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| Jeff Risdon. 6th September, 2011 - 10:40 am
 2010 Record: 10-6
Point Differential: +62
Turnover Margin: +9
Sack Differential: -10
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 5th
Passing: 9th
3rd Down: 14th
Scoring:3rd
QB: My how things have changed in the last 18 months. Donovan McNabb is a distant memory, and erstwhile QB of the future Kevin Kolb has been dealt to Arizona. After Michael Vick stepped in for an injured Kolb early last year and put on an MVP-caliber display, Philly is now the Michael Vick show. Committing $100M over the next few years guarantees that, and the Eagles are banking on the 2010 Vick being the player they get for the future.
That is a huge gamble. Last year was the first season where Vick completed more than 56% of his passes or accounted for more touchdowns than turnovers. He is one of the most sacked QBs in NFL history (sacks per attempt) and has missed four starts or more in half of his right NFL seasons as a starter. But he was masterful in 2010, quickly picking up on the bastardized version of the West Coast offense. Vick showed more care with the football and better accuracy, notably on shorter throws. His preparation was clearly improved, and Vick played like a man in search of both personal redemption and a big new contract.
Now he has both, and that must not dissuade him from continuing to progress even though he is 31 and the reigning NFL Comeback Player of the Year. He still has great agility and is an exceptional runner, but his success last year was all about his improvement at throwing the football. Vick has a very live arm, but 2010 was the first season where he consistently harnessed that and turned it into as viable a weapon as his running presents.
I do not expect a repeat of last year from Vick. He will throw more interceptions and will misfire more often. A slight regression is inevitable, but how far he slides back will go a long way towards determining the fate of the Eagles. If Vick gets hurt or turns into the inaccurate turnover machine he was at times in Atlanta, Vince Young takes over as the primary backup. That should scare the hell out of Eagles fans. Sycophants -- and Young has an inordinate amount of them -- point out his sterling won/loss record and his fairly impressive stats in his brief tenure as the Titans starter last year.
Here is all you need to know about how Vince Young will handle the pressure in Philly: when the Titans coaches asked him to take on more responsibility and leadership, Young responded by failing to show up for anything and bizarrely threatening suicide. When his coaches (not just Jeff Fisher) challenged him to do more, he angrily balked and quit on his teammates. He might be one of the more physically gifted QBs in football, but Vince Young is an absolute disaster above the shoulders.
Mike Kafka has shown glimpses of being a solid NFL quarterback, enough that he has pushed Young for the #2 job and allowed the Eagles to feel comfortable enough to trade Kolb. Kafka is small and does not have a big arm, but he is very accurate and mobile, and he has a strong command of the offense.
RB: LeSean McCoy has all the trappings of a feature back. "Shady" is lithe, quick, and strong, and he can take a hit. He attacks the hole and has the feet to made sudden cuts once a defender blocks his path. McCoy put up 5.2 yards per carry last year, but more impressively averaged 5.9 yards per carry on first down. That sets the table for Andy Reid to open the playbook and not worry about a long conversion on third down.
McCoy is also very good on screens, though he can be a little too quick to go down for the cut block in pass protect mode. With his shiftiness and long speed, McCoy is a real threat to break any run into a very long run. My biggest critique is that he tries to string out every run, often turning what could be a two-yard gain into a short loss. That is a fairly common trait of younger speed backs.
Some of the Eagles freakish offseason spending spree brought in Ronnie Brown from the Dolphins. Mr. Wildcat has an incredible amount of mileage on his tires, but he should make an excellent fit for the offense. Brown is a very adept receiver, which is important here because the Eagles run the ball less than just about anyone and McCoy will get the vast majority of carries. Brown makes for an expensive but very capable insurance policy.
Rookie Dion Lewis made the team thanks to his dynamic inside-out style, but he must protect the football or else his Philly tenure will be brief. Lewis is compactly built with huge thighs in the MJD mold, though he lacks the top-end gear. Owen Schmitt plays the role of lead blocking sledgehammer, though he too is a decent receiver that is not fun for safeties in the open field.
WR/TE: The Eagles have quite the dynamic starting duo in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, who constitute perhaps the fastest set of starters in the league. Jackson led the league in yards per catch a year ago at 22.0, and his frequent appearances on highlight reels have made him one of the most feared weapons in the game. Jackson likes to run deeper routes but is just as effective at taking a simple 8-yard slant and breaking it off into a 77-yard touchdown romp. He has exceptional fight for the ball despite being small and slight. Alas, Jackson is truculent and unpredictable in mood, and he is steaming mad about not being rewarded with a fat new contract while the Eagles opened the checkbook for so many outsiders. He angrily held out and has effectively built a wall between himself and his teammates, which is not a new development to anyone that knew Jackson while at Cal. Still, his talent is valuable enough that the Eagles must cater to him ... and he knows it.
I have used this line before regarding Maclin, but I still find it amazing: Jeremy Maclin once won the Big 12 100 meter dash title, yet he is the slowest of the skill position players in Philly. That speaks to the speed here. Maclin developed into a more complete receiver in his second season. His footwork and burst coming out of breaks both improved, as did his concentration at looking the ball into his hands every time. He has good size and was very effective in the red zone. But as with Jackson, there are serious questions regarding Maclin, though much less insidious. Maclin missed almost the entire preseason with a mysterious ailment that caused him to lose considerable weight and muscle mass. Anytime a player has to issue a press release denying he has lymphoma, you know the sickness is serious. Both Maclin and the Eagles insist he will be ready to go come September 11, but I doubt he is anywhere close to 100% for a while, if at all in 2011. That leaves both starters with tremendous potential but legit question marks.
The #3 receiver is Steve Smith, yet he comes with legit questions as well. The former Giant is coming off microfracture surgery in his knee and could begin the season on the PUP list, which means he will miss at least the first six games. Smith was an excellent over-the-middle slot guy in New York, but the Giants would never have let him leave if they thought he could help in 2011. It is better for Eagles fans to plan on very little from Smith and take whatever he provides as a bonus. That leaves the third banana role to second-year Riley Cooper, best known as the hairball that Tim Tebow loved to throw to at Florida. Faster than he looks, Cooper does a decent job getting open but does not attack the ball in the air and can be pushed off his routes. Jason Avant does a capable job in the slot and can make the acrobatic catch, and Vick likes to look for him on third down. His role could expand this year, especially if the health issues of Maclin pervade.
Brent Celek has emerged as a very solid tight end, capable of getting open down the field but primarily making his living in the intermediate middle. He floats in space very well, giving Vick a big target as he scrambles. He is not much of a blocker, but the Eagles seldom ask him to do more than chip down and then get out in the open. Celek has not yet cemented the innate chemistry with Vick that he had with Donovan McNabb, but he remains an above-average tight end. An offseason of working together should help Vick avoid some of the ugly misfires he sent his way a year ago. Clay Harbor is a younger, slightly smaller version of Celek that has progressed nicely through his rookie season and camp this summer. Both tight ends have the ability to play in the slot, and both are not averse to nailing unsuspecting defenders with downfield blocks.
OL: How this patchwork quilt holds up could very well be the difference between making a Super Bowl run or bombing into last place in the NFC East. The potential is there for this line to be very good, but that requires good health and quickly coming together. The former has already been a major issue, as both projected starting tackles have missed time in the preseason. It is serious enough that left guard Todd Herremans is moving to right tackle because free agent signee Ryan Harris has a bad enough back that he cannot touch his calves.
He was signed only because the 2010 right tackle, Winston Justice, is slow to recover from knee surgery last winter. The right tackle spot is more critical here because Vick is left-handed and has never been good at feeling blindside pressure. Herremans might actually be better in pass protection than Justice was, but he was an above-average guard and that leaves a huge hole at an already thin position.
Filling the guard holes will be journeyman Evan Mathis and first round rookie Danny Watkins. Mathis has never been more than the #7 lineman on some lesser rosters, but he takes over for Herremans at a position that the Eagles love to run behind. I am very bullish on Watkins, an over-aged rookie who was the toast of the draftnik circuit, but he remains a rookie without significant college experience or a football background. Neither has impressed in preseason duty, and Vick has already taken some serious shots as a result. Another rookie, Jason Kelce, will start at center because Jamaal Jackson is apparently done and Mike McGlynn is too stiff. I do see promise in Kelce, but he is undersized and lacks power.
Offensive line coach Howard Mudd has faced challenges like this before in Indianapolis, but those Colts teams always had Peyton Manning and his quick release and preternatural pocket awareness behind them. This group is protecting Vick, a QB that gets sacked more frequently than any active player but David Carr ... and tends to fumble when he is sacked.
Left tackle Jason Peters can cure a lot of what ails Philly if he decides he wants it bad enough. Peters is an enigmatic talent, at times dominant but also appearing disinterested and passive at other moments. Peters brought his "A" game most of last year and the offense flourished, with him clearing paths for Vick and McCoy and not needing tight end help even against the swiftest of pass rushers. He must play at a consistent Pro Bowl level, which is very possible. How probable that is remains a mystery. There is absolutely nothing in reserve at tackle, where King Dunlap is a 6-9 immobile behemoth. McGlynn has good feistiness and some experience as the top reserve interior linemen, and if Jackson sticks on the team (not a given) he upgrades the depth potential. Keep an eye on sixth round rookie Julian Vandervelde, a corn-fed Iowa product with an excellent hand punch. He could be starting sooner than later at one of the guard spots. If he and the other youngsters step up quickly, this could be a very good unit for a long time, but that is asking a lot with so much riding on this season.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 15th
Passing: 15th
3rd Down: 21st
Scoring: 21st
DL: This unit is very deep and has abundant versatility. Trent Cole is one of the best edge rushers in the league, getting to the quarterback with reliable regularity thanks to a lightning-fast first step. Cole has a great rip move that he sets up nicely, and he also possesses a great closing burst once the ball is close. He is also a very good run defender, though he will probably do less in that aspect in 2011 as new defensive line coach Jim Washburn likes to start his ends inordinately wide. Jason Babin followed Washburn from Tennessee, where he breathed life into a heretofore underwhelming career with 13 sacks. His 2011 provides an excellent glimpse of what Philly fans can expect from their defensive ends: he registered 13 sacks, 26 QB pressures, 4 tackles for loss, but only a handful of tackles otherwise, while a parade of running backs plowed inside his wide tack and ripped off plentiful gashes of yardage. The company line in Tennessee was, that is okay, we need the sacks and our linebackers were not up to the challenge, both of which are not technically inaccurate but lead me to really worry about how the even less skilled Philly linebacking corps (more on that next) will handle it.
At least Juqua Parker is still around, and he will likely split the role with Babin; Parker is the rare Eagle lineman that is better against the run than at rushing the passer. Darryl Tapp is the other member of the defensive end rotation, and his game is predicated on speed perhaps more than any of the others; he once tracked down speedy Vernon Davis some 30 yards downfield, and he is very sneaky at dropping into coverage and sliding outside to disrupt screens. Both Tapp and Parker are very good at getting their hands on balls at the line when they cannot get to the quarterback.
The inside guys got some serious reinforcement with free agent Cullen Jenkins. The former Packer brings a great deal of agile beef in the middle, provided he can stay healthy. Jenkins is very good at collapsing the pocket from the inside, and his stiff arm shiver to get off a block is a move every high school coach should be teaching. Philly is deep enough that Jenkins most likely will not start, but will be part of a rotation with Mike Patterson, Antonio Dixon, and Trevor Laws. Patterson scared the football world by collapsing with an apparent seizure during August camp, but he is ready for action. They need him to be, as he is the most active run stuffer in the middle. Dixon is coming off a great season where he held the line of scrimmage very well, and he could really blossom with Jenkins helping/pushing him. He does not get to as many plays as Patterson but reliably soaks up two blockers. Laws is a nickel-package interior rusher that slides outside when the team goes to an odd-man front (very infrequently). That he nailed four sacks last year testifies to his skill, considering he played in only about 35% of the snaps and the defense was designed for Cole and Parker to get all the sacks. This is the deepest position on the roster, and almost the entire line is either in its prime or just approaching it.
LB: All those prominent signings, yet the Eagles will trot out what is easily the weakest linebacker corps in the league, a risk that threatens to scuttle all the progress elsewhere. The three starters -- Jamar Chaney on the strong side, Casey Matthews in the middle, and Moises Fokou on the weak side -- would not start on any other team, period. Fokou and Matthews might be hard-pressed to be the top backup on any other team.
There are two ways of looking at this. The Eagles linebackers were pretty lousy last year, and by going bargain-basement the way they have this year, they freed up money to splurge on better talent at other spots. After all, Philly ranked 31st in yards to running backs as receivers and 30th in tackles for loss. It is not like Ernie Sims and Stewart Bradley were irreplaceable, but they were functional starters that garnered some modicum of respect from the opponent. With all the talent at corner and up front, you can bet teams will attack the vulnerable spot, and this group has yet to prove they can do anything about it. Expect a multitude of 12 personnel (1 WR, 2 TE, 2 RB) and loads of screens, draws, and misdirection plays that will force Matthews et al to make plays.
Chaney is actually a decent prospect, athletically limited and short but full of football smarts and toughness. He played in the middle last year and was not lost as a seventh-round rookie. Now he moves to the strong side, where he will be the linebacker that takes on the tight end and/or fullback, duty he can handle. Because of how wide the ends will play, Chaney and Fokou (the WLB) will line up more inside than most backers typically do. Fokou was a rookie last year as well, and it showed. He really struggled to avoid blocks and to diagnose what was happening around him fast enough. Experience will help, but only so much. In games where the opponent tried to run wide, Fokou did show he could flow outside and make the tackle. Matthews is an undersized, under-athletic rookie that would not even sniff the NFL if his brother wasn't an All Pro in Green Bay or his father one of the most versatile, durable linebackers of the 1980s (and a personal childhood hero of mine). He has all the intangibles you could ever want in a linebacker, but the physical ability just is not up to snuff.
Most teams like to keep a veteran mentor around with so many youngsters in the lineup, but the Eagles shunned that conventional wisdom as well. Akeem Jordan has four mediocre seasons under his belt as an undersized OLB that misses too many tackles. He is the bedrock presence here. Second-year Keenan Clayton and rookie Brian Rolle -- who is smaller than both starting safeties -- are the only other backers on the roster.
Secondary: Much has been made of the Eagles and their cornerback situation. Dominique Rodgers Cromartie came from Arizona as the booty for Kevin Kolb, while the Eagles went out and signed the most prominent free agent this summer, Nnamdi Asomugha. With holdover Asante Samuel, that gives the Eagles three legit #1 corners, an embarrassment of riches.
Asomugha is the cream of the bumper crop, arguably the best corner in the NFL today. He has thrived in press man coverage in Oakland, and his size and quick feet make it very difficult for receivers to get around. Teams have seldom thrown his way, and he is also very solid in run support. Cutting off one third of the field is an invaluable ability that Asomugha brings, and it plays into the hands of the other two corners, both of whom are more ballhawkish in nature.
DRC will be the starter on the opposite side, and the Eagles are desperately hoping the fully motivated DRC of 2009 shows up and not the 2010 version that was great at times but also had some truly awful games. He has the speed and body control to be a very good man cover corner, and his instincts are good enough that he can sit in a zone comfortably. Teams have found success in bombarding him with multiple receivers to his side and making him choose. Run support is not his forte, and most of his tackles are of the "pushed him out of bounds" variety, a disappointment considering his size and ability he shows in hitting the receiver when the ball arrives.
Asante Samuel is the nickel back, though he will probably play outside with Asomugha sliding into the slot. Samuel is legendary for his playmaking on the ball; his 7 INTs and numerous breakups make him a very real threat to force turnovers and quickly flip the momentum. He is coming off arguably his best season in coverage, finding a comfort zone roaming the intermediate range. Nobody reads the eyes of the quarterback better. But with all the big plays come a couple of real issues. Calling him "soft" in run support is an understatement. No corner since Deion Sanders half-heartedly dives at feet to make the tackle like Samuel. He also likes to think he can intercept any pass thrown anywhere near him, which leads him to gamble on jumping routes and can expose the safety behind him. Last year he did better at this, but he will bite occasionally on double moves. With Asomugha on the other side, teams are going to scheme against him and Samuel must be responsible and prepared.
Alas, the rest of the secondary after the top three corners is pieced together on whims and prayers. The prayer most likely to be answered is Nate Allen, who will start at strong safety again after a torn PCL and patellar tendon ended his rookie campaign in December. Allen played free safety last year and embraced the literal meaning of the word; his role was to limit yards after the catch and never let anyone get behind him, and he did both well. The numbers do not look great, but he was a safety in the literal definition and has decent skills. He has enough hitting prowess to handle the strong spot. Allen is not quite ready yet, however, and thus the spot apparently belongs to Jarrad Page, who is on his third team in as many seasons for a reason.
Page does okay in basic zone coverage but tends to be slow to diagnose and is often seen running into the picture a step too late. He is also prone to el matador tackles of the type that make fans so infuriated with Samuel. Rookie Jaiquawn Jarrett and plucky former Buckeye Kurt Coleman will split the free safety spot. I like the football mind of Jarrett and his confidence in what he can do. Coleman is a bigger hitter but lacks range for the position.
Skinny Trevard Lindley is the #4 corner, though he will see very little action. He was competent as a fourth-round rookie, though he is a mature 25-year-old entering his sophomore year. Rookie Curtis Marsh has great size and intriguing potential, though three years ago he was playing running back at a non-BCS school. The Eagles feel good enough about both of them that they cut Joselio Hanson, and I agree with them.
Special Teams: Welcome to the NFL, rookie, now go win us a Super Bowl! Philly has elected to use rookies at both specialist spots, with Alex Henery handling the kicking and Chas Henry the new punter. Henery has a chance to be a great kicker with excellent range. He is the NCAA all-time leader in field goal accuracy and led the Big 12 in touchbacks. With the kickoff rule change, the Eagles might not face more than one kickoff return per game, a nice bonus.
Henery is also an excellent punter, but the Eagles opted to use Florida product Henry, the reigning Ray Guy Award winner. Both specialists were at the Senior Bowl last winter, and both had real issues with the wind, something to consider in Philly or New York in November and beyond. I admire the chutzpah to go cheap and young, but David Akers was one of the best clutch kickers in the game. Everyone will be on pins and needles the first time they need Henery to win a game.
DeSean Jackson is a dynamic return man, but the Eagles are worried about his frail build and will use Dion Lewis as the primary return man instead. Given his issues holding onto the football, they might want to consider giving Curtis Marsh or Riley Cooper a shot.
Forecast: This is a fascinating team that has been the talk of the offseason. No question Philadelphia won the summer. The question is if they can win the fall and winter. Their experiment of having no middle class to speak of has never really worked in the NFL, but then again no team has had the upper class talent the Eagles have.
Still, I am pessimistic on the Eagles for a few reasons. I do not trust Michael Vick to come anywhere close to his 2010 performance either in lack of negative plays or durability. Both wideouts have legit questions. The linebacking corps could be the weakest positional unit on any team at any position group, and the offensive line is near the bottom of the league as well. Managing all those prominent egos can be a real challenge as well.
To run with Vince Young and his "Dream Team" proclamation, look at the Miami Heat of last year. Like Philly, the Heat brought in legit stars to fill 40% of their starting roster and tried to festoon a winner riding the stars and a bunch of has-beens and never-will-be players. It took time for the big-ticket talent to learn to play together, and that Dream Team started 9-7 while they worked out the chemistry kinks with the giant targets on their backs. Given the abbreviated NFL offseason and how much noise the Eagles have made, I expect much the same result.
The problem for the Eagles is that the NFL season is just 16 games, not 82. Give this team 24 games and I have little doubt they would finish with one of the best records, but the brevity of the NFL season allows precious little margin for error. Philadelphia will finish 9-7 and that might not be good enough to make the playoffs, a colossal disappointment that will lead to major upheaval.
--Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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