2012 Record: 10-6

Point Differential:    +54   

Turnover Margin:   +9      

Sack Differential: -1

Offense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 12th  

Passer Rating: 10th            

3rd Down: 18th         

Scoring: 11th 

QB: Nobody in the modern history of the NFL has ever picked a better time to get hot than Joe Flacco did late last year. Prior to the early December firing of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, Flacco appeared to be playing out his Baltimore string with little hope of securing a lucrative long-term deal. Baltimore had lost consecutive games to Pittsburgh and Washington where Flacco appeared indifferent and squandered several good opportunities to secure wins. Many columns, including one by yours truly, were written about which QB the Ravens were going to draft and if Flacco could find free agent opportunities.

And then Flacco heated up. An outstanding performance in a win over the Giants kicked it off, and it carried into the playoffs. Flacco threw 11 TDs and no INTs in their four playoff games and was the biggest reason they won the Super Bowl. His MVP status and consistent playoff awesomeness landed Flacco the richest deal in NFL history for a quarterback. It will be impossible for Flacco to live up to that standard, but just as he isn’t deserving of such superlative praise and cash, Flacco was never worthy of being as demeaned or scapegoated as he was by his critics. With Jim Caldwell now running the offense as he did following Cameron’s dismissal, Flacco is clearly comfortable with a mastery of the scheme and how to execute in the clutch. The same aloof, slack-jawed persona he exudes when things aren’t going well serves him incredibly well in pressure situations. The team has invested a great deal in building the offense to suit his talents, and the fruit of that effort is a Super Bowl victory and at least one playoff win five years in a row. That is not an accident or a coincidence, even as much as I like to think so as a critic of Flacco.

Two changes that Caldwell made to the offense really played to Flacco’s strengths. First, they let Flacco run more complex plays, and run them at a more consistent, urgent pace. Secondly, he had more options at more levels and different areas of the field. It empowered Flacco with confidence and also gave him clearer lines of vision. One of my main critiques of Flacco, and this goes back to his days at Delaware, is that when he has two receivers in his line of sight he throws the ball to neither with any accuracy. He’s not unique in this; Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford have the same problem, though not to Flacco’s extent. What Caldwell did was to clean up the clutter. Sure, in theory it makes it easier to cover, but in practice it amplified Flacco’s ability more than it augmented the defense’s ability to cover. Sustaining that over an offseason, with teams now having more examples to watch, will not be easy but is not unfeasible.

The Ravens remain high on backup Tyrod Taylor. Now entering his third season out of Virginia Tech, Taylor has played reasonably well in limited duty. He brings a mobile dimension that is invaluable for the defense in practice as they prepare to face the growing trend of read option athletes. Taylor can do that himself, rushing for over 60 yards and a TD against the Bengals. He tends to lock onto receivers and hold the ball too long as a thrower, however. Should the Ravens keep a 3rd QB, they ought to find someone more capable than former Bear and Bronco Caleb Hanie. 

RB: One of the biggest reasons for continued optimism in Baltimore is the running back position. Ray Rice is a bona fide playmaker, one of the best and brightest all around talents in the league today. Everyone remembers the 4th & 29 conversion against the Chargers as his signature play, but Rice makes all sorts of nifty, shifty runs that few others can match. The numbers don’t really tell the full picture, as Rice’s 4.4 yards per carry and 7.8 yards per reception last season are both below his career averages; Rice is the engine that drives the offense. Because he is such an accomplished receiver out of the backfield, he commands attention from safeties and linebackers. That opens up crossing routes and downfield strikes, the throws that Flacco does best. I expect another highly productive season of about 4.5 yards per carry and an additional 65+ receptions for over 550 yards, with at least 14 combined touchdowns. The biggest concern with Rice is his workload; he has over 350 touches in three of the last four seasons, and no back has more touches over the last four years than Rice.

Fortunately the Ravens have Bernard Pierce, a highly competent young talent. Pierce showed at the end of his rookie campaign just what he can do, turning in 214 rushing yards in more extended action in the final two weeks. Pierce offers more of a powerful style than Rice, who doesn’t lack power but prefers to juke or spin instead of bowling over a defender. Pierce can pound tough yards inside but has some ability to bounce out at the second level. If he can develop in the passing game, where he remains very much a work in progress, he could see even more of a shared workload going forward. 

Anthony Allen and Bobby Rainey will vie for the few remaining carries. Rainey is diminutive but has blazing open field speed, while Allen is more of an inside power slasher. He got almost all his work in the finale, and neither figures to see much action other than garbage time once again. The Ravens are breaking in a new fullback in rookie Kyle Juszczyk, as they opted to let some other team grossly overpay for Vonta Leach. Leach was a sledgehammer of a run blocker but only average in pass protection and absolutely worthless as a receiver. The rookie from Harvard brings more athleticism and versatility to the position, though he cannot match Leach’s acumen for blowing up linebackers in the hole. GM Ozzie Newsome made a conscious decision to go younger and cheaper here, a necessary evil in order to pay for last year’s Super Bowl win.

WR/TE: This is a huge variable after the Anquan Bolden trade. Baltimore dealt away the veteran as a cap casualty. Bolden led the Ravens in receptions and yards and was arguably the MVP of the entire playoff run. Even though his ability to separate from DBs is all but gone, Bolden still made a very effective target because of his rare strength for the position and his fierce desire. That will be extremely difficult to replace, and nobody on the current roster has anything remotely close to that ability. Because of that, expect even more of a vertical passing game. 

Baltimore is well-equipped for that style. In Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones, the Ravens have an outside tandem that can get behind the defense and make the downfield catch. Jones can be maddeningly inconsistent with his hands, but few can reliably get open over the top better than the Dancing With the Stars alum. Smith is one of those that can, and his development into something beyond a receiver that can simply “go deep” has been fun to watch. He still does most of his damage down the field, but he has shown some ability to cross the middle. Also, he has developed a nice sudden stop after selling a long stride off the snap, an easy way to attack a big cushion for some easy yards underneath. One tidbit to note about Smith--he’s significantly more effective on the right side of the formation than the left. Unfortunately that is true of Jones as well. The Ravens desperately need one of these two to emerge as a divergent sort of talent, because there is no proven slot or possession receiver on the roster. They also need both to stay healthy and produce more consistently. It’s asking a lot. I suspect Smith will do just fine, but I worry about needing more from Jones; when Houston asked the same of him he largely flopped and is still reviled by the Texans fan base because of it. 

The player with the best chance to replace Boldin is David Reed, although he couldn’t be more of a different style. Reed is a slender 190 pounds and tries his hardest to avoid any and all contact. That reluctance to get physical is part of the reason why he has just 5 catches in three years. Reed has the athleticism and quickness of a more traditional slot receiver, and the job is his for the taking. Tandon Doss has been a big disappointment, most notable for his two ugly drops in the Colts playoff game last year. Injuries have dogged his development after being a 4th round pick in 2011, and he has just 7 receptions in his two seasons. Boldin was capable of catching 12 on any given Sunday, and now the Ravens are attempting to replace him with two players that have 12 career receptions in five seasons. That right there tells you how imperative it is that Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones stay healthy and up their own ability. Deonte Thompson has blazing straight line speed but spent almost his entire rookie season as a kick returner. His redundancy with Jones likely earns him a roster spot, but expecting more than his 5 receptions last year as an undrafted rookie is asking a lot. Big rookie Aaron Mellette is making a large jump from Elon. The 7th round pick offers a wide target with soft hands; at minimum he should get some looks for his blocking and in shorter yardage spread formations.

Things look better at tight end, where Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson enter their 4th season together. Taken a round apart in the 2010 draft, the two have carved out strong roles in the offense. Pitta is a more effective receiver, very good at releasing out of the slot and motioning across the formation. He has some seam-stretching speed and Flacco inherently trusts him to make tough catches in traffic. His targets could dramatically increase as the offense looks for more underneath options. Dickson could also see an uptick. Two seasons ago he appeared to be on the verge of a breakout with 54 catches and five touchdowns, but his play and production fell off in 2012. Neither is a very good blocker, which is a problem when the team goes to two TE sets. Billy Bajema is an excellent blocker but unlikely to catch more than 10 passes. A bounceback season from Dickson would go a long way in filling the huge void of Boldin. It’s interesting that both Pitta and Dickson are due to hit free agency next offseason, a powerful carrot dangling in front of both. 

OL: One of the changes Jim Caldwell made during the epic playoff run was to dramatically alter the offensive line. The changes worked. Inserting Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, sliding Michael Oher over to the right side, and flopping Kelechi Osemele to left guard from right tackle, was a stroke of genius. McKinnie solidified the blind side in a way that Oher simply couldn’t live up to; insert ironic “Blind Side” jab here. Oher is much better suited for the right side, where his plodding feet and slower punch are less of a negative. He’s still nothing more than an adequate starter on the right side, but that’s better than he was at left tackle. McKinnie is a mammoth veteran on the left. When he’s in shape, which is not always the case, he has an excellent ability to mirror the edge and delivers a ferocious initial punch. All reports are that McKinnie looked very good in OTAs, a good sign.

Osemele was quite good as a rookie, especially considering the midseason position change. He was holding his own at right tackle but represented a major upgrade over Bobbie Williams and Jah Reid at left guard. His pass protection ability brought inside dramatically helped Flacco stay more comfortable and gave time for downfield plays to develop. I expect Osemele to do even better with a full offseason working inside, and he could be a Pro Bowl caliber performer sooner than later. Right guard Marshall Yanda already holds that lofty status, and he’s one of those Pro Bowlers that actually earns the trip to Hawaii on more than name recognition. He might be the best in the league at pulling across to lead the charge for Rice and Pierce to follow. Yanda also brings a genuine snarl to the line, a welcome attribute in the physical AFC North. The Ravens will rely more on his leadership as they transition centers from venerable, heady Matt Birk to Gino Gradkowski. They should be in good hands, as Gradkowski is quick and smart. He’s not going to blow anyone off the nose like Birk sometimes could, but there shouldn’t be too much of a dropoff.

The depth up front is spotty, to be charitable. Reserve center A.Q. Shipley has some starting experience but has T-Rex arms that severely limit his ability to initiate contact and dictate leverage. He will have to beat out Ryan Jensen, a 6th round pick that is a pet project of OL Coach Juan Castillo. The aforementioned Jah Reid is physically imposing at 6’7” and a well-built 340+ pounds, but he struggled when given a shot at guard. His best role is as the top backup right tackle, which is where he’s penciled in at the start of camp. He cannot play the left side, however, and most teams prefer their top reserve tackle to be able to swing to either side. Ramon Harewood offers some potential oomph as an inside reserve if he can stay healthy, something that has proven quite problematic in his career. Undrafted rookies Jordan Devey and Rogers Gaines are likely competing for the same practice squad tackle spot. Devey, an older prospect from Memphis, has quite a few positive moments during Shrine Game week practices.

Defense

2012 Ranks

Rushing YPC: 8th     

Passer Rating: 5th   

3rd Down: 12th         

Scoring: 9th

DL: The Ravens' defense suffered some massive personnel casualties this offseason, but the line returns fairly intact. This unit should remain a real asset as long as stud tackle Haloti Ngata is healthy. When he’s been at full speed, the perennial Pro Bowler is a wrecking ball at his hybrid end/tackle position. His quickness for a man his size is rare. Ngata also has the ability to shed blocks with a powerful punch and great balance. He locates the ball well and can close on the quarterback well enough to bag five sacks a year. However, Ngata comes off a bit of a down season from his prior lofty standards, and he suffered a knee injury in the Super Bowl. Reports indicate he showed up to early camps heavier than expected. These are real causes for concern as Ngata has worn down later in recent seasons. He’s played a great deal of snaps over the years now, and it’s not out of the question that his best years are behind him. If he cannot rebound into a 50-tackle, five ack, two forced fumble force like he was from 2007-11, the Ravens defense really loses some teeth.

That is part of the reason for bringing in free agent Chris Canty. The former Giant ostensibly is competing with Arthur Jones for the other starting spot, but his likely role is that of highly utilized sub at either end spot. Jones played well in a more expanded role last season after not showing much in his first two seasons. Unlike Ngata, Jones got better as the season progressed, particularly as a pass rusher. Keeping both he and Ngata fresh is imperative, and Canty is well-suited for that task. He is solid against the run and offers some ability to bull his way into the backfield. Canty has experience playing 3-4 end and both end and tackle in a 4-3, which allows Defensive Coordinator Dean Pees a lot of flexibility.

Terrence Cody returns at the nose guard position, but his job is under legitimate threat from rookie Brandon Williams. Cody’s fluctuating weight and underperforming tendencies have left him vulnerable. He has outstanding bulk but seldom translates it into anything meaningful. Cody does little more than occupy space on too many snaps, which leaves the door open for the younger, hungrier, and potentially more dynamic Williams. The third round pick from Missouri Southern is more compactly built but just a naturally strong as Mount Cody. During an impressive Senior Bowl week, Williams demonstrated more active feet and quicker burst off the snap than Cody has given the Ravens. That carried over into camp, where onlookers raved about the new Raven. At minimum, expect Williams to see significant action. Whether that’s in lieu of Cody or next to him when the team goes to an even front is on Cody’s effort and attitude.

Veteran Marcus Spears, who played with Canty in Dallas once upon a time, comes over from the Cowboys to help bolster the depth. Like Canty, he has some positional versatility. Spears has tended to be streaky throughout his career, but his toughness against the run will be welcome. Going deeper on the depth chart is scary, as DeAngelo Tyson did little in a limited role last year. Undrafted rookie Will Pericak is the kind of high-motor, just-talented-enough kind of player to stick around a team that has thrived defensively with those sorts of players. Rookie John Simon brings the ability to play end in 4-man fronts as well, but he’s better suited to play off the line as the understudy to Terrell Suggs, who also plays on the line at times.

LB: It’s going to be very strange to watch the Ravens play without Ray Lewis leading the defense. Even though his play had really fallen off in recent years, Lewis brought a presence and leadership to the team that can never be replaced. They fed off his energy and relentless work ethic, and even though he couldn’t cover anyone and lost some oomph to his hits he remained the single most important Raven. Yet I think the team did an excellent job finding Arthur Brown in the 2nd round. Brown oozes instincts and quick reactions. He’s smallish at an even 6 feet tall and 240 pounds, which is below what a slimmed down Lewis played at and struggled. That didn’t affect Brown’s ability to fly all over the formation making tackles at Kansas State, and I’m not too concerned it will be a major hindrance in Baltimore either. He should upgrade the coverage with his speed and flexibility in space. It’s worth noting that Brown missed the postseason workout/all-star season with a shoulder injury and missed minicamp while recovering from sports hernia surgery.

The other inside spot figures to belong to former Jaguar Daryl Smith, but there are a lot of injury variables here. Smith missed almost all of last season with a groin injury, and he’s at the age (31) where quickness doesn’t come back quickly. In Jacksonville Smith was a tackling machine and showed some ability to time blitzes up the gut. As long as he’s close to his former self he should capably replace free agent departure Dannell Ellerbe, though not in coverage situations. Jameel McClain would merit a long look for the starting job but his career could be over with a neck injury. On the day I wrote this (July 23) the Ravens put him on the PUP list and there is no timetable for his return. Josh Bynes wasn’t in over his head when thrust into a starting role late in the regular season, but it’s worth noting he didn’t play a snap in the playoffs despite those late starts. Reserve Albert McClellan is slated to return in his sub role provided he is recovered from offseason surgery of his own, his being a rotator cuff. It’s a dangerous gamble to rely so heavily on players with injury issues, but the Ravens have little choice.

Plucking Elvis Dumervil from the free agent pile to replace Paul Kruger as the left outside backer is an interesting move borne of freakish opportunism. An alleged fax issue with his free agent tender in Denver unexpectedly put Dumervil on the open market, and the Ravens pounced. Dumervil is an all-or-nothing pass rusher, either wildly disruptive or painfully ineffective. His best asset is his first step, which allows him to beat the punch of much bigger, taller, stronger linemen. Playing him at outside linebacker takes away that advantage. It will be interesting to see how Dumervil is deployed and how effective he will be in replacing Kruger, who cashed in on a breakout season and fled to division rival Cleveland. Kruger was a more physical rusher than Dumervil. 

Terrell Suggs should be back to his old self after missing half of last year with a torn Achilles. He came back too early to be his old dominant self and was limited to two sacks in a strictly situational rushing role. Suggs is healthy and in great shape, and he will be leaned upon heavily to ratchet up the production to his 2010-11 numbers, where he averaged 52 tackles, 12.5 sacks, and five forced fumbles. Those are lofty standards but Suggs definitely has the ability to hit them, if not surpass them. Once again, the Ravens are relying on a rather large injury risk here out of necessity. Suggs not only tore his Achilles but also his biceps tendon last year. Those are not insignificant injuries that are 100 percent certain to fully heal, and taken together indicate a larger issue with soft tissue injury potential. Should Suggs be lost for half a season again, the results would be much worse now than last year.

The Ravens have a rather large contingency of combatants for the reserve pass rusher/OLB roles. 4th round pick John Simon will make the team in some capacity. As I mentioned in the DL section, the former Buckeye can play end or linebacker. The issue is figuring out which role suits him better, a debate that divided the draftnik community last winter. Critics would call him a tweener; advocates would call him a baller. The Ravens will be happy if the truth is somewhere in between. Pernell McPhee is a beefy reserve who is also able to play both up and down. He filled in for Suggs early last year and was very good against the run but brought little sizzle to the pass rush. Expect to see him on early downs to keep Suggs fresher for pass rushing chaos. Last year’s 2nd round pick, Courtney Upshaw, is in real peril if some Baltimore beat writers are to be believed. After a disappointing rookie campaign where he notched just 1.5 sacks and seldom scared opposing tackles, Upshaw reported to OTAs visibly overweight. That drew the public ire of Harbaugh and drew snarky comments from national talking heads that he is better suited to replace Terrence Cody than Paul Kruger. If Upshaw doesn’t demonstrate some pass rush potential quickly, he risks being a major draft bust already. The team already has McPhee as a heavyweight reserve OLB and he’s a better pass rusher than Upshaw, although the rookie did play well against the run most of the time. Lithe, speedy Adrian Hamilton spent his rookie year on the practice squad and brings the ability to turn the corner in a hurry. That could earn him a niche role as a situational pass rusher, especially if he can contribute on special teams. Spencer Adkins and Meshak Williams both belong on someone’s practice squad for a year, though neither figures to make Baltimore’s without a strong preseason.

Secondary: Just as losing Ray Lewis goes far beyond the role between the lines, so does losing safety Ed Reed from the secondary. His presence extended well past the tackles and interceptions, both of which he still put up at above-average numbers; Reed was the center fielder that opposing WRs feared and QBs dreaded. The fact they also lost Bernard Pollard, the other starting safety, makes it even tougher on the back end.

Replacing Reed will be former Raider Michael Huff. He has had an up-and-down career. A former first round pick, he was actually moved to corner for a time because of his ineffective safety play. Huff has since learned better positional responsibility and has shown better toughness, both physically and mentally. While he’s not the ballhawking threat that Reed was, Huff will spend less time gambling and out of position. Those were warts that Reed’s production obscured to most fans, but quietly some Ravens will welcome the change to a steadier presence. Huff’s coverage skills will certainly be put to the test, as he will start opposite 1st round rookie Matt Elam.

Drafting Elam in the 1st round severely strains my overwhelming faith in Ozzie Newsome, one of my all-time favorite players and one of the best GMs of the last 25 years. Elam certainly brings the thumping, intimidating presence that Pollard had at the strong safety spot. So much of it, in fact, that it would surprise no one that watched him play at Florida if Elam gets suspended for a game or two for illegal head shots. He made his name on bone-rattling, concussion-inducing hits on what the NFL often considers defenseless receivers. In terms of actual coverage skills, Elam is extremely limited in range and stiff. He’s a player that guesses and gambles, leaving his mates exposed far too often for my liking. I will give Ozzie the benefit of the doubt ever so tenuously here, but do not be surprised if Elam winds up being a black mark on Newsome’s otherwise fantastic record.

Getting corner Lardarius Webb back to full speed answers a huge question at corner. He was lost in midseason a year ago after turning in a fantastic 2011, where he exhibited legit shutdown coverage. His torn ACL rehab progress is still cloudy; as of publishing time Webb has yet to be cleared by team doctors. That’s likely more a technicality than anything to worry about, but it could impact his conditioning and game speed early on. One thing it shouldn’t impact is his run defense, which was top notch for a corner. Webb can play both outside and in the slot, and that ability to morph allows the Ravens to dictate matchups, not the offense. Starting opposite Webb will be either Corey Graham or Jimmy Smith, though both figure to play extensively. Graham is a much better all-around corner than Smith, but the 2011 first round pick has flashed signs of being very good. If Smith can avoid the clutching and grabbing and learn to use his feet more deftly, he is a good candidate for a breakout player. Graham is reliable but unspectacular. He played quite well in the playoffs, and that line of credit boosts his value to the Ravens. Look for Smith to play outside and Graham to occupy the slot, the perfect world scenario for Baltimore. 

Chykie Brown had a big target on his back in the playoffs. It was on his back and not his chest because Brown tends to not anticipate the ball very well and is often blind to the QB in coverage. He must clean up the gaffes and missed tackles if he ever wants to be more than a dime back. Special teams fixture James Ihedigbo is the third safety, but only because young Christian Thompson has been suspended for the first four games for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Omar Brown has scant experience and will have to beat out Anthony Levine for the 53rd and final roster spot.

Special Teams: Baltimore had very good special teams a year ago, a key factor in their title run. Punter Sam Koch is ultra-reliable and consistent. His kicks do tend to permit returns but he can angle to a sideline or pin the ball deep pretty well. Rookie kicker Justin Tucker was a revelation, making all four of his field goals from beyond 50 yards and booming kickoffs out of the end zone. He proved his clutch ability by making two 4th quarter attempts in the Super Bowl. Tucker is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the best kickers in the NFL. Jacoby Jones ran back three kickoffs for touchdowns and is a long-striding threat with excellent initial vision. He also took a punt back to the house, though Jones is generally more effective on kickoffs than punts. Deonte Thompson could get more looks running back punts if Jones proves too valuable to the offense. The Ravens will miss Sean Considine on cover units, though Corey Graham, James Ihedigbo and Albert McClellan are all effective. The attention to special teams from Coach Harbaugh, who made his name as a ST Coordinator, is obvious, and current ST Coach Jerry Rosburg is thought of highly enough to earn the Assistant Head Coach honor. With another strong year, Rosburg could earn some head coaching interviews next winter; his units are that good and that well respected.

Forecast: Baltimore faces a long battle to break the drought of Super Bowl champs repeating. Losing eight starters off the defense is a Herculean challenge, but when two of them are Ray Lewis and Ed Reed it seems an even more ominous task. There is still quite a bit of talent here, as the front office did an enviable job of retooling on the fly. Baltimore has a very good chance to make it back into the playoffs if Joe Flacco proves worthy of the mega contract he signed and if Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce meet expectations as one of the best 1-2 rushing punches in the league. Injuries at any offensive skill position would be catastrophic, however. The offense is going to have to cover for the lack of chemistry and cohesion on defense. Because they are so well coached and well managed, I still expect the Ravens to compete for the AFC North title. I think whether they make the playoffs or not comes down to their final two games, a home date with the Patriots and a trip to the Jungle in Cincinnati. Win one and they’re a playoff team. Win two and they’re hosting a game as a division champ. I’ll go with the split and get the Ravens a Wild Card berth with a 9-7 record.