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| Jeff Risdon. 6th September, 2011 - 6:02 pm
 2010 Record: 6-10
Point Differential: -37
Turnover Margin: even
Sack Differential: -2
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 7th
Passing: 4th
3rd Down: 9th
Scoring: 11th
QB: Matt Schaub has settled in as a pretty effective starting quarterback in Houston, finally proving he can stay healthy and direct a lot of moving pieces into a very productive offense. He is a different kind of franchise QB in that he does not really excel at any one skill but really does not lack anything either; he is above average at just about everything, below average at nothing. You need him to be a pocket passer, he can do it. Ask him to keep plays alive with his legs and run for a first down, bingo. Throw the back shoulder fade in the red zone, fine. Play action fake, rollout pass down the seam that splits the coverage, he can do it. Every so often he loses his touch and airmails a few sideline throws, but Schaub has earned the confidence of his teammates and the coaching staff. Throwing for 9000 yards and 53 touchdowns in two years will do that for a guy...
Matt Leinart is somewhat surprisingly back as the backup. He actually spent 2010 behind Dan Orlovsky as the #3, but chose to stay in the QB-friendly system and move up one spot rather than explore free agency and attempt to win a starting gig elsewhere. In the first three weeks of camp, Leinart was the toast of Texans talk, with one local columnist boldly declaring Leinart could be just as good as Schaub. Then the actual preseason games started, and we all saw why Leinart has been a major disappointment so far. To put it simply, he cannot handle the speed or complexity of the NFL game. The pressure, both from the defense and from his internal forces, overwhelms what is normally a very confident guy. Leinart is the classic example of the virtuoso pianist that cannot even play chopsticks when in front of a large crowd under the bright lights.
Rookie 6th rounder TJ Yates has impressed enough that he just might usurp Leinart by the end of the year. He handles himself with poise and has shown better-than-expected arm strength and mobility. If he can continue to mature and adjust to the bigger/faster/stronger NFL--and he certainly has the potential to do so--Yates has a very promising future as a Billy Volek-like quality backup that can steer the ship for a week or two if needed.
RB: Arian Foster won the league rushing title last year, and he will contend for the title again if he stays healthy. The "staying healthy" part might prove problematic, however, as Foster is iffy for the opener with a gimpy hamstring that is an aggravation of a previous injury. Foster burst onto the scene last year with an amazing blend of balance, vision, and sneaky bursts of speed that keeps defenders from getting a clean shot. Foster also has the vaunted "chase gear" in the open field that allows him to break the long highlight reel runs. The only real questions are his health and his mindset, and the latter stems out of a general misunderstanding of his unique, free-spirited personality.
Derrick Ward was excellent as the backup a year ago, recording the highest TD per attempt ratio of any qualifying back. He is also an accomplished receiver, which should keep him ahead of Ben Tate in the battle for carries behind Foster. Tate missed his rookie year with a broken ankle, but he has been electrifying during camp and preseason, demonstrating why the Texans used a 2nd round pick on him last year. He is a little smaller than Ward but runs like a bigger man, with good power and leg drive. Former rookie wunderkind Steve Slaton will be lucky to even make the team after a couple of injury-plagued campaigns, as Chris Ogbonnaya has also looked very good in camp and comes with a cheaper price tag. The Texans are loaded at running back.
Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach took his talents to Baltimore after the Texans (wisely) chose not to match his asking price. Lawrence Vickers will take over the role. While not as much of a thumper as a lead blocker, Vickers can actually catch the ball and welcomes a few cracks as the short-yardage back. Expect minimal dropoff in running production, and that is not a knock on Leach, whose effusive enthusiasm will be missed in the locker room.
WR/TE: This is more aptly called Andre Johnson and the Others. While that is underestimating the supporting talent, there is no question that Andre Johnson is the primary weapon and best talent by a wide margin. Johnson is one of the most physically blessed receivers in the league and has arguably the best hands of anyone. He has the ability to run any route to any part of the field, and his body control and smoothness of motion make him a very difficult mark. Johnson and Schaub have a special connection across the intermediate middle, and Johnson is seemingly always open on those routes. The biggest complaint remains his inability to crack double digits on the touchdown front, and he has never been a particularly effective red zone receiver despite being much bigger and a better leaper than most corners. That leads to a larger criticism that the Houston media dare never speak, though off the record you hear it a lot: Johnson is too quiet and unemotional. He is the least assuming superstar you will ever meet, certainly at the diva role of wide receiver, and it is not always easy to function when your most talented player is not a leader.
Kevin Walter is the "number two" receiver, but in reality he is more like a #4 that happens to get thrown the ball a lot. He has good hands and reliably trolls the routes underneath Johnson and behind Owen Daniels, doing most of his work in between the linebackers and safeties between the hash marks. Walter is a very effective blocker and a smart enough guy to realize he is more valuable here than he would be anywhere else. Jacoby Jones is far more physically gifted (read: bigger, faster, stronger) but his maddening inconsistency keeps him a rather underwhelming threat. He was often terrible in 2010 after flashing glimpses of being a good downfield threat the year before. One Texans observer had him down for 11 drops and literally scores of incorrect routes run, and the fact he found no takers in free agency speaks to how frustrating Jones can be. Defenses still have to respect his deep speed, but he is a lower-tier #3 receiver that cannot play in the slot.
The rest of the receiving corps is even worse. Undrafted rookie Lestar Jean was probably going to leap over Jones on the depth chart, but he wound up on IR. Look for him next year, the kid has talent. That leaves Dorin Dickerson, a hybrid WR/TE that is too skinny to play tight end and too slow to play wideout; Trindon Holiday, all 5-foot-5 of him; undrafted rookie Jeff Maehl, who has struggled to get open even against the Texans brutal secondary in camp; and fellow undrafted rookie Terrence Toliver, who has the same problem as Maehl but also drops too many balls. In an act of desperation the Texans signed Lions castoff Bryant Johnson, who is at least savvy enough to realize he can make the roster here and collect some paychecks for making 10 catches for 82 yards with two holding penalties and a drop or two.
Thankfully, the Texans are deep and talented at tight end. That presumes Owen Daniels can stay healthy, which has been an issue. OD gets little national attention but he is one of the better receiving tight ends in the league, with enough speed to stretch the seam and just enough shiftiness to threaten after the catch. He is a solid enough blocker to play in-line, which makes him a bit unusual these days. He has blown out his knee three times, so every hit could be his last. Joel Dreessen filled in admirably when Daniels was unable to go last year, and he does a lot of the same things as OD but a half-step slower. He is an excellent red zone weapon and once the ball gets in his mitts it will not be dislodged by anyone. James Casey spent most of the offseason learning to play fullback, and he looked darn good at it, but he is also a tight end by trade. He is probably the best #3 tight end in the league and the Texans will use him in a variety of ways, including slot receiver if nobody else steps up.
OL: This is one of the more underrated units in the league. Comprised mainly of slightly above-average talent, the line functions well as a group. Right tackle Eric Winston is the best talent of the bunch, a vocal team leader and very good run blocker. He is also the biggest of the linemen at 318 pounds, which is collectively smaller than most teams trot out these days. Winston does tend to lunge too much in pass protection, but he is not easy to beat cleanly and knows how to compensate against great speed. His bookend is Duane Brown, probably the weak link on the line. That is overstating his deficiencies, but Brown has always struggled against outside speed and particularly against 3-4 fronts. Brown does do a fine job of smashmouth run blocking on the left side, and he has the athleticism to get to the second level. That helped Arian Foster, a runner that likes to cut back across the grain, quite a bit. Brown missed four games last year for violating the performance enhancing drug policy, so it bears watching if he can keep his veins clean and remain effective.
The inside linemen lack sexy names but work very well together. Center Chris Myers (not the milquetoast sportscaster) is as good of a snapper as anyone, and he moves his feet very well. Big nose tackles can blow him backwards, but he is scrappy enough to hold his own until help arrives. At left guard, Wade Smith brought stability and tenacity to a position that had long been an anathema in Houston. He committed just one accepted penalty after September ended. The Texans have two right guards, Mike Brisiel and Antoine Caldwell, that are essentially interchangeable and equally effective. With Caldwell injured during preseason, expect more of native Texan Brisiel early on. He has a slight edge in pass protection, while Caldwell is a little strong as a run blocker.
The depth is extremely thin thanks to some camp injuries that wiped out all the projected interior reserves. Rashad Butler is the top reserve tackle and played okay in the absence of Brown a year ago. Speedy pass rushers are a real problem for Butler, but he can function in limited duty. Cody Wallace--another native Texan--is the backup center and plays much like Myers, only at a lesser level. The Texans anticipate being very active in acquiring at least one relatively seasoned reserve linemen off the cutting floor after preseason ends.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 14th
Passing: 32nd
3rd Down: 20th
Scoring: 29th
DL: Houston is changing from a 4-3 scheme to new Defensive Coordinator Wade Philips and his preferred 3-4 attacking defense. That means the linemen will have new responsibilities and different expectations. That should suit left end Antonio Smith just fine, as it is a return to what he did very well in Arizona. Smith was decent last year, but really needs to finish more of his forays into the backfield. He was most successful last year attacking in the B gap (between the G and T), and in the scheme of Philips he will not have to worry about the outside responsibilities that slowed him down a year ago.
The right side will be manned by first round pick JJ Watt, and he seems an ideal fit for the position. Watt has a relentless motor and a good blend of strength, initial burst, and nastiness. He has not looked out of his element in preseason action, and he has quickly assumed a lot of leadership duties--a very welcome plus. He also has enough bulk to slide inside when the Texans go to a four-man front. He should be considered a good candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year, though he probably will not register enough sacks (my guess: 4.5) to win.
Nose tackle is the biggest question. Previous DT roster filler Earl Mitchell and Shaun Cody have waged a battle over the summer for the starting role, with Mitchell the likely winner. Neither fits either mold that Philips has utilized in the past, the ginormous Ted Washington type or the hyper-agile Jay Ratliff type. Mitchell and Cody are both 305-pound pluggers that neither penetrate nor anchor against double teams. None of the rest of the depth can fill the role either, as Damione Lewis is suited to play end on running downs and Tim Bulman lacks the base strength. Tim Jamison has had a nice preseason, and that could translate into an expanded role for him at end as well.
LB: The talk all focuses on Mario Williams moving from end to outside linebacker, and the former #1 overall pick has a great deal of pressure on him to quickly become an impact edge rusher in the line of Demarcus Ware or Derrick Thomas. Williams shed a lot of bulk but is still much larger than most OLBs, and one of the reasons he has never quite met expectations is that he is not loaded with quick-twitch ability. 2011 will be a year of transition and growing pains for Super Mario. That is not to say he will not have good games or find success, but expect some uneasiness and ugly moments as well. Philips has hinted that Williams will play some with his hand down in a 4-man front, and that familiarity could spawn a lot of success in small doses.
On the other side, Connor Barwin hopes to recover from a truly ugly broken leg and nail down the spot. Like Williams, he is transitioning from end to linebacker, but he is also still making the transition from tight end, where he played at Cincinnati until two years ago. That experience might actually assist Barwin at handling the "playing in space" component that generally gives most guys making the transition the most trouble. Like Williams, the preseason has shown some positive flashes and some gaffes that show the learning curve is pretty big. Rookie Brooks Reed will see a lot of action as a pass rushing specialist. He looks a lot like Clay Matthews, with the lean musculature and flowing blond hair. The Texans will happily take anything remotely close to Matthews. I was not a big Reed fan heading into the draft, as he is too straight-linish and struggled to avoid and get off blocks. He has impressed with his burst in preseason action, so there is reason for optimism. Reserve Jesse Nading appears a better fit in the new scheme, though he will see more action on special teams.
The inside backers are loaded with potential, and how much of that potential gets realized will be the difference between this defense being much improved or simply a little better. Demeco Ryans has been a reliable tackling machine in the middle, and he has the physical assets to make the transition smoothly. He tore his Achilles last year, and the team has kept him under tight wraps this offseason during his rehab. Ryans has never been much of a playmaker, however; he has created just 7 turnovers and notched 8 sacks in his 5 seasons. The playmaker of the bunch is supposed to be Brian Cushing, the other starting inside backer. Cushing was one of the best rookie defensive playmakers in recent memory two years ago, piling up 134 tackles, 4 INTs, 5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles and generally blowing up players all over the field. Alas, Cushing was busted for performance enhancing drugs, which was not exactly a shocking development to most observers. After sitting out his four-game suspension, Cushing came back "clean"...and was a very ordinary player. It was like watching a freshly neutered pooch running at a dog park full of bitches; the will was still there, but the actions just were not possible anymore. He came back from the lockout looking less inflated but still gimpy from a bum knee, and his career has been dogged by numerous soft-tissue injuries. A return to his awesome rookie season is almost certainly never going to happen, but in the new defense Cushing could be in a favorable position to make more plays than a year ago. The team desperately needs him to regain his ability to force turnovers. Second-year player Daryl Sharpton played well in limited duty a year ago, and he will see time in obvious passing situations due to his coverage skills. Xavier Adibi has never stayed healthy long enough to show anything, though he has had a great camp and preseason.
Secondary: As bad as the numbers look, the secondary was actually far worse than the stats would lead you to believe. Kareem Jackson entered his rookie season as the presumed #1 corner after being a first round pick from Alabama. The thinking was that Alabama coach Nick Saban is a secondary guru with NFL experience and Jackson had the size and confidence to step right in. That could not have been more wrong; Jackson bombed in press coverage and looked like he was running in mud while receivers blew past him with alarming frequency. When the Texans tried playing him more in off-coverage, Jackson was slow to react and too passive once he did. It is too early to write him off, but Jackson has not looked much better in preseason work. He has lost his starting spot and will need to play well as the nickel if he wants to make the team in 2012. His flopping led to the team going out and signing a legit #1 corner in Johnathan Joseph, who happily took the money that the Texans dangled in their vain attempt to lure Nnamdi Asomugha.
Joseph is a playmaking corner on a team that has not had one since Dunta Robinson was a rookie all those years ago. In Cincinnati, Joseph played an aggressive man cover style where he was frequently in the face of the receiver and challenging for the ball in the air. Injuries have been an issue, but even at his worst Joseph is scads better than anything the Texans had last year. He is also a very good run support corner. Jason Allen started his career much like Jackson, a first-round disaster that washed out of Miami (drafted by Saban, no less) because he was too slow and cautious. He played better upon his arrival in Houston, getting his hands on a lot of balls and benefitting from lowered expectations and the change of scenery. Allen has the size of a safety but unfortunately moves likes one as well, which leaves him very vulnerable to quickness. He can be an adequate starter if given quality over-the-top help from the safety.
Both safeties are new, thank God. Bernard Pollard and Eugene Wilson were a trainwreck as a duo in coverage a year ago, and neither will be missed. Glover Quin moves to free safety from corner, where he was the best cover man a year ago. That is akin to being the least stinky pig at the county fair. Quin embraced the long-anticipated move and has impressed with his quick mastery of the Wade Philips defense and his leadership. Still, he is a marginal #3 cornerback best known for dropping numerous INTs transitioning to safety. He cannot be any worse than Wilson though.
Danieal Manning represents the other free agency foray in the secondary, coming from Chicago and taking over for Pollard. Manning is a major upgrade in pass coverage (Bears fans insert guffaw here) and has the recovery speed to compensate when he is late to diagnose his role in the play...which does happen more than it should. He is not the in-the-box thumper against the run that Pollard was, but Manning is not afraid to lower the boom and fills the hole quickly. He is also adept at chasing down the receiver, which he will certainly get a lot of practice at with Jackson and Allen playing corner.
Secondary depth is comprised mainly of players with journeyman potential. Tory Nolan is adequate as a #3 safety and he aggressively goes after every ball in the air. Brice McCain has adapted well to the new defense and could see more action if Jackson and/or Allen flop once again. Rookie 3rd rounder Brandon Harris has the attributes to play in the slot but has not looked quick enough in preseason action. I was not a fan of his coming out of Miami. One to watch: Sherrick McManis, a rail-thin second-year player with good natural instincts. New secondary coach Van Joseph (a monumental upgrade!) has glowed about McManis and McCain all summer.
Special Teams: Neil Rackers had a strong initial season in Houston, and kicking off the Reliant Field turf added an extra couple of yards to his range. Antique punter Matt Turk has been replaced by former Bear Brad Maynard, no spring chicken himself. Turk had issues getting adequate hang time, which allowed some costly returns and put more pressure on some pretty pedestrian coverage units.
Houston really struggled at the return game, as Jacoby Jones was listless and ineffective as the return specialist and Steve Slaton was just flat-out bad when given chances to run back kickoffs. Danieal Manning was a very good return man in Chicago and will see some action here, and if tiny Trindon Holiday makes the roster it will be because of his work here. Most teams that go from a 4-3 front to a 3-4 front wind up improving in both coverage and returns simply by adding an extra linebacker to the units. That should happen here as well, particularly if Xavier Adibi stays healthy.
Forecast: This is at least the third summer in a row that the Texans have been the trendy pick to finally make the playoffs and perhaps even make a little noise once they get there. Last year was a colossal disappointment, but things do seem different in 2011. Adding Wade Phillips has brought a new sense of purpose and energy to a heretofore moribund defense, and the offseason moves they made can only help. The offense will be good enough to win a handful even when the defense fails to show up, with a deep stable of running backs and tight ends and a solid O-line. The schedule is not easy, with the NFC South and AFC North on the docket, but this is the most talented team in the AFC South. On paper. I think they will finally get over the hump and finish with a winning record and sneak into a playoff berth. Houston winds up 9-7 and earns a Wild Card in a down year for the AFC. |
