*Pythagorean winning percentage (Projected record) 1. New England Patriots: 70.7 (11.3-4.7) Tom Brady has an ungodly 148.4 passer rating against the blitz this season. 2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 66.8 (10.7-5.3) Now a full year removed away from his accident, Ben Roethlisberger has a 110.2 passer rating, up from his 75.4 a season ago. This may be the week Willie Parker really get going. 3. Indianapolis Colts: 64.0 (10.2-5.8) How will the Colts be able to effectively rush the passer without Dwight Freeney? 4. Green Bay Packers: 61.6 (9.9-6.1) Brett Favre (96.2) is having the second best season of his career. 5. Dallas Cowboys: 60.3 (9.6-6.4) Marion Barber is 6th in the NFL with 5.1 yards per carry. 6. Seattle Seahawks: 57.5 (9.2-6.8) The return of D.J. Hackett has sparked the passing attack, but if Deion Branch (15.6 yards per reception) can get healthy, then Matt Hasselbeck will have the deepest receiver corps (also factor in Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson) in the NFC. 7. Tennessee Titans: 53.9 (8.6-7.4) Vince Young has a passer rating of 62.2 (down from 66.7 last year) and 3.9 yards per carry (down from 6.7 last year). 8. New York Giants: 53.7 (8.6-7.4) Eli Manning actually has a better passer rating in losses (89.4) than he does in wins (72.4). 9. San Diego Chargers: 53.4 (8.5-7.5) Philip Rivers has already thrown for more interceptions in 2007 (10) than he did in all of 2006 (9). 10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 53.2 (8.5-7.5) Tampa Bay has given up the 4th fewest amount of first downs for the season. 11. Jacksonville Jaguars: 52.7 (8.4-7.6) David Garrard (102.9) actually has the 4th best passer rating in the NFL. 12. Philadelphia Eagles: 51.2 (8.2-7.8) The Eagles are 4-0 when Brian Westbrook carries the ball at least 20 times. 13. Detroit Lions: 50.6 (8.1-7.9) The Lions have a +7 take-away/give-away for the season. 14. Cleveland Browns: 49.1 (7.9-8.1) Braylon Edwards is averaging 17.5 yards per reception and is second in the NFL with 10 touchdowns. 15. Baltimore Ravens: 49.1 (7.9-8.1) Whether it?s been Kyle Boller or Steve McNair, the Ravens have struggled with their passing game (74.0 passer rating). 16. Arizona Cardinals: 49.1 (7.9-8.1) The Cardinals only yield 302.8 yards per game, but allow 21.7 points. 17. Washington Redskins: 47.8 (7.7-8.3) Jason Campbell?s season must be viewed as a success in light of the dismal play of Santana Moss. Veterans like Keenan McCardell and James Thrash have been crucial. 18. New Orleans Saints: 47.5 (7.6-8.4) Reggie Bush has caught 55 balls this season already, more than Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, Antonio Gates and Terrell Owens. 19. Houston Texans: 47.3 (7.6-8.4) The Texans have a -8 take-away/give-away this year, only the Saints (their opponent this week) have been worse. 20. Minnesota Vikings: 46.9 (7.5-8.5) Chester Taylor (5.0 yards per carry) has been an effective back this season and Brad Childress will certainly need him this week. 21. Cincinnati Bengals: 46.6 (7.5-8.5) How has the absence of Rudi Johnson affected the Bengals? passing game? 22. Buffalo Bills: 46.3 (7.4-8.6) The Bills may need Dwayne Wright this Sunday who has rushed for .8 yards per carry less than Marshawn Lynch. 23. Chicago Bears: 46.3 (7.4-8.6) Cedric Benson?s 3.0 yards per carry is by far the lowest amongst backs with at least 300 yards. 24. Carolina Panthers: 45.3 (7.3-8.7) It is still a wonder why DeAngelo Williams (5.0 yards per carry) can?t get more play? 25. Oakland Raiders: 44.9 (7.2-8.8) Daunte Culpepper has been far more productive (73.3) than Josh McCown (59.5) this season, yet Lane Kiffin is reluctant to hand the former Vikings? All-Pro the job even when McCown is injured. 26. Kansas City Chiefs: 43.8 (7.0-9.0) In his limited action, Brodie Croyle has been as effective as the veteran Damon Huard, so Herm Edwards is wise to make the change at this point in the season. With Larry Johnson out, Croyle?s mobility will be an obvious advantage. 27. Atlanta Falcons: 42.6 (6.8-9.2) Jerious Norwood averages almost twice as many yards per attempt than Warrick Dunn. 28. New York Jets: 41.1 (6.6-9.4) Chad Pennington (87.5) has been a far better quarterback than Kellen Clemens (59.3) this season. The Jets and Dolphins are both far better than their record indicates. 29. Miami Dolphins: 40.6 (6.5-9.5) Jesse Chatman and Ronnie Brown have identical yards per carry averages (5.1), but Brown was far more effective as a receiver (10.0 vs. 6.2). 30. Denver Broncos: 39.1 (6.3-9.7) The Travis Henry/Javon Walker injuries have created a nightmare for Mike Shanahan, but somehow they are still in the playoff picture. 31. St. Louis Rams: 35.4 (5.7-10.3) The Rams? QBs have been sacked 14 more times than their opponents. 32. San Francisco 49ers: 33.1 (5.3-10.7) The 49ers have the fewest number of 1st downs (113) this season in the entire NFL. The second to last team (Atlanta and Buffalo with 139) are in an entirely different strata.