2012 Record: 9-7

Point Differential:    +85   

Turnover Margin: +14      

Sack Differential: +13 

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC:  7th    

Passer Rating: 14th            

3rd Down: 11th          

Scoring: 5th 

QB: Anytime a team can trot out a quarterback with multiple Super Bowl rings, the position is in pretty strong shape. Eli Manning enters his 10th season in the league firmly ensconced as one of the best. Last year was a bit of a down one for Manning. He failed to top 4000 yards for the first time in four seasons, and his touchdowns, yards per attempt and completion percentage all fell off a bit. Eli’s numbers were still quite strong: 3948 yards, 26 touchdowns, 59.9 percent completions and 7.4 yards per attempt. Those are good but not elite, and last year the Giants needed him to be elite more often. That is likely true this year as well, as the Giants have become an offensively oriented team more than perhaps ever before.

Manning should top 4000 yards and 25 TDs once again. It might seem like a trivial matter, but inching the completion percentage past 60.5 percent and the yards per attempt over 7.5 will make a tangible difference in the offensive efficiency. Eli’s durability is an ongoing feat, particularly given the state of his offensive line (more on them below). He adjusts and quickly resets in the pocket as well as anyone, and his quick release and good feel for the rush keep his sack totals much lower than many QB would sport here. He’s (mostly) learned when to bail on a play and throw the ball away instead of trying to force the action and taking bigger hits. Starting 146 games in a row is a testament not just to self-preservation but also intelligence and perseverance. It’s the qualities that keep the streak intact and not so much the streak itself that makes Eli Manning an upper echelon quarterback.

Once again Manning will be backed up by veteran David Carr. The former No. 1 overall pick has nicely settled into life as a trusted journeyman backup. This will be his fifth season as Manning’s top backup, though those years come with a short tenure in San Francisco sandwiched in between. Carr has thrown just 49 passes since the start of the 2009 season, but he still has that panicked, shell-shocked look about him in preseason contests, the result of taking sacks on more than 10 percent of his career pass attempts. By way of comparison, Manning is at 4.6 percent while notorious sack victim Michael Vick is at 8.6 percent. He has the downfield zip that Eli has when he decides to stand tall and deliver a strike, but it’s questionable if he could ever do that in a meaningful situation.

Former Colts train wreck Curtis Painter is hoping a strong preseason can convince the Giants to keep his youthful promise over Carr as the top backup, but because the team drafted Ryan Nassib in the 4th round, Painter is unlikely to win that argument. Nassib belongs on the practice squad for at least one year, which makes the Giants a good place for him to land as there is no need to rush him into service. 

RB: One year after sharing the mantle with Ahmad Bradshaw, David Wilson is now the featured back. He earned that role with his electrifying blend of speed, balance, and vision. The 2012 first round pick from Virginia Tech put up five yards per carry in his rookie campaign and shined on kickoffs as well. His opportunities were limited by an ill-timed fumble in the opener and the coaching staff’s trust in Bradshaw. Wilson did get double digit carries in three of the final four weeks and impressed, something that he can build upon this year. Ball security and his work in the passing game, where he was ineffective a year ago, will determine just how much Wilson plays, but with Bradshaw gone he could very well see 300+ touches. 

Andre Brown returns as the power and short yardage back. When Brown has been healthy he has been effective, but staying healthy is one tool that isn’t in his box. His leg drive and forearm shiver make him a real load to tackle. Brown has some ability to pop out at the second level, but the big plays are going to come from Wilson. In the red zone, however, Brown could see a lot more work and earn the “touchdown vulture” label from disgruntled Wilson fantasy owners.

The Giants have used more than two backs more than most teams for years, but that could be coming to a halt. The third back is Da’rel Scott, a blazing speedster with limited vision who goes down on first contact too easily. He picked up just nine yards on six carries a year ago. Journeyman Ryan Torain has been on three different teams in three years, unable to stay healthy or show much when he’s been on the field. 7th round pick Michael Cox is still living off his 5-star recruit status that never panned out at Michigan. His hands give him a chance to stick. 

Fullback Henry Hynoski is a solid blocker in both the running and passing games. His availability is in question after tearing a knee ligament and chipping a bone in OTAs. Because of that, tight end Bear Pascoe has seen a lot of action working out of the backfield. Offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride utilizes the fullback in pass protection frequently, so it’s not an insignificant development if Hynoski is out for an extended period.

WR/TE: If everyone is healthy and happy, this is an outstanding group of receivers. Victor Cruz has danced like a star in his two seasons as the main slot receiver. His quickness in and out of breaks makes him reliably open, and Cruz has excellent body control sifting thru traffic. His hands failed him too frequently a season ago, notably in the opener where he dropped three gimmies against the Cowboys, and Cruz didn’t break off as many long scampers as his breakout 2011 season. The key here is for Cruz’s level to stay at least where it is and not drop back. His downfield speed and ability to quickly transition from receiver to runner is what makes him special, but if he drops too many balls or cannot reliably get open deeper, Cruz falls back a notch on the effectiveness scale. This year is very big for him to prove he’s not a flash in the pan. It is worth noting that he did actually score more touchdowns in 2012 than 2011, but Cruz’s work was much less dramatic in scale last year.

Getting Hakeem Nicks healthy enough to perform at his peak level would make the Giants passing game all the better. It’s already strong, but Nicks makes it downright lethal. He is the lid lifter, the downfield threat blessed with decent size but excellent strength and burst that commands safety attention. To steal from an AFC scout’s parlance, Nicks “tracks and attacks” the ball in the air as well as anyone. Eli loves to look for him blazing down the right sideline. Nicks can also sharply break off a route and cross the middle. Health is an ongoing issue, however. Nicks missed three full games and was clearly slowed in others. He’s never played a full 16 games thanks to various foot, knee, and ankle issues in his four seasons. The Giants need Nicks to be available for more than the 100 targets thrown his way a year ago, and he needs to be well enough to convert more than 3 of his 53 catches into touchdowns. The potential is certainly there for the former 1st round pick.

Second-year wideout Rueben Randle is widely mentioned as a breakout star candidate. He ended his rather underwhelming rookie season nicely with two TDs in the finale and built upon that with a much better attitude during OTAs, according to multiple reports. Randle is a much bigger target at 6’4” and isn’t afraid to find his way across the middle. His work ethic and quickness are the two big knocks, but he appears to have answered the former. He’ll never be shifty or a big vertical threat, but Randle can nicely fill the outside role opposite Nicks. If the improvement is legit, and I think it is, Randle could easily hit 60 receptions for 850 yards and a handful of touchdowns. His size should make for a nice red zone target for Manning.

Free agent signee Louis Murphy has the inside track on the fourth wideout spot. Of course Murphy bombed when given a chance to be Carolina’s third wideout a year ago, and he couldn’t ever build upon a strong start in Oakland either. Murphy has good vertical speed but only has one gear, and his attention to detail could be stronger. He’ll have to fight off Jerrel Jernigan, a water bug type of slot and backfield weapon. As a draft evaluator I had high hopes for Jernigan, but he has been unable to stay healthy. Jernigan has just three catches in two season. His roster spot is likely safe based on his 3rd round draft status in 2011 and the lack of anyone really pressing him from below on the depth chart, but if he wants to be a long-term Giant, Jernigan needs to produce significantly more on the field. Ramses Barden somehow is still around as a depth receiver. I’ll reiterate what I’ve said about Barden since I scouted him back in 2009: wideouts that can’t get open at the D-II level are never going to get open in the NFL, period. To be fair, Barden did contribute some while Nicks was out and he’s a very good edge blocker. A largely anonymous group is battling for what might be one practice squad spot. My personal favorite is Purdue product Keith Carlos, but he might not be on the team tomorrow (it’s Aug. 17th).

At tight end, Martellus Bennett fared well as a one-and-done gun. Replacing him will be former Raider Brandon Myers, who exploded onto the scene last year as Carson Palmer’s personal security blanket. He could fill much the same role for Eli, who has made a lot of similarly average tight ends look pretty good. One area where they will miss Bennett is in blocking. It’s not so much that Bennett was great at it, but Brandon Myers is truly awful as a blocker. The Giants appear to be converting their blocking TE, Bear Pascoe, into more of a fullback/H-back. Part of that is a function of health, but Pascoe has just 26 receptions in three seasons and is slow down the field. Second-year project Adrien Robinson could make an impact if he can keep focused and translate his raw athletic potential into being a more viable weapon. Robinson can at least give the team what Travis Beckum (still unsigned) did in his one halfway competent year with 13 receptions and two TDs. 

OL: The familiar faces and names are all back, for better or worse. Left to right, the starters will be Will Beatty, Kevin Boothe, David Baas, Chris Snee, and David Diehl. All but Beatty are at least 30, with Baas and Diehl really starting to show their age. 

Beatty is the young pup at 28, and his arrow is still pointing up. The agile left tackle struggled earlier in his career with base strength, but improved technique and work in the weight room have really paid off. Beatty allowed just three sacks and rated near the top in QB pressures allowed among all left tackles. He’s good in space as a run blocker, though his initial power is still not great. Beatty does get flagged more than Tom Coughlin would like, but his holds typically prevent big hits on Manning.

Boothe, Baas, and Snee are an effective G-C-G package that has good chemistry together. They reliably give Manning room to operate and have an innate ability to cover for one another should someone get beaten. Snee can still road grate as a run blocker even though his range has diminished. His punch remains among the best in the league. Baas is a reliable pivot that keeps Eli safe and sound while making sound line calls. Both are coming off offseason surgeries and it wasn’t the first time either has gone under the knife. Boothe is ideally a strong 6th lineman but he holds his own starting at left guard.

Diehl is the fan whipping boy up front for his diminishing skills. Strangely the veteran relishes the enmity. He’s at his best when playing angry, and few tackles play with as much genuine hostility as David Diehl. Unfortunately he can get too wrapped up in his individual battle and miss blitz assignments. Diehl agreed to a massive pay cut to stick with the team for one more season. They drafted Justin Pugh in the first round to take over the position, and the Syracuse rookie probably had a legit shot at earning the gig had he not suffered a concussion that has kept him out of the preseason. I evaluated Pugh as a 4th round pick--at guard, no less. It will be interesting to see how the right tackle position progresses. Diehl can also play guard, and the injury contingency plan could very well be to have Pugh take over on the right side and slide Diehl inside if a guard goes down.

The depth is stronger at tackle with Pugh and James Brewer, who is pretty stiff but oddly effective in pass protection. Both Chris DeGeare and Bryant Browning have practice squad experience and are fighting for the right to back up Beatty, though I suspect Pugh would get the first crack at it. The inside depth is represented by Jim Cordle and Selvish Capers, perennial waiver wire fixtures that keep coming back for more. Brandon Mosely, the team’s 4th round pick in 2012, spent his rookie season on IR but could usurp either one. Cordle is more apt to stick as he is a center by trade. This Ohio U. grad is rooting for 7th round pick and fellow Bobcat Eric Herman to at least make the practice squad. 

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 26th  

Passer Rating: 20th            

3rd Down: 30th         

Scoring: 12th 

DL: For years the hallmark of the Giants has been a merciless defensive line. They’ve been deep, physical and star-laden. New York still has a pair of fearsome ends in Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, but both have lingering questions entering the season. Tuck comes off a down year with just four sacks, often looking stiff and complacent to simply dance with the blockers. His ability to crash the pocket from the outside was almost nonexistent, and the loss of that threat made his inside work less effective. Tuck was merely good-not-great in 2011 as well, which begs the question of how much he has left to offer. He’s 30 now but that’s a 30 with a lot of mileage. Tuck could very well bounce back with a strong campaign and it would surprise no one. But he could just as well be in the midst of a steady decline. The Giants desperately need the former. If Tuck doesn’t bag at least 8 sacks, he’s not doing enough.

JPP is becoming an enigma. His rookie year was raw but impressive with five sacks and six PDs in relatively limited duty. His second season was breakout stardom with 16.5 sacks, 86 tackles and legit consideration for Defensive MVP. His third season saw the sack number plummet to 6.5 as teams chipped him with tight ends and rolled protections his direction, and his impatience showed at times. Now he’s coming off back surgery that still has his early season availability and effectiveness in question. Even if the pass rush doesn’t rebound, the Giants need JPP on the field as much as possible for his work against the run; he’s the only member of the front-seven that can reliably shed a block and stick the ball carrier into the ground on the next step. He leverages the edge incredibly well. It’s that ability that makes me believe he’ll get back to double digit sacks once again…provided his back is fine. Back injuries are a tricky thing for guys with long upper bodies, and they can flare up at any time even after corrective surgery. 

At least the Giants still have Mathias Kiwanuka. They’ve officially thrown in the towel on turning him into a linebacker and are moving the veteran back to end. When he enters as the rush end and Tuck slides inside, that’s a very strong twosome for offenses to try and keep out of the backfield. Kiwanuka isn’t a great pass rusher but he brings length, good speed, and energy to the spot. He can bend the edge and create pressure as a complementary rusher quite effectively. They will miss him looping off the edge on delayed blitzes and his open field speed against the run, however.

Rookie Damontre Moore will also figure into the mix. If the preseason is any indication, Moore could have quite a significant impact. A legit production machine at Texas A&M, Moore fell from being a first round pick to the third round because of concerns about his athletic potential. He timed slowly and looked like a foreigner in the weight room. All that overshadowed an instinctive rusher with great closing burst and relentless drive. Moore should be a productive end right away, and he’s fully capable of stacking up the edge despite his lack of core strength. Special teamer Adrian Tracy and preseason virtuoso Adewale Ojomo will compete for the other reserve spot at end.

The Giants have been aging inside for some time, but they do have a young keeper in Linval Joseph. He’s a massive gap stuffer with enough quickness to get into the backfield and annoy the QB. Joseph can even flip a few sacks if he times the snap count right or gets matched up against an opposing center that can’t anchor well. His 59 tackles represent outstanding production from an interior lineman. The Giants need to keep him at right around 40 snaps per game as he tends to lose effectiveness with overuse. To that end they drafted a very similar player in Johnathan Hankins from Ohio State in the second round. He’s a quicker, less consistent version of Joseph. Hankins will likely see most of his action as the nose rusher in passing downs, but as a Buckeye he was quick to shed blocks and hammer the runner in the hole. Keeping him focused and fresh is imperative. If veteran Shaun Rogers sticks--and he might not--he can be an excellent mentor for Hankins. Once upon a time, Rogers was an absolutely dominating interior presence when the mood struck him. At his Detroit best, Rogers was capable of beating double teams with either brute power or crafty quickness, but it was always on his terms. Wear and tear on his 335+ pound body has reduced his effectiveness, and he missed last year with a blood clot issue.

Just to be safe, the Giants signed another aging vet in Cullen Jenkins. The 32-year-old has bounced around a little lately but can still bring some heat as an under tackle or 3-technique. Last year in Philadelphia, Jenkins had a host of close but no cigar pass rushes. He’s inconsistent against the run, not always quick to locate the ball. Within this rotation, Jenkins should be a solid contributor that can bag four or five sacks and wear down opposing guards. 

There were once high hopes for Marvin Austin, but the 2011 2nd round pick is in real danger of being cut. Injuries and painfully ineffective play leave him firmly on the bubble. Last season in limited duty he couldn’t beat single blocking against Cleveland. He will have to legitimately beat out former Eagle Mike Patterson and holdover Markus Kuhn. Patterson is a quick scrapper who was perennially underappreciated in Philadelphia, but his best days are behind him. Kuhn was brutal at anchoring versus the run but somehow got his paws in the way of four passes. He’s coming off a torn ACL, however.

LB: There is no question this is the biggest problem spot. The Giants have several useful role players but no standout and no strong all-around talent. All three starting spots are still unknown after the second preseason game, and the lineup could very well fluctuate all season. The top two tacklers from last season, Michael Boley and Chase Blackburn, are both gone. That leaves Mark Herzlich, Keith Rivers, and a bunch of questions.

Herzlich is an awesome story. He’s tough as nails and a cancer survivor, one of the most inspirational guys in the league. Unfortunately he just hasn’t been all that effective when given extended looks on the field. He just doesn’t have the strength or quickness needed to be anything more than a rotational contributor, and he’s not lithe in coverage. Rivers has struggled ever since his first NFL season with injuries. He can clean up tackles in between the hashes and can blow up lead blockers to allow others to make the tackle. Rivers is the most aggressive backer against the run, but can get caught overreacting. Like Herzlich, he’s just not fluid or comfortable playing in space or in coverage. 

Jacquain Williams will see the field a lot in passing situations as the nickel cover backer, most likely in place of Rivers. He has great quickness and solid instincts in coverage. Williams also brings some ability to blitz, though Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell prefers to dog from the inside and Williams typically lines up over the tight end when he’s near the line. The good folks at Pro Football Focus gave him a negative grade in coverage last year but I saw him as better than that, and I expect he will turn that around in 2013. Former top-5 overall pick Aaron Curry quickly washed out of both Seattle and Oakland, and he hopes to make the most of what might be his last chance with the Giants. At his best, Curry has flashed sporadic competence against the run and a decent burst around the edge as a blitzer. That’s at his best, which neither western team saw near often enough. He’s a worthwhile gamble as a reclamation project, but I worry the Giants need him to be the stud from Wake Forest that merited top-5 draft status.

Former Cowboy Dan Connor is also in the mix. At minimum he will push Herzlich for the starting spot in the middle, and he could very well win it outright. Connor is a little stouter at the point of attack and quicker to react laterally. He was somewhat miscast in Dallas’ 3-4 defense, ironic now that the Cowboys have switched to the Cover-2 heavy 4-3 scheme as a base. Spencer Paysinger offers limited potential on the weak side, better utilized in small doses. He flows to the ball well but doesn’t make a lot of impact. It was surprising that GM Jerry Reese once again avoided using a prominent draft pick at such a perennial weak point, particularly after a season where poor LB play really cost them.

Secondary: Even though they suffered from uneven play, particularly on third down, the starting foursome returns intact. Corners Corey Webster and Prince Amukamara will be joined by safeties Antrell Rolle and Stevie Brown once again in the base defense.

Webster was repeatedly picked on last season, and for good reason. He surrendered several big plays and remains incredibly vulnerable to double moves. To be fair, Webster did produce some streaks of solid play at times, and he does get his hands on a lot of balls with 10 INTs and 30 PDs over the last two years. Webster can be a functional starting corner as long as he has safety help over the top. Teams have done a good job scheming to isolate him, and his coaches need to help him out more in that regard. Amukamara got off to a slow start, missing half his rookie year of 2011 and not looking strong (figuratively or literally) when he did play. He was better in his second season, though his toughness as a tackler still leaves me wanting. Prince has worked on shortening his stride in shorter areas, which helps with his agility. His instincts and closing speed are both sound. He’ll start on the right side and could emerge as a Pro Bowl caliber corner if he can avoid the nagging injury bug.

Brown was a pleasant surprise in his first season as a starter. He picked off eight passes and showed a real nose for the ball against both the run and the pass. Brown reads and reacts quickly and plays smart; he understands when to take the gamble for the pick or when to resist and make the tackle right after the catch. His range isn’t ideal and he matadored some open field tackles against the run, but Brown’s opportunism and production are real positives. Rolle also misses more tackles than he should. It’s somewhat confounding that a former corner doesn’t cover all that well at safety but Rolle suffers from overconfidence in his cover skills. Put simply, he guesses too much. For much of last season Rolle was the best run defender in the back seven. That’s more an indictment of the surrounding cast than praise for Rolle. He often slides into man coverage when the Giants bring in a third safety, something they do more frequently than most teams. 

The third safety position falls to free agent signee Ryan Mundy, who defected from the Steelers and offers experience and headiness. He’s not as physical or rangy as the man he’s replacing, Kenny Phillips, but he’s more reliable and durable. Will Hill could have been in the mix but a 4-game suspension to start the year buries him in Coughlin’s doghouse, which is not an easy place to escape. Tyler Sash is primarily around for his special teams ability. He’ll fill the fourth safety role while Hill is suspended and could stick there if he plays well. Fifth round rookie Cooper Taylor, a favorite of mine from Shrine Game week, could have a say in the matter too. He’s almost the exact same size as middle linebacker Herzlich at 6’4” and 230ish pounds. 

Aaron Ross returns as the third corner with tail firmly between legs after a lousy free agent foray in Jacksonville. He was yanked from the lineup twice for ineffectiveness and never looked comfortable or particularly interested as a Jaguar. The Giants are hopeful that a return to a more competitive team and familiar environment will bring out his best. He should be better than Jayron Hosley, who was overmatched in trying to cover NFL speed and strength. Terrell Thomas remains on the roster, though expecting anything from the former starter after three ACL tears is foolish. The Giants cannot count on him ever making it back on the field. To help him possibly return they have toyed with moving him to safety. The best of the rest is speedy Terrence Frederick, a slightly built Texas A&M product who spent his rookie year on the practice squad. 

Special Teams: Punter Steve Weatherford fits the Giants well. He understands the tricky winds of the home stadium and excels at directional punting. Coughlin trusts him, and that’s important. They will have a new kicker as veteran Josh Brown is unchallenged in camp to replace Lawrence Tynes. They are hopeful Brown produces more touchbacks on kickoffs, something they ranked 31st in a year ago. David Wilson earned his way back into the RB mix thanks to his electrifying work as a return man, but the Giants might find him too valuable to the offense to risk. Jerrel Jernigan has the potential to be a solid replacement, and Rueben Randle will also get a crack at it. There could be some dropoff there, however. Last year the Giants had the best average starting field position from kickoffs in the entire league. With all the shuffling at linebacker and safety, the coverage units will have some new pieces to integrate, which could be problematic. That makes Brown’s ability to produce touchbacks more important. Special Teams Coordinator Tom Quinn is a very good one, and fans will recognize his assistant Larry Izzo for his days as one of the ST fixtures in New England. 

Forecast: It’s funny how much difference a year can make. The Giants have gone 9-7 two years in a row. The first year those nine wins were good enough to get into the playoffs and they eventually won the Super Bowl. The second year it left them on the outside looking in after dropping five of their final eight games. This year, on paper anyways, avoiding the late season collapse should be easier. New York gets three straight home games coming out of their bye along with workable road dates at San Diego and Detroit late. They also get a mini-bye earlier, playing on Thursday night in Chicago in Week 6 and being off until the Monday night game in Week 7. With all the veteran bodies on the lines, getting those breaks is important.

As long as Eli Manning is spinning the ball and the weapons around him are at or near full speed, New York can outscore just about anyone. I expect the defense to be erratic but the pass rush to step up, which helps the coverage at the back end. Nothing less than 10 wins and a return to the playoffs will be considered a disappointment. These Giants are under the radar in a loaded NFC and I expect them to use that to their advantage. They do not disappoint, going 10-6 and getting back into the playoffs where a hot QB can make all the difference in the world.