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Watching the NFL Hall of Fame induction ceremony this past Saturday really set me off. My disgust began with a grunt. Then a mumble soon followed by exclamations toward my 64? television screen. Third to last or, in other words, third place is where the NFL ranked Jerry Rice to give his Hall of Fame acceptance speech this past Saturday in Canton Ohio (as if the rest of America and 49er fans needed any more cause to hate the Dallas Cowboys)! Did Emmitt Smith have a statistic created because of his play to match what Rice did with YAC? Perhaps there will be never be another player like Emmitt Smith, but this much is certain; there will NEVER be another Jerry Rice.
As I continued to curse at my TV and share my disdain with friends via text messages, Facebook, and any other medium I could get my hands on, I actually tried to determine whether any of today?s stars even have a chance of catching up with all of Rice?s records & milestones. I realize how different the game is today compared to when Rice entered the NFL. Before the 49ers in the early 1980?s, offensive schemes were stuck in the Stone Ages with offensive linemen knocking defensive linemen off the ball to move the sticks three yards in a cloud of dust.
As former 49er Center Randy Cross said in an interview with NFL Network, ?If you didn?t (run the ball like everyone else) then that just wasn?t football.?
So, given the evolution of today?s NFL passing game, will records such as Jerry Rice?s all-time Touchdown record ever be broken?
With my hero?s honor to protect, I immediately began my quest to validate any claim to dethrone him as the greatest. I took nine of today?s best wide receivers and calculated what it would take for them to reach Jerry?s all-time records. I projected each of these nine receivers to have a 17 season career which would somewhat match what Rice did (1987 strike shortened year, 1997 he missed the entire season due to injury, and I combined the last two seasons he had with Oakland & Seattle). As you can see below, the numbers don?t lie.
NAME
TD TOTAL
TD'S NEEDED
NFL yrs
Yrs ADDED
AVG TD'S/YEAR NEEDED
CAREER HIGH
TOTAL SEASONS*
B.Marshall
25
182
4
13 yrs
14/yr
10 TD's 2009
17 years
A.Johnson
42
165
7
10 yrs
18.33/yr
9 TD's 2009
17 years
R.Moss
149
58
12
5 yrs
11.6/yr
23 TD's 2007
17 years
R.Wayne
63
144
9
8 yrs
18/yr
12 TD's 2004
17 years
L.Fitzgerald
59
148
6
11 yrs
13.5/yr
13 TD's 2009
17 years
T.Owens
147
61
14
3 yrs
20.33/yr
16 TD's 2001
17 years
R.White
27
182
5
12 yrs
15.16/yr
11 TD's 2009
17 years
S. Smith (CAR)
52
157
9
6 yrs
26.66/yr
12 TD's 2005
17 years
G. Jennings
28
179
4
13 yrs
13.76/yr
12 TD's 2007
17 years
NAME
YDS TOTAL
YARDS NEEDED
NFL yrs
Yrs ADDED
AVG YARDS/YEAR NEEDED
CAREER HIGH
TOTAL SEASONS*
B.Marshall
4,019
18,876
4
13 yrs
1,452/yr
1,325yds 2007
17 years
A.Johnson
7,948
14,947
7
10 yrs
1,495/yr
1,575yds 2008
17 years
R.Moss
14,465
8,430
12
5 yrs
1,686/yr
1,632yds 2003
17 years
R.Wayne
9,393
13,592
9
8 yrs
1,699/yr
1,510yds 2007
17 years
L.Fitzgerald
7,067
15,828
6
11 yrs
1,439/yr
1,431yds 2008
17 years
T.Owens
14,951
7,944
14
3 yrs
2,648/yr
1,451yds 2000
17 years
R.White
4,689
18,206
5
12 yrs
1,517/yr
1,382yds 2008
17 years
S. Smith (CAR)
8,330
14,565
9
6 yrs
2,427/yr
1,563yds 2005
17 years
G. Jennings
3,957
18,938
4
13 yrs
1,457/yr
1,292yds 2008
17 years
NAME
REC TOTAL
REC NEEDED
NFL yrs
Yrs ADDED
AVG REC/YEAR NEEDED
CAREER HIGH
TOTAL SEASONS*
B.Marshall
327
1,222
4
13 yrs
94/yr
104rec 2008
17 years
A.Johnson
587
962
7
10 yrs
96.2/yr
115rec 2008
17 years
R.Moss
926
623
12
5 yrs
124.6/yr
111rec 2003
17 years
R.Wayne
676
873
9
8 yrs
109/yr
104rec 2007
17 years
L.Fitzgerald
523
1,026
6
11 yrs
93.2d/yr
103rec 2005
17 years
T.Owens
1,006
543
14
3 yrs
181/yr
100rec 2002
17 years
R.White
315
1,234
5
12 yrs
102.8/yr
88rec 2008
17 years
S. Smith (CAR)
574
975
9
6 yrs
162.5/yr
103rec 2005
17 years
G. Jennings
246
1,303
4
13 yrs
100.2/yr
80rec 2008
17 years
Randy Moss would need to continue being one of the top three receivers in the game for the next five seasons to surpass Rice?s touchdown record. It?s not much of a stretch for Moss to accomplish this but by the projected final season; he?d be 38 years old. Moss? game is about speed & quickness to break away from defenders to get open. Old age and quickness aren?t exactly synonymous but we?d all be foolish to doubt his special abilities.
Andre Johnson is intriguing because he?s in his prime. Arguably the best wide receiver in the game today he has size and strength to go along with pretty good speed. As with Brandon Marshall, he?d need to continue his status as the best wide receiver in the game for the next 10 years if there is any hope. Ultimately, if we went by these numbers, Jerry Rice is the equivalent of Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, & Brandon Marshall combined. To say that he was one of a kind is quite an understatement.
One would assume that with a record 12 Quarterbacks that threw for at least 4,000 yards in 2009, the passing game has exploded like never before. On the contrary, 2009 was a very average year for passing yards since the liberal passing rule changes in 1978 (the NFL began enforcing the ?pass interference? rule as we know it today). It?s VERY hard to believe but it?s true. As you can see below, although there are more proficient quarterbacks today whom amass lots of yardage, on average the league?s yardage per year are the same (due to the NFL expanding from 28 teams to 32, average/team are the only fair comparison).
YEAR
AVG yds
1980
3426
1981
3561
*1982
1987
1983
3604
1984
3651
1985
3625
1986
3611
*1987
3352
1988
3486
1989
3659
1990
3382
1991
3432
1992
3286
1993
3446
1994
3638
1995
3768
1996
3555
1997
3509
1998
3536
1999
3653
2000
3552
2001
3536
2002
3631
2003
3420
2004
3604
2005
3491
2006
3508
112,277
2007
3428
109,725
2008
3380
108,177
2009
3495
111,851
Looking over Rice?s career, I realize how ironic it was that he was (whether intentionally or not) ranked the ?third? speaker. After all, Rice was passed up by 15 other NFL teams (two of which took Wide Receivers: New York Jets took Al Toon and the Cincinnati Bengals took Eddie Brown, third WR taken) in the 1985 NFL Draft. I suppose it?s only fitting that he exits the NFL the same way he came in: third.
Also fitting was that Rice once again be allowed to demonstrate the ultimate definition of class, one last time. He did so on every one of his 207 Touchdowns, every milestone he set, every time he dealt with the media, and even when he was let go by the 49ers, traded by the Raiders, let go again by the Seahawks & finally demoted to third (third again) on the depth chart by the Broncos.
Growing up in the Bay Area and witnessing Rice?s career firsthand in Section 105 every home game, I knew that there would never be another one quite like No. 80. This past Saturday the NFL recognized not only a Hall of Famer, they recognized the best offensive player there EVER will be. Jerry Rice is the benchmark for any wide receiver to be called ?great?, even if the Hall of Fame committee failed to recognize him as such.
