2012 Record:
Point Differential: -94
Turnover Margin: -14
Sack Differential: -17
Offense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 25th
Passer Rating: 30th
3rd Down: 21st
Scoring: 28th
Instead of breaking this one down positionally, I’ll handle the Jets offense as a whole entity. There’s just too much negativity abounding here to extrapolate on every position.
I’ll start with the positives. There is a much more viable Plan B at quarterback than Tim Tebow, should Mark Sanchez once again rank among the worst starters in the league. Geno Smith has some warts, but the rookie 2nd round pick offers legit hope that the franchise quarterback woes could be solved. Smith has demonstrated great accuracy, a good feel for touch, and strong anticipation on his throws. His arm has strong zip down the field, and Smith has a fair degree of elusiveness and athleticism. The biggest question is his attitude and how well he can deal with adversity, two related issues that dogged him when the Mountaineers gimmicky offense got solved midseason and again during the scouting season.
Whoever is the quarterback, and the bet here is that Sanchez starts the year but Smith finishes it, should have better receiving options than a year ago. Santonio Holmes should be back and healthy. He’s a legit deep threat with confidence and pride in his craft, two things that were sorely missing in his absence a year ago. Youngsters Jeremy Kerley and Stephen Hill figure to improve with more experience and coaching. Athletically they pair with Holmes to make a solid trio, with Holmes the feature target, Hill the speedy, field-stretching complement, and Kerley the shifty slot grinder. With better QB play, either from Sanchez or Smith, these receivers should look better.
Nick Mangold remains an elite talent at center. He is one of the best run blockers in the league regardless of position and a truly special one for a center. It’s not hyperbole to suggest that Mangold is a strong candidate for the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. Left tackle remains in very good hands with D’Brickashaw Ferguson, one of the best blindside pass protectors in the league. He surrendered just two sacks last season and consistently mirrors rushers very nimbly. The Jets have legit All-Pro caliber talents at the two most important positions on the offensive line, something most contenders sorely lack. Right tackle Austin Howard was adequate in his first year as a starter and should build off that. Rookie Brian Winters has quickly worked his way into the starting lineup at right guard, and camp observers seem genuinely bullish on the Kent State product. He impressed during Senior Bowl week. Winters has big shoes to fill, as Brandon Moore was a good right guard for a long time, but the falloff isn’t likely to be as steep as expected. Here ends the positives.
The most glaring negative is the commitment to Mark Sanchez. He’s ranked next to last in QB performance in each of the last two seasons by the good folks at Pro Football Focus, ahead of only overwhelmed rookies Blaine Gabbert in ’11 and Brandon Weeden in ’12. Sanchez has poor vision and a complete lack of feel for coverage schemes, not to mention an overactive panic button. His inexplicable contract extension dictates that he remains on the team, and early camp indications are that he is still ahead of Smith. That factoid tells me more about Smith than it does Sanchez, and that’s quite discouraging; if Smith isn’t demonstrably superior to Sanchez, not just in terms of throwing the ball but also leadership and command of the offense, by the end of September there is simply no hope for this offense. Jets fans who hoped that Greg McElroy might be the answer say those prayers silenced in an embarrassing start against the Chargers; McElroy likely won’t even make the roster, having been passed by Matt Simms. This team sorely needs a veteran QB mentor and/or an experienced, strong quarterbacks coach. They have neither.
It would help if the run game was reliable, but that’s not the case. “Ground and pound” worked in the era of John Riggins and Earl Campbell, not the NFL of the last, and next, five years. Having a more dynamic running back would help, and the Jets did swap out disappointing Shonn Greene in favor of Chris Ivory. The former Saint has quicker acceleration, superior vision, and a better second gear than Greene. In limited usage, Ivory sure looked like a promising back. But he’s battled injury issues throughout his career, and he’s already sidelined (writing this Aug. 1st) with a hamstring issue that has lingered all summer. In addition, one of the reasons Ivory didn’t get more play in New Orleans is his poor work in the passing game, both as a receiver and a protector. I do think Ivory is an upgrade, but not getting reps in a new offense with a different blocking scheme is not a good start. There is still nothing behind the starter at RB. Mike Goodson certainly offers potential as a speed back, but his availability is in question after an offseason arrest on drugs and weapons charges. When both the Panthers and Raiders, his former stops, asked more of Goodson he wilted under the increased pressure. Bilal Powell was better than Greene last year in limited duty but is Just a Guy as an NFL RB. He will do some nice things as an inside/out chugger and can handle himself in the passing game but will not produce much in the way of impact plays. Joe McKnight sticks around only for his return man skills, as his upright style and tendency to dance to the hole don’t work as a running back. As I write this, Twitter is abuzz with McKnight once again being unable to practice because of conditioning issues. It’s the middle of August.
All of the receiving options carry significant questions as well. Holmes is coming off Lisfranc surgery that ended his 2012 before September was over, and for a player of his style any loss of burst and speed is a real problem. He still hasn’t been cleared to put weight on the injured foot, let alone practice. He’s also the kind of player who is great to have around when things are going well but a pain in everyone’s rear, notably the QB’s, in tougher times. Hill remains a major project, a long striding speedster with little wiggle and scant experience doing anything but running as far as he can as fast as he can. I expect improvement but Hill’s lack of experience in pro style offenses and balky hands are not going to go away overnight. Other than the opener last year, a completely flukish rout of the Bills, Hill was flat-out invisible. Kerley was the leading receiver a year ago with 56 receptions for 827 yards and two touchdowns. He does almost all his work within 12 yards of the line and ha good elusiveness after the catch, and he is the most promising weapon the Jets have. Yet he is a good complementary player, a solid 3rd option on a good offense who is limited by a lack of strength and occasionally wonky hands. The best hope here is that he develops good chemistry with Geno Smith, who had a similar (albeit much better) kind of target in Tavon Austin at West Virginia. Kerley could catch 75 passes and should find the end zone a little more in 2013. The Jets were desperate enough to bring back Braylon Edwards, a chronic malcontent with hand-eye coordination issues. For about two weeks every year Braylon Edwards looks like the guy the Browns drafted in the top-5 several years ago, while the rest of the time he gives questionable effort and does nothing positive.
The rest of the depth chart is full of one dimensional projects and castoffs from other teams. To illustrate the point, right now the 5th wideout on the depth chart is undrafted rookie Marcus Davis, a chronic underachiever from Virginia Tech. He’s already been waived by the crosstown Giants after initial OTAs, not even good enough to merit a look in camp, but with the Jets he’s a Holmes trip on the PUP away from playing a lot. I am rooting hard for oft-injured 2012 7th round pick Jordan White, a catching machine from Western Michigan who could make a nice possession receiver if he can ever stay on the field. *Late edit--White was waived-injured the day after I wrote this.
As iffy as the wideouts are, the tight end position is an even bigger crapshoot. The Jets (rightfully) tired of Dustin Keller’s underwhelming output, which leaves Jeff Cumberland as the top tight end. Cumberland is a functional, jack-of-all/master-of-no trades who makes for a solid No. 2 on a team that doesn’t run a lot of 2 TE personnel. He should exceed last year’s 29 receptions simply by volume and opportunity, and he does present a decent red zone target. If Cumberland goes down, or if the Jets want to use multiple TE sets, the No. 2 is Kellen Winslow. The very semantics of that sentence is a dead giveaway that it isn’t going to work well; Winslow is still a Pro Bowl talent and legend only in his own mind, and he’s never accepted not being the lead dog. His body appears almost completely shot after numerous knee and lower body issues. Hayden Smith has good length and toughness but has just one NFL reception to his credit. Nobody else in camp would survive the first cuts with any other franchise.
While most of the line appears in pretty good shape, the second guard spot and the depth is atrocious. Stephen Peterman comes off a lousy season in Detroit and really struggles with quickness. He’s fighting for the other spot with former Steeler Willie Colon, who has missed most of the last three years with injuries and was the weak spot on Pittsburgh’s line even when he was healthy. The best hope for the future at that spot is likely undrafted rookie William Campbell, last seen playing defensive tackle for Michigan. If Vlad Ducasse makes the final 53 it’s a very bad sign for the developmental rookies like J.B. Shugarts and Dalton Freeman.
Defense
2012 Ranks
Rushing YPC: 20th
Passer Rating: 6th
3rd Down: 11th
Scoring: 20th
DL: Much has been invested in the front threesome. The starting ends are both recent 1st round picks, with Muhammad Wilkerson entering his third season and rookie Sheldon Richardson looking to make a splash right off the bat. It’s an interesting choice to load up with premium talent at the 5-technique position, which on most 3-4 teams is a complementary role and not a featured position. The gamble by and large pays off because Wilkerson has been very good, and Richardson has the potential to be a special talent on the other side.
Wilkerson is one of the more underappreciated talents in the league. For a 5-technique end to register 70 tackles is outstanding, and many of those are right at or even behind the line of scrimmage. His pass rushing isn’t spectacular, but Wilkerson is effective because he has good hands and excellent football intelligence, with a strong motor to go with it. Where Wilkerson really stands out is against the run. There might not be a better edge run defender at his position in the league. His ability to control leverage and shed blocks to get to the point of attack is special, and somewhat surprising to this draft evaluator as he had a nasty tendency to rise straight up from his stance during his Temple career. Kudos to the Jets staff for developing Wilkerson into a real force.
Richardson could be even better. He has an amazing first step, packed with a powerful burst that can overwhelm slow-footed guards and tackles. I like the concept of having a real pass rushing threat from a nontraditional rushing spot, and Rex Ryan’s creativity with packages and blitzes should put him in favorable situations to succeed. There will be some rookie hiccups, more likely against the run and in misdirection plays run in his direction, but I really like the fit here. Nose tackle Kendrick Ellis, a third round draft classmate of Wilkerson, is a functional space eater in the middle. He almost never ventures more than two steps in any direction on any play, but that’s all the defense asks of Ellis.
With Quinton Coples transitioning to OLB and Mike DeVito and Sione Pouha both gone, the depth up front is very thin. Former Charger Antonio Garay is the only reserve with any experience at all. Garay is a try-hard plugger who will remind Jets fans somewhat of DeVito, though the Jets lost some range and ability to make plays in the backfield. Damon Harrison offers some potential as a rotational contributor if his balky knees are up for the action. Because the defense is so highly dependent upon impact from the ends, having a collection of undrafted free agents and practice squad journeymen as frontline reserves is a very risky gamble. I suspect using Coples as a hybrid DE-OLB is a viable backup plan, but that weakens the linebacking corps.
LB: Much like the defensive line, the starting group here has very good potential. Last season they largely failed to live up to that potential, however. That failure necessitated moving Quinton Coples to outside backer to replace Bryan Thomas, who stuck around at least one year too long. I’m not a big fan of the move. Coples led the team with 5.5 sacks last year from his end spot thanks to his ability to use power and length to separate from shorter, less athletic inside linemen. Successful edge rushers need speed and bend around the edge, and that requires quick twitch musculature. Coples has a lot of muscle, but it’s not of the fast-twitch variety. While there is some value in having a powerful edge rusher, if Coples cannot prove early on that he can beat tackles wide, it’s a very easy adjustment for opposing offensive lines to stymie his power game.
Calvin Pace returns to start on the other side, for better or worse. Pace was much more “worse” than better last year, notching just three sacks while looking every second of being 33 years old and playing thousands of snaps over the last 10 years. In his Arizona incarnation Pace was a versatile all-around outside backer, but the 2012 version was a negligible pass rushing threat, a marginally effective run defender, and a passionless pup in coverage. The Jets desperately need an infusion of younger juice outside, and to that end the team was smart to import another former Charger in Antwan Barnes. Two years ago a healthy Barnes hit double digit sacks before struggling last year to just three. If he can split the difference and record seven sacks, Barnes makes a major upgrade in a pass rush specialist role. His hamstring issue that dogged him in 2012 appears to be fine. Reserve Garrett McIntyre came from out of nowhere (Fresno State in 2006 actually) to provide energy and a little outside pass rush oomph. He looks comfortable in space but struggles to avoid and shed blocks. His effort and passion advanced him over Aaron Maybin, who is mercifully gone. The Jets have a similar sort of player in undrafted rookie OLB Sean Progar, who was more successful than anyone else against No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher last year at Northern Illinois.
The Jets desperately need the David Harris of 2008-10 to return. He’s never been a downhill thumper, but during that time he was at least a sure tackler that took strong angles and reliably cleaned up runners as soon as they hit the second level. However, in the last couple of years Harris has missed way too many tackles and tackling opportunities by getting caught in traffic or trying to run around the block. He’s not fast enough to be effective that way. The Jets need him to be more forceful and aggressive in filling holes and making contact closer to the line of scrimmage. He remains above average in coverage, which keeps him on the field even when he’s struggling against the run. Harris will be relied upon more for leadership as well, as Bart Scott was sent to pasture.
Scott’s replacement is Demario Davis, the team’s 3rd round pick a year ago. Davis is an amazing athlete, tight-skinned and ripped like a pro wrestler with excellent agility. Davis was up and down in limited duty a year ago, but the team is counting on him to make a step forward in his second year. The potential is certainly there. If he can learn to channel his energy and not overreact to every little movement in front of him, Davis has a chance to be a very good inside backer. How quickly he attains that level is the question, and it’s probably not going to come soon enough for this Jets unit. He is smallish for a 3-4 backer.
The depth inside strongly resembles the line. In a word: green. Josh Mauga and Nick Bellore combined for less than 60 snaps last year, registering exactly one tackle that wasn’t on special teams. My pre-draft scouting reports on both players are eerily similar. Both are tough, high-effort, moderately instinctive inside backers with limited range and lacking lateral quickness. There are already rumors that the Jets will be closely watching the waiver wire for more proven depth both inside and outside at backer, and that should surprise no one.
Secondary: The biggest reason for optimism around the Jets is this unit, even though they traded away all-world corner Darrelle Revis. Antonio Cromartie stepped up his game, buried his questionable attitude, and emerged as one of the best corners in the league in his own right. While his past makes sustained focus and continued strong play a legit question, Cromartie sure appears to have embraced the role of being The Man. It would be nice if Cromartie converted more opportunities into big plays, as he picked off only three passes with at least three flat-out drops among his 13 PDs. Still, opposing QBs completed just over 46 percent of throws in his direction, the third best mark in the league. Cromartie also showed more of a willingness to stick his nose in versus the run.
A pair of first round picks will man the other outside spot and the slot. The Jets snared Dee Milliner from Alabama with the 9th overall pick this April, fully expecting the talented youngster to step right into the starting lineup. Milliner has great fluidity and strength for the position. He’s also very quick to pick up on receiver tendencies; the shoulder fake move that beats him in the first quarter won’t beat him in the 4th. He’s at his best in the style the Jets ask of their corners, aggressively attacking the receiver at the line and turning and running on the hip. Milliner doesn’t go backwards very well, and he really fights the ball with his hands. Other than that, he’s a ready-made starter for this defense. Things haven’t worked out quite so well for Kyle Wilson, the team’s 1st rounder in 2010. Last season was his best outing, but even in that capacity he merely rose up to average. One of the more desirable traits in a corner is a short memory when beaten, but Wilson is the type of player that dwells on mistakes and can be taken off his game. He has the athletic ability to thrive in the slot, but he’s never quite developed the route anticipation skills to be really good. This is a big year for Wilson. It would help his cause if he showed more consistent passion in run defense.
The corner depth beyond the top three isn’t pretty but can function okay in small doses. Ellis Lankster was thrust into more action than expected and struggled. He should fare better as the dime back, if he can sneak ahead of Darrin Walls on the depth chart. A late-season practice squad promotion gave Walls a chance to show he belongs, and he played well down the stretch. Walls has the length and physical nature that fit well here. One team observer advised me the team is quietly bullish on the Notre Dame product. Isaiah Trufant plays acceptably as a reserve while thriving on special teams. He’s undersized but intelligent and not afraid to hit anyone to the point where he’s more like a strong safety in the body of a nickel slot corner. Karma caught up with Aaron Berry, who will miss the season after tearing up his knee.
Safety will look considerably different in 2012, as starters Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry are both gone. LaRon’s younger brother Dawan will take his place, coming over from Jacksonville. Despite their close relation, the Landry’s are quite different players. LaRon was more of a centerfielder, albeit a rocked up one. Dawan likes to play closer to the line and is a better tackler, but he doesn’t have the range to the sidelines in coverage. Because the Jets use their corners in press man and isolated so much, this is a calculated decision to help improve the run at the expense of the limited times where Landry will have to cover deep. They also lost some blitzing acumen in the brotherly exchange.
Bell was solid enough in coverage that he didn’t surrender a touchdown, but he also touched just one ball in the air after the opener. His job now falls to the winner of a camp battle between Eagles discard Jaiquawn Jarrett and 2012 7th rounder Antonio Allen. If that doesn’t inspire confidence in you, you’re not alone. Jarrett flamed out miserably in Philly; he was a 2nd round pick in 2011 but didn’t show enough on a truly awful secondary to merit a roster spot in his second season. There is a chance the coaching staff here reaches him. I don’t blame the Jets for giving him a chance and I hope he finds redemption in New York. He’ll get every chance to earn it over Allen, who played poorly in limited duty as a rookie. Fellow rookie Josh Bush saw even less action. The Jets do have an intriguing UDFA in camp in rookie Rontez Miles, a headhunting missile from Cal PA.
Special Teams: A shaky season by Nick Folk brought on camp competition in the form of journeyman Billy Cundiff. Folk missed too many FGs under 50 yards and struggled to produce touchbacks on kickoffs. Punter Robert Malone was stronger, perhaps from such a hefty workload. The return men are solid, presuming Joe McKnight makes the team. He’s a legit threat to take any kickoff to the house, while punt returner Jeremy Kerley has some nifty open field moves and broke one for a touchdown himself. It’s notable that many of the regulars on coverage units are no longer with the team.
Forecast: Long ago I cautioned Jets fans to enjoy the unexpected playoff successes of the early Rex Ryan years, knowing full well it was not going to end well for either Rex or the team. The 2013 season will be that ugly, bitter end. This team has far and away the weakest assembly of offensive talent in the league. It’s possible to win without a great set of weapons if the quarterback is amazing, but the Jets don’t have either. The defense will be solid once again, but being merely solid isn’t good enough to carry this team out of picking in the top 10. Unless the revamped pass rush and overhauled secondary can produce some serious turnovers, it’s simply not possible for this team to score more points than the opponent more than a handful of times. The middle of the schedule is foreboding; the Jets could very well not win a game between September and December and likely won’t be favored to win any games between a Week 3 date hosting the Bills and a Week 14 home match with the Raiders. Even being generous and giving them splits with every AFC East rival, this team maxes out at six wins. I’m pretty confident they only make it halfway there. The New York Jets finish 3-13 and wind up with a top-3 overall pick in the 2014 draft, a pick that will be made by a new coaching regime.