I attended the South Carolina/LSU game this past Saturday, and while in Baton Rouge I was able to talk with some of the more than 20 NFL scouts and execs in attendance. Here are some quotes, tidbits, and off-the-record scuttlebutt from my trip.
Defense was the primary reason everyone was there, as both teams feature several future NFL draft picks on the defensive side of the ball.
LSU DT Sam Montgomery doesn’t get as much public love as teammate DE Barkevious “Keke” Mingo (who just broke the spellchecker), but a plurality of the scouts I talked with and observed think more highly of Montgomery. Some of this is demand for a specific set of skills; everyone wants the next JJ Watt or Justin Smith, a heavy defensive end that can play inside in even-man front passing situations. I cannot stress enough how badly teams covet this sort of player going forward, and to find one that can make the kind of impact that Watt or Smith or Julius Peppers, who has not played in a 3-4 but has the physical skills to do it, can do is rare. He is not as big as those guys but has room to add another 10-15 pounds to his 265ish frame. His run defense is also highly regarded, and Montgomery has shown he can hold leverage against tackles that outweigh him by 40+ pounds. Two different scouts I talked with believe Montgomery can be that sort of player, an impact pass rusher from the 5-technique position. A source very familiar with the LSU program told me Montgomery has added about eight pounds of lower body muscle since spring practice, and it shows. One scout told me if Montgomery can get up to 285 without sacrificing quickness he could go #1 overall. Personally, I don’t see that but top 5 potential is certainly there.
I had Mingo as the #1 overall pick in my first 2013 mock draft, and one scout told me he could see that happening. But others are not so impressed with the junior edge rusher. Mingo is not as bulky as Montgomery, and many in attendance project him as a 3-4 OLB more than a 4-3 rush end. I agree with that assessment. One AFC South scout noted how well Mingo flattened around the edge without losing speed, a trait teams covet. Another scout frantically took notes when Mingo stayed home on backside containment and closed quickly on the QB as he scrambled to his side. Mingo had a fairly quiet game but still seemed to impress the scouting cognoscenti in attendance. He relied more heavily on speed than actual moves or football acumen, and one scout pointed out during the game that “he’s not handling contact well”. There is apparently little doubt Mingo will declare for the draft, though it’s obviously premature for anything official on that front. Expect him to test very well athletically and wind up going in the top 15, right or wrong.
I did some follow-up work with one of the scouts on Mingo (among other things) and he was more direct in his criticism. He called Mingo “flighty” in run defense, meaning he would like to see him attack more and with more power. This scout liked Mingo’s motor but questioned how well he will fare against bigger, quicker linemen in the NFL. “I don’t see a kid there that likes to get his hands dirty. He’s more like a sniper and I want to see a street fighter there…I’ll give (Mingo) this though, he has one of the best closing bursts I’ve seen in a long time, and that can’t be taught”. He doesn’t have grades on prospects yet but told me he is inclined to say Mingo is a late-first round grade that can be an excellent pass rush specialist right away, a la Aldon Smith. This scout works for a team which runs a base 3-4 defense, it should be noted.
The elephant in the room was South Carolina sophomore defensive end Jadeveon Clowney. Because he is not draft eligible until 2014 at the earliest, everyone was very apprehensive to talk about him even off the record. But I can tell you this with absolute confidence: if Clowney were in the 2013 draft and the draft was today, there is no question he would be the #1 overall pick. I heard the names Bruce Smith and Derrick Thomas in conjunction with the freakish Clowney.
I had a distinct interest in two safeties, LSU’s Eric Reid and DJ Swearinger from South Carolina. Both have intriguing potential for the next level, but neither had a particularly strong game. Reid started the first few drives with zero coverage responsibilities, solely playing as an extra linebacker in the box or a spy on agile Gamecocks QB Connor Shaw. It was a look that one NFC East scout particularly liked, and we agreed that Reid did well in that capacity as we chatted postgame. Reid made a couple of walloping hits, though as the same NFC East scout noted he tends to hit too high. In coverage he did snare an interception when the receiver fell down but did not show great range, arriving a step late on a couple of passes and taking poor pursuit angles at times. The general vibe is that Reid is solid but not spectacular, but his opportunism and size will likely keep him in the top 50 overall picks.
Swearinger had a poor showcase night. He often played quite passively, often arriving to the ball after the play had already been made. I counted at least 7 instances where he had a chance to make a play but hesitated, charging in to clean up instead of instigate the action. When he did get to the ball his tackling form was more drag and drop than hit and wrap. I was not the only one disappointed; one scout asked me if I saw any reason why he should give Swearinger a high mark for the game, and I couldn’t do anything but shrug my shoulders. He has played much better in other games (notably Georgia a week earlier), so all hope is not lost, but this was not a good game for Swearinger.
There has been a lot of high praise for Gamecocks RB Marcus Lattimore, but it seems the draftnik community is higher on him than the scouts I talked with. Some of this could be a function of circumstance; LSU focused heavily on snuffing him out and largely succeeded. The knee injury and heavy usage are legitimate concerns with several scouts I talked with beyond this game. Lattimore spent most of his sideline time working with one trainer or another, trying to stay loose and tending to some minor wounds. One personnel man reiterated to me that the demand for running backs high in the draft just isn’t what it used to be, and that to him Lattimore looks more in the David Wilson/Mark Ingram range (late 20s-early 30s) than Trent Richardson Top 10 turf.
SC wideout Ace Sanders really impressed with his suddenness and pure speed. He is only a junior and one scout advised me he hadn’t really evaluated Sanders much, but he was intrigued by how well he got open and created with the ball in his hands. My personal observation: Sanders runs the sluggo route a lot like Percy Harvin, able to almost stop at the top and then explode to full speed right away on the “go” part of the route. His top gear is exceptional, and he sets up his speed by changing tempo on a dime. These are traits that scouts love, but he had a drop in the game and slipped on the Reid INT, and Sanders also was not very effective as a blocker. A strong punt return, a week after turning a muff into a touchdown, are nice insurance that Sanders can contribute early on special teams and add draft value. I have no idea about his intentions, but there are whispers he won’t be back in Columbia.
Two players that weren’t in this game but got some discussion:
Mississippi State CB Johnthan Banks has assumed the top of the corner heap, and it’s very hard to find any scout with anything really negative to say about the senior. One scout noted how much Banks has evolved as a leader for the Bulldogs, saying the coaches told him Banks could line up the defense if needed and often leads drills in practice. Lack of top-end speed is the most legitimate knock on Banks, but his length and natural anticipation help compensate and he’s no worse than a low 4.5 speed guy. Look for him to be a top 15 pick and for his stock to rise once coaches get more involved in the evaluation process; NFL defensive coordinators are going to love Banks.
Arkansas WR Cobi Hamilton continues to be the bright spot in an otherwise dark season for the Razorbacks. One scout who attended an Arkansas practice earlier in the week raved about Hamilton’s maturity and attention to detail. The scout told me Hamilton has done a good job insulating himself from the negativity that pervades the program by tirelessly working on his craft and hitting the weight room. Hamilton has good but not great measurables (6’2”, 208, 4.49 estimated 40 time) but has strong footwork and good strength, plus excellent hands. Should Hamilton clock in the low 4.4s and nail the agility drills in workouts (he’s working hard on them already) he could crack the bottom of the first round, though he is more likely to be in the 40-65 overall range. The scout was not as kind to Hamilton’s QB, Tyler Wilson, saying the concussion issue is a serious impediment in his opinion.
Look for an updated mock draft next week and more scouting notes every Monday!