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| Jeff Risdon. 26th August, 2011 - 7:46 pm
 2010 Record: 10-6
Point Differential: +47
Turnover Margin: -3
Sack Differential: +30
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 6th
Passing: 10th
3rd Down: 21st
Scoring: 8th
QB: Eli Manning comes off a star-crossed season where he put up monster numbers, but mixed in a horrifying number of interceptions and third down misfires. Manning rewrote the Giants passing record book, topping 4000 yards and setting new personal bests in completion percentage and both completions and attempts. Only Philip Rivers led more touchdown drives of longer than 80 yards, showing Manning can string together several good plays in a row and command the huddle. Eli even showed better pocket agility, cutting his sack total from 30 to 16 despite playing behind a deteriorating O-line. Head Coach Tom Coughlin showed great confidence and trust in Manning by calling more passes and using more of the field with those passes, and Eli responded pretty well.
Manning actually had the 5th highest QB rating in the league on 1st down, but ranked dead last among all 16-game starters in pretty much every statistical metric on 3rd down. His completion percentage was more than 20 points lower on 3rd down than 1st or 2nd downs, and his yards per attempt was nearly 3 yards lower as well. That means he was missing the water from a canoe far too frequently. Third down success tends to fluctuate from year to year, so I will give Eli somewhat of a pass and expect some improvement, but historically his 3rd down QB rating is almost 15 points lower than his overall QB rating, so this is nothing new for Manning.
...and then there is the interception issue. Twenty five INTs is a grossly unacceptable number, the 2nd most in the league since 2005. Several of them were of the head-scratching variety that most QBs eliminate from their repertoire around 11th grade. Eli likes to look where he is throwing the ball on his last glance before taking the snap, a tell that no QB coach has ever shaken out of him. Factor in his 5 lost fumbles and Manning is directly responsible for giving the ball away twice a game, possessions that the team cannot continue to simply give away. To be fair, Eli was better at avoiding the INTs before last season, and just a return to normalcy suggests Manning throws no more than 18 INTs but still loses another five fumbles. If he can cut those numbers back to the 2008 benchmark of 10 INTs and 2 lost fumbles, the Giants should be considered the NFC East favorites. Another season of more than 25 combined turnovers from Eli and this team struggles to win eight games.
The Giants need Eli to continue his impressive durability, because the backup position is a battle between David Carr and Sage Rosenfels. Carr knows the offense from his prior stint, but nothing the former #1 overall pick has done the last few seasons indicates he has anything to offer. Rosenfels is the epitome of the journeyman backup that will forever be most notable for blowing a three touchdown lead in less than 10 minutes for the Texans against the Colts. The team has liked what they have seen from youngster Ryan Perriloux, working hard and well to clear his name after an inglorious fall from LSU grace.
RB: The Giants were forerunners of the move to a shared backfield, and few teams do it better. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs share the role in a thunder/lightning arrangement that has been wildly successful for several years now. Bradshaw gets the majority of the carries as the lightning back. He is a shifty, speedy slasher with good vision and a great burst through the hole. While he does have a tendency to try and bounce too many runs too far outside, Bradshaw is not afraid to put his head down and drive for a couple extra yards. Ball security is his biggest problem, as his bad case of fumblitis last season got him benched. Coach Coughlin has a very short leash for mental mistakes like fumbles, though he also successfully cured Tiki Barber of that malady once upon a time.
Jacobs is the thunder back, a basketball power forward who happens to play running back. Jacobs is unlike most backs in that he never even tries to make a defender miss; he tries to initiate the contact and plow through them. He got fewer carries last year but rebounded nicely from a subpar 2009 where he struggled to get his mass moving forward. Expect a more equitable distribution between he and Bradshaw this year, with Jacobs getting the bulk of the red zone work. Bradshaw is a much more polished receiver, which does make him a better bet to get more third down reps.
The third back is the subject of a heated camp battle between vagabond prodigal Giant Andre Brown and holdover D.J. Ware. Brown was once a well-regarded 4th round draft choice but tore his Achilles in his first week of training camp. The Giants let him go, and he has been with a bevy of teams over the last two seasons during his various states of recovery. He showed up at camp looking leaner and quicker and has impressed enough to push Ware, who generally runs the ball pretty well but tends to be a liability in pass protection and is not noted for being the hardest working guy in Giants camp. I once compared Brown to a shorter Brandon Jacobs, and if he has indeed improved his quickness, he could be a real pleasant surprise. Rookie DaRel Scott is a straight-line blazer with good balance through the hole, when he finds the hole. Expect the running back the Giants elect not to keep to wind up on another roster quickly. Just because Ward signed a two-year contract this summer does not guarantee he will keep a spot.
Madison Hedgecock has been a disappointment the past few seasons, one of the weaker starting fullbacks in the league. The offense was better when converted TE Bear Pascoe filled the role a year ago, and Pascoe could seize the job now that Hedgecock is gone. Expect to see the former bull rider used in a hybrid FB/TE role, as the team is woefully thin at tight end (more on that later), which opens the door for rookie Henry Hynoski.
WR/TE: Hakeem Nicks has emerged as one of the better playmakers in the league, a big downfield threat with great confidence and a nose for the end zone with the ball in his hands. With 17 touchdowns in his first two seasons, Nicks has nicely filled the role of #1 receiver. Last year he proved he could be effective on shorter routes, improving his body positioning and cleaning up his footwork on cuts. He is a difficult matchup and is not afraid to tell corners so, but with the milquetoast Manning running the show the Giants need some spice in the passing offense. Mario Manningham finished 2010 with a flourish, going over 100 yards receiving in each of the final three games after being inconsistent up to that point. The Giants hope, and desperately need that Manningham has turned the corner; I remain skeptical of a guy that dropped 11 passes over his final 2 games at Michigan and got caught smoking pot two weeks before the Combine, but I reserve the right to be proven wrong.
The offense took a hit when steady Steve Smith went down with a torn up knee. Smith did all the dirty work across the middle and had earned the trust of Manning for those times where they really needed a completion. Now that indispensable role falls to either Domenik Hixon or Victor Cruz. Hixon knows the offense well, and in 2009 he looked on the verge of being a more integral part of the plans. But his time at wideout was shorter last year, focusing more on his return specialist duties. He has good size and a nice catching radius but does not always get good separation from the defender. He is coming off a knee injury as well. Cruz has little trouble getting open, but securing the ball is another issue. Shifty rookie Jerrel Jernigan has the makings of a slot dynamo, but a college heel injury and the lockout hampered his progress enough that he likely will not do much other than return punts this year. I like his long-term potential quite a bit. Redskins castoff Devin Thomas is fighting with IR staple Ramses Barden for the other roster spot; expect Thomas to win based on his special teams ability.
Kevin Boss was a decidedly average tight end, but his somewhat surprising departure leaves the Giants in a real bad spot. Tissue-soft Travis Beckum is the best pass catcher of the bunch, but even he will tell you blocking is not his strong suit. He is more of a big and slow wideout (slow being relative) than a tight end and has really struggled when pressed or going across the middle. Jake Ballard is more of a big blocker that spent last year on the practice squad, but he is a plodder that appears to be an in-line blocking specialist and red zone target at most. Bear Pascoe is the best blocker by a wide margin but his services are probably more vital at fullback. Daniel Coats is hoping to save his NFL career after a few unimpressive years in Cincinnati and Denver, and his sheer experience gives him a chance. The Giants are going to miss the production and modest skill of Boss; like Steve Smith, Eli Manning looked for him quite a bit when the chips were down.
OL: Long a pillar of stability, major changes abound up front. Shaun OHara, Rich Seubert, and Shawn Andrews were opening day starters a year ago, and all are now gone. OHara and Seubert had started at center and left guard since 2007 and replacing their chemistry and cohesion will not be easy.
The new center is former 49er David Baas, who is probably an overall talent upgrade over OHara but must learn a new offense and different line calls that OHara could make in his sleep. Baas should be up for the task but there could be a few early bumps in the road. David Diehl regains his old starting spot at LG. He started there before Seubert took over, and Diehl has been better as the #6 lineman the past few seasons. He lacks the spunk of Seubert and tends to keep his pads too high, but the pass protection probably will not miss a beat. Eli was sacked just 16 times last season, a testament to both his increased pocket agility and some fine protection up front that will be difficult to replicate.
The starting tackles are the same as the pair that ended last season. Left tackle William Beatty looked very uneasy when pressed into service last year, struggling to keep his balance and offering almost no run blocking at all. He was coming back from a broken toe, and I know how much that can screw with your balance, so Beatty should improve in his first full year as a starter. Still, he is not consistent with his pad level and will never have the kind of angry bull mentality that served Andrews well before back injuries essentially ended his career. Greybeard Kareem McKenzie returns on the right side, where his sound technique and ability to throw his weight around have served him well. He struggles with outside linebackers coming off the edge, and his play declined a little last year. He will not have as much help from the tight end, so pass protection could be more problematic going forward for the 32-year old. Controlling his temper would not hurt, either.
Kevin Boothe is valuable as the top reserve lineman. He can fill in at any spot and not be overwhelmed as long as it is merely temporary. Rookie James Brewer is a slow-footed project with lots of injury issues. Consider any contributions in 2011 gravy; he is more likely to stick on the practice squad. Adam Koets will get action at both guard and center if he proves he is recovered from a torn ACL, while Mitch Petrus looks to distinguish himself in his second season after getting little opportunity as a rookie. A fellow draftnik I respect once gushed over Jamon Meredith, who is in camp trying to win a tackle spot as well. I never saw anything other than good size, but the door is open to prove himself.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 8th
Passing: 9th
3rd Down: 1st
Scoring: 17th
DL: This unit has been the hallmark strength of the Giants for years now, and the 2011 edition looks very good as well. Justin Tuck is the feature performer, a physical end with very light feet for a 275-pound bundle of muscle. Tuck has bagged 12 sacks in two of the last three seasons, and led the Giants with 36 QB hurries and 21 tackles for loss a year ago. Those numbers are illustrative of a largely unblockable force that consistently wreaks havoc on opposing offenses. Tuck is a prime player in his physical prime and has assumed the leadership mantle quite nicely. He has enough mass to slide inside in certain situations, which frees up the edge for some of the younger talent to come in fresh on the edge.
Osi Umenyiora has been the other half of the devastating DE combo with Tuck, but his outlook is cloudy. After begging for a trade in response to what he felt was insulting contract talks, Umenyiora will now miss at least the first month with knee surgery. The team will miss his ability to agitate the opponent and his relentless barrage of pass rush moves. Like Tuck, Umenyiora bagged 12 sacks last year, though he was less visible against the run and does not get his hands up into passing lanes when stymied. Where Osi really came through was in forcing fumbles, a league-leading 10 of them (the Giants recovered 8).
Hoping to pick up the slack is second-year Jason Pierre-Paul, the Giants first round pick in 2010. JPP progressed much quicker than many expected, showing a real keen sense of timing and an understanding of how to use his hands and shake off blockers. He recorded five sacks and got in the way of several passes, displaying far more suavity than expected of a guy that started just 6 games in big-time college football. With his length and apparent quick learning curve, he could very well be the next great Giants pass rusher, and soon. Dave Tollefson will split the role with him, allowing JPP to focus on killing the QB while the solid veteran plugs up the run and eats up blockers. Tollefson is the kind of guy that great defenses love, a depth role player that goes about his business with enthusiasm and professionalism but can produce when called upon. Take him out of this defense with the surrounding talent and he would probably disappoint, but the Giants are better for having him.
Inside features some changes. Barry Cofield hopped on I-95 and took his talent to Washington, a year after Fred Robbins left for St. Louis. That has led to some roster churning, but the G-Men appear to still be in pretty good shape. Gabe Watson comes over from Arizona to start on the nose in the 4-3 scheme, transitioning from the 3-4 NT spot. He was up and down in performance and weight, and his role here is to occupy blockers and get in the way of the run up the middle. 2nd year behemoth Linval Joseph has impressed even hardened observers with his work in camp. He saw scant playing time a year ago, but looks ready to have a breakout 2nd season, at least as much as an interior lineman on a team with stud ends can break out. Underwhelming free agent acquisition Chris Canty will likely start with the winner of the Joseph/Watson battle, but if he plays like he did last year he is merely keeping the seat warm for rookie Marvin Austin. Austin was a first-round talent but fell due to character concerns after a year-long suspension at North Carolina. He is not the easiest guy to like, but Austin has the skills of a raw, young Tommie Harris. Early accounts have him really taking to the tough-but-fair coaching from Coughlin. This is a very talented group that is asked to do a lot and seldom lets fans or coaches down.
LB: Things are finally looking up for the Giants at this position, long an anathema. That is not to say they are loaded, but a rise to simple consistent competence will represent progress that can only help add more teeth to a very good defense. Jonathan Goff starts in the middle, flanked by Mathias Kiwanuka and Michael Boley. Goff took a real leap forward about halfway through last season, showing better overall awareness and more confidence in his ability to trust his eyes. He is undersized and lacks the sideline to sideline range, but seldom misses a tackle of assignment. Kiwanuka was once the next great pass rusher, but injuries and occasional lapses have led to a position change and significantly lowered expectations. He can still flash the speed rush, but after a gruesome injury ended another season short last year, Kiwanuka must prove he can handle the coverage assignments and spatial awareness needed to play strong-side linebacker.
Boley proved his Falcons-era detractors correct in their assertion that he cleaned up a lot of tackles away from the line of scrimmage but cannot make plays in the backfield or create turnovers. That is what most teams want from their Will backer, though merely cleaning up the tackles made Boley seem like an upgrade over prior incumbents. He will need to improve in coverage and show more aggression in his second year in New York. If not, impressive draft-day steal Greg Jones could seize the role. Jones is smallish and lacks great explosion but has outstanding instincts and makes an impact when he arrives at the ball.
Jones heads a list of young up-and-comers that have been the talk of camp. Undrafted Spencer Paysinger has actually taken some first-team reps while Boley and Clint Sintim have sat with injuries. Speedy 6th round pick Jaicquan Williams has also shown well, particularly in coverage. He was strong in that role at South Florida as well. The rookie threesome could very well be the staring linebacking corps in 2013; all three are keepers and will be given as much work as they show they can handle. That comes at the expense of Sintim, who was lost last year to a knee injury but was unproductive beforehand. Second-year man Philip Dillard is a hard hitter in the middle and he factors into the mix as well. All the young LB talent will also help on special teams, which many G-Men feel cost them a 2010 playoff berth. Method to the madness...
Secondary: This unit is already decimated by injuries and threatens to scuttle the entire defense. Terrell Thomas, the Giants leading tackler each of the last two seasons, was lost in the second preseason game with a torn ACL. The other projected starting corner, rookie 1st rounder Prince Amukamara, broke his foot in the offseason and will be out until at least November. Bruce Johnson, who was at least a contender for a starting safety spot and was expected to see lots of action in dime packages, tore his Achilles and is out for the year.
That leaves some serious questions at corner, enough that the team could toy with the idea of moving safety Antrell Rolle back to the position where he began his career. Aaron Ross, no stranger to injuries, will likely get the nod to start opposite Corey Webster. Ross has never lived up to 2nd round draftee expectations. Injuries have played no small part in that, but he tends to hesitate a beat before trusting what he sees and going about making the play. Webster is technically sound in coverage but needs safety help going inside, and he is not a corner that makes many plays on the ball. That was the specialty of Thomas, and his ballhawking will be sorely missed. Youngsters Michael Coe and Brian Jackson get golden opportunities to take advantage of being next man up, though both figure much more prominently on special teams. Coe has a physical style and good size but needs seasoning and improvement on his footwork.
Rolle and fellow Miami Hurricane alum Kenny Phillips will start at safety. Rolle is an impact player, though the Giants would like him to get his hands on more balls in flight than the one INT and four PDs of a year ago. Those numbers are watered down by the fact teams were more apt to challenge Phillips and Deon Grant, who often played safety when Rolle slid into slot coverage. His strong tackling stayed more consistent than in prior years, a good sign moving forward. Phillips got better as the season went on and he was further removed from microfracture surgery on his knee, though his play fell off in the final couple of weeks. He should have better range and more confidence in the repaired knee this year, and he was a big-time hitter with very good range before the injuries. The aforementioned Grant has been replaced by high-energy rookie Tyler Sash, though the door is apparently open for Grant to return to more prominent duty should Sash struggle to pick up the coverage schemes. New York uses three safety formations quite a bit, so having strong depth here is a must. The sad story of Chad Jones, the Giants 2nd round pick in 2010 who was nearly killed in a car accident that summer, appears to not yet have a happy ending. Get well soon Mr. Jones!
Special Teams: The Giants struggled in the return game a year ago, which led to a battle royale during camp between a whole host of return candidates. Rookie Jerrel Jernigan is the front-runner but has not looked very explosive in the first two preseason games. Domenik Hixon was middling a year ago but could get the job back if nobody steps up and takes it. Consider that a very bad sign, Giants fans...
Lawrence Tynes was solid kicking field goals, and the rule change that moves the kickoff to the 35 is a boon for his career as kickoff distance has been the primary knock on him. Matt Dodge did little to secure the punting job as a rookie, and will be challenged by former Jet Steve Weatherford. The Philly debacle certainly does not help the case of Dodge. Dodge has a bigger leg but Weatherford is much better at directional kicking. The coverage units ranked in the bottom 10 but should improve thanks to the infusion of young linebacker talent.
Forecast: Everything looked in place for the Giants until that fateful game in Week 15 against the Eagles and the Desean Jackson punt return disaster. The next week the Packers ripped the disheartened Giants 45-17 in a game that essentially decided the playoff spot that Green Bay ultimately rode to the Super Bowl. The Giants did so many things right, but made far too many costly and untimely errors. I expect Tom Coughlin to fix a lot of the mental mistakes, but the overall offensive talent level is lower than in recent times. How the Giants channel the disappointment from a year ago will be a major determining factor in their 2011 fate. The defense is probably good enough to win a playoff game or two, but Eli Manning and the offense must protect the ball and do a better job on 3rd down or else it all goes for naught. The virulent injury bug that has bitten in preseason must go away as well. I think we will know a lot about these Giants after the first three weeks: at Washington, home for St. Louis, and at Philly. If they are 2-1 or better, New York is a good bet to build confidence and make the playoffs, but if they have two losses and look shaky, the bottom could fall out quickly. In Coughlin I trust. The Giants finish 10-6 and in the thick of the NFC playoff picture.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
