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| Jeff Risdon. 24th August, 2011 - 12:31 pm
 2010 Record: 6-10
Point Differential: -41
Turnover Margin: -1
Sack Differential: -8
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 20th
Passing: 19th
3rd Down: 29th
Scoring: 24th
QB: Alex Smith returns for another season as the starting QB, for better or worse. Smith has had a long and star-crossed career with the Niners, interspersing moments of brilliance into large doses of decided mediocrity or worse. Not many expected him to return, but he chose a one-year deal to stay with San Francisco rather than shop his wares in free agency; he was one of the first players to sign once the lockout ended.
I have been a longtime critic of Smith, but he has a real opportunity here to salvage his career. New Coach Jim Harbaugh is a former NFL QB, but more importantly he played with passion and confidence that belied his merely average skills. Smith has the same sort of average skills but has seldom played with the intensity or confidence that raises his ability or transcends to his teammates. Harbaugh has a great offensive mind and is widely acknowledged as a strong QB mentor, so if it is ever going to happen for Alex Smith, it is now or never. Improving on third down would be a good place to start, as his third down QB rating was nearly 20 points lower than his overall mark.
He has just one season to prove it, because the team drafted Colin Kaepernick with a high second round pick, and the Nevada product has impressed everyone during the offseason. I am an unabashed supporter of Kaepernick, who throws the ball with as much velocity as any QB in the league and has great height and scrambling ability. He faces a steep learning curve from the gimmick pistol offense in college, where he only had to read one side of the field and had the green light to tuck and run. His skills are very reminiscent of Vince Young, though Kaepernick exudes leadership and camaraderie where Young is vapid and distant. Smith is the kind of person who will not have trouble guiding the rookie even though Kaepernick will take his job sooner than later. Expect a fairly short leash on Smith, the length depending on how ready Kaepernick is and how well the team responds to Smith.
The cupboard beyond the top two is dangerously bare. Undrafted rookie problem child Jeremiah Masoli and local Arena League refugee McLeod Bethel-Thompson are the other QBs that started camp, almost certainly the only camps that would have them. Backup from last season, David Carr, is long gone and will not be missed. Their mid-August dalliances with has-been Daunte Culpepper and never-was Josh McCown show their lack of confidence in Smith and the apparent steep learning curve for Kaepernick.
RB: A lot here is riding on the health of Frank Gore. An elite back with game-breaking skills when healthy, Gore has struggled to stay on the field with a litany of injuries that dates back to college. Few backs have his explosiveness through the hole, and his leg strength makes him a real load to bring down in the open field. Gore is also an excellent receiver, and he averaged over 10 yards per reception a year ago, exceptional for a running back with as many catches (over 4 per game average) as Gore pulls down. But he missed five games last year and has missed at least two games every year but one in his six-year career, which has made the Niners somewhat reluctant to reward him with a new contract.
To that end, the Niners have invested in more help. Brian Westbrook did not work a year ago, but rookie Anthony Dixon impressed with his between the tackles work. His role should expand in 2011, and he reported to camp in a more chiseled physique. At minimum, expect Dixon to be the short-yardage back and get a series or two per game as the feature back. If he can improve in the passing game, he could see even more action. Rookie Kendall Hunter factors in as the likely 3rd down back. The 4th rounder from Oklahoma State brings versatility, great balance, and surprising toughness for a 5-foot-7 guy. Xavier Omon brings depth with little experience, though he was once a draft sleeper of mine.
Moran Norris returns as the fullback, though that role could be changing with the new offensive system. Norris has served almost exclusively as a lead blocker, but Harbaugh used his fullbacks as both ballcarriers and receivers at Stanford. Considering he has just 66 total touches in 11 seasons, Norris will need to prove he can handle the ball or he could cede time to either Jack Corcoran or Bruce Miller.
WR/TE: There is strong potential here, but how that potential translates on the field is a tough question. Michael Crabtree at times has shown why the Niners made him the No. 10 overall pick two years ago, but thus far his production has been underwhelming. Lingering foot injuries have hindered his development; he has never played in preseason and is out once again this year with the same foot issue. He has never meshed well with Alex Smith and the two are seldom on the same page in coverage reads. Teammates have openly challenged his commitment and effort. Still, Crabtree is a gifted physical talent and is young enough for the light bulb to flip on.
The team brought in Braylon Edwards to help ease the pressure on Crabtree as well as perhaps finding him a kindred spirit that he can relate with. Edwards at times looks like the second coming of Michael Irvin (sans cocaine and hookers), a glue-handed downfield target with great size and body control that can also get open across the intermediate middle. But that Braylon Edwards only shows up about once every six quarters; the rest of the time he is the picture of lack of concentration, plagued by ugly drops, lazy routes, and misanthropic attitude. It will be very interesting to see how Crabtree and Edwards get along, and also how they work with the embattled Smith as their quarterback. Both have been known to show up their QBs when times are tough. If it clicks, the Niners have an excellent 1-2 punch at wideout, but you w would be wise to be skeptical.
Sure-handed Josh Morgan returns, ostensibly as the possession receiver. Morgan has great size and strength but does not always get separation from coverage. Last year he showed better ability to run after the catch, a welcome development. He is also an excellent blocker and gives full effort on every snap. Morgan is sort of the antithesis of Ted Ginn Jr., the thin, blazing speedster that has little trouble getting behind the defense but a lot of trouble tracking the ball. He still offers more value as a return man, though his speed does keep the safety on his side honest, which greatly helps the tight ends. Both guys are in contract years, which tends to produce a spike in ability. Bet on Morgan to have the better year.
Those tight ends have been very productive. Vernon Davis is a physical marvel that finally learned how to play football after about four years in the league. In the last two seasons Davis has been one of the best all-around tight ends in the league. He has great speed and size to stretch the seam and handle physical coverage. Always a tenacious blocker, his attention to detail on his routes and securing the ball has allowed Davis to thrive. Delanie Walker is a very good #2 tight end. With the presence of Edwards, his role could diminish, which would be a shame because Walker has great hands and is a solid threat after the catch. He is not a great blocker but is capable enough for the Niners to run a two-tight set and still threaten to run or pass.
It is hard to see anyone else on the roster catching more than five balls. Rookie Ronald Johnson has the best chance to do that, as he has experience playing both in the slot and outside. Nate Byham is the third tight end and is strictly a short-yardage blocker. He could lose his job to rookie Konrad Reuland, who came along with Harbaugh from Stanford.
OL: On paper, this unit is the best line the Niners have trotted out in a long time. That presumes LT Joe Staley comes back at full strength from injuries that have ended each of the last two seasons prematurely. Staley shattered his ankle last year, which could be a problematic injury for a tackle that relies so much on quickness with his feet. He is country strong but does not have great base strength, so any lingering issues with his ankle would downgrade the optimism here. He is popular with his teammates and the new coaches.
Last year the team started two rookie first round picks up front. Left guard Mike Iupati came with the reputation of being a devastating run blocker, and the Idaho product largely lived up to the billing. His pass protection skills are still very much a work in progress, but he works hard and showed gradual improvement. Anthony Davis started all 16 games at right tackle and fared about how you expect a rookie--solid at times, tentative and slow to react at other times. He is very light on his feet for a big man and showed real aptitude at run blocking on the second level. He must learn to set up in pass protection quicker and anticipate better, both of which typically improve with experience. Some questioned taking two linemen in the first round, but the early results are encouraging. Avoiding sophomore slumps and injuries will be critical.
The Niners dipped into the free agent pool and upgraded at center, replacing David Baas with former Saint Jonathan Goodwin. Not that Baas was bad, but Goodwin is a better pass protection anchor and is used to setting the kind of pace that Coach Harbaugh likes to run. His run blocking is serviceable, but he was sandwiched between two outstanding guards in New Orleans and it will be interesting to see how he fares with a 2nd year player on one side and a big question mark on the other.
That question mark is right guard, where Chilo Rachal has been largely egregious the last couple of seasons. He was a favorite of deposed coach Mike Singletary, who kept him in the lineup despite Rachal obviously being overmatched and not appearing to care too much about it. Just when he strings together some nice plays--and he has done so, particularly as a mauling run blocker--he forgets the snap count or goes at about 40% effort for a series. This year he will have to earn his starting role ahead of 5th round pick Daniel Kilgore and 7th round pick Mike Person. Both are small-school projects that probably are not ready for prime time, which means dependable backup Tony Wragge could find himself starting. One to watch: goliath reserve tackle Alex Boone, once a potential 1st round talent waylaid by personal demons. His head is on straight now and he could emerge as a great find.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 6th
Passing: 24th
3rd Down: 17th
Scoring: 16th
DL: Justin Smith is the centerpiece up front, coming off his second Pro Bowl season with San Francisco. His 8.5 sacks from the right end position in a 3-4 is a major asset, but he just might be better against the run. He has the full arsenal of pass rush moves and is very adept at getting off blocks to make plays. He will have to remain in top form, because solid NT Aubrayo Franklin left via free agency in a bit of a surprise. Isaac Sopoaga slides inside from left end to take his spot, and he has the bulk to handle it. He does not have the lateral agility of Franklin or nose for the ball, however. New Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio tends to use his noses more as anchors and blocker occupiers than playmakers, so the Niners should be okay. It would help if Ray McDonald can handle the move from situational rusher to full-time starter on the left side. McDonald was very good at generating QB pressure, not so much at actually recording a sack or stopping the run.
The rest of the rotation is a big question mark. Ricky Jean Francois brought a little juice last season and will be counted upon to get into the backfield in pass rush situations. He is a DE/DT tweener, with the size of a tackle but the skill set of an end. For some reason the Niners found it prudent to deploy him as a nose tackle, where his inability to anchor was a problem but his quickness inside an asset. If they find the right place for him, the LSU product could blossom into a Jay Ratliff-type pocket raider. Everyone else is a rookie, and the crowd will be sorted out in camp battles amongst Sealver Siliga, Ian Williams, Brian Bulcke, and Demarcus Dobbs, with second-year plugger Will Tukuafu also trying to make the roster. There is some potential here, but the inexperience is glaring and only Smith is any sort of a difference maker. Dobbs has impressed in camp and could be a real pleasant surprise down the road.
LB: It is impossible to overstate the awesomeness of Patrick Willis. If he played in the AFC East or NFC East media havens, people would tattoo his likeness on their necks and it would not seem outrageous, given his incredible all-around ability. For my money he is the best linebacker in the game, certainly the best interior backer. He can do it all: cover, blitz, destroy runners, force fumbles, chase down receivers. Blessed with incredible instincts and exceptional closing speed, Willis is a game-changing force.
The Niners are hopeful that their gamble to not bring back Takeo Spikes as the other inside backer does not bite them. Spikes is ancient for a LB at 35, but he was still an effective run stuffer and a great communicator. Navorro Bowman enters his second season as the heir apparent. He played better late in his rookie season and has a similar thumper mentality, though he is not as rocked up as Spikes. The biggest area for improvement is at playing in space; Bowman looked solid when filling a hole or chasing the ball, but when asked to sit in a zone or read/react, he was tentative and tepid. The team brought in former Ram (and 49ers draft pick) Larry Grant as insurance, and he is not a bad choice for a 3rd ILB.
The outside backers have been a thorn in the side for a long time. To try and remedy that, San Francisco spent their 1st round pick on Aldon Smith, a tremendous physical specimen that lived in Big 12 backfields during his brief Missouri career. Some of that brevity was because he left school after two season, but a more troubling reason is that he suffered a broken leg that cut short his 2010. He looks fully recovered, but he sorely lacks experience and now must convert from end to outside backer. I like Smith in this defense but I will like him a lot more in another year or two, once he learns to use more than just his speed and length to attack the quarterback. He probably will not start but should see ample time in nickel packages as a pass rush specialist. Niners fans are praying he fulfills on his promise more than the departed Manny Lawson ever did.
Holding down the fort until Smith is ready falls to Parys Haralson and Ahmad Brooks. Haralson has never emerged as the pass rushing threat they hoped he would become, but he plays the run reasonably well. He should benefit from the coaching changes on the defensive side of the ball, sort of a change of scenery without having to move on his part. Brooks is highly talented but extremely volatile and inconsistent. He wears his emotions on his sleeves and is too easily taken off his game, dwelling on mental mistakes and biting on trash talk bait. When properly focused Brooks is a very good blitzer with exceptional closing burst, and like Haralson, the change in coaching culture could really benefit him. If he falters, veteran Antwan Applewhite came from San Diego to provide veteran depth across the board. He can play any LB spot and showed glimpses of being a playmaker a year ago, forcing two fumbles and chasing down three sacks in reserve duty. The Niners will happily take that production again.
Secondary: Major changes abound on the back end. Nate Clements is out, Carlos Rogers is in as the top corner. It is an interesting free agency swap. Rogers represents an upgrade in coverage before the ball is in the air, where he is one of the best in the league most of the time. He has good instincts and body positioning, but the Redskins had issues with his atrocious hands and occasional lapses. Clements never lived up to the fat contract he got from the Niners, but he was very good against the run and did create turnovers. Rogers is not afraid to hit, so he should be fine. He has also shown he can blitz, which provides more options to the defense.
Shawntae Spencer returns at the other CB position. The veteran remains a solid performer, nothing great but generally not the problem that led to opponents having the 6th best QB rating against them. Spencer does not have great speed and does not make a lot of plays on the ball, yet he understands his assignments and provides decent leadership. He fares better in nickel packages, where he normally matches up against the slower outside receivers. The problem is that the nickel back position and beyond has been a chasm. Tarell Brown has some talent but does not always play to it. Brown hesitates too often, not trusting his eyes, and he does not have the speed or quickness to compensate. The battle for the #4 and #5 spots are open camp warfare. Rookie 3rd rounder Chris Culliver will likely start the season as the dime back, but if he plays the run like he did at South Carolina he could seize the slot nickel role. He has decent potential but needs to clean up his footwork. Scrappy Philip Adams hopes to build on a rookie season where he was not lost in coverage, but must first show he is all the way back from a nasty ankle injury.
The other big change is as strong safety, where Donte Whitner comes from Buffalo and should make immediate improvement over Reggie Smith and Taylor Mays. Whitner is a big-time thumper despite being undersized, and he is also very good at covering tight ends and backs coming out into routes. He will be responsible for setting up the secondary, something that was a major problem in San Francisco last year. Whitner should help stabilize an inconsistent but talented group even though he should not approach his 132 tackle mark of a year ago in Buffalo. Dashon Goldson apparently has the other starting spot nailed down again, but those nails are more like brads. He struggled more than expected in coverage and played without confidence or urgency. With less responsibility on his mind, he could flourish in the new defense. Veteran Madieu Williams was brought in to compete as well, though his best play is behind him.
Reggie Smith and Taylor Mays were both substandard in their safety roles last year. Smith is a hybrid corner/safety that has trouble figuring out which he should be, though his cover skills make him a good potential fit in the dime package. Mays will be lucky to make the roster just one year after being a celebrated 2nd round pick, a development that does not surprise this draftnik in the least. Mays is a phenomenal physical specimen with absolutely zero football instincts or aptitude.
*Literally 20 minutes after I finished writing this, Mays was traded to the Bengals for an undisclosed draft pick. So there...
Special Teams: Punter Andy Lee continues to be one of the busiest men ever at his position. Last season his gross and net average went down a bit, but he remains one of the best punters in the league. David Akers brings years of experience and reliability from Philly to the Bay Area as the new kicker. He should represent an upgrade over the tenuous troika of Joe Nedney, Jeff Reed, and Shane Andrus of a year ago. Ted Ginn remains one of the better return men in the league, and he adds value by being equally competent at both punt and kick returns. The coverage units will have some changes, but Mays, Walker, and Ginn are all sound in that department. The team is hopeful Lee will get less work, and that Ginn can tilt the field enough to steal an extra FG or two every game. Both are eminently possible.
Coaching: This is not something I address with every team, but I think the coaching change here is as important as anything else this team has, or has not, done. I will be blunt: deposed coach Mike Singletary was awful, a huge mistake beyond Gob Bluth proportions. I have talked to two different players that each independently told me Singletary was a complete joke as coach, with no attention to detail or any concept of player development. He often overrode his assistants when they tried to implement wrinkles or use failures as teaching moments, and his insistence on forcing the clearly overmatched Taylor Mays and Chilo Rachal into the lineup damaged the spirit to win.
All that is thankfully gone, and new head man Jim Harbaugh has already earned the respect and trust of the players, particularly the offense. Harbaugh is noted for being patient and as a good instructor, two things this franchise sorely needs. If anyone can salvage the career of Alex Smith, it is Harbaugh. Still, almost the entire staff has turned over and the abbreviated offseason has hindered progress on radical change. I like the moves, but the payoff might take longer than Niners fans want it to.
Forecast: A year ago the Niners were a trendy pick to win not just the NFC West but challenge for a Super Bowl appearance. As I predicted, that was guffaw worthy. Now the expectations are saner, and San Francisco just might live up to them. I like the offensive weaponry, albeit tenuously with Crabtree and Edwards both being unpredictable. I like the defensive back eight more than most observers. But the schedule is a toughie, and the Niners drew most of their easier opponents (WAS, CIN) as cross-country road games and the tougher opponents (PIT, PHI, TB, DET) at home. With no standout team in the NFC West, eight wins could very well win the division, but I fail to see that many wins here unless Harbaugh works magic with Alex Smith and the lines dramatically and unexpectedly improve. San Francisco finishes 5-11 in 2011.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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