IQ - Football Wiretap

Belichick Praises Quinnen Williams For Ruining OU's Scheme In CFP

Mar 25, 2019 12:15 PM

While watching game film of Alabama's Quinnen Williams against Oklahoma, Bill Belichick praised his effectiveness for continually splitting two blockers to create pocket pressure on Kyler Murray.

“(Williams) is basically ruining [Oklahoma’s] scheme right now," said Belichick.

Williams is expected to be a top-5 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.

Jim McBride/Boston Globe

Tags: Draft, Draft Misc, IQ

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Nobel Prize Winner Explains Raiders' Logic Of Khalil Mack Trade

Mar 25, 2019 10:13 AM

The Oakland Raiders received the Best Transaction award by MIT for the Khalil Mack, which was explained by Richard Thaler.

Thaler won the 2017 Nobel Prize for Economics and has consulted with an NFL team about the value of draft choices and how to build a team.

Oakland received two first round picks, a third round pick and a fifth round pick for Mack and a second round pick.

“Here’s the argument,” Thaler said. “The Raiders are down, and they will be getting these [four] picks to help them rebuild their team. I believe the only way to win in football is to have players who play better than their salaries. Let’s stipulate that Mack is getting top-of-market value for his services, so it will be hard for him to play better than his salary. Let’s also stipulate Mack is worth the money. But is Mack worth all that money plus four good draft choices?

“Now Jon Gruden can build through these multiple high picks on rookie contracts instead of just having one great player being paid at a market rate. In fact, if Gruden were talking to me, I’d tell him to trade the number four pick for multiple picks. I’d trade down every year. If I had a pick in the top 10, and I wasn’t drafting a quarterback, I’d want to trade down every year. There is value in multiple high picks versus one pick in the top 10.”

Thaler believes the draft-trade value chart devised by Jimmy Johnson overvalues high picks.

“Teams still use that stupid chart,” he said. “That chart overvalues high picks. It’s a joke. High picks, to me, are over-valued stocks. Smart teams should have a portfolio manager, to basically analyze every draft decision or trade.” 

Thaler also believes NFL teams need to expand their analytics departments.

“Football,” Thaler said, “is way behind baseball and basketball. [Houston Rockets GM] Daryl Morey has a staff of I think 15 full-time analytics guys. Why wouldn’t you want to give yourself every edge when you’re building a team?”

Peter King/NBC Sports

Tags: Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, IQ

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Raiders Given Best Transaction Award By MIT For Khalil Mack Deal

Mar 18, 2019 5:15 PM

The Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT honored the Oakland Raiders with the Best Transaction award, calling it the best move any franchise made in 2018 in any sport.

The move received some criticism for the Raiders within the NFL giving up a player of Mack's caliber.

But the Raiders received two first round picks, a third round pick and a sixth round pick for Mack and a second round pick.

Michael David Smith/Pro Football Talk

Tags: Las Vegas Raiders, IQ

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