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| Jeff Risdon. 16th August, 2011 - 12:46 pm
 2010 Record: 4-12
Point Differential: -73
Turnover Margin: -8
Sack Differential: -1
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 27th
Passing: 13th
3rd Down: 17th
Scoring: 22nd
QB: Apparently the Carson Palmer-era is over. Team President Mike Brown is hellbent on calling the trade me or I will retire bluff from Palmer, even though his departure leaves the team perilously thin and inexperienced at the most important position in the game. Palmer has been a barely average quarterback for the last few years, but other teams respected his arm and his poise, and he held the fragile blend of divas and egos together moderately well.
That task now falls to rookie Andy Dalton. In theory, Dalton is an exceptional fit for new Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden and his version of the West Coast offense. He is hyper accurate on shorter throws, sees the field well, makes quick decisions, and has enough mobility to buy time and find throwing lanes. Yet questions abounded regarding the arm strength of Dalton, un-athletic physique, and ability to handle blitzes. The scouting community was firmly divided on Dalton coming out of TCU. I fall into the believer camp, but that does not mean I am sold on him as the starting quarterback for the 2011 Bengals.
In case Dalton falters, the team signed feisty journeyman Bruce Gradkowski, last with the Raiders. The Toledo grad is undersized and lacks accuracy (career 53%), but players love his heart and respect his work ethic, and he has been surprisingly successful at producing some unexpected wins. He should provide solid guidance for Dalton and can adequately serve as a short-term fill-in.
The only other QB is the younger brother of Carson Palmer -- Jordan Palmer. Aside from looking almost exactly alike, Jordan has little else that resembles Carson as a quarterback. It has long been speculated that the Bengals merely kept him around to keep his brother company. That understates the ability of Jordan, but he is nothing more than a journeyman backup. The signing of Gradkowski signals the end of the Dan Lefevour experiment.
RB: Here is a strong barometer to tell whether the Bengals are going to compete in the AFC North: the status of Cedric Benson. If the team brings back the bruising chain-mover (Benson is a free agent), it is a sign that the team believes it can win. If he walks--particularly if the contract is not outlandish--it should be read as a sure sign the team is in cost-cutting, all-out lose mode.
Bernard Scott enters his third season as the alleged lightning to the thunder of Benson. It has not always worked that way, though the play of Scott improved with more reps last season. If he takes over the lead back role, Scott could be a definite fantasy sleeper and a breakout player. He possesses great straight-line speed, and the reason for his relative improvement was his upgraded ability to read his blocks and make more decisive cuts off them. He is not built for more than about 15 carries a game. Untested Cedric Peerman will get a crack. I liked him coming out of Virginia, but he has just one carry and one reception in two seasons across four different rosters. Injury-plagued Brian Leonard has never really developed the way anyone hoped. He is a short-yardage specialist with good hands, but he is an easy tackle with poor speed and little creativity. Keep an eye on rookie 7th rounder Jay Finley, who has a similar skill set to Scott but is a better receiver at the same point.
*Benson re-signed with the team, which brings stability and real teeth to the rushing offense.
Cincinnati is expected to make more use of the fullback position under new OC Jay Gruden. Fui Vakapuna and Chris Pressley hold the roster spots right now, with Pressley likely to earn the starting nod. Both are of the sledgehammer lead blocker variety and will likely not combine for more than 5 carries all season. Pressley has a little bit of wiggle after the catch, which gives him the upper hand. Expect a more traditional West Coast-style fullback to be brought in and challenge for the lead role.
WR/TE: Top draft pick AJ Green immediately becomes the focal point, which represents a major sea change for this franchise. Long, strong, and very sure-handed, Green has incredible potential as both a playmaker and a volume-heavy receiver. He represents a major changing of the guard from the TOcho show last year, as Green is a humble, grounded talent that prefers to let his play do his talking for him. Green was also a respected blocker at Georgia, which can only help the running game here.
Terrell Owens will not be back, and the late June revelation that he is coming off ACL surgery nails that coffin shut. Chad Ochocinco is also long gone, resurfacing with the Patriots. That is music to the ears of many teammates, who personally like the flamboyant receiver but have greatly tired of his antics and the decline in his production. To think that the team rejected a trade offer of two first-round picks for Ocho just two years ago, and now shows how far #85 has fallen.
Complementing Green will be second-year slot man Jordan Shipley, a true revelation as a rookie. His 60 receptions were a pleasant surprise, and he showed a nice slipperiness with the ball in his hands. The other outside spot comes down to a camp battle between fourth-year talents Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson. Caldwell finished last season on a high note, bagging 15 receptions over the final three games in the absence of Owens. He is more physical that Simpson and has a longer track record, though Simpson has better speed and finished with a flourish in his own right--a team-record 13 catches in the finale. If both can play at close to that level--and there are indications they can indeed--the TOcho show will not be missed in the least.
Jermaine Gresham proved this draftnik wrong by showing no ill effects from a nasty knee injury, pulling down 52 receptions and 4 touchdowns. He is the best pass-catching tight end in Cincinnati since Bob Trumpy, but he is also a solid blocker that continually improved in that regard. Expect big things for the big man from Oklahoma in 2011 and beyond. Veteran Reggie Kelly enters his 14th season in The Jungle as a blocking specialist who can reliably catch about a ball a game. If the team elects to keep a 3rd tight end, a camp battle ensues between Chase Coffman and Garrett Mills. The career of Coffman has been derailed, and likely ended before it ever began, by injuries, while Mills is more of a hybrid TE/FB that has washed off several rosters.
OL: LT Andrew Whitworth has emerged as one of the top all-around tackles in the league. He is not an elite pass protector but seldom gets beat bad enough that the quarterback has no chance. The country-strong behemoth is perhaps the best run-blocking left tackle in the game; no one else is as good at flattening targets at the second level. Whitworth is also a team leader and is not afraid to set people straight, which is more integral in Cincinnati than most places.
The rest of the line was a major disappointment in 2010, and the outlook for 2011 is not very promising. Right tackle was a black hole, as Dennis Roland badly regressed and Andre Smith remains a big fat bust after his first two injury-plagued campaigns. Smith will get the first crack at the starting spot, but he must show up in shape and show more dedication to his craft. Anthony Collins is a better pass blocker than either Roland or Smith, but he is a liability as a run blocker and has never endeared himself to the coaches.
The three starters inside return intact, for now. Nate Livings has a tenuous grasp on the left guard spot after a miserable 2010 where he was too often a half-count late and struggled moving his feet. Kyle Cook fell back a bit at center after a strong debut in 2009. He is a good bet to bounce back, particularly since it is a contract year. Bobbie Williams slowed considerably in 2010 and at his age (35 in Sept.), whatever has been lost is not coming back. To that end, the team spent a 4th round pick on Clint Boling. He will likely spend his rookie year as the sixth lineman, where his ability to play both guard and tackle are better utilized. The rest of the depth chart is full of journeymen with little upside, which makes for functional depth but fails to impress in terms of long-term solutions. That is an issue as all three returning starters inside are in the last year of their contracts. Only former Eagle Max Jean Gilles offers real hope for the future.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 19th
Passing: 14th
3rd Down: 13th
Scoring: 24th
DL: This is one of the more underrated groups in the league, led by Domata Peko and his flame-red afro ponytail. Peko is one of the best run stuffers in the NFL. Blessed with great base strength and very quick hands, Peko locates the ball quickly and has the strength to shed the block and make the play. He pairs with a rotation of Pat Sims and Geno Atkins inside. Atkins blossomed late in his rookie year as a strong interior pass rusher, and he figures to get more playing time if he can keep bringing the pressure. Sims had a solid season but is not as quick. He is a case of a tweener that has found success; built like a nose tackle at nearly 330 pounds, Atkins plays the 3-technique because he is light on his feet and does not have great base strength. They make for a very effective interior rotation. Veteran Tank Johnson has quietly been a positive mentoring influence, a surprising turn of affairs for a guy once imprisoned for having the weapons cache of a Somali warlord. Unfortunately, Tank has not contributed much on the field and his role could be usurped by young Clinton McDonald, who played well in limited duty last year.
The ends are very young but have very high potential, some of which shone brightly the second half of 2010. Rookie Carlos Dunlap bagged 9.5 sacks in the final 8 games, nailing the team record for sacks by a rookie and displaying a nice barrage of moves. At 6-foot-6 and nearly 280 pounds, Dunlap has great size and strength but also possesses the nifty footwork to be a very effective edge rusher. He sets up his moves nicely and has the innate ability to improvise, which keeps offensive tackles guessing. The former Gator has a promising future as a double-digit sack master, as long as he keeps his head on straight and shows even token improvement against the run, an issue that kept him inactive for the first few weeks last year. Another youngster, Michael Johnson, also showed some pass rushing juice in his second season. Johnson improved his play in space in 2010, which could facilitate a move to linebacker. He is a natural fit as a hybrid edge player, which gives the defense some real options. Some of the potential move to LB is based on how well veteran Robert Geathers performs. Geathers is a solid all-around edge player but has not been a consistent pass rusher. In fact, he did very little last season and could be on the way out. Likewise, Antwan Odom is expected to be phased out unless he shows a quick return to pre-injury form. After starting 2009 on fire, Odom got hurt and has been invisible since. The coaches like his attitude and drive, but if the results remain inferior he will end up elsewhere. Frostee Rucker needs to show a full recovery and legit production to stick as well, though his ability to slide inside probably makes him a safer bet to make the final roster.
LB: 2011 looks to be a critical season for the two USC products that start here. Keith Rivers has been good, not great on the weak side, while Rey Maualuga continues to be maddeningly inconsistent on the strong side. Both were first round picks, both have very strong potential, yet both have a lot to prove after their first handful of seasons.
Rivers has had several injuries that have hindered his production. He has great athleticism and good instincts, but it just has not translated into anything more than passable play in his first three seasons. The team would like him to be more physical and make more impact plays, particularly at stopping the run closer to, or behind, the line of scrimmage. Rivers has done a good job dropping in coverage, but the team needs more than two sacks, two INTs, and one forced fumble in three seasons out of their 2008 first rounder.
Maualuga does not have any problem being physical, and the move into the middle should benefit both he and the defense overall. One of the most feared headhunters in the game, Maualuga brings the pain...when he correctly diagnoses the play and gets to the ball, which has not happened nearly often enough over his first two seasons. He will have more freedom to roam in the middle and will not face the barrage of tight end chip blocks and coverage assignments that befuddled him on the strong side. He might not rack up as many tackles as the departed Dhani Jones, but Maualuga is more of an attacking, downhill player and that should help the run defense.
Taking over the strong side will be either free agent Manny Lawson or young Michael Johnson. Johnson was impressive down the stretch last year as he got more comfortable playing in space, and he has the height (6-foot-7) to really disrupt passing lanes. Lawson disappointed as a pass rusher in San Francisco but brings more experience and better instincts against the run than Johnson. Both can also play defensive end, though Lawson is probably too light to line up there in anything but dime packages.
Depth is strong. Thomas Howard signed as a free agent and figures to see plenty of action as a nickel backer. He has the fluidity and range of a safety and is very good in coverage when healthy, which he was not in 2010. He could threaten Rivers if he struggles. Dan Skuta makes more of a mark on special teams but looked solid in limited reps a year ago. Rookie 3rd rounder Dontay Moch has the speed of a wideout and will serve as a pass rushing specialist and special teams demon. Youngster Steven Franklin has impressed early in camp and figures to at least stick on the practice squad.
Secondary: Leon Hall has lived up to expectations as a former first round draft pick. He is aggressive, physical, and savvy in coverage. Hall is also very strong against the run, almost as if he is a safety. His four INTs led the team and he has 60 passes defended over the past 3 seasons, good for 3rd in the NFL in that period. Teams increasingly threw the other way last season, which means having a strong player on the other side is a requisite for success. With Johnathan Joseph departing via free agency, the Bengals had a big hole opposite the rock-solid Hall.
To that end the team signed another former 49er, Nate Clements. Once the free agent darling and recipient of a contract that made him the Juwan Howard of the NFL, Clements will get a fresh start in a scheme that should be very friendly to his skills. Like Hall, Clements is aggressive at the line and likes to physically mix it up with the receivers. Unlike Hall, he tends to take more chances and has trouble running with the receiver on longer routes. What makes that intriguing is that Clements has good speed, but he tends to get lazy in his technique. He is also a very strong run support corner, giving the Bengals arguably the best run defending corner duo in the league.
Morgan Trent will be the nickel back. He brings good size and tackling to the role, though he has trouble with shifty receivers inside. Adam (Pacman) Jones is back for another season and could win a more prominent role if he keeps his head on straight and shows better effort when the play is not aimed in his direction. A neck injury cut his 2010 campaign short, but he impressed enough with his newfound maturity to get another chance. A whole host of youngsters will fight it out in camp for the final 1-2 spots, with Brandon Ghee and Korey Lindsey the best of the lot. Both have legit promise but need seasoning.
Safety will start with a familiar cast, with Chris Crocker and Reggie Nelson the starters, backed up by Gibril Wilson. Crocker played well early but injured his knee mid-year, and his loss led to some scrambling that negatively impacted the entire defense. He has decent range and embraces the literal interpretation of the word safety, while also showing good timing as a blitzer. As long as his knee is fine, the Bengals are in good shape at free safety. Strong safety remains a sore point however, as Jaguars bust Reggie Nelson was largely underwhelming in the role. He did have his two best games in the season enders against San Diego and Baltimore, and the hope is that a full offseason in the system will help him blossom. Just in case, the team brought veteran Wilson back. He missed all of last season with a knee injury and has not been the same since cashing in after a great Super Bowl with the Giants a few years back. Rookie Robert Sands, aka Predator for his hair and fearsome stature (6-foot-4 and 220, massive for a safety), will get as many reps as he can earn. He is a younger version of the departed Roy Williams, a vicious hitter that is more oversized linebacker than defensive back.
Special Teams: Kicker Mike Nugent and punter Kevin Huber are both local boys done well. Nugent is returning from a knee injury but was fairly solid before getting hurt. His range on field goals is not the greatest but he is a good kickoff man. Huber is decidedly average as a punter and will need a better season of pinning the ball deep if he wishes to stick around. The return units feature Bernard Scott and Quan Cosby as returners but they are nondescript. Coverage units were shaky a year ago, in part due to massive roster churning to replace injured players.
Forecast: Despite the struggles a year ago and the unceremonious departure of Carson Palmer, there is still enough talent here to threaten a playoff berth. And the early schedule is highly favorable; they only play one team with a winning record in 2010 before Week 10. With all the young players and the fickle way this franchise operates, winning early is critical. The first two games are winnable roadies at Cleveland and Denver, both of which have new coaches and are undergoing radical defensive remodels. If the Bengals open 2-0, expect confidence to brew and this team to quietly challenge for a Wild Card with 9 or 10 wins. But if those first two games are sloppy or losses, disaster looms in the form of another 4-12 campaign. I will give Marvin Lewis and his solid staff the benefit of the doubt and predict a 7-9 finish thanks to an improved defense.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
