Last Week: 11-4, not a bad week. One of my favorite Twitter interactions, @AngryGambler, of course only reminds me of my horrible pick on the Houston Texans' loss to the Oakland Raiders. Way to force-feed the humility, my surly friend…
I now stand at 106-57 on the season.
Gambling Update: I started Week 11 with 5,500 Uzbek som, down from a starting point of 10,000. Three of my four wagers came home winners, netting me a grand total of 1,750 in profit. That vaults me closer to winning territory. Now sitting with 7,250 som and looking for more!
This is the final slate of incomplete games on the season, which means no more bye weeks. The weather looks to be calmer but colder across much of the nation, so it won’t be as much of a factor.
Thursday Night
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5): I feel bad for the NFL Network. After a series of rather unappealing matchups on their Thursday night slate, they finally got what appeared to be a marquee game. Except the Falcons have plummeted to being one of the worst teams in the league, making this one yet another yawner.
When pondering an upset, I like to look for key matchups the underdog can exploit. I looked long and hard for a tangible advantage for Atlanta in this game. I came up empty; other than professional pride and home cooking under the primetime lights, there is no reason to think the Falcons can stay close.
Saints 41, Falcons 20 for 500 som
Sunday Best
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (+2.5): Three reasons why I like the Patriots to pull off the surprise home win:
1. Game-time temps figure to be in the low 20s, and those cold temps always seem to be a problem for Peyton Manning.
2. The New England offense is not only getting healthier, they’re getting more balanced. From that balance stems confidence, and confidence is as sexy as Gisele Bundchen. Tom Brady knows about both.
3. I think the story angle of Wes Welker returning to New England for the first time since Bill Belichick deemed him expendable weighs a lot more on the Denver wideout than it does the Patriots. I can see Welker pressing and stressing in trying to prove The Hoodie wrong. I cannot see Belichick giving a crap. Advantage to the pulseless.
Patriots 33, Broncos 30
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5): When I started evaluating this matchup, I immediately centered on the amazing comeback prowess of Andrew Luck. The Colts QB has produced a truly astonishing number of late-game comebacks.
Yet that got me thinking about the Cardinals defense. One word comes to mind: Opportunistic. Their corners excel at playing the ball in the air, and their defensive front is able to produce enough distracting pressure to create opportunities.
Then I went back and watched the Cardinals game from last week. Carson Palmer looked very sharp, and stayed so from start to finish. Their offensive line played well, and Arizona flashed a barrage of weapons at Palmer’s disposal.
I have been impressed with the Indy defense, but I also like that Cardinals coach Bruce Arians knows exactly who to exploit their weaknesses. He was the Colts fill-in head coach last year, after all. I like his familiarity, and I like Palmer’s recent boost of confidence.
No doubt Luck and the Colts will mount a late comeback, but I think this one ends in the arms of a Cardinals defender.
Cardinals 24, Colts 20
Sunday Rest
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5): Now we get to see how the Chiefs respond to a loss. Kansas City fell to the Broncos, who exposed the limitations of Alex Smith leading the offense. The Chargers have the ability to do the same, and getting pass rusher Melvin Ingram back on the field will certainly help San Diego.
My problem in liking San Diego is that I don’t see immobile Philip Rivers being able to withstand the Kansas City pass rush. While Peyton Manning, arguably the worst athlete in the league, was able to avoid Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and company thanks to a quick release and savvy sidestepping, I don’t think Rivers can do that all game. I think this one is decided on a defensive touchdown. While I like San Diego’s Marcus Gilchrist to get a pick, I think Brandon Flowers also records one, and his goes for the deciding touchdown.
Chiefs 23, Chargers 17
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (-1): I found it interesting that the Rams are favored here. Even though they are coming off a bye week after an impressive win, there is a national perception that the Rams are not on the same plane as the Bears.
The Chicago defense is the reason why I’m picking the Bears. Despite rampant injuries to key performers at all levels, the Bears D has allowed 20, 21, and 20 points in their last three games. Now they face a backup QB in Kellen Clemens and a line which keeps regressing in pass protection; the Rams rank 13th for the season in sack percentage allowed, they rank 27th since Clemens took over. Julius Peppers is due for a big game, but also keep an eye on Corey Wootton attacking from both inside and at end on the other side.
Bad safety play is rampant for both teams, so look for a lot of points. Could be a big day for Tavon Austin and Brandon Marshall in fantasy terms.
Bears 30, Rams 22
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (+4.5): Let’s see…the Panthers have the best defensive front-7 in football. The Dolphins are missing at least 40 percent of their starting offensive line, perhaps 60% depending on ill center Mike Pouncey. Don’t overthink this one, folks.
Panthers 23, Dolphins 13
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-2): Because Pittsburgh doesn’t lose to Cleveland. That is all that needs to be said.
Steelers 19, Browns 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-9): In the many iterations of this game I simulated out in my head, the crux of the game came down to the star wideouts for each team. Calvin Johnson and Vincent Jackson are huge threats and major problems for the opposing defense.
That got me to thinking about the complementary weapons. Take out Jackson and Megatron and what does each team have left? Detroit has Reggie Bush, Brandon Pettigrew, Joique Belland the return of Nate Burleson. Tampa has Bobby Rainey, Timothy Wright and Brian Leonard. Huge advantage to Detroit.
Lions 34, Buccaneers 24
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-10.5): There is no way this Houston team should be favored by more than a touchdown against any opponent. Last week the gods conspired to give the Texans every advantage possible, and what happened? They lost at home to an undrafted rookie quarterback, wasting the emotional lift of head coach Gary Kubiak returning to the sidelines.
So now you expect them to beat another team by 10 points?!? I know the Jaguars stink, but guess what…so do the Texans! Take advantage of whatever shred of dignity Houston has remaining with the bookmakers.
Texans 28, Jaguars 24 for 500 som
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders (NL): I’m writing this while watching the Today show, for some inexplicable reason. And for some inexplicable reason, their “news” right now is B-list actor Dean Cain singing karaoke of “Pour Some Sugar on Me” with some tone-deaf woman anchor wearing way too much eye makeup.
I know that the final hour of the Today show is designed to be entertainment for middle-aged women, but I defy anyone to classify this abomination as entertainment. Just show me an infomercial for a toaster oven that also can clean my ears…and my shower. Now that’s entertainment!
Raiders 17, Titans 16
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5): The Giants have won four in a row since opening 0-6. Now they get a chance to make a major statement in the NFC East, as a home win here would draw them even with the inconsistent Cowboys.
Dallas is coming off a much-needed bye week. Getting Demarcus Ware’s gimpy knee some rest and rehab should really help the Cowboys defense, and that gives them a fighting chance. Yet their injury-ravaged secondary remains a major problem. I just can’t see their corners slowing down Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, or their safeties cleaning up those coverage gaffes. I’ll ride the hot hands here, but I do respect Tony Romo’s remarkable November record. Prognosticators should too.
Giants 37, Cowboys 34
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5): Minnesota coach Leslie Frazier continues to fumble the situation with his quarterbacks. A week after yanking Christian Ponder for Matt Cassel, Frazier once again returns to Ponder as his starter.
It’s pretty much a no-win situation. Ponder is the most likely to lead the Vikings to win, but he’s also the most likely to produce an abomination that leads to defeat. Frazier has decided that Josh Freeman simply cannot answer the bell, and that Cassel’s milquetoast mediocrity is less valuable than Ponder’s volatility.
I fear for Packers fans that Frazier might be rewarded for his strange loyalty. Ponder is due for one of his strong games, and the Packers secondary is playing some truly terrible football lately. Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers is one of the five worst teams in the league, and that makes them vulnerable to losing to anyone. The Vikings are also one of the five worst teams in the league, however, and they’re on the road.
Packers 26, Vikings 21
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4): The Jets are the first team in NFL history to alternate wins and losses for the first 10 games of a season. They laid a giant egg against Buffalo last week to keep the improbable string ongoing.
This is where you ask yourself how much to believe in history. While the current trend dictates that the Jets will win to prolong the streak, history is against it. If no team has ever been able to do it for 10, that makes continuing to 11 even more unlikely. Of course that leads to the Matrix conundrum.
As Trinity says to Neo as they being to storm the Agent base, “Nobody’s ever tried anything like this before.”
Neo, in the form of Keanu Reeves at his worst acting this side of The Lake House, deadpans, “That’s why it’s going to work.”
Never argue with the logic of Keanu Reeves.
Jets 20, Ravens 16
Monday Night
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins (+5): I’ll declare it right up front: I don’t see any way Washington wins this game. Their insanely awful tackling and poor cohesion on defense is the perfect tonic for all that ails the anemic San Francisco passing game. If Colin Kaepernick can’t throw for 250+ against these guys, the problems in San Francisco are far worse than anyone believes.
The Niners physical and speedy defense is also a good foil for RG3 and the slow-starting Ethnic Slurs offense. If the SF offense can put up a couple of quick scores, this one could get very ugly.
49ers 33, Ethnic Slurs 18 for 250 som
Betting Recap:
Jacksonville +10.5 for 500
New Orleans -9.5 for 500
San Francisco -5 for 250
College Games
Sort of a dog week, as many teams play lesser opponents in preparation for major rivalry games next week.
Wisconsin 28, Minnesota 27
LSU 31, Texas A&M 27
Arizona State 33, UCLA 20
Missouri 27, Ole Miss 24
Baylor 53, Oklahoma State 39