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| Jeff Risdon. 29th August, 2011 - 7:27 pm
 2010 Record: 8-8
Point Differential: -66
Turnover Margin: -15
Sack Differential: -12
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 3rd
Passing: 27th
3rd Down: 13th
Scoring: 18th
QB: This is a very perplexing situation. David Garrard is the returning starter and, at times in 2010, Garrard was a near-elite quarterback that led the Jaguars to several big wins and kept them in the thick of the playoff race until very late in the year. But the team has apparently tired of his Jekyll/Hyde fluctuations and traded up in the first round of the draft to snag Missouri product Blaine Gabbert. It will be interesting to see how Coach Jack Del Rio manages this awkward transition.
Garrard is difficult to dissect. If you watched him toss near-perfect games against Dallas, Houston, and the first Colts game last year, you would wonder why on earth the Jaguars would be contemplating replacing him. In fact, Garrard had more games with a QB rating over 120 (5) than anyone else except Tom Brady last year despite missing two games. At his best, Garrard looks effortless at throwing the ball precisely where and when it needs to be, striking receivers in perfect stride and playing at a groovy tempo. He can throw on the move and has good mobility, with just under 1000 yards rushing over the last three years as a full-time starter.
Alas, just as often as Garrard is legitimately awesome, he can be awful. Take the Redskins game last year, a late-season contest against a defeated team with nothing to play for. Garrard looked terribly indecisive and held the ball far too long, unleashing several wildly off-target passes. Or the Philly game, where he absorbed 7 sacks and played like a rookie making his first start against the Steel Curtain from the 70s. To put it simply, there is no rudder for Garrard; he wins games and he loses them by himself. That kind of unpredictable volatility wreaks havoc on the psyche of a football team, and the Jaguars have apparently had enough.
This team will belong to Blaine Gabbert going forward; the only question is how quickly he assumes the starting role. Early indications point to that being a lot sooner than expected, as he has shown a great command of the offense and better maturity than anticipated. However, Gabbert needs to improve his pocket presence and vision of the field. He comes from a system at Missouri where he only had to make one pre-snap read, and then just one pocket read as well. He struggled at completing deeper throws in college, and you can bet NFL defenses will make him prove he can beat them over the top before loosening up the shorter routes. I like the long-range potential of Gabbert (and his hair!) but it behooves the team to play Garrard unless Gabbert definitively shows he gives them a better chance to win right away.
Luke McCown returns as the #3. Extremely confident in his arm, McCown is the kind of quarterback that can step in and pull off a stunning upset or two but is also more apt to make too many poor decisions. He knows his role and could be a real asset in helping Gabbert.
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew has become one of the most reliable rushing threats in the league. A powerful, compact runner with huge thighs and nifty feet, MJD has tremendous leverage and balance that allows him to absorb contact and keep moving forward. While not blessed with elite speed, he has a second gear that serves him well once he gets to the second level. He did have offseason knee surgery and has missed all offseason work, so that does give pause for concern. His style really wears on the defense, and MJD fulfills the cliché of a back that is better on carries 11-20 than carries 1-10. MJD is one of the few backs that can handle 30 carries in a game a few times a year.
Fortunately, he does not have to with the depth here. Rashad Jennings was excellent as the primary backup a year ago, putting up nearly 500 yards at 5.5 yards per carry. He is a more direct runner than MJD, who will hop around a little looking for the best hole; Jennings goes full bore from the second he gets the ball and makes his own hole if he has to. Like MJD, he is a solid receiver and perfectly acceptable at blitz pickup. Deji Karim is primarily a kick returner but he has some juice in the backfield as well. Fullback Greg Jones sees the field like a runner and is an excellent lead blocker. Contrary to popular opinion, he does not touch the ball much though, with just 8 carries over the last three seasons.
WR/TE: Jacksonville has a theme with their wideouts: speed. This is not the most skilled group in the league, but few have better aggregate speed than the top four in Jacksonville. Mike Thomas is the de facto #1 receiver and he is an emerging talent. Small but feisty and incredibly sure-handed, Thomas has progressed with his footwork and his body control to go with his excellent speed. Though he is not afraid of contact, Thomas is not the toughest guy across the middle and does get bothered by press coverage from bigger corners. He would be better served as a #2, and thus far he has yet to establish himself as a downfield threat; his career 11.2 yards per reception is lower than some tight ends. The Jaguars hope to see Thomas get to at least 14 YPC, which is not unreasonable.
Jason Hill has decent size as the other starter. Plucked from San Francisco where the coaches were not sure what they had and tired of his injury issues, Hill looked good in limited playing time with the Jaguars last year and hopes to build on that. Finally healthy and looking like the deep burner that was once a 3rd round pick, Hill is a faster version of the departed Mike Sims-Walker. The team is very hopeful that another injury-plagued youngster, Jarrett Dillard, can also stay healthy and contribute. Dillard is a sticky-handed possession-type that runs great routes. At least that was my book on him coming out of Rice two years ago; Dillard has played in just 6 games in his two NFL seasons. He has looked solid in camp and preseason, but questions will abound for anyone that has missed that much time.
The wild card is rookie Cecil Shorts, a small-school blazer from D-III powerhouse Mount Union. Shorts is physically very similar to Hill, an athletic-looking six feet tall with long arms and long fingers, but is both faster and more explosive coming off the line. Shorts has been the talk of camp, catching everything in sight and consistently getting open deep with a great change-of-speed move. I liked Shorts quite a bit heading into the draft, and he could be a very unexpected and pleasant surprise. Still, it is a long way from playing against John Carroll to playing against Johnathan Joseph and other NFL corners. I am not a fantasy football guy, but I would strongly consider Cecil Shorts with my final round pick. One area he can really help himself earn more early playing time is blocking, which is not a strength of any of the top three wideouts.
Tight end Marcedes Lewis finally had the breakout season the Jaguars had been hoping for since taking him in the first round in 2006. Lewis has great size and presents a huge target across the middle. His concentration on the ball and explosion off the line really improved over the last season and a half, and that turned a fairly pedestrian receiver into a very good one. He has very good chemistry with Garrard on hot routes, and it will be interesting to see if that carries over with Gabbert. Lewis is a lethal red one target, pulling down 10 touchdowns a year ago and making 6 other receptions that wound up inside the 3. Zach Miller is a solid #2 tight end, a jack-of-all-trades workhorse that can play in line of flexed out. Miller even plays some h-back, and he has the ability to run gadget plays as well, as he is a converted college QB.
Should the injury bug bite, and it often has in Jacksonville with the receivers, the depth looks bleak. Kassim Osgood is next in line as a receiver but he is almost exclusively a special teams ace, where he is an All Pro-caliber talent. Tiquan Underwood, Jamar Newsome, and rookie Armon Binns are all fighting for the bottom roster spots. That scares nobody except the Jaguars own coaches.
OL: The Jaguars have a lot of young talent on this line, but it has yet to coagulate into a strong unit. That could change this year, and a lot of that has to do with left tackle Eugene Monroe. A top 10 overall pick in 2009, Monroe has been merely good, not great. All the physical tools are in place, and Monroe dropped some weight in the offseason and looks more agile and chiseled than he has in the past. He must learn to play with more snarl and menace, finishing his blocks and going hard to the whistle on every snap. Monroe has been solid in pass protection and has fared quite well against the premier pass rushers in the AFC South, Dwight Freeney and Mario Williams, allowing just 1.5 sacks combined in his 4 games against them. The team is optimistic that Monroe will take the next step in 2011, and I like his chances as well.
The right tackle spot is more of a question. Eben Britton, like Monroe an immediate starter as a rookie in 2009, regressed badly in 2010 after a first year where he was clearly the better of the two. Injuries cut his 2nd year short after just seven games and he was clearly hampered by leg issues that impacted his explosiveness and balance. Now he is coming off shoulder surgery and a procedure on his back after the first preseason game. Unlike Monroe, Britton showed up in less than prime condition, bothered by his back and looking "doughier" to quote a teammate. For a scrapper like Britton who excelled more on effort and attitude than sound technique, this is not an encouraging development. The team insists Britton will be ready for the regular season, but that seems awfully unrealistic. Journeyman Tony Moll will take over if Britton is not ready, but that is a downgrade in run blocking and hopefully (if you are a Jags fan) a push in pass protection. Moll is better served as the top reserve swing tackle--the role he held in Baltimore last year--and he does not bring the outlaw biker mentality that marks the on-field persona of Britton. Former Giant Guy Whimper is also in the mix, but he belongs as the #4 tackle. If he winds up starting any games, this line is in serious trouble.
Brad Meester returns as the center, and the greybeard of the line is still a solid all-around performer. His line calls are very good and he does a good job opening and sealing holes for MJD to exploit up the gut. Now 34, there is concern that the years are catching up to Meester, who struggled in pass protection as 2010 wore on. But the team is very reliant on his steadying presence in the middle, and top reserve John Estes has yet to show he is ready for game action.
The Jaguars can barely curb their enthusiasm for rookie left guard Will Rackley. Their third round pick from Lehigh, Rackley quickly took over the starting job and looks to become a dominant force for years. One team observer that I know is not prone to hyperbole told me Rackley could make the Pro Bowl as a rookie. That seems overly optimistic, but Rackley has all the physical tools and the maturity to make it happen. Right guard Uche Nwaneri is pretty solid as a tactician and works well with Meester in handling interior rushes. Should they need a 3rd guard, Moll would likely slide in from tackle. The former Packer teammate of Moll, Jason Spitz, will get that nod if Moll proves too valuable outside. Spitz can also play center in a pinch, and the free agent deal he got pretty much ensures he will stick on the roster. One camper to root for: Grand Valley State rookie Cameron Bradfield, a long-armed tackle with developmental potential.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 22nd
Passing: 28th
3rd Down: 27th
Scoring: 27th
DL: The Jaguars have quietly assembled a pretty darn good young defensive front. The tackles in particular are emerging as quite a strong combination. Terrance Knighton is the beefy immovable object, Tyson Alualu the pocket-collapsing gap shooter. Knighton has battled weight issues, hence the "Pot Roast" nickname, but he is a real strong interior presence. Though he is most noted for his run-stuffing, Pot Roast did manage four sacks last year and has sneaky speed for a 340-pounder. Seriously.
Alualu quickly proved the Jags made no mistake by taking him #10 overall in the 2010 NFL draft, a move that stunned a shocked Radio City crowd and dumbfounded draftniks who had not done their homework. Blessed with an outstanding first step and very good lateral quickness, Alualu also notched four sacks before slamming into the proverbial rookie wall late in the season. He should improve his pacing in his second year, and learning to not try and rush the passer on every play--including runs--will make him much more effective. Alualu is a keeper that should start for years and could threaten double-digit sacks annually.
Another youngster, second-year man Austen Lane, will see his role increased at end. Lane is quick for a high-cut big man, and he brings explosive power out of his stance. Although he failed to record any sacks in 2010, Lane showed progress and did get credited for 9 QB pressures in limited duty. Lane has fared well in run support, and the team parted ways with el busto (told you so!) Derrick Harvey in order to free up more time for Lane. Lane will rotate with mid-August pickup Matt Roth, an underrated overachiever that played OLB in Cleveland and Miami with mixed success. Venerable veteran Aaron Kampman needs to play better and stay on the field on the other side. This is a critical season for Kampman, now 32 and having missed eight games in each of the last two seasons. The team signed him with the expectation of double-digit sacks and solid leadership; Kampman has not lived up to either goal yet.
LB: Extreme Makeover, Jacksonville Edition. Former starters Justin Durant and Kirk Morrison are gone, replaced by free agents Paul Posluszny and Clint Session. Posluszny is the key, as the former Bills backer will fill the spot of Morrison in the middle of the defense. Posluszny is your prototypical throwback middle linebacker: physical, intense, smart, and technically sound. The knocks on him are legit; he has struggled with injuries and is not the fastest guy, though his range is just fine 95% of the time. He fits well with a team coached by a former middle linebacker, and the Jaguars are hopeful he will convey a more physical tone and fearsome presence. Morrison was decent but was not a difference maker or much of a physical presence. Posluszny brings a lot more to his hits and has the bulk to better handle blockers.
Like Morrison, Durant played okay but failed to make anything happen. The two combined for just 3 passes defended, with zero sacks, zero forced fumbles and zero interceptions, an unacceptable lack of production. Session missed ten games with the Colts but managed to surpass most of those numbers by himself. As with Posluszny in the middle, Session is a more assertive, more dynamic player on the strong side. And as with Posluszny, the Jaguars are gambling that his injury history (Session has played more than 14 games just once in his four years) remains history. The one thing Durant did well was cover, so Session will have to raise his game a bit there. Let me put that into context; Durant was the best cover LB on a team that had one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history.
Their best backer a year ago was Daryl Smith, and he returns on the weak side. Smith is quietly one of the better backers in the league. Quick and physical, Smith is rarely out of position and can both cover and blitz. The coaching staff is very optimistic that having better talent around him will help Smith thrive and earn a Pro Bowl berth, and if the other two starters stay healthy I think they will be proven quite prescient. They desperately need him to continue to emerge as a playmaker.
Depth is spotty. Russell Allen got a few starts last year and looked passable. Because he knows the defense well, he will primarily back up Posluszny in the middle. Jacob Cutrera is a try-hard special teamer about two spots too high on the depth chart as the top outside backup backer. Former Giant Gerris Wilkinson runs well but fails to stop it. He should see some action in nickel packages matching up with tight ends. Kyle Bosworth and Scotty Lutrus round out the group and will not be seen anywhere but on special teams, if at all.
Secondary: If you are an optimist, you look at their secondary a year ago and realize it really cannot get any worse. If you are a pessimist, you realize that even modest improvement still leaves the Jaguars well behind most teams in pass defense. Both starting corners, Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox, regressed from better 2009 seasons. Cox was simply brutal, getting yanked in the opener and sitting on the bench for a few weeks. He played better upon his return, but still gives too much cushion in "off" coverage and lacks the physical mentality to fight receivers off their routes or tussle for the ball. Mathis is hitting a contract year and was a Pro Bowl-esque corner for much of the prior five years. Getting 100% healthy and staying there will help him get back to that level, and I like the fact he is playing for his last big payday. The starters will both be better, but they have a long way to go before this pass defense is even average. Having a better slot/nickel back would help, but the Jags are saddled with the winner of a camp battle between former Jet Drew Coleman and former Patriot Terrence Wheatley. Both are "former" players of better teams for a reason. Big David Jones has never been able to match his solid rookie season but lingers as a hopeful.
Safety is still a flaming mess. Former Raven Dawan Landry will help, but his specialty is stuffing the run. To be fair, Landry is quite good at that, racking up 200 tackles over the last two seasons. Courtney Greene wears number 36, but it might as well have been a bullseye as much as teams picked on him in coverage. He shows a lack of instincts and does not have the great speed to compensate, particularly if he has to change direction. He will likely start once again, but only because rookie Chris Prosinski has missed most of camp with a bum hamstring. Prosinski was a stunner as a 4th round pick, based almost entirely on athletic measurables and one fantastic game against a subpar Texas team. He did impress in player-organized workouts, but that bullseye will pass from Greene until he proves otherwise. Don Carey was just as bad as Greene, and he is fighting to stick on the roster with undrafted rookie Matt Estrada.
Special Teams: The Jaguars had a tale of two seasons all rolled into one in 2010. Josh Scobee was fantastic as the placekicker early, but slumped badly late, both on field goals and kickoff distances; he missed every kick beyond 39 yards after Thanksgiving. He did nail the game-winning 59 yarder against the Colts, and Scobee has been reliable for a few years now, so I expect him to bounce back nicely. Likewise, the coverage units were better early than late. Then again the whole team was, so this presents a sort of chicken vs. egg argument. Kassim Osgood is one of the best punt and kick cover men in NFL history, and Montell Owens is excellent as well, so once again I expect a strong rebound from the late swoon.
Punter Adam Podlesh took his talents to Chicago, and the Jaguars filled the hole by taking Texans castoff Matt Turk. Podlesh set a team record in net punting yards last year but they think the ancient Turk (he is 42 going on 60) can do just as well. He was great in 09, not so much last year.
Deji Karim is the primary kick return man, while Mike Thomas handles the punt duties. Karim is the thickest returner you will likely ever see, but he is good enough at it to keep the gig. They have been looking for someone to relieve Thomas and let him focus on the offense, with Scotty McGee being the lead dog.
Forecast: Jacksonville has a very strange national image. Everyone looks at their great collapse at the end of last year and thinks they are the goose on the table for Christmas dinner. I tend to see it a little differently. I see a team that finished 8-8 despite one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history, a team that held its own playoff destiny in its hands until Week 16 when their franchise studhorse running back got hurt. I see a team returning its entire coaching staff and a veteran quarterback, a team that can run the ball at will on just about anyone, and a team that can only get better in pass defense and forcing turnovers. Even moderate improvement in both areas makes this a very strong playoff sleeper. I think Blaine Gabbert will push David Garrard into a more consistent performance. I think the long-term uncertainty around the coaching staff and the fate of the franchise in northern Florida gives this team a sense of urgency to band together and go out blazing. Okay, that last point greatly concerns me as well, as does the knee of MJD and the roller coaster that is David Garrard. But I just get a feeling that this team will do very well within the AFC South, and they have some winnable non-divisional road games. The Jacksonville Jaguars finish 9-7 and that just might be good enough to win the AFC South.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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