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| Jeff Risdon. 30th August, 2011 - 7:21 pm
 2010 Record: 9-7
Point Differential: +119
Turnover Margin: -6
Sack Differential: +9
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 15th
Passing: 2nd
3rd Down: 4th
Scoring: 2nd
QB: In Philip Rivers, the Chargers have a fantastic talent that continues to progress towards elite status. After last season many would argue he is there already; the only hole on his résumé is taking a team to the Super Bowl, yet Rivers can hardly be faulted for that team shortcoming. In his monster 2010, Rivers completed 66% of his passes for a league-leading 4710 yards. Perhaps most impressive was his league-leading 8.7 yards per attempt, a sign that Rivers can air it out all over the field with that accuracy. He finished in the top 3 in just about every measuring stick used for quarterbacks. That includes sacks, which highlights the biggest knock on Rivers--he is a heavy-footed stationary target that lacks a quick release. His self-assured mouthiness causes some discontent--mainly among opponents--but his teammates have embraced his swagger and confidence. Rivers should once again be a Pro Bowler and a legit MVP candidate and very much deserves to be mentioned with the top QBs in the league.
Billy Volek is a trusted veteran backup that the team has imbued with great confidence. A former starter with some freakishly prolific performances when given chances, Volek likes to attack down the field and is one of the more respected #2 QBs in the league. San Diego coaches are very pleased with undrafted rookie Scott Tolzein from Wisconsin, who will hold the clipboard and learn before likely taking over for Volek next year. Tolzein has shown poise and a quick learning curve, not to mention better than anticipated accuracy.
RB: This is a bit of a mystery, with supercharged Darren Sproles leaving for New Orleans. Ryan Mathews was the first round draft pick a year ago but got outplayed by Mike Tolbert, and how the two split the role and work together remains an open question. Mathews struggled with injuries and missed four full games and parts of others, though he still did manage a decent 4.3 yards per carry. Instead of working his tail off to come back stronger, Mathews showed up after the lockout heavier and blasé by most accounts. Tolbert already had the edge in terms of running with purpose and a bounce in his step, so expect him to get the bulk of the early work while Mathews runs himself back into shape. Last year the carries were divvied up with Tolbert getting 182, Mathews 158, and Sproles 50. All were similar in production, so look for Coach Norv Turner to ride the hot hand. Tolbert is more of a bruiser that reminds me of former Steeler Barry Foster. Mathews is more of a one-cut slasher with his high knees and deceptive stutter-step. If both stay healthy they give the Chargers an excellent 1-2 punch.
Replacing Sproles will not be easy. The diminutive dynamo only registered 50 carries but had a huge impact on defenses with his mere presence on the field. Teams had to scheme to contain him, and the Chargers did a great job moving him around, lining him up in the slot or using him as a receiver out of the backfield. Rookei Jordan Todman appears to have the upper hand after the first two preseason games, ahead of Curtis Brinkley. Both are small by RB standards but huge compared to Sproles and neither has his water-bug like ability to make tacklers miss even in a phone booth. He does have a very natural knack for setting up his blockers and darting out into open space. Todman showed good receiving skills at UConn, but compensating for the 50+ receptions and open field ability of Sproles is asking too much.
Some of that work could fall on fullback Jacob Hester. He is a kind of Swiss Army knife, with enough vision and acceleration to get a handful of carries a game but also enough pop to make a decent lead blocker. Hester also has nice hands and a good feel for the offense.
One point of emphasis with all the runners is ball security, which took a toll on the Chargers last year. Sixteen lost fumbles contributed mightily to that -6 turnover margin, and several were of the how in the world?!? variety. Expect a much greater attention to detail and care of the football.
WR/TE: The first thing you notice when looking at the receivers of the Chargers is the size. This is a physically imposing group that looks more like a Cage basketball team than a collection of football players. Vincent Jackson is a power forward playing wideout, a physical nightmare for DBs at 6-foot-5 and a stacked 228 pounds. Malcolm Floyd is the small forward, just a hair shorter and about 5 pounds lighter than Jackson. Those are the starters. Patrick Crayton plays shooting guard, err, slot, at 6-foot-1 and a muscled up 208. Seyi Ajirotutu is the hybrid guard/forward at 6-foot-3 and 215 with a 40-inch vertical. Rookie Vincent Brown is the only guy the Chargers realistically expect to catch more than 5 passes that measures in under six feet; he is 5-foot-11 and not skinny. Even the deep roster guys like Kelley Washington and Laurent Robinson are in the upper echelon size-wise.
Alas, this is football and not the hard wood. Fortunately, Jackson has become a legit downfield threat, forming a great mind meld with Rivers on using his body to present a target and go get the ball. He missed most of last season embroiled in a nasty contract holdout, and he is disgruntled with playing out 2011 under the franchise tag. Jackson is the unhappiest man in the world earning $13 million this year and he is not shy about expressing his resentment. Thus far he has left all that off the field, and he appears to realize that he is getting top-5 wideout money this year and will cash in with a massive contract this coming offseason...assuming he continues to average over 17 yards per catch on about 65 receptions. Jackson could threaten to lead the league in receiving yardage, and he is an above-average blocker as well.
Floyd nicely filled the void (hey, that rhymes!) while Jackson sulked, finishing in the top 5 in the league in yards per catch at 19.4. More impressively, 33 of his 37 receptions resulted in first downs, the highest percentage in the league. That is also indicative of how the team uses Floyd, as he seldom does anything under 15 yards. With Floyd on one side and Jackson on the other, that puts a tremendous strain on safeties and creates all kinds of room over the middle and underneath. Crayton almost exactly split the season with Jackson, getting hurt the same week Jackson returned. Expect to see Crayton doing more of that over-the-middle work. He has good shiftiness for a man of his size and his hands are excellent. Crayton has been hampered by camp injuries, which was an open door for 3rd rounder Brown to run through. Unfortunately Brown himself missed the first few weeks of team activities and it will cost him a larger opportunity to take over the slot role. Brown has impeccable hands and good body control, though he is not the fastest or quickest athlete for his size.
Tight end Antonio Gates once actually was a basketball player before becoming a perennial Pro Bowl receiver. Seemingly chronic toe issues have slowed him down lately, but he remains a Pro Bowl-caliber pass catcher with great size and gigantic hands. He still has the speed to split out and cause matchup issues, pushing the seam deep and really pressuring the safeties. Randy McMichael provides veteran insurance should the old Gates not return, though his best days are behind him as well.
OL: If everyone is healthy, the starting five is very good. While that is true of most teams, it really resonates with the Chargers. Left to right, the starters are all the same as what took the field the majority of 2011: Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, Nick Hardwick, Louis Vasquez, and Jeromey Clary.
The left side is the strong side, with McNeill having made two Pro Bowls in his four years and Dielman making the postseason honor four years running. McNeill is a giant at 6-foot-8 and over 330 pounds but has tremendous feet for a man his size. He is also very quick with his hand punch, not an easy thing when your arms are that long. He has missed some time this summer battling some injury issues, but team insiders insist he will be fine. Dielman is tough as nails and incredibly aggressive from snap to whistle. He pulled off the amazing feat of not allowing a sack of committing a penalty in 2009 and saw very little dropoff last year.
Hardwick is solid in the middle and is playing for a big new contract, giving him added incentive to impress. He forever holds my high regard for hailing from Franklin, Indiana, where I spent my middle school years, but his play speaks for itself. Hardwick is more of an old-school scrapper than most of the younger center talent entering the league lately. Clary is effective on the right edge, though he does get grabby at times. The team felt good enough about him to sign him to a big contract this offseason.
There is a somewhat unexpected camp battle being waged at right guard, where Louis Vasquez has been the weak link of the line. Tyronne Green has turned heads in camp and could steal the starting gig if Vasquez continues to forget that he is in fact allowed to move his feet once he gets engaged in blocking. At minimum, Green has shown enough that the team feels better about the depth up front. Scott Mruczkowski is a solid interior backup. Depth at tackle is a big question, where rookie Stephen Schilling has not looked good in preseason and Brandyn Dombrowski is a tall guard masquerading as a tackle. McNeill and Clary must stay in prime condition all season long.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 4th
Passing: 1st
3rd Down: 4th
Scoring: 10th
DL: San Diego utilizes a 3-man front, though new Defensive Coordinator Greg Manusky brings a different style from the departed (to become Head Coach in Carolina) Ron Rivera. Mansuky would be wise not to tinker too much, because the Chargers have a collection of veteran talent that blends nicely with some emerging young bucks.
Antonio Garay replaced venerable Jamal Williams at the nose and exploded into an oft-dominant force. Garay is a quick, attacking nose that likes to play the angles and get into the backfield. He put up 6 sacks and 48 tackles, both outstanding numbers for a nose and completely foreign territory to the Chargers. He had done very little in his 7-year career to that point, so it remains to be seen if Garay can dial it up again, but all signs are promising. Ends Jacques Cesaire and Luis Castillo are both solid all-around performers that can register a play in the backfield here and there but are better at stacking up the line of scrimmage. Castillo has flashed playmaking ability at times, and the team would like to see more consistency from him.
First round pick Corey Liuget could force his way into the starting lineup, likely at the expense of Cesaire. Liuget was a one-man wrecking crew at Illinois and has a lot of pass rush moves in his arsenal. He will certainly see the field a lot, and he has looked like the real deal during preseason. Canadian collegian Vaughn Martin is still a bit of a project as a reserve, but coaches have said he has made giant strides. He and Liuget both have the bulk to play inside should the team opt to follow the en vogue trend of using both 3 and 4 man fronts. I like the concept of bringing in three fresh linemen to provide a relentless attack, and Cam Thomas has some potential to be an integral part of the second wave. He must start playing to the level he thinks he is, as thus far his mouth is writing checks his play has not yet proven it can cash. Ogemdi Nwagbuo is death to announcers and spell checkers everywhere, but he is also a competent rotation player that gives the Chargers a great deal of depth up front. If Castillo and/or Cesaire are not producing, they could be sent packing.
LB: The Chargers are fine outside, where Pro Bowler Shaun Philips is entering his prime as one of the more unsung pass rushers in the league. Philips is capable in coverage and does not miss many tackles, but his best attribute is attacking the edge and getting into the backfield. He does not always play with great discipline, however. Veteran Travis LaBoy is hoping to come back from a nasty arm injury and claim the other starting spot. He is competing against Larry English, the 2009 first rounder that has yet to live up to expectations. English was finally starting to show real progress when his 2010 ended prematurely, and the Chargers are hopeful he can pick up where he left off. Shedding blockers and quickly locating the ball more consistently will go a long way towards that. Young journeyman Antwan Barnes brings pass rushing depth to the outside, but little else.
Inside is another story. Stephen Cooper started last year with mixed results, although he was better than fellow starter Kevin Burnett. Cooper tore his biceps in camp and could well be lost for the year, though he has thus far shunned surgery and hopes to play through the pain. As Chargers fans know from Shawne Merriman, that sounds nice but often winds up with disastrous results. To that end, the team went out and brought in Takeo Spikes from San Francisco, where he ran the defense of Manusky the past few years. Spikes will be 35 in December and appears to be the classic example of having one late-career renaissance season. He was fantastic last year, but had been little more than adequate for the past few years beforehand. His instincts and fitness regimen provide some optimism, and his leadership will be a major asset for this defense.
Spikes will be counted on to mentor young Donald Butler, the 3rd round pick in 2010 that will be a much more prominent part of the defense in 2011. Butler missed his rookie season, so he is a wild card that will be given as many reps as he can earn. As insurance, the Chargers took Jonas Mouton as a surprise as a 2nd round pick (I had a 5th round grade on him), though he has not impressed observers in camp. Holdover Andrew Gachkar is primarily a special teams player, and not a real good one at that.
Secondary: You do not get the #1 overall pass defense in the league without a pair of corners that can cover. Quentin Jammer and Antoine Cason go about their business without fanfare, but they are very effective together. Jammer is the savvy veteran that knows all the little tricks; he is the master of the subtle bumps and pushes. He also knows every opposing receiver inside out, and all that film room work really shows on the field. Jammer is also one of the best corners in the league in run support. Cason is coming off his best season, and it came as teams threw his way more than ever. His 17 PDs and 4 INTs both led the team. He also greatly improved his tackling prowess, allowing little YAC when giving up the completion.
Eric Weddle is now the highest paid safety in the NFL after the Chargers decided he was too valuable to part with in free agency. This is a prime example that salary does not necessarily equate with talent. Weddle is a solid starter with good instincts, but he is not a playmaker or a particularly great coverage safety. Keeping him certainly helps, and they had the cap room to burn. The Chargers are gambling that oft-injured Bob Sanders can come back and provide a reasonable facsimile of the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2007. He has played just 9 games since, and that includes last season when he lasted for exactly two snaps. I will be honest--I think Sanders is done, but the Chargers were right to take a chance. If he cannot answer the bell, Steve Gregory will step back in. He is not the impact hitter Sanders is, but that is why Sanders cannot stay healthy. Darrell Stuckey is a solid rotation player that understands his role here.
The biggest camp battle is for the nickel back spot, where rookie Marcus Gilchrist is fighting with Dante Hughes. This is a case where both guys are eminently capable. Hughes performed pretty well a year ago, though he does not make many plays on the ball. I really liked Gilchrist coming out of Clemson, and he has the ability to handle the quickness in the slot. Gilchrist also has the ability to play safety, so expect to see both on the field against spread formations. Rookie Shareece Wright will be the fifth corner and likely see little action other than special teams. A veteran with speed that gets cut from another roster might stick here.
Special Teams: If it could go wrong, it did. San Diego managed to miss the playoffs despite having the #1 offense and the #1 defense, and the finger points squarely at the special teams. The coverage units were an unmitigated disaster after letting Pro Bowl special teamer Kassim Osgood depart. They allowed three return TDs in two close early losses to KC and Seattle. They lost a game to Oakland thanks to two blocked punts. They lost to the Rams when Nate Kaeding slipped while attempting a field goal, leading to Kaeding missing the next week--a loss where a false start penalty on a field goal pushed it back beyond the range of replacement kicker Kris Brown and led to a 3-point loss.
All sorts of changes abound, save the guys that actually put ball to foot. Nate Kaeding continues to have among the best FG ranges of any placekicker. Mike Scifres has a booming leg at punter, sometimes too much for his own good. New Special Teams Coordinator Rich Bisaccia had solid success in Tampa, and the new kickoff rules will allow Kaeding to boot almost every kickoff into touchback territory, which ameliorates one problem. Teams with wretched special teams one season often turn it around quickly, but the Bolts will do so without their primary return man in Darren Sproles. As long as the special teams units are not losing games again, they should be good enough.
Forecast: Perhaps no team in history underachieved as much as the 2010 Chargers, who led the league in both total offense and defense yet failed to make the playoffs. That has brought about a real sense of urgency and responsibility in San Diego, from Coach Norv Turner on down. This is a very talented, explosive team with all the pieces in place to make a Super Bowl run. To do that, they need greater attention to detail and more overall maturity and cohesiveness. While everyone will always questions the ability of Turner to coordinate it all together, the players themselves bear the ultimate responsibility. If Philip Rivers truly wants to become regarded in the same breath as Brady or Manning, he needs to take over this team and lead it to bigger and better things. I like that the Chargers were not afraid to make changes, even to such a talented team. Even with their notorious history of slow starts and a challenging schedule, I still see the San Diego Chargers running away with the AFC West. San Diego finishes 12-4 and should win at least one playoff game. At least... |
