 |
| NFL Columns |
|
| Search |
|
|
|
|
| Draft Sim ID |
|
| Jeff Risdon. 18th August, 2011 - 2:55 pm
 2010 Record: 13-3
Point Differential: +126
Turnover Margin: +14
Sack Differential: +8
Offense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 12th
Passing: 15th
3rd Down: 3rd
Scoring: 5th
QB: Matt Ryan has developed into one of the best leaders in the game, an unflappable package of intelligence, confidence, and precision.
The biggest knock on Ryan is his reluctance to challenge defenses deep. Some of that is a chicken/egg argument with a lack of downfield playmakers, but no question Ryan checks out of the deeper throws quickly in favor of lower-risk/lower-reward shorter throws. That works over the course of a 16-game regular season but proved a major liability in the playoff loss. Getting Julio Jones as a better weapon should help, but it still on Ryan to decide to stick with the longer routes and deliver the ball at the right time. There are some who question the arm strength of Ryan down the field, but I am not in that camp. His deeper throws do lack the pinpoint accuracy of the shorter ones, but that is true of 75% of the QBs in the league.
The primary backup is Chris Redman, who has carved a nice niche for himself in that support role here. He has a similar skillset to Ryan, just not as dynamic or precise. Third-stringer JP Wilson fits much the same mold as well, bringing continuity to the table should something happen to Ryan. Wilson is more likely to eventually take over if something happens with Ryan, but Redman can capably steer the ship for a few weeks in the near term.
RB: You know what you are getting with Michael Turner as your running back--vicious between-the-tackles power, exceptional vision, good cutting ability for a big man, and a guy that drives the pile and always falls forward with his tree-trunk thighs. He has just enough giddy-up to break a run outside for a 20-30 yarder, though that is not his forte any longer. Few runners find the hole more reliably, and Turner has quick enough feet to slip into small creases despite his size. He has piled up a lot of yards and a lot of wear and tear over the last few seasons, so a decline could very well be on the way. How precipitous that decline will be is a good question, one that the Falcons desperately do not want to have answered in 2011.
Primary backup Jerrious Norwood took his fragile self to St. Louis, but Jason Snelling returns to help Turner carry the load. Snelling brings good versatility and is a real asset in the passing game, though Ryan uses him for nothing other than a safety valve as a receiver. He lacks breakaway speed but has carved out a useful role for a 7th round pick a few years back. Mighty mite rookie Jacquizz Rodgers will take over the Norwood role. Do not mistake his diminutive height and label him a scatback though; he is a powerful grinder with a thick lower body that relies more on balance than speed and quickness. He is also a very good receiver and should seamlessly fill the third down back role, or allow some mixing and matching with Snelling for different situations.
Ovie Mughelli returns as the fullback, and he is a solid all-around player. Though he has just 50 total touches the last three seasons, Mughelli has some ability with the ball in his hands. His forte is lead blocking, though, and he and Turner have good chemistry and similar vision in that regard. Gartrell Johnson should stick for another season as the utility back.
WR/TE: Roddy White has become one of the most reliable, best overall receivers in the league. He has gelled with Matt Ryan into a very prolific, potent combination that can attack all over the field.
But too often White was a one-man show, so the team gave away a boatload of high draft picks to acquire Julio Jones with the #6 overall pick. Jones was the unquestioned star of the Combine, and he was a proven big-play guy at Alabama. A great package of size, strength, and great hands, Jones received NFL-style coaching from Nick Saban and went against some of the best corners in the nation with very strong results. Yet I am not quite sure how he will fit opposite White. Even though Jones timed in the 4.3s in Indy, he never played that fast on the field. Injuries have been a frequent issue, as he was always nursing one wound or another that kept him from being at his very best. He also had some ugly drops, often in critical situations. If that sounds like a younger Roddy White, you are not alone in that thinking. It took White a couple of seasons--and a very good QB--to unleash his inner beast, and the Falcons have to hope that the waiting time with Jones is brief.
The rest of the receiving corps essentially all slide down one spot on the depth chart. The inconsistent Michael Jenkins loses his outside starting job (again), but he has had some success as the biggest slot receiver in the league. Where most slot players are shifty and quick, Jenkins is long, takes huge steps, and is not blessed with quick-twitch muscle. His departure to Minnesota was not unexpected. Harry Douglas is more of the prototypical slot guy, but he has really struggled to stay on the field. Eric Weems is even more of the prototypical shifty slot guy, but thus far his impact has been almost entirely on special teams, where he is one of the best in the league. He will be given the chance to earn more offensive reps as long as he can stay productive as a return man. The Brian Finneran era appears finally over after a long and injury-plagued run, as Kerry Meier is poised to take over the role of brittle #4 possession receiver.
Tony Gonzalez threatened retirement should the lockout drag on, but all signs indicate he will be back for at least one more year. The future Hall of Famer is the most prolific pass catching TE in league history, and he remains effective as he enters his 16th season. He does not stretch the field like his KC glory days, but Gonzo still has superglue for hands and is the master of body control. He has never been known as a blocker, though he is not a detriment in that regard. Justin Peelle is more of a blocker, but he has the ability to snag a few throws in his own right. At some point the team must get younger at the position, as Gonzalez is 35, Peelle 32. Michael Palmer is the third tight end right now, should the team elect to keep a 3rd. This is a spot for a young free agent to potentially stick.
OL: Much offseason consternation focused on the potential for great change up front, as three starters were free agents from a line where all five starters made 16 starts together. Ascertaining who would stay and who would go was a fashionable parlor game amongst Falcons faithful, but the general consensus is that right guard Harvey Dahl was the keeper, while left guard Justin Blalock and right tackle Tyson Clabo would be allowed to pursue more lucrative deals elsewhere.
That wound up being backwards. The team kept Blalock and Clabo, while Dahl took his talents to St. Louis. Clabo is big, strong, and tough, an intimidating physical presence that is not afraid to mix it up. He is the weak link in pass protection, but his sheer length often gives Ryan enough time to get rid of the ball without getting whacked. Blalock has developed into a decent starter with an emerging nasty streak, a welcome development that augmented his value to the Falcons.
Replacing Dahl will not be easy. A camp battle between Michael Johnson and Garrett Reynolds will settle the position. The third rounder from Alabama in 2010, Johnson impressed coaches and teammates in practice last year. He is taller than most guards at 6-foot-6 and must learn to keep his center of gravity low, but he has strong potential. Reynolds also impressed coaches with his nastiness and run blocking acumen.
Sam Baker is a decent left tackle who has consistently improved his footwork. He is not Pro Bowl material, but Baker fits the blocking scheme nicely and has earned the trust of Ryan on the blind side. Todd McClure is one of the better centers of the NFL and has been for several years now. Though he is getting long in the tooth, he is widely respected for his toughness and quick recognition of defensive attacks. Joe Hawley and rookie Andrew Jackson provide young and extremely green depth inside, so keeping the starters healthy once again is imperative. Will Svitek will stick as a run-blocking specialist who is often deployed as a tight end as part of the short yardage packages. This group did a very good job of keeping Matt Ryan comfortable a year ago and that should carry over to 2011.
Defense:
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 10th
Passing: 22nd
3rd Down: 24th
Scoring: 5th
DL: John Abraham continues to be one of the most consistently disruptive pass rushers in the game. Despite playing limited snaps and battling creaky knees, Abraham judiciously utilizes his energy. His 13 sacks a year ago were a nice rebound season after a disappointing 2009. Abraham is now 33, and depending on him chalking up another double-digit sack season with his age and injury profile is quite risky. That is not to say Abraham cannot still be a very effective rusher, but he needs some more consistent help from the other side.
To that end, the Falcons let disappointing Jamaal Anderson depart and replaced him with former Viking Ray Edwards. As part of a deep rotation in Minnesota, Edwards notched 8 sacks a year ago and is comfortable attacking on the left side. He is a high-effort aggressor with good feet and a nice closing burst. Teams had success running right at him, but the Falcons want him to focus on getting to the quarterback. Kroy Biermann flashes good pass rushing moves at times, but his inconsistency has been a problem. He will still get a lot of reps, primarily filling in for Abraham in short-yardage situations, and he is a sound run defender when he initiates the action. Getting off blocks is not his strong suit. Chauncey Davis performs a similar role and has a little more sand in the pants, but he has just two sacks in the last two seasons. One to watch: rookie Cliff Matthews, a 7th round greenhorn with excellent athleticism. He should supplant Lawrence Sidbury in the role of developmental outside rusher.
There is a lot riding on the development of some recent draft picks inside. Peria Jerry has largely been a disappointment in his first two seasons, failing to provide much interior surge that the team was expecting when it made him a first round pick. He lost his starting gig a year ago to Jordan Babineaux, a try-hard overachiever with a knack for good timing. Babineaux always seems to wind up near the action. Neither he nor Jerry is particularly strong against the run, and they need to do a better job of keeping blockers tied up and off the linebackers. Corey Peters was solid at nose tackle in his rookie season and had his best games down the stretch (albeit against the woeful Panthers). Expect a lot of rotation amongst the threesome to keep fresh legs on the field, but as a group they must hold up against the run better and take some of the pass rushing pressure off the outside ends. Vance Walker did not embarrass himself as an injury replacement a year ago and figures to be the #4 tackle.
LB: All four regulars from last year return to a unit that is built around speed and reliability but lacks a dynamic playmaker. Curtis Lofton is the gem of the group at middle linebacker, a tackling machine with great instincts. Lofton is coming off surgery on both knees this offseason, but he has showed no signs of diminished ability over the summer. He took on more leadership during the lockout and the team could not be happier with how he has developed into a leader and Pro Bowl-caliber Mike backer.
The outside linebackers had a rotational system last season, forged in part by injuries. This year, expect the role of 2nd year player Sean Weatherspoon to increase on the strong side after an uneven rookie season where he missed several games with ankle and knee issues. Spoon is a bundle of fast-twitch muscle that talks nonstop but has the ability to back it up. He needs to do that more consistently, particularly in nickel packages where his primary responsibility is coverage. The talent and instincts are there, and the coaches expect him to make a big leap forward in his sophomore campaign. Stephen Nicholas returns after a failed foray into free agency, a reflection on his just another guy status he has earned with mediocre play. Veteran Mike Peterson is a better run defender but does not have the range of Nicholas. His role could diminish to short-yardage linebacker as he is now 35 and has lost a step outside the box. Coy Wire is a competent backup that has more value on special teams. The team values his ability to play any linebacker spot, and he appreciates his role. Rookie Akeem Dent will be given ample opportunity to earn reps, though he figures to spend his first season in an apprentice role behind fellow thumper Lofton.
Secondary: After years of instability the Falcons finally found a satisfying 1-2 cornerback duo in Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes. Robinson was a prized free agent from the Texans a year ago, and he did not disappoint. He is aggressive and physical despite being only averaged size, and he has excellent footwork and balance. He can also really lay the lumber, as his knockout blow of Desean Jackson proved. Robinson has the confidence and maturity to handle tough assignments, and he seldom got beat deep, something that was a problem for him in Houston.
The presence of Robinson forced teams to throw at Grimes, and Brent Grimes responded with a breakout season. Though he is also just of average stature, Grimes has great athleticism and timing while the ball is in the air. He has learned the art of steering receivers with good body positioning, able to disrupt timing without being overtly physical. Keeping him on the left side and Robinson on the right side seemed to help the overall communication and cohesion in the secondary, and they should build upon that with another strong campaign.
Christopher Owens was up-and-down in the slot, but the Falcons failed to find anyone else to challenge him. Second-year Domonique Franks got scant playing time as a rookie and is built more as a boundary corner and not an inside/slot guy. Nobody else in camp has ever played a down in the NFL, so expect to see teams use a lot of 3 and 4 wide packages to try and exploit the Falcons beyond the very good starting tandem.
At safety, Atlanta is in very good shape. William Moore is an emerging stud, albeit one you probably have not heard much about. He is a big-time hitter that showed excellent range and a keen sense of timing in his second season. Deep coverage help is not his forte, but he generally covers the short range well. His 5 INTs were a pleasant surprise, as one of the pre-draft knocks on him was poor hands. He pairs with Thom DeCoud, another rangy hitter. DeCoud could make more plays on the ball, but he specializes in stopping yards after catch once the receiver gets the ball. The two communicate well and have the ability to play both safety spots. The depth is not great behind them, with Shann Schillinger more of a special teams ace and Rafael Bush being an UDFA that spent last year on the practice squad.
Special Teams: Matt Bryant was strong as the kicker last year, showing he still has plenty of leg despite being one of the oldest players in the league. He is one of the most respected kickers in the league. Bryant ranked 4th in touchbacks on kickoffs, an underappreciated accomplishment. Rookie Matt Bosher will replace Michael Koenen as the punter. The team hopes Bosher can do a better job preventing returns than Koenen, who defected to the rival Bucs. Eric Weems made the Pro Bowl as a return man thanks to his three TDs on returns. He is also one of the better coverage men in the league. The team has generally solid coverage units but did struggle some in punt return.
Forecast: Last season was a tremendous breakthrough, earning the #1 seed of the NFC and showing consistently strong performances on both sides of the ball. But the playoff embarrassment highlighted a lack of dynamic playmakers. The team made a huge gamble on Julio Jones, one that impacts depth and puts more pressure on the team to win right away. The talent is there, but it will not be easy. The NFC South is arguably the strongest division in the NFL, and the schedule brings the tough NFC North and road trips to Houston, Indianapolis, and Chicago--all offenses that have the ability to outscore the Falcons. I see some clouds in the sky over Atlanta; not enough to wash out the playoff promise, but enough that another 13-win season and NFC South title are probably both far-fetched. The Falcons finish 10-6 and settle for a Wild Card, but as the past few seasons have proven, once you are in the playoffs any team can win any game.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
|
