RealGM Analysis
2011 Record: 8-8
Point Differential: +22
Turnover Margin: +4
Sack Differential: +3
Offense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 18th
Passing: 7th
3rd Down: 11th
Scoring: 15th
Defense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 7th
Passing: 23rd
3rd Down: 22nd
Scoring: 16th
5 Reasons to be Bullish:
1. Upgrades in the secondary. The defensive backfield has been an anathema for several seasons, but this offseason owner Jerry Jones aggressively pursued some major improvements. He engineered a draft day trade way up in the first round to secure the services of LSU corner Morris Claiborne, the most highly regarded corner in the draft by a fair margin. He will start right away on one side. For the other side, Jones opened up the checkbook for free agent Brandon Carr, an above-average starter with the Chiefs for the last four years. Claiborne displaced wildly inconsistent Mike Jenkins, while Carr booted past-his-prime veteran Terrence Newman off the roster. The new duo is bigger and more suited to play the more aggressive man coverage that blitz-happy coordinator Rob Ryan demands. Now Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick slide to the nickel and dime spots where they belong on the depth chart, and they provide excellent depth familiar with the system. Young safety Barry Church has shown marked improvement during the offseason and should be better than unreliable Abram Elam, particularly in coverage. Putting all these new pieces together is unpredictable, but I can’t imagine this collection of talent being anywhere near as bad as Cowboys secondaries of recent vintage.
2. The offensive skill positions. It starts with Tony Romo, the most unfairly beleaguered starting QB in the league. For whatever reason, be it his backwards hat or goofy smile or having Steel Panther as his wedding band, people heap an inordinate amount of blame on Mr. Romo for the Cowboys lengthy playoff woes. Romo is consistently one of the best QBs in the league, with six years in a row with a QB rating over 91 and a QB+ rating (100 is league average) over 110. He’s 5th all-time in yards per attempt and he does that despite having, at best, iffy protection (more on that later). That yardage is made possible because of his receivers, and in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant the Cowboys have one of the most potent 1-2 punches in the league. Both have good size, strength, and speed, able to stretch the field but also work underneath. Demarco Murray exploded onto the scene as a rookie RB, and his running style fits very well in the offense. Murray put up 5.5 yards per carry as a rookie and displayed the ability to break the first tackle and turn a simple cut into a big gain. They still have Felix Jones as a change-of-pace back, an excellent receiver and home run threat in his own right. Adding strong FB Lawrence Vickers will only help. The starting skill position players here are in the top 5 overall in the league.
3. DeMarcus Ware. Ware is one of the most impactful defensive players in the NFL, and he’s grown into one of the best all-around players of the last decade. Early on, Ware was largely one dimensional: get to the passer. But he has learned how to better set the edge against the run, how to interrupt passing lanes and disrupt timing, how to swoop in off backside containment; in short, how to be an overall defensive force. Of course he still gets to the passer. A lot. 35.5 sacks over the last two seasons, to be exact. 100 times in 112 games for his career. Ware is in his athletic prime and has a solid line in front of him that doesn’t allow teams to focus too much attention on stopping him. I see him getting at least 15 more sacks, two more forced fumbles, and another 30 QB hurries while being in the short conversation for Defensive Player of the Year. As long as he is on the field, the Cowboys defense will be competitive. The improvement behind him only makes him more dangerous.
4. Linebacking. Ware gets the vast majority of the attention, but he’s not alone in the linebacker foursome. Anthony Spencer is maligned for his inability to produce to his franchise tag salary, but he is above average against the run and consistently generates QB pressure. Obviously the team (and fans) would like to see more than 6 sacks, but I think they’d be surprised at how much they would miss Spencer. Sean Lee has emerged as a quality ILB, good on coverage and able to stonewall the run. Lee is poised to take another step in his progress and top 120 tackles and 10 PDs. Bruce Carter and newcomer Dan Conner give the Cowboys more youthful athleticism inside than the departed Bradie James. Carter missed all of last year but was a tremendous draft value as a 3rd rounder for a player of his speed and instincts. Conner has veteran savvy from his Carolina years and plays a similar style to Lee, who followed him in the middle at Penn State. Victor Butler is a solid, if unspectacular, third outside backer good for 3-4 sacks and capable run defense. Rob Ryan loves to show different looks and do crazy things with the linebackers, and this unit has the athletic versatility to make it work. This group has a chance to be very good.
5. The schedule. If you have perused their schedule you might find listing this as an asset sheer lunacy. But I like that the Cowboys get so many home games in the second half of the season. They have a stretch with five out of six games at home starting Week 11 with Cleveland. If they survive a tough early slate, the Cowboys are well-positioned to control their own destiny. Some of those late season opponents (Pittsburgh New Orleans, Cincinnati) are teams that could be unexpectedly down this year. I also like the two-game stretch heading into their Week Five bye: home dates with Tampa Bay and Chicago. The Bears will be formidable, but getting them at home in prime time and with the knowledge that they can lay it all out before their break looks good to me. The tough slate of games also should give the Cowboys confidence if they make it to the playoffs; 10 of their 16 games come against 2011 playoff teams. Greatness is forged with trail by fire, and this team aspires to nothing less than greatness.
5 Reasons to be Bearish:
1. The offensive line. Everyone not named Tyron Smith does not deserve to be a starter in the NFL. As great as Smith might be, this line looks like a major problem. How bad is it? On roster cutdown day, the Cowboys traded for Miami’s backup center and Ryan Cook immediately became the best interior lineman in Dallas. Phil Costa and Kevin Kowalski, both centers, are not complete stiffs, but neither is healthy. Both starting guards, Nate Livings and Mackenzie Bernardeau, are castoffs from other teams that weren’t particularly sorry to see them leave. Doug Free returns to right tackle, which should help him personally, but other than a short stretch in 2010 he’s been more of a problem than an asset. Even Smith is a bit of a question in moving from right tackle to left tackle. I think he’ll be great on the left side but there is a little unknown there. Romo has taken a pounding even though he’s agile, and the short yardage run blocking is embarrassingly inept.
2. Depth in the trenches. As weak as the starters on the OL might be, the depth is even scarier. David Arkin is the most notable reserve, and he’s most notable for being pushed around as an overwhelmed 4th round rookie last year. With the injury bug already virulent, I really question the Cowboys’ ability to protect Romo and open the holes for Murray & friends to run through. Defensively it’s not much better. The starting threesome of Jason Hatcher, Jay Ratliff, and Kenyon Coleman is solid, but beyond them there are a lot more questions than answers. I like 3rd round rookie end Tyrone Crawford and I know they do as well, but he is somewhat of a project. He never faced a NFL lineman in his 4 years at Boise State. Marcus Spears hangs on with name value only; he’s just not anything more than a space filler at this point. Backup nose Josh Brent is functional as a hole clogger but a radical departure from the attacking Ratliff. Sean Lissimore has decent upside but has yet to show much.
3. Receiving options after Austin and Bryant. Last year’s revelation, Laurent Robinson, cashed in and moved to Jacksonville, leaving a giant hole. Jason Witten and his annual 90 catches for 1000 yards are in severe question after a spleen injury in preseason. At best Witten is out until October, and he was already starting to decline a little anyways. There are some players with potential here, notably Dwayne Harris, but to expect another out-of-the-blue breakout like what Robinson gave last year and Austin did once upon a season is irrational and extremely improbable. Harris got 7 receptions as a 6th round rookie, while his primary competitor, Kevin Ogletree, has 25 catches in three years. Fifth round pick Danny Coale couldn’t even make it to the final cuts. With Austin still gimpy from his seemingly chronic hamstring issues that hamstrung his production last year, and Bryant on double-secret probation for his propensity to spending inordinate amounts of time drunk and rowdy at strip clubs, the need for another viable threat is paramount. I don’t see that guy anywhere near Arlington right now.
4. Coaching. Jason Garrett earned the head coaching gig based on his fealty to Jerry Jones and popular presence with the fans, who demanded someone more intellectually competent and well-rounded than predecessor Wade Phillips. But Garrett has earned the ire of those same fans who so recently trumpeted him. Time management has been a constant battle, costing the Cowboys points and chances at better results. He has struggled tailoring opponent-specific game adjustments as well. Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan is far too ambitious and creative for his own good, dialing up exotic overload blitzes and complex coverage combinations that bear no mind to the offensive formation or personnel groups. In plain terms, Ryan always wants to use double hot fudge with sprinkles, bananas, whip cream, and a cherry when the recipe sometimes calls for plain vanilla. It got him into hot water in Cleveland, where he also had a defense that was good at putting pressure on an offense but more prone than most squads to giving up big plays. New OC Bill Callahan is also the OL coach and needs to devote his time and resources more to his position group. He comes from the Jets, not exactly the most inspiring offense either. Much of the locker room leadership has transitioned out as well and that will be difficult to replace quickly.
5. The Jerry Jones factor. I am a longtime admirer of Mr. Jones, a maverick owner full of inventive ideas and forward-thinking concepts. I like that he’s a fabulously wealthy man who enjoys playing with his toys, something I’m sure I would do if I could squeeze into his shoes. But because he is so hands-on and remains the very public face of America’s most public franchise, he brings undue pressure on the Cowboys. There is a very palpable edge of paralyzing fear surrounding this team, and it starts at the top. Jones is so obsessed with winning the Super Bowl that he inadvertently tightens the rectums and lumps the throat of everyone around him. You can see it when the Cowboys continually wilt in must-win games (see: Week 17 vs. Giants, Week 13 vs. Cardinals). You can see it in the postgame pressers and Q&As with players that avoid eye contact with Jerry at all costs and talk cryptically of having to do better for him, or else. The Cowboys upper management is filled with nepotistic appointments that would make even Mike Brown blush. Jerry is his own GM, his own biggest fan, but also his own worst enemy. His overwhelming presence retards progress, and the more his beloved franchise continues to flounder the more his presence only exacerbates the negative.
Breakout player: Barry Church. The special teams stud and nickel safety will assume a much bigger role in the base defense this year. He is almost a hybrid safety/linebacker, giving the Cowboys a physical cover man that can match up with opposing tight ends and fill hard against the run. He’ll never be a Pro Bowler, but look for Church to emerge as a solid starter with a good nose for the ball.
Forecast: Dallas is a difficult forecast. There is plenty of prominent talent in their primes, and the reinforcements on the defense should pay immediate dividends. But a difficult schedule and a penchant for wilting under the hot spotlight make it hard to trust these Cowboys as a serious contender. I have grave concerns about the offensive line and the receiving spots, where there is no depth and the top three targets (Austin, Bryant, Witten) all have legit questions about their reliability. I expect this will be another maddening season for Cowboys fans, one filled with dominating victories and inexplicable collapses. I see Dallas struggling with some early losses and parlaying a 3-6 start into a lackluster 6-10 finish as the team built to win now succumbs to the cold reality that they aren’t going to win.
