 |
| NFL Columns |
|
| Search |
|
|
|
|
| Draft Sim ID |
|
| Jeff Risdon. 2nd September, 2011 - 12:49 pm
 2010 Record: 12-4
Point Differential: +87
Turnover Margin: +7
Sack Differential: -13
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 14th
Passing: 20th
3rd Down: 16th
Scoring: 16th
QB: Joe Flacco is a conundrum of a quarterback. He is often poised, efficient, and accurate all over the field. Flacco might have the best natural throwing arm in the game today, capable of rifling a fastball 60 yards to a dime target. He comes off a season where he finished 7th in QB rating and set personal bests in all sorts of categories, and he once again took the Ravens to the playoffs, where once again they won a game. Flacco is just entering his prime years and has been durable, starting every game of his 3-year NFL career.
But there is something about Flacco that just gnaws at a lot of people. Chief among those criticisms is his largely terrible play in games that really matter, namely against the Steelers. His QB rating in the playoffs is 61.6, or about what Jimmy Clausen did with the hapless Panthers last year. Flacco has a terrible tendency to freeze up under pressure, holding the ball too long and staring straight at his intended target from the second he breaks the huddle. He takes far too many sacks that are charitably referred to as coverage sacks, and too many of those also result in fumbles.
The big question is whether Flacco can finally make the next leap forward and play better in big games. There are subtle signs that the team is losing confidence; they fired QB Coach Jim Zorn against the loud objections of Flacco and drafted Tyrod Taylor as a developmental prospect/potential replacement. Flacco has yet to get a contract extension, a rare thing for a young franchise QB, and he has not been shy about feeling slighted. His future with Baltimore largely depends on how well he plays in pressure situations and big games. I will be honest; I think Ozzie Newsome is wise to hold off and make Flacco prove he is deserving, because thus far I am not convinced Flacco will ever be able to rise to the moment.
The aforementioned Taylor has pleasantly surprised team observers in camp and preseason, quickly moving up to #2 on the depth chart. He is forever compared to fellow Virginia Tech QB Michael Vick, but Taylor is more of a pocket passer and a more careful caretaker of the football. He needs work as a passer but offers very good long-term potential. Hunter Cantwell is praying the team decides to keep three QBs, which is not a given.
RB: Ray Rice rushed for 1220 yards and caught 63 balls for nearly 700 more yards in 2010. He is invaluable for all he brings to the offense, and Rice will likely get even more carries this year. Rice has tremendous balance and runs with excellent pad level through the hole. He thrives at following his lead blocker and breaking the run outside, though he lacked the explosion in 2010 that he had shown before. He battled with a knee injury, and perhaps the wear and tear is starting to show. Rice remains an excellent fantasy running back, and should top his relatively meager five touchdowns of a year ago. He is not the kind of back that can avoid defenders that get into the backfield quickly, as Rice runs with patience and needs a couple of clean steps to get moving. One thing Rice does exceptionally well is executing the fake on play action passes, and he gets a lot of opportunity to do so as it plays to the strengths of Flacco as well.
Ricky Williams replaces Willis McGahee as the bruising complementary back. Consider this a push, though Ricky is a little more apt to break the big run every so often. If Ricky has his head on straight--and that is often a week-to-week variable--he should be good for about 500 yards and 3-5 touchdowns in a reserve role. He is not your traditional short yardage back, though, and that role appears to fall to Jalen Parmele. I am forever grateful to Parmele for spending a good 20 minutes with me after a Toledo practice a few years back, and I shamelessly hope for his success.
The Ravens made a change at fullback, signing Pro Bowler Vonta Leach away from the Texans to replace LeRon McClain. Leach plowed the way for Arian Foster to lead the league in rushing a year ago, and he is a punishing force. Unlike McClain, Leach does not need the occasional carry to keep him happy...which is good, because Leach has not carried the ball in two years and dropped nearly as many passes (6) as he hauled in (8) last year. His presence should help Rice get more clean approaches through the line.
WR/TE: There is a lot of change here, and it is for the better in the long term. But the short term might experience some growing pains, as youngsters will be called upon quite a bit. TJ Houshmandzadeh and Derrick Mason are gone, leaving Anquan Boldin as the lone holdover from one of the oldest wideout corps in the league. They were reliable pass catchers but did not offer much after the catch and struggled at times to get open. Boldin was the keeper, and his nose for the end zone is exceptional. Widely regarded as one of the toughest players in the league, Boldin thrives on intermediate routes and crossing patterns. He is also very good in the red zone, though no player in the league gets away with offensive pass interference more than Boldin. He is physical and a real load to bring down.
The Ravens came to a cold realization during camp that rookies Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss were not ready to carry the rest of the load, so they traded for Lee Evans and instantly upgraded the receiving talent. Evans is a legit field stretcher with great poise and body control. He has never been quite as productive as expected, but Evans ostensibly replaces Mason with more speed and more deep respect from the safeties. Do not expect more than about 50 receptions, but getting his career average of 15.7 yards per reception on those catches would make Evans well worth it.
Smith and Doss appear to have been drafted in the wrong order, as this draftnik stated back in April. Smith is a straight-line speedster from Maryland but has struggled catching on to the intricacies of route running and adjusting to balls that are not perfectly thrown. He was the second rounder based largely on long-term potential, and I do like that potential, but expecting more than about 15 receptions in 2011 is overly optimistic. Fourth rounder Doss is more NFL-ready, and a more physical type of player that fits with the Ravens mentality. However, he is not a slot receiver and that is where the Ravens need help. Second year player David Reed is also in the mix, though he did nothing other than return kicks as a rookie. He has been up and down in camp, recovering from wrist surgery that makes squeezing the ball a little difficult. Of the three young bucks, Reed is the most likely to make a difference for the Ravens this year. But by and large, look for Boldin and Evans to get the vast majority of looks amongst the wideouts. Perennial prospect Marcus Smith has had a nice camp and could finally be ready to make some noise, but that is to be believed when seen.
Tight end also features a changing of the guard, as venerable Todd Heap is gone. Ed Dickson rises up to starter after a rookie season where he showed seam-stretching speed and good creativity after the catch. Dickson has great size and good hands, but what sets him apart is his speed. Fellow sophomore Dennis Pitta will man the #2 role and fits the stereotype of a second tight end: not so fast, very reliable hands, better blocker. Pitta had but one catch--for one yard--last year, so his production is a real question, but he is not without functional skills. Davon Drew is a big-handed blocker as the #3 tight end, and he will be hard-pressed to match the 2010 output of Pitta; special teams are his ticket.
OL: Achilles heel alert! This unit is a work in progress that threatens to scuttle whatever offensive progress the skill position players might make. The tackle situation is so dire that the Ravens imported Bryant McKinnie after the second preseason game, the same McKinnie that the OL-poor Vikings let go because he weighed close to 70 pounds more than he did last December. He will immediately start at left tackle here, no matter how overweight or plodding he might be, and he has struggled the last couple of seasons with speed off the edge when he was in good shape.
Signing McKinnie was made necessary for a couple of reasons. The plan was to move Michael Oher to the left and install ONeill Cousins as the right tackle. But Cousins was brutally inept and ultimately released, and the team is not sure raw rookie Jah Reid is ready to be a starter on a playoff team. For his part, Oher has been much better on the right side than the left, where he struggles in pass protection and plays more passively. The plan now appears to be putting McKinnie at left tackle once he is ready for action, move Oher back to the right side, and let Reid serve as the top backup while he gets his feet wet. Reid has intriguing potential and has looked pretty solid in preseason, so his accelerated development could throw in an interesting wrinkle: what if he is better than Oher on the right side, and McKinnie proves incapable? Oher is a player that has struggled at times with his confidence, which makes that scenario a potential disaster beyond what would happen to the backside protection of Flacco.
Baltimore is tithing every known deity in hopes that none of the three inside starters gets hurt. Ben Grubbs, Matt Birk, and Marshall Yanda are a very good G-C-G group, with Yanda being an emerging stud at right guard. Birk is showing signs of decline but is still an adequate pivot that still has a tasty mix of brains and surliness. Grubbs is a solid all-around left guard that mixes it up well alongside Birk. The depth inside is, well, scary if you are a Ravens fan. Converted DT Bryan Mattison is the top backup at guard. Most people believed he was only on the team because his dad was the defensive coordinator, and now that safety net is gone as father Tim went back to college at Michigan. Undrafted rookie Tim Barnes is the backup center. Ramon Harewood is the only other tackle on the roster. He is a 2010 6th rounder that was considered a very raw project, and he missed last year with two knee surgeries. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the weakest reserve OL in the NFL by a big margin, and there are some pretty lousy reserve O-lines out there. Expect at least one veteran castoff to stick with this group.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 5th
Passing: 21st
3rd Down: 12th
Scoring: 3rd
DL: Haloti Ngata is an elite lineman hitting the prime of his career. He is arguably the biggest (no pun intended) difference making D-lineman in the league today. It is rare for a man of his size to put up big-time pass rushing numbers, but Ngata bagged 5.5 sacks and also registered 19 QB pressures despite near-constant double teams. Ngata is also an elite run stuffer with an exceptional ability to disengage from the block and splash onto the ball carrier right at the line of scrimmage. One of my favorite moments of 2010 was Jets RB Shonn Greene thinking he had a big lane to run through, only to get blindsided by Ngata, who was dragging Jets center Nick Mangold (a great one) with him. Greene got up and looked at Ngata the way a dog does the first time it runs into an electric fence. He gets that a lot.
Ngata is surrounded by talent up front, but that talent is largely unproven. Man Mountain Terrance Cody will succeed Kelly Gregg in the starting lineup at the nose. Cody has legendary battles with his bulge, but showed he belonged in the NFL as a rookie and has a bright future if he can avoid eating himself out of the league. His primary function is to keep blockers off of Ray Lewis, and with his girth and power he should be able to handle that role. Likewise, the other starting spot is temporarily in the hands of veteran Cory Redding. The former Lion has some ability to get to the QB and can still make the big stuff every now and then, but he is simply keeping the seat warm for second-year player Arthur Jones. Jones has very high potential but has also spent a great deal of time in the training room, including his entire rookie season. Brandon McKinney provides beefy depth, while rookie Pernell McPhee is nearly 30 pounds lighter than any other lineman and is more of a developmental gap shooter.
LB: At some point the Ravens are going to take the field without Ray Lewis manning the middle, and the NFL will be a less colorful place. Lewis remains the leader nonpareil, a towering locker room presence that gets everyone on the defense to breathe together and buy into the Ravens way. I pity the fool that dares cross Lewis, either on the field or questioning his decision-making. He is an inspirational force that will walk into Canton five years after he finally retires.
Lewis can also still play at a pretty high level, though the Ravens do a lot to make him continue to look great. Ignore the tackle numbers you find on the stat sheet; for years the guardians of the record keeping have given Lewis credit for tackles if he was anywhere near the play. Lewis still bags about 100 legit tackles a year, many of them still of the bone-rattling variety. His instincts remain exceptional, and he seldom misses a cover call. But he is now 36 with loads of accrued contact on his body, and it does show some later in games. He also continues to make his plays further from the line of scrimmage, a declining trend that highlights his gradually slowing burst. That highlights the biggest problem for the Ravens: finding someone to play inside with him to take some of the burden off.
Last year Jameel McClain seized that job but did little with it. McClain does a decent job covering tight ends, but he is not a north/south attacking style of run defender. He was better than both Tavares Gooden and Dannell Ellerbe, two in a long string of ILB draftees that has not panned out. Ellerbe is a functional nickel backer that does have good timing on the blitz, and he could spell Lewis more often if he continues to attack more. Gooden is the dreaded better athlete than football player whose development appears to have stalled out.
Terrell Suggs has mastered the rush backer position in this hybrid defense. T-Sizzle bagged 11 sacks and notched a very impressive 38 QB hurries, indicative of a disruptive force off the edge. What people ignore about Suggs is how well he attacks the run; while he does not put up huge numbers, Suggs makes a great deal of stuffs in the backfield, swooping in as backs realize they cannot run inside. He is also the master of the forced fumble with the blindside sack.
Finding a complementary rusher to Suggs has been similarly ineffective to finding inside help for Lewis. Jarrett Johnson is a solid all-around backer but not much of a pass rusher, getting just 1.5 sacks a year ago and spending most of his time dropping in coverage. He is durable and dependable and the type of backer that does a lot of dirty work that never shows up on the stat sheet. Alas, the Ravens desperately need more pass rushing juice from his position. Paul Kruger has been a big disappointment in that capacity, registering one sack in his first two seasons. He is simply unable to avoid blocks or shed them, and he equally struggles against the run. Kruger was a 2009 2nd round pick, and the Ravens used their 2nd round pick in 2010 on Sergio Kindle to try and help. Kindle broke his skull falling down some steps and missed his rookie season, and I have a real hard time believing someone can play linebacker in the NFL after fracturing his skull. He has yet to pass journeyman-in-training Prescott Burgess on the depth chart, and Burgess sticks around almost exclusively for special teams. Unless Kruger unexpectedly breaks out, new Defensive Coordinator Chuck Pagano will have his work cut out devising blitz schemes and exotic pressure packages to get to the QB. It is worth noting that Pagano has never been a coordinator at the NFL level before, so he will either be revolutionary or disappointing. Expect him to bring more pressure to try and improve on the anemic 3rd down sack numbers (11, tied for 30th in the league).
Secondary: Ed Reed will make the Hall of Fame someday, and his 2010 season is a prime example of why. After missing the first six games, Reed still led the league in interceptions and was arguably the most impactful defensive player in the league. His range is about a half-step less than it used to be, but no safety strikes more fear into quarterbacks when they drop back to pass. There is concern about his troublesome neck, but it appears Reed is confident and comfortable enough in protecting himself that he can still play at a very high level.
The other starting safety will be Tom Zbikowksi, who plays the position much the way you would expect of an erstwhile pro boxer. He loves to hit and is not afraid to attack anyone with the ball regardless of size. He replaces Dawan Landry, who was a better tackler despite not being as good a hitter. Neither was much of an asset in coverage, which leaves lots of ground for Reed to cover on the back end. Veteran Bernard Pollard will push him for reps, hoping to salvage his career after being an unmitigated disaster in Houston a year ago. Pollard is essentially a small linebacker more than he is a safety, and he has a bullseye on his jersey when forced to cover. His best asset is his leadership, though the Ravens do not exactly need much of that on defense. The top backup for Reed is Haruki Nakamura, the pride of Elyria, Ohio and the Japanese-American community. He is smallish but fearless and has a good nose for the ball.
Cornerback play was very uneven a year ago, and the most reliable corner from last season, Josh Wilson, is gone. Chris Carr returns on one side after a 2010 where his play improved as the year bore on. Blessed with great speed, Carr is better at running deep with receivers. He has his battles with shiftiness and giving up too much inside room. He will start opposite Domonique Foxworth, who missed all of 2010 after blowing out his knee on the first day of training camp. The Ravens are optimistic Foxworth can return to his 2009 form, where he morphed from a journeyman to a very effective cover man with some playmaking ability. Ladarius Webb saw a lot of action last year and was very up and down. Surprisingly he was really strong against the run, but had issues allowing receivers to get wide open behind him. That is not what you would expect from a guy known for his speed as a return specialist. The same is true of Carr, though some of that might be because teams tend to try and bounce so many runs outside with Ngata and the big beef in the middle not giving any room. 1st round pick Jimmy Smith is probably the most natural cover man on the roster; he was my top corner in the draft. Alas, he fell for some personal baggage that included failed drug tests (plural) and general nonchalance about some police blotter activity. Smith is the type of corner that believes he can intercept every pass, which produces a lot of big plays...for both teams.
Special Teams: The specialists here are excellent. Billy Cundiff was outstanding as the kicker last year, leading the league in touchbacks on kickoffs and nailing 90% of his field goal attempts. Sam Koch is one of the best directional punters in the league, and his coffin corner skills were downright lethal a year ago. 39 of his 81 punts wound up inside the 20 yard line, and he forced a high percentage of fair catches.
David Reed was a revelation as the kick returner during his rookie season, leading the league at almost 30 yards per return. Ladarius Webb is a solid punt return man. There is a question at long snapper, where Morgan Cox is coming off a torn ACL, but he should be fine. One target area of improvement is kick coverage, where the Ravens struggled when Cundiff failed to record a touchback; Baltimore was dead last in yards per return allowed.
Forecast: The Ravens have been successful to a point for many years now, having won at least one playoff game in each of the last three seasons. But this is a team that is built for a greater destiny, and another divisional round loss will be considered a failure. For the Ravens to take the next step, Joe Flacco must improve his performance when the spotlight shines brightest; the offensive line must stay healthy and powerful; some of the young defenders must raise their play; Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs must remain dominant forces every week. Those are pretty tall orders, but the potential is certainly here to pull it off. Another 12-win season is probably asking too much, particularly with the questions on the OL. But the Ravens are easily one of the six best teams in the AFC and will accrue enough wins to make the playoffs. Baltimore finishes 10-6 and gets into the dance, but unless a new Joe Flacco emerges, they will not be dancing for long. |
