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| Jeff Risdon. 19th August, 2011 - 8:09 pm
 2010 Record: 12-4
Point Differential: +143
Turnover Margin: +17
Sack Differential: +5
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 11th
Passing: 14th
3rd Down: 6th
Scoring: 12th
QB: The play of Ben Roethlisberger is not always pretty, but few QBs have ever been more effective at leading a team to victory. His two Super Bowl wins and proven clutch ability stand above his occasional bad judgment, both on and off the field. Big Ben has great size and strength, enabling him to see the whole field and escape would-be sacks that would leave many QBs pancaked to the turf. He is unparalleled at keeping plays alive and his eyes down the field, which makes him especially troublesome on 3rd down. Though he does get sacked quite a bit and will cough up the ball a few times, the Pittsburgh offense is designed to take advantage of what Big Ben does well.
He is a lightning rod for his off field proclivities, but Big Ben appears to have matured after his 4-game suspension and public lynching last year. Still, he is one misstep away from being cast aside and the Steelers would take a major hit in his absence. The primary backup is the statue of Byron Leftwich, he of the plodding gait and exaggerated windup. Leftwich appeared in only one game, mop up duty against the woebegone Browns in the finale. The team is hopeful that agile youngster Dennis Dixon usurps that role, but Dixon has had serious trouble staying healthy. Some of that stems from his happy feet, as he mistakenly believes he can outrun the defense and gets sacked more than once every 10 attempts. What is left of Charlie Batch is still clinging to a roster spot, though he is kept around more for his leadership than anything he can still do on the field.
RB: Although the prevailing wisdom around the league steaming towards the "backfield by committee" plan at running back, the Steelers remain stalwarts of the feature back concept. That feature back is Rashard Mendenhall, who touched the ball over 420 times in 2010 if you add in the playoffs. That falls deep into the well-chronicled (and debatable) Curse of Overuse; very few players that receive over 400 combined touches in a season come close to being as productive the following year. The team is optimistic that because Mendenhall is still quite young (24) he has plenty of gas in the tank to handle over 320 carries again. Mendenhall is undeniably talented, a decisive slasher with quick feet in traffic. He also has good hands and is sound in pass protection.
The primary backup runner looks to be Isaac Redman, a thumper who averaged almost 5 yards per carry as an undrafted free agent last year. That sort of productivity should merit more reps than the 55 touches he got a year ago, though his pass protection must improve. Mewelde Moore is a Mike Tomlin favorite and a prototypical 3rd down back. Nearly 40% of his touches in Pittsburgh have been receptions, which gives an idea of how the team deploys him. Rookie 7th rounder Baron Batch has some giddy-up and could threaten to work his way into the mix, most likely at the expense of disappointing Jonathan Dwyer.
WR/TE: This is a very young and speedy group, save greybeard dancing star Hines Ward. Fellow starter Mike Wallace emerged as one of the top deep threats in the league in his second year, finishing second in yards per reception (21.0) and converting a very impressive 48 of his 60 receptions for first downs. Ten of those went for touchdowns. Wallace has worked hard at improving his release off the line, and he changes gears incredibly effectively to create space for himself.
Ward continues to do all the dirty work underneath, but his production fell off considerably a year ago. He remains one of the best blocking wideouts in league history, but he no longer has the lateral quickness to get away from the coverage. With a difficult offseason that included a humiliating arrest and surgery on his thumb, Ward could be on the precipice of the end of the line. Or he could harness all the adversity and come back with a strong rebound season of 80 catches, 980 yards, and 7 TDs. Which Ward shows up is likely the difference between struggling to make the playoffs or hosting a game after a first-round bye.
Young speedsters Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders both figure more prominently in their second seasons. Brown finished the season strong, though he has too much value as a return specialist to see his role in the offense expanded too much. Sanders also became more integral as last season played out. The two are basically the same player, and that interchangeability allows the Steelers some leverage in how to best deploy them.
This is likely the last chance for disappointing former 2nd round pick Limas Sweed to make an impact. He has great size that the team otherwise lacks, but injuries and unreliable hands have put his neck firmly on the chopping block. If he washes out, expect Arnaz Battle or Tyler Grisham to fill the #5 receiver role. Battle is a strong special teams player, which could play in his favor.
At tight end, Heath Miller is a reliable yeoman that knows the system and has earned the trust of Roethlisberger. He is not a great downfield threat but has slippery speed in the seam, and he is a tough tackle in the open field. Miller is a capable blocker. Rookie Weslye Saunders figures to win the #2 tight end job provided he can keep his volatile personality in check. He has the talent of a 2nd round pick but went undrafted thanks to numerous on and off field problems. If he can keep his head on straight, the Steelers have a real steal on their hands, one that can definitely help in the red zone and allow more jumbo packages.
OL: Want to know how bad the Steelers were at tackle last year? Both starters, Max Starks and Flozell Adams, remain street free agents despite a plethora of teams needing help at tackle. That the Steelers accomplished as much as they did with such inferior tackle play says a lot about the strength around the rest of the team.
One of the biggest strengths is in the middle of the line, where rookie center Maurkice Pouncey made the Pro Bowl before getting hurt in the playoffs. Pouncey is a fierce competitor but also a master technician. Expect many more Pro Bowls in his future, and his presence in the middle is a major stabilizing force in a sea of change around him.
To that point, every other line position is unsettled to various extents. Chris Kemoeatu will be the left guard, but he is a good candidate to begin the season on PUP with a lingering knee issue that cut short his 2010. He is the best run blocker on the team and arguably the league, a bulldozer of ferocity. Alas, pass protection is not a strong suit and he gets flagged for holding more than most. If Doug Legursky shows he can handle himself as a run blocker, his pass blocking skills could keep him starting at one guard spot. Legursky played very well in the absence of Pouncey and has the ability to play any of the three interior positions. Ramon Foster is in the mix to start at right guard too, though the long-speculated relocation of Willie Colon to right guard is a possibility as well. Some of that depends on how the tackle situation sorts out.
After two weeks of camp, the starting tackles were Colon and Marcus Gilbert. Colon was the swing tackle last year after starting for several seasons and has received more playing time than most #3 tackles, but it is important to note that last season he could not beat out two guys that nobody wants. He is better on the right side. One team observer told me the team is very hopeful that rookie 2nd rounder Marcus Gilbert seizes the left tackle job ahead of Jonathan Scott, who took over when Max Starks got hurt a year ago. Gilbert has tremendous size and flashed legit starting potential at Florida, but had many concentration lapses and has battled conditioning issues. He looked good early in camp and should see the bulk of 1st team snaps if he recovers quickly from a hamstring injury. Colon must hold off two Scotts, Jonathan and Chris, to start on the right side. Rookie Keith Williams has impressed early in camp and could factor in somewhere too. Then there are still whispers that deposed RG Trai Essex could return as well. All the uncertainty means the Steelers will almost certainly rank near the bottom in sacks allowed and spotty downfield run blocking. Again.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 1st
Passing: 12th
3rd Down: 3rd
Scoring: 1st
DL: The starting threesome remains very good, but they are getting collectively long in the teeth. Nose tackle Casey Hampton is 33 and started to really show it last season. He remains one of the best immovable object types in the league, and he still has the hand quickness to get off the double-team block and bag a few tackles. But the initial bull rush ability is diminished, and he rarely ventures beyond a 3-yard radius from the point of the snap. The ends, Brett Keisel and Aaron Smith, are also in their 30s and showing signs of slowing down. Keisel gained notoriety for his beard and his dominance in the playoff game against the Jets, offsetting what was otherwise an injury-plagued, pedestrian season. His best attribute remains his length, which he uses quite well to disrupt passing lanes and extending the edge with his strong extended arms. Smith has missed 20 games the past two seasons and will likely cede a majority of the snaps to either Ziggy Hood or Cameron Heyward. The grizzled Smith still has value if he can remain healthy, and his rip move is still a work of brutal art.
Hood and Heyward represent the first round picks of 2009 and 2011 respectively and will be the future of the D-line. After struggling with the strength and complexities of the NFL game, Hood finally showed real extended glimpses of why he was a first-round pick late last season. Cat-quick and filling out his arsenal of moves, Hood is more of a penetrator than the prototypical 3-4 end, but his playing time increased as he learned to play the run and not try to make every snap a highlight. Heyward is an immediate fan favorite (his late father Craig was a Pitt icon) with more power and snarl than Hood. He must prove he goes all out on every play, but he and Hood present Lebeau with more potent pass rush ability up front, as if opposing O-lines needed more to worry about...
Chris Hoke saw more time as the reserve nose tackle, and the veteran is a solid rotational player. Nick Eason provides functional depth. They are both on the wrong side of 30, so do not be surprised if the Steelers look long and hard for more youthful, less expensive depth up front.
LB: This is the unquestioned strength of the team, as the Steelers have almost inarguably the top starting foursome in the league. Most of the focus goes to the pass rushing proclivity of the outside backers, but what makes this unit special is how they also excel against the run.
James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley are a fantastic pairing at OLB. Harrison is notorious for his fine-garnering blows and flippant attitude, but he is perhaps the most feared defensive player in the league. He is a bundle of tightly-wound hostile power, and he uses his short stature to his advantage by consistently getting excellent leverage. His strength allows him to get off blockers and bull rush, which sets up his up-and-under move. Getting off blocks quickly also makes him a demon against the run. Harrison plays out on the edge, but the Steelers have learned to embrace his recalcitrance and deal with his frequent penalties.
Woodley signed a rich new deal which rewards his terrorizing of opposing quarterbacks the past couple seasons. Woodley has bagged double digit sacks in each of his three seasons, and ranks third in total QB sacks/pressures over that time frame (Harrison ranks 5th). He is consistent, durable, and relentless. With two Pro Bowl outside backers, the Steelers put a great deal of pressure on opposing blocking schemes.
The inside guys are not on the elite tier, but Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior are a very effective combo. Farrior is the prototypical savvy veteran who knows the complex scheme of Defensive Coordinator Dick Lebeau inside and out. Even though he is now 36 and not quite as lithe, Farrior still notches over 100 tackles every year and almost never gets caught out of position. He has also mentored Timmons nicely. Timmons is smaller than the normal 3-4 inside linebacker, but he is tough and very quick to close on the ball. He really blossomed a year ago, bagging over 130 tackles and showing sideline to sideline range. Timmons has the versatility to blitz or drop into coverage, though his best attribute is his slamming the door on the run quickly.
The depth at backer starts with veteran Larry Foote inside. Humbled by a terrible season in his hometown of Detroit after leaving the Steelers, Foote limped back to Pittsburgh and was not the same force anymore. He is still a quality contributor that knows the system well, but he is best served in the reserve role--primarily replacing Farrior in short-yardage packages. The team is very high on 2nd year player Jason Worilds, whom they strongly believe is the next in their long line of pass rushing outside backers. He notched two sacks in very limited time in his rookie year, and most Steeler defenders make a giant leap from year one to year two. It would be surprising if he does not get more extensive playing time this year and record at least 5 sacks. GM Kevin Colbert used his 5th round pick on another pass rushing specialist, Chris Carter. He will make his impact more on special teams. Stevenson Sylvester and Mario Harvey fill out the depth chart. Keep an eye on Harvey, one of the most coveted undrafted free agents of this season.
Secondary: When Troy Polamalu is healthy, this unit is very good, but when he is sidelined the dropoff is steep. The imminent free agency departure of Ike Taylor will not help matters, though the Steelers are probably not in as dire straits as their critics (or more pessimistic fans) would have you believe.
Polamalu is perhaps the greatest wild card of any defensive hand that can be dealt. He frequently improvises and seldom miscalculates, and the payoff is often immense. He is as disruptive of a force as any safety that has played the game, able to stonewall a running back the millisecond he gets the ball or fly across the field on a dead sprint to break up or even intercept a quick bubble screen. A hard hitter with very good range and an innate sense of timing, Polamalu gives quarterbacks fits with his unpredictability.
That comes at a price, however. It takes a very steady hand with a lot of experience to play alongside Polamalu, and even then he frequently leaves his secondary mates far too exposed. Fellow starting safety Ryan Clark is a solid, freakishly consistent player; he has finished the last three seasons with 88, 89, and 90 tackles and 6, 8, and 7 passes defended. Heady and aware enough to realize his role, Clark is more invaluable than his numbers indicate. He epitomizes the term "safety" and is a sound foil for the gambling Polamalu.
The starting corners are Bryant McFadden and William Gay, assuming Gay returns as a free agent. McFadden returned after a one-year self-imposed exile to Arizona, and both he and the Steelers are better for it. He is not a shutdown corner, but he perfectly understands what is asked of him in the LeBeau scheme. A good tackler with nice size and a strong football IQ, McFadden is one of the best in the league at steering the receiver towards his help. He is also a good blitzer, and the team used him in that capacity more frequently last season. Gay is more passive, both in coverage and at attacking the ball, and because of that he generally matches up against the smaller outside receiver. He is probably one spot too high on the depth chart, but with the pass rush of Pittsburgh, he is not a real liability.
To address the depth issues, the Steelers spent two mid-round draft picks on corners Curtis Brown and Cortez Allen. Neither will be forced into action but could earn significant playing time if merited. Brown is a sound off-man cover guy with good instincts but inconsistent footwork and a tentative demeanor. Allen has good size but is making the jump from The Citadel and needs both seasoning and bulk. Expect Brown to push undersized Anthony Madison for the nickel job, with the better tackler getting the nod. The team is in fine shape depth-wise at safety with Ryan Mundy and Will Allen, both of whom know the system well.
Special Teams: There are some questions here. Shawn Suisham did a fine job as a fill-in during the regular season but had a crucial miss in the Super Bowl. He has been on three teams in two seasons for a reason, some of that a function of missing 5 FGs in the final two minutes of halves since 2008. Big legged Swayze Waters will challenge him in camp. There is also a camp battle at punter, where oft-injured behemoth (for a punter) Daniel Sepulveda is attempting to regain his job after another ACL tear that cut short his 2010. Jeremy Kapinos does not have anywhere close to the leg strength of Sepulveda but he showed he can place the ball nicely during his replacement stint.
At least Pittsburgh found answers in the return game, where both Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown were marked improvements over recent kick returners. Punt returns remain a bugaboo, as the Steelers ranked dead last in net punt return average. The coverage units improved, enough that Pittsburgh held opponents to their worst average starting field position in 6 years.
Forecast: The defending AFC Champs brought almost everyone back for another go around, and anything less than a return trip to the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. After a tumultuous last 12 months with a lot of off-field controversy, this team is ready to take out its frustration on other teams. They have an elite playmaking QB and an elite playmaking defense. That is a tough combination to beat, even though the offensive line is subpar and the team continues to commit too many penalties. Their schedule sets up for a strong late-season run, allowing them to recover from what I anticipate will be an uneven start with three tough road games in their first four. Pittsburgh steamrolls to an 11-5 finish, an AFC North title and will strongly contend for another AFC championship.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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