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| Jeff Risdon. 31st August, 2011 - 11:15 pm
 2010 Record: 11-5
Point Differential: +48
Turnover Margin: +4
Sack Differential: -22
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 22nd
Passing: 28th
3rd Down: 27th
Scoring: 21st
QB: Jay Cutler is the franchise quarterback Bears fans have been clamoring for since, well, I am 38 and I can never remember a time when Bears fans were happy with their QB situation other than one year with Jim McMahon. And Bears fans are now largely dismayed at having a franchise quarterback that refuses to act like how they dreamt. Aside from the NFC Championship game controversy, Cutler is just not the embraceable, charismatic presence that Bears fans believe should represent their franchise.
That is not to say Jay Cutler is not a franchise quarterback; he is merely one with more faults than Bears fans would like to admit or believe. Cutler has an amazing arm and throws with an almost effortless motion. His accuracy is excellent when he gets time to set his feet and step into his throw, and his downfield throws have a perfect blend of velocity and touch on them. That makes him ideal for the kinetic attacking offense of Mike Martz. Cutler has decent agility despite what the sack numbers say. He is capable of greatness, often stringing together several highly impressive drives.
Yet there is something wrong here. Cutler defies the conventional wisdom about quarterback progress; he is actually getting worse the more years he plays. His completion percentage has declined three years in a row, despite playing in perhaps the most passer-friendly QB system one can devise. He continues to throw far too many interceptions, and now he has added the dreaded fumblitis disease, having coughed up 19 fumbles the last two years. Instead of embracing the throne of leadership, Cutler remains aloof and disconnected with his teammates, few of whom rushed to his defense after the knee issue. He has never changed his propensity to throw with poor footwork or forcing the ball in the red zone, where he is one of the least efficient QBs in NFL history. I have been around Mike Martz enough to know he is always teaching and advising his quarterbacks, but Cutler seems impervious, or worse, incapable of learning how to be a better all-around quarterback. Perhaps he is shell-shocked from playing behind a largely terrible O-line, or frustrated by the lackluster Chicago receivers that struggle to read coverages and get in synch with what Cutler sees. Maybe he is tired of all the backstabbing from the Chicago media and the subtle public jabs from teammates. Or just maybe he is really not that great.
Whatever it is, Cutler is the quarterback going forward. Expect another season where he has some excellent games of 360 yards and 3 TDs interspersed amongst some 17-for-33 for 188 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT games that litter his career game log. Chicago has innocuous Caleb Hanie as the only other QB on the active roster. He showed some promise mopping up for the wretched Todd Collins in the NFC Championship game, but has a nasty tendency to stare down exactly where he is going to throw the ball from the second he gets the snap. Martz special draft pick Nathan Enderle will stick as the #3 and is much like Hanie, a big-armed gunslinger that is too deliberate and slow to process the defense. If he catches on quickly Enderle could develop into a starting-caliber Chad Henne type.
RB: In Matt Forte the Bears have a very solid all-around running back that can do everything asked of him. Forte is not afraid to pound between the tackles, and he has enough shiftiness to exploit a small crease. While not a speedster, Forte has a strong second gear after a couple of strides and he runs at top speed with great balance. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, and his pass protection skills have probably accounted for saving two of the nine lives of Cutler. Forte is not an instant acceleration type of back, however, and he lacks the slipperiness to make the first guy miss; I would venture that no runner gets gang tackled near the line more than Forte.
Marion Barber will take over as the complementary back, and he should be an upgrade over the disappointing Chester Taylor, who has been released. Barber is a punishing between-the-tackles thumper that only runs north/south. There are a lot of miles on his body, so sharing the load is a positive. Barber fell out of favor in Dallas for inexplicably struggling in short yardage situations and not exactly embracing the "shared backfield" concept. Like Forte, Barber is an accomplished receiver and is very good in pass protection. There are enough similarities that they can be interchangeable, which keeps the defense guessing a bit. Kahlil Bell will likely see very little action as the third back, although he did show some promise in a short audition in 2009.
Martz has historically had little use for fullbacks in his offense, but because both Forte and Barber are better with a lead blocker, he has acquiesced and worked in a fullback role. Eddie Williams and Will Taufoou will fight for the thankless role and will only touch the ball on a fumble recovery or special teams.
WR/TE: Chicago continues to attempt to prove to the world that a high-flying passing offense does not need a legit #1 receiver. Some would say that Chicago lacks even a legit #2 receiver, let alone a #1. While I am not that harsh, there is no reliable go-to receiver or any coverage-altering presence anywhere on the roster. The de facto top receiver is Johnny Knox, though he apparently has had a poor offseason and will never be mistaken for a good route runner. Knox has blazing straight-line speed and has a nice change-of-gear move to get separation down the field. To the Bears credit, they almost never ask him to do anything but run deep patterns that play to his strengths. He is one of the better deep threats in the league. He is also one of the weakest blockers, and asking him to run shorter, precise routes is an exercise in failure.
Ex-Cowboy Roy Williams reunites with Martz, with whom he had his best season in Detroit. The Bears are very hopeful that combo can rekindle the magic in Chicago. Williams has great size and huge hands, and he knows his role in the offense as the "drag" receiver. That role essentially encompasses running 8- to 12- yard crosses and in/out option routes, and Williams has the physical skills to thrive in that role. His lapses in concentration are legendary, however, and his overall effort appears to ebb and wane with no real reason. Expect Williams to help in the red zone, where he is a big upgrade over Devin Aromashodu, the tall guy of a year ago. Earl Bennett has a little less size and a little more speed than Williams, and as Bears broadcasters will incessantly remind you, he was a Cutler teammate at Vanderbilt. Bennett is basically a possession receiver with YAC potential, but he has trouble getting open when the field shrinks.
Devin Hester continues to be almost freakishly overused in the offense. He was once an elite return man that the Bears have bafflingly elected to curb in that role in order to throw him a great deal of passes. The problem is that he has still has zero feel for the intricacies of route running and his hands are sloppy. Other than on quick slants and screens, where he can be very good, Hester is a waste being used as a receiver. That has yet to deter Martz or Cutler from forcing several throws per game his way. If they can limit his role to running bubble screens, misdirection runs, and shallow crosses out of the spread, Hester makes for a competent 4th receiver and Hall of Fame-worthy return man. Do not hold your breath, Chicago.
Rookie Dane Sanzebacher should nail down the #5 receiver based on the fact he will remind Martz of Mike Furrey. They are essentially the same guy, a try-hard, sure-handed, quicker-than-fast possession receiver with just enough elusiveness that they can sneak past an unwary defense. He is also an accomplished blocker coming out of Ohio State, which could get him a bigger role.
Chicago has been blessed with excellent tight end depth in recent years, but they chose to part with Greg Olsen, easily the most talented pass catcher of the bunch. Olsen often served as a split end and did a fine job stretching the seam. Now the tight ends look a lot less imposing, but there is still functional talent here. Kellen Davis is a hulking blocker with pretty good hands. He will get a chance to expand upon his role and could see a lot of 3rd and short action. When the Bears go to a 2 TE formation, and they do that more than you would think, former Steeler Matt Spaeth will serve much the same purpose as Davis, a blocking-first guy with great height but not much wiggle or speed. He has had major issues staying healthy, which breathes yet more life into Desmond Clark. It only seems like Clark has been with the Bears since 1989, but he moves like he is that old. He is kept around as much for his leadership as anything he offers on the field. The Bears used him as an H-back a year ago and he caught exactly one pass. He might get a few more looks this year if his body holds up. If the Bears keep four tight ends--and they might--rookie Andre Smith from Virginia Tech is very much in the Kellen Davis mold. Smith seems more likely destined for practice squad duty.
OL: There is no sugar coating here. Chicago has had a consistently inadequate offensive line for several years now. They probably reached bottom in 2010, giving up an astonishing 56 sacks and surrendering a registered QB pressure on an astronomical 73% of all pass plays. Only the 2003 Texans have been worse, and that was an expansion team that basically ruined the fledgling career of David Carr. The league average is 52%, and the next worst team (Pittsburgh) clocked in at 63% and they have a QB that likes to be pressured. It was not just one faulty lineman either; every starter surrendered at least 6 sacks and committed at least 3 holding penalties.
Normally that would lead to wholesale changes, but the Bears appear to only be addressing a couple of spots. First round pick Gabe Carimi will immediately start at right tackle. Though he has a bad tendency to fall to his knees, Carimi is a pugnacious run blocker that is scrappy and long enough to hold up against most outside rushers. At the very least, Carimi will not be a pleasant foe for defenders. His acquisition moves young JMarcus Webb to the left tackle spot, where he was not awful in the playoffs. Webb is a pretty raw giant that has very long, powerful arms. He is definitely a work in progress, but there was tangible progress during the season and he has looked improved during the preseason as well.
Olin Kreutz was once a very good center, but the Bears milked one too many seasons out of him and it really showed. Even so, his acrimonious departure to New Orleans shook up the locker room where he was the most respected offensive leader on the team. He will be replaced by the right guard from last season Roberto Garza. Garza has the distinction of allowing more sacks over the last 3 years than any other guard in the league, and his run blocking was not up to snuff last year either. He has handled the snapping duties pretty well thus far, and thankfully the Bears use the shotgun formation sparingly. He might fare okay at center, where he will face more defenders straight on; he was an embarrassment against 5-technique ends that crashed inside, but now will get help on angle blocks from his guards. Those guards will be Lance Louis and Chris Williams. Louis is a burly drive blocker with pretty good feet, but he has yet to take a regular season snap. Williams flopped as a left tackle, was largely inferior as a right tackle, and finally found a spot at which he did not suck at left guard. Back issues have hampered his ability to bend properly and it has inhibited his leg strength. He can handle the pass protection duties inside just fine, but he is not a strong point-of-attack run force. Frank Omiyale is a false start penalty waiting to happen as the top reserve tackle, although he is probably the best run blocker on the team. Free agent Chris Spencer is trying to revitalize his injury-ravaged career, but his inability to beat out Garza for the center gig shows just how far the former 1st round pick (Seattle in 2005) has fallen. He at least provides some modicum of functional veteran depth. All the other campers would be lucky to sniff any practice squads on other teams. There is legit hope for progress with the young bookend tackles, but there is still a lot of work to be done here.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 2nd
Passing: 20th
3rd Down: 2nd
Scoring: 4th
DL: Coach Lovie Smith is a rigid acolyte of the Monte Kiffin 4-3 base Tampa 2 defensive scheme, which relies heavily on generating pressure from the front four with little blitzing. That means the front four have to be very good at penetrating the O-line and getting to the quarterback. Last year the Bears opened the bank to bring in Julius Peppers, and while he failed to hit double digit sacks, he still made a huge positive impact on the defense. Peppers faced all sorts of double teams and modified blocking schemes and still managed to generate a great deal of pressure. He also played the run more consistently than he ever did in Carolina, where his effort against the run sometimes raised some questions.
His counterpart is Israel Idonije, my choice for the most improved player after the 2008 season. Idonije kept up with his progress the last two years, matching Peppers with 8 sacks and consistently blowing up the edge against the run. He is the kind of player fans should really embrace, a hard working plugger that made himself better through relentless practice and mastery of technique. Idonije is a testament to the teaching ability of DL Coach Rod Marinelli. Alas, not even Marinelli could salvage the bust that is Vernon Gholston, who flopped in his chance to show he belonged in the NFL during his short-lived audition with the Bears. That leaves them pretty thin after the starters, with Corey Wootton and his six career games representing almost all the NFL experience in reserve. This is a team that will almost certainly bring in a veteran DE cut from another squad after roster cutdowns, perhaps former Bears starter Alex Brown.
The depth is better inside, but the starters are not as high-end. Henry Melton and Anthony Adams both fall into the "average starter" category, though they are made more effective in Chicago by being very good schematic fits. Adams is crafty with his bulk, doing a good job attacking the gap and disrupting rushing lanes. Melton is a better pocket collapse guy, with decent lateral quickness. Melton got 3 sacks and Adams two sacks last year, all of which were direct results of Peppers. Matt Toeaina has always impressed me with his hustle and nose for the ball. He splits the reps pretty evenly with Melton and is a solid rotation guy. Tommie Harris is mercifully gone, replaced by Combine weightlifting freak Stephen Paea from Oregon State. The Bears swing and missed a couple years ago with a DL specimen with the most impressive offseason public display of athleticism with Jarron Gilbert. Paea is a different animal with a better motor, but consider that despite his awe-inspiring bench press display, most RBs in the draft have better squat numbers, and lower-body drive is critical for DL success. Former Texan Amobi Okoye will get as many reps as he can earn, and he is still young enough to mature into a very good player. He is a Marinelli special project, and I expect to see a lot more of Okoye in 2012 than this year. Lowered expectations can do wonders for him. Marcus Harrison battles his bulge as much as he does offenses, but he has some legit NFL ability as well.
LB: Lance Briggs on the weak side, Brian Urlacher in the middle. That has been the story in Chicago for several years now, and both still play at a very high level for the most part. Urlacher gets more national attention, but for my money Briggs is the more valuable contributor with his great range and the way he attacks the short passing game. Briggs did have a down year in 2010, and a little worry creeps in that his decline could be coming more quickly than expected. Still, he is perfect for the scheme and makes enough plays to merit Pro Bowl consideration if he stays healthy.
These days Urlacher reminds me of pro wrestler Ric Flair towards the end of his awesome career; he is great when things go as expected and makes some "WOO!" plays, but any deviation from what he anticipates and he looks very stiff and clueless. #54 can still annihilate the ball carrier in between the tackles, and he still drops well in coverage. The timing on the blitzes is still great, though he gets less opportunity to do that these days. But his lateral range has precipitously declined, and Urlacher has never been real good at avoiding lead blockers. Urlacher has feuded a bit with Cutler and can be surly when asked about his own faults, and he is 33 going on 50. He still functions capably in the middle, but he is past the top of the hill and plays of a style that does not lend itself to excessive longevity. The Bears desperately need a repeat of his strong 2010.
Chicago has burned through several generally generic Sam backers, which is a somewhat thankless role in this defense. Pisa Tinoisamoa exits, replaced by Nick Roach, who has looked fully capable in limited duty the past few years. Roach runs well and has a good football IQ, though he does get overpowered at times. He is not talented enough to compensate for a dropoff from Urlacher or Briggs, but is a capable starter. The Bears have very little in reserve, a scary prospect considering the age of Urlacher and Briggs. Brian Iwuh is a better special teamer than backer, while undrafted rookie Dom DeCicco (middle) and 6th round pick JT Thomas (weak side) represent the rest of the depth. Injuries here would be catastrophic.
Secondary: Charles Tillman is the prototypical Tampa 2 corner, and he has mastered what is asked of him in the Lovie Smith defense. He is big, jams the line well, steers the receiver to his help, and consistently makes the tackle right after the catch. Tillman has never been either quick or fast, however, and when teams throw bunch formations or run slot motion to his side he can really struggle to keep up. He also does not make a lot of plays on the ball for as much as teams throw his way, despite what the 5 INTs might indicate. On the other side, Tim Jennings lacks the size of Tillman but has good reactionary quickness. Much like Tillman, he surrenders a lot of completions but quickly cleans up the tackle, which is by design. He does tend to need more deep help than most pure zone corners, which has been problematic both here and during his Indy tenure. Zackary Bowman and D.J. Moore fill the nickel and dime roles somewhat interchangeably. Bowman is the better talent but has major trouble staying on the field. Moore is the best ballhawk of the secondary but that comes as a result of him gambling on routes, and his tackling is subpar. Corey Graham has made more of an impact as a return man and special teams stud than in the secondary, though he understands his assignments well when pressed into duty. I do like the potential of a couple of deeper roster guys in UDFA Ryan Jones and second-year man Joshua Moore. One of those two will likely not make the team, but I think both can play in the NFL.
The Bears lost their free safety in Danieal Manning, who was underappreciated by the Windy City faithful for what he did. He manned the shorter field in the zone very adeptly and made aggressive plays on the ball, both in the air and in the run game. Major Wright will take over, but he is neither as lithe in coverage nor as sound of a tackler. Bears fans, insert snide snicker here. Savvy Chris Harris made a mostly triumphant return to Chicago after they inexplicably let him go to Carolina, though he ran past more tackles than he should. He appears to have lost a little range and any more slippage would be highly detrimental to his Kenny Lofton-esque approach to free safety coverage. Rookie Chris Conte has impressed in the preseason and could take on a more prominent role if he continues to make plays.
Special Teams: No team will suffer more from the rule change moving the kickoff to the 35 yard line than the Chicago Bears. Aside from negating the return prowess of Hester and/or Knox on kickoffs, their coverage units have consistently ranked near the top. At least they still get Hester to return punts, where he remains arguably the greatest ever. He took three to the house a year ago and has scared many an opposing special teams coach to just punt the ball short and out of bounds. Their ability to consistently flip the field in their favor has been a major asset, and the defense tends to play better after a great special teams effort. Chicago had both the best average starting field position and held opponents to the 2nd worst average starting field position, which made for many short drives that helped keep the offense competitive.
The specialists were actually pretty ordinary last year. New punter Adam Podlesh is coming off a strong season in Jacksonville, and he has a more reliably bigger leg than the departed Brad Maynard. Kicker Robbie Gould had his worst season since his rookie year, missing more kicks and not quite having the range of prior years. As good as he has been, Gould gets the benefit of the doubt and should have a strong 2011.
Forecast: Last summer I predicted the Bears would either be very good or very bad. They wound up being very good, winning the NFC North thanks to a stingy defense, great special teams, and an insane amount of good fortune. The defense will still be pretty good, and the special teams remain among the best, but I cannot bank on facing a string of backup quarterbacks again. Or opposing wideouts not completing touchdown catches. Or finishing 3rd in fumble recovery percentage by opponents. Or committing the fewest accepted penalties for the fewest penalty yards per play. Jay Cutler will continue to flash greatness in the midst of too many pedestrian mistakes, and the offensive line still has a long way to go. This franchise has a history of following up very good seasons with very bad ones, and I think that will hold here as well. The first three games are brutal: ATL, @NO, GB, or the three NFC teams that are definitively better than the Bears. It would not surprise me if they went 0-3, and Lovie Smith is not the kind of coach to produce a dramatic turnaround. Chicago falls to 6-10 in 2011. |
