 |
| NFL Columns |
|
| Search |
|
|
|
|
| Draft Sim ID |
|
| Authored by Andrew Perna - 17th January, 2008 - 12:09 pm
 As all good things must, my perfect prediction record for the NFL playoffs came to an end last weekend when the Chargers upset the Colts, and the Giants knocked off the rival Cowboys.
Through the postseason?s first eight games I stand a respectable 6-for-8 with my picks as does my RealGM counterpart Jeff Risdon, who gained a game on me in the divisional round. Make sure you check out Risdon?s predictions for this weekend in his: Championship Round Forecast.
San Diego?s upset of Indianapolis was shocking, but in the end it just helped make my prediction easier heading into Sunday?s AFC Title Game.
I said last week that Eli Manning would be the wild card against the Cowboys, and for the third week in a row he delivered for the Giants. As he did for a majority of the fantasy season, Eli caught me off guard as he managed a terrific game against a very good Dallas team.
I?ve been trying to delay my predictions as long as possible because the fact that there are only three games left in the NFL season has me a little depressed. Sure, basketball is in full swing and baseball is just a few months away, but there?s nothing like a Sunday filled with pigskin.
San Diego @ New England, Sunday 3:00PM EST
The biggest disappointment in the wake of the Colts? loss to the Chargers is this game which should have pitted Indianapolis against the Patriots. It would have made for another classic battle with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning going head-to-head for AFC supremacy and the title of NFL?s new most marketable quarterback.
San Diego doesn?t have much of a shot against New England, who haven?t lost since last year?s title game against Indianapolis. With both Philip Rivers and LaDainian Tomlinson nursing injuries, the chances of a Charger upset have become much smaller.
Billy Volek did a great job on one series against the Colts, but if San Diego needs him to run the offense over an extended period of time against the Pats, Norv Turner will be popping Tylenol midway through the first quarter. Even Rivers, who enjoyed running his mouth against the crowd in Indianapolis, is going to have a hard time playing efficiently against New England?s savvy defense.
This is the biggest game of both Rivers? and Tomlinson?s careers, and it couldn?t have come against a worse team. If Bill Belichick can scheme his way into the head of Peyton, what on earth is he going to do to Rivers?
If their early season battle in Foxboro was any indication, the Patriots are going to leave Rivers red-faced with no one to scream at but himself.
The Chargers do have a spectacular defense which will have to play perfectly in order to give San Diego a shot at handing New England their first loss of the season. If Shawne Merriman and Antonio Cromartie have big days at Gillette Stadium, that might allow the Chargers to overcome the offensive shortcomings their injured stars might suffer against the Patriots.
Brady and New England have come too far to let a team like San Diego, no matter how hot they may seem, come into their backyard and keep them from a date in Arizona. It?s going to be ugly but just how ugly remains to be seen.
New England 45, San Diego 24
N.Y. Giants @ Green Bay, Sunday 6:30PM EST
Unless you?re a Giants? fan, I don?t think there?s anyone in the country rooting against Brett Favre and the resurgent Packers. The Cowboys may be America?s team, but Green Bay has captured the heart of the nation behind Favre?s incredible season.
Green Bay should attempt to run over New York like the Cowboys? Marion Barber did in the first half last weekend, using Ryan Grant in the same capacity. The only problem lies in Grant?s running style. Ryan might have a slight height advantage over Barber but doesn?t posses the same smash-mouth running style.
Regardless, Grant will be the key against the Giants? elite pass rush. Michael Strahan and company will aim to make things difficult for Favre, who has learned to dump off to Grant when things don?t look promising downfield. Grant only caught 30 passes this season but was the featured back in just nine of Green Bay?s sixteen games.
Tom Coughlin and the Giants are likely to adopt the same offensive strategy, having seen what Green Bay?s tough secondary did to the Seahawks? passing game in the snow last weekend. The combination of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw is better than Grant, who gets the lion?s share of the carries for the Packers.
Alright, four paragraphs into my analysis of the NFC Championship game and I?ve yet to mention the effect Favre and Manning will have on this game at length.
I?m trying very hard not to compare Manning to Favre, but Eli does take some of the same chances the elder does when trying to fit a pass in a tight spot. Whether those passes are just Eli?s way of trying to win at all costs, similar to Favre, or just careless mistakes made by a quarterback who hasn?t yet reached his potential ? remains to be seen.
Eli can silence his critics with a win against the legendary Favre at Lambeau Field on Sunday, but doing so won?t be easy. However, I?ve been waiting for the Packers to slip up all season long, and I think they finally will against the red-hot Giants. New York has nothing to lose at this point with Green Bay having all the pressure on their shoulders.
The tristate media is tough, but even the harshest of critics will be forced to give Coughlin and Manning their due after advancing to the NFC title game and Super Bowl, despite a multitude of injuries and whirlwinds of highs and lows. Even though Colts lost to the Chargers last weekend, the Manning family will have a reason to congregate at the Super Bowl in a few weeks as Eli helps represent the NFC.
N.Y. Giants 28, Green Bay 24
Who do you think will face off in the Super Bowl? Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com |
