He claims he has "no concern" if Detroit were to select another quarterback in the draft.
Goff says "there's no way to control" the talk of the Lions potentially selecting another quarterback.
"What do I make of the talk? The talk is always just the talk. If it happens, great, I'll deal with it from there and be the best player I can be," Goff said. "If it doesn't, you guys probably won't talk about it again, so it's the way the media cycle works. Again, I trust those guys up top. They've expressed confidence in me so I'm excited."
Kenny Pickett will meet with the Detroit Lions next week, according to a report.
The Lions have the No. 2 and No. 32 picks in this month's draft.
Pickett would be the only known quarterback to visit with Detroit.
Dan Campbell doesn't believe the Detroit Lions need to find an elite quarterback to have "sustained success."
A majority of this offseason has centered around NFL teams scrambling to find a top-tier quarterback.
"No, I don't think you need that," Campbell said. "I think that those guys like that are obviously, they're special. And they certainly can give you a better chance. But no, I don't believe you have to have one of those guys to have sustained success."
