Tight Ends

TIER 1

1. Travis Kelce, KC

TIER 2

2. George Kittle, SF
3. Darren Waller, LV

TIER 3

4. Kyle Pitts, ATL
5. Mark Andrews, BAL
6. T.J. Hockenson, DET

TIER 4

7. Noah Fant, DEN
8. Tyler Higbee, LAR
9. Logan Thomas, WAS

TIER 5

10. Dallas Goedert, PHI
11. Robert Tonyan, GB
12. Mike Gesicki, MIA
13. Jonnu Smith, NE
14. Evan Engram, NYG

15. Austin Hooper, CLE

TIER 6

16. Hunter Henry, NE
17. Blake Jarwin, DAL
18. Rob Gronkowski, TB
19. Gerald Everett, SEA
20. Anthony Firkser, TEN
21. Cole Kmet, CHI 

 

Draft Strategy:

The tight end position has a few stars and then a bunch of guys. Let’s take a closer look at the 2020 numbers. The top 10 tight ends (per Yahoo scoring) are listed below:

1. Travis Kelce, 260
2. Darren Waller, 226
3. Robert Tonyan, 150
4. TJ Hockenson, 142
5. Mark Andrews, 141
6. Logan Thomas, 139
7. Mike Gesicki, 132
8. Rob Gronkowski, 126
9. Hayden Hurst, 121
10. Jonnu Smith, 119

Andrews played in 14 games, while Kelce, Gesicki and Smith played in 15 games, with the balance of TEs playing a full slate of 16 games. With this information in hand, note the following:

• Kelce, the highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 17 PPG
• Waller, the 2nd highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 14 PPG
• Tonyan, the 3rd highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 9 PPG
• Smith, the 10th highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 8 PPG

So if you had Kelce last season, you averaged an additional 8 PPG over the 3rd highest scoring TE! And if you had Waller, you averaged an additional 5 PPG over the next (3rd) highest scoring. Finally, once you compare TE3 down to TE10, the only difference is approximately 1 PPG from top to bottom. As you run further down the list, the dropoff continues to be minimal.

Heading into 2021, Kittle will rejoin Waller at the non-Kelce high tier, while the tier 3 trio - Pitts, Andrews and Hockenson - should each carve out production above the 2020 Tonyan (think 10-11 PPG). Then you’ll have a smear of TEs with similar production over the course of the season.

With this information in mind, I suggest the following strategy at tight end – either draft one of the big three, or address the position towards the end of your draft. Folks will likely overpay for the tier 3 troika, and once you fall into tier 4 and below, as you see from the numbers above, the returns will largely mimic each other.