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| Jeff Risdon. 4th August, 2011 - 5:46 pm
 2010 Record:
Point Differential: Negative 7
Turnover Margin: Plus 4
Sack Differential: Plus 17
Offense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 23rd
Passing: 12th
3rd Down: 11th
Scoring: 15th
QB: The multi-million dollar question is Can Matt Stafford stay healthy? In his first two seasons the 2009 #1 overall draft pick has flashed very promising potential but has spent a majority of the time out with shoulder injuries. If he fully recovers, and my spies tell me his arm looked stronger than ever in early June, the Lions have themselves a talented young leader that is hungry to show what he can do. Few QBs have the ability Stafford possesses to spot the ball all over the field, his toughness, or his killer instinct. On the flip side, he has proven careless with the ball and often lacks touch on shorter throws. He will likely need time to sync the timing with his receivers. But if he can pick up where he left off last season--with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio and almost 60% completion rate--Stafford will jump into the upper echelon of NFL signal callers. The ability to stay healthy for a full season is a major question, however.
Fortunately for Detroit, the Lions employ Shaun Hill as the primary backup. Hill played reasonably well in the absence of Stafford last season before going down with a wrist injury himself. He tends to hold the ball too long and does not always read the linebacker dropping into zone, but Hill proved a reliable chain-mover with a little more accuracy than Stafford. The team is comfortable and confident with him in the #2 role.
Drew Stanton showed marked improvement with his increased opportunity a year ago, and he somewhat unexpectedly re-signed with the Lions after being unable to find a better shot at starting elsewhere. He just might be the best 3rd string QB in the league.
RB: Much has been invested here, but how that investment pays off remains an open question. The Lions traded up to get Jahvid Best in the first round a year ago, and despite some electrifying moments his rookie season was not to that standard. Turf toe injuries and a frustrating (for this Lions fan) propensity to get too close to his blockers before making his cut blunted his effectiveness. He has outstanding acceleration and can embarrass defenders in space; the trick is to get him into space more frequently.
Not satisfied to go forward with only Best and Maurice Morris, the Lions aggressively traded up and drafted Mikel Leshoure from Illinois in the 2nd round. Leshoure is a big, powerful leg churner in the Larry Johnson/Cedric Benson mold. He makes quick, precise cuts and has the acceleration and balance to gobble up yardage quickly. He and Best complement one another very well.. on paper. How the two youngsters work together and fare behind this line in this offense remains to be seen. The talent is certainly there for a dynamic 1-2 running game punch, and both are competent receivers as well.
Jerome Felton returns as the lead blocking FB, a job he embraces and which he is pretty darn good at. He doubles as the short-yardage back and is moderately successful at picking up 3rd and short conversions, but do not expect more than 25 touches on the season. The aforementioned Morris returns as the #3 back. The consummate professional found tougher sledding on the whole last year, though he did chip in with 5 touchdowns on less than 100 carries. Teams can, and do, fare a lot worse than Mo Morris as their third running back. Speedy Aaron Brown gets one more chance as a pseudo third-down back/return man. One of the fastest players in the league, unfortunately Brown has zero lateral agility and poor vision, not to mention bad hands. Ian Johnson of Boise State, he of the sideline proposal fame, is his competition.
WR/TE: Calvin Johnson took the next step towards fulfilling his superstar status in 2010, turning in a dominant season despite the revolving door at QB and not much help from his receiving mates. His 12 touchdowns made a bold statement, but he also firmly established himself as a receiver that can do more than just go downfield. Although the Lions would like his yards per catch to get back above 15, the development of Johnson at intermediate routes and crossing the middle makes him a more complete receiver. Johnson also took better care of the ball, with fewer drops (the ridiculous nullified TD in Chicago excepted) and no lost fumbles.
This year Johnson figures to have more help. Second round pick Titus Young has the vertical speed to stretch the field and does not lack for confidence. In player-organized workouts, Young wowed his teammates and appeared to have genuine chemistry with Stafford. If he can carry that over into the regular season, this passing offense goes from decent to very good. Young humbled many a corner during Senior Bowl workouts with his speed and ability to explode out of cuts. Nate Burleson struggled early in his first season in Detroit but came on strong late. He figures to move to the slot inside Johnson and/or Young, a role to which he is better suited. Burleson does a great job setting up his moves and creating space for himself. He does lose concentration at times, but the coaches love his effort in practice and influence in the film room.
Tight end appears stacked. Brandon Pettigrew is a massive target across the middle with two of the biggest hands I have seen in a tight end. He broke out with 71 receptions last year and is a physical force, too strong for linebackers to inhibit. Pettigrew is a real load to tackle and showed definite improvement at his in-line blocking in his second season. He pairs with shifty Tony Scheffler, a seam stretcher in theory that was more of an underneath safety valve in practice a year ago. Two years ago in Denver, Scheffler averaged over 16 yards per catch, making a killing flexed out and getting behind the LBs and inside the deep help. Detroit would like to see more of that, but he did not appear to have the same burst off the line and averaged just over 8 yards per catch in his first year in the Motor City. Because he is a negligible blocker, his role could diminish.
The depth at wideout comes in the form of mighty mite Stefan Logan, all 5-foot-6 and 166 pounds of him. Logan is primarily the return specialist--and an excellent one--but the team is trying to work him into more 4-wide sets. Free agent Rashied Davis brings straight-line speed and experience to the #4 role and should spell the end of waste-of-a-pick Derrick Williams. 2010 Mr. Irrelevant Tim Toone and his white-man dreadlocks showed enough promise to bring back for another shot too. Rookie free agent Preston Dial could make the team as a TE/FB hybrid, and they have a couple other intriguing rookie UDFAs in camp. One thing about Jim Schwartz--he is not averse to giving undrafted guys from small schools chances. That is potentially good news for the Dominique Barnes and Marcus Harris of the world.
OL: For the first time in years, there is stability along the offensive line. Should RT Gosder Cherilus return from November knee surgery, the starting 5 will look the same in 2011 as it did a year ago.
Notice that I said stability with no mention of effectiveness. It might actually be a bad thing. Left tackle Jeff Backus is 33 and has never had the kick step to handle speed on the edge; Stafford got flattened and injured on a play where Julius Peppers was around Backus before he could even react. Not as awful as Lions fans paint him, Backus has been incredibly durable and remains one of the better run blocking tackles in the league. I have maintained for years that he belongs on the right side, but the team has never found, nor really tried to find, a suitable replacement at left tackle. That durability will be tested early, as Backus suffered a pectoral injury over the summer that clouds his September availability.
Either Cherilus or Jason Fox will man the right side. Former first rounder Cherilus upped his game in 2010, but coming off such recent knee surgery makes counting on him tenuous at best. Fox is still a project entering his second season and was better-suited to play the left side coming out of Miami. Colts castoff Tony Ugoh is in camp and will be given a chance to redeem himself, but it is overly optimistic to expect the lightweight to do any better than win the swing backup job. Corey Hilliard was not awful in relief a year ago and factors in the mix, though both he and Ugoh figure to be fighting for the same roster spot.
Guard play was improved in 2010, and the combination of Rob Sims and Stephen Peterman is a solid interior foundation. Sims was a real find as a free agent, bringing stronger pass protection and tenacity to the left side. Peterman is combative and moves well, though he does struggle against bull rushers in the gaps (see Green Bay or Cleveland last year). With veteran stalwart Dominic Raiola entrenched at center, the interior line is in good enough hands. Depth is a concern, with only journeyman Donald Thomas and undersized pivot Dylan Gandy currently on the roster. 7th round pick Johnny Culbreath is a developmental project that is at least a year away from threatening any active roster.
Defense
2010 Ranks
Rushing: 24th
Passing: 16th
3rd Down: 19th
Scoring: 19th
DL: This is unquestionably the strength of the team, and the front-line talent and strong depth here makes the Detroit Lions the owners of the best defensive line in the NFL. That is important, because the defense of Jim Schwartz is built around having a dominant front four. Well, he has one. The best player is Ndamukong Suh, the runaway Rookie of the Year in 2010 and perhaps the most impactful defensive rookie since Lawrence Taylor. Suh made not just the Pro Bowl, but the All Pro team, meaning as a rookie he was one of the top three players at his position. Freakishly strong, relentlessly aggressive, and playing with a nasty disposition, Suh is a major force and a burgeoning star in the league.
He pairs inside with Corey Williams, a pretty talented guy in his own right. Williams has a dangerous rip move and very good feet for a big man. He locates the ball quickly and has enough skill with his hands to get free from the blocker. The third guy in the rotation is massive Sammie Hill, a good run stuffer that moves laterally pretty well. Hill would start for most teams (and could be dealt) but here he will likely be lucky to get about 25% of the snaps. That is because the team used the 13th overall draft pick on Nick Fairley, the quick, strong, and occasionally dirty gap penetrator from Auburn. Fairley is an upfield attacker with reckless abandon, or at least he was in his final year at Auburn; prior to that he was a marginal NFL prospect noted more for attitude issues. It is a big gamble to bring him in, particularly since the team already had great depth and major holes elsewhere (OL and LB).
How that gamble pays off depends in no small part on the leadership of right defensive end Kyle VandenBosch, the greybeard of the line and one of the most respected players in the league. Coach Schwartz recruited him to come from Tennessee and establish the desired tone. VandenBosch did just that, while proving he still has more than a little gas left in the tank. He and Suh were flat-out unstoppable together at times, running stunts, twists, and flopping positions pre-snap. VandenBosch is coming of a neck injury but has been a full participant in early camp activities and should be fine.
Cliff Avril has been the other starting DE and brings great speed off the edge. He bagged 9 sacks a year ago, but also looked very good at dropping into coverage. That has garnered some interest from 30-front teams in the free agent, and as of press time Avril remains unsigned. Getting him back is key, because there is a dropoff in overall ability from Avril to Lawrence Jackson, who would be next in line to take over. LoJack (love the nickname!) came from Seattle and impressively notched 6 sacks in limited reps, seemingly resurrecting what had been a bummer of a career for the 2008 first rounder. Jackson learned to set up his moves and countermoves better, but also appeared a little more physically fit. He can match the pressure from Avril on the QB but is an inferior run defender and does not drop into space well at all. There is talk of using Fairley at end in nickel packages as well, which seems more likely with the free agent departure of Turk McBride. Second year man Willie Young will be given a chance to earn a larger role as well. The depth and rapid development along the line is a credit to young line coach Kris Kocurek.
LB: Last season the Lions had consistently inadequate LB play, a progenitor for some major changes. Only middle man Deandre Levy returns, as the two outside starters from a year ago, Julian Peterson and Zack Follett, are distant and ugly memories.
To put it simply, the unit can only improve. Follett was dreadful before a neck injury forced him out, while Peterson was the classic case of a veteran trying to milk one more quality season out of a body that had none left. Free agency has brought two new starters, both of whom are significant upgrades. Justin Durant comes from Jacksonville and adds a needed dose of speed, while Stephen Tulloch rejoins his former Tennessee DC in Jim Schwartz and brings over 160 tackles a year ago with him. Tulloch is widely considered one of the most versatile LBs in the game, a great tackler with excellent range that can cover very well. The biggest knocks are that he stands a hair under 6-feet tall, and he does not produce many turnovers or tackles for loss. Durant bounced in and out of the starting lineup and coaching favor in Jacksonville, with the main problem being his lack of positional responsibility against the run.
Still, the key to the unit is Levy, who has shown legit promise as an above-average starter interspersed with a tendency to try and do too much and wind up doing too little. The hope is that surrounding him with better talent will allow Levy to focus more narrowly and not get overwhelmed. He does have very good instincts and finishes plays well. One area where Levy could really improve is his blitzing, though the Lions do not ask their LBs to do that much. That is a good thing as the starting trio has combined for exactly 5 sacks over the past three seasons--four by Tulloch.
The top reserve figures to be Bobby Carpenter, who played better than expected after being signed off the scrap heap of the Dolphins. A former first rounder that has never found a role in 3-4 defenses, the Lions hope Carpenter can provide quality play across the positions in their 3-man corps. He is a free agent, however, and is not certain to return. The coaches seem to genuinely like Ashlee Palmer, all 220 pounds of him and even though he has scant experience. Draft pick Doug Hogue is a long-term project that should only appear on special teams in 2011. Isaiah Ekejiuba is a special teams specialist, nothing more.
Secondary: There was finally positive progress in the back four a year ago after years of lousy ineptitude, though there remains a long way to go before this unit inspires real confidence. The leader of the pack is Louis Delmas at free safety. Delmas had an outstanding rookie campaign in 2009 but fell off last year, in part due to a plethora of minor injuries. He is a major league headhunter that plays downhill very well. In this defense, his primary function is to make plays on the ball, both in the air and attacking ball carriers, hopefully forcing turnovers and setting an aggressive, physical tone. For this unit to take a step forward, the playmaking Delmas of two years ago must return. The team loves his leadership and mentality, and he did show improvement at setting up the back end of the defense last year.
To that end, the team brought in former Falcon Erik Coleman, who fell out of favor in Atlanta after a couple of very productive years. Just 29, Coleman is a good candidate for a strong bounce back season and is a respected veteran leader and mentor. He will split the strong safety role with young Amari Spievey, still going through some growing pains as he converts from corner. The 2010 3rd round pick fared well in covering tight ends and closing on the ball, but often looked completely lost against spread formations and handling speed in the slot. Look for Spievey to start and play against tighter sets, while Coleman will see more action in passing downs. John Wendling backs up Delmas but is on the roster more for his very good special teams play. Young Randy Phillips is a developmental sleeper to watch.
At corner, the team finally found a couple of keepers after years of scouring the waiver wires and discard piles. Chris Houston arrived from Atlanta with the knocks of being soft and undersized, but he played very well in his first season in Detroit. He showed better confidence, stemming from being a better schematic fit in the more aggressive zone of Schwartz. Houston re-signed and will be counted on to prove 2010 was no fluke, though the team would like more plays on the ball. Detroit also struck paydirt with Alphonso Smith, inexplicably cut from Denver just a year after being a high 2nd round pick. Smith is also undersized but he is a dynamic playmaker that attacks the football in the air. His 5 INTs and 9 PDs in just 12 games were a very welcome addition. The problem is that he takes far too many chances and often winds up embarrassingly out of the picture. When the free safety is not great at over-the-top coverage, and Delmas most certainly is not, that leads to serious problems and way too many big plays in the wrong direction. Smith figures to be the slot nickel man, assuming he recovers from a mid-summer broken foot. That should mitigate some of his deficiencies.
The other starter figures to be former Browns starter Eric Wright, another attempt by GM Martin Mayhew to turn the garbage of another team into treasure. Wright was a pretty effective and consistent starter his first three seasons in Cleveland, but had a monumental falling off a year ago. Some of that was schematic, some of that was the presence of the excellent Joe Haden on the other side of the field forcing teams to throw at Wright more, and some of it was Wright simply not showing the confidence and toughness he had earlier in his career. Much like Smith, Wright is the kind of corner that attacks the ball in the air and likes to bait the quarterback. Teams caught on and threw double moves and multiple receiver patterns at him. He must show better judgment and an increased acumen at run defense to provide an upgrade in Detroit, but the potential is certainly there. If he falters, veteran Nathan Vasher--a very similar style player--also returns after recapturing his stride a bit in limited duty a year ago.
Special Teams: Could the Jason Hanson era really be over? The Lions kicker since 1992, Hanson missed time with injury a year ago and the team was pleased with Dave Rayner as a fill-in, enough that they brought him back for another go around. Hanson will not give up without a fight, and this is perhaps the most heated battle in camp. Both are fine kickers and the Lions are in good hands regardless of who wins. Punter Nick Harris is also above-average, ranking near the top in punts downed inside the 20 and continuing to directionally place the ball nicely.
Stefan Logan emerged as a very good return specialist, leading the NFL in total return yardage. Consistency was a hallmark, as Logan had just 8 of his 54 kickoff returns go for less than 25 yards. Logan also shined on coverage units and will be expected to do so again, as the roster turnover hit those units hard. Long snapper Don Muhlbach is one of the best in the business and has remarkable consistency with his snap location.
Forecast
Detroit enters 2011 with positive momentum and genuine optimism for the first time in years, having won their final 4 games in 2010 and stockpiling impressive talent all over the roster. The pieces are in place for the Lions to end their prolonged playoff drought. For that to happen, a few things need to take place. Foremost, Matt Stafford must stay healthy and deliver on the franchise QB promise he has only hinted at thus far. The offensive line must do their part in making that happen and also help the hit-and-miss running game. The defensive back seven must hold their own behind what should be the best front four in the league.
I think the Lions will have their best season in years, but I still do not think it will be enough to end the playoff drought. The core talent is still very young and needs to learn how to win. With a few breaks this team can definitely win 10 games and finish 2nd in the NFC North, but as a lifelong Lions fan I will believe that when I see it. To quote legendary Pistons coach Chuck Daly, A pessimist is an optimist with experience. Or, a native Clevelander that somehow chose the Lions as my team some 30 years ago. The Lions finish 8-8 in 2011.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
