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| Andrew Perna. 21st January, 2011 - 8:01 pm
 The January 17, 2011 edition of Sports Illustrated featured an enjoyable article by Ben Reiter entitled ?The Old Men And The D.? In the piece, Reiter lauds Ravens safety Ed Reed, a seven-time Pro Bowl pick who is still a dominant safety at the age of 32.
Reiter points out that Reed?s ?61 combined regular-season and postseason interceptions rank him 12th all-time. He has played three fewer seasons than anyone else in the top 18.?
The line led me to wonder ? how high up the all-time interception list can Reed climb?
To level the playing field, I?m not going to take playoff interceptions into account, which are more a result of team success than individual talent. Reed has seven interceptions in nine postseason games. If Baltimore wasn?t a winning team, Reed wouldn?t have the opportunity to make such plays.
In terms of regular-season interceptions, Reed is tied for 19th with Eric Allen, Willie Brown and Darrell Green. For what it?s worth, Brown and Green are both in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Reed has missed 10 games over the last two seasons, but he?s still hauled in 11 interceptions. In his nine-year career, Reed has averaged six picks per season. With 54 thus far, he would likely have to play five more seasons to approach Paul Krause?s record total of 81 interceptions.
While it wouldn?t be shocking to see a warrior like Reed play another five seasons, it?s hard to imagine that his interception rate would remain stable despite his league-leading total in just ten games this season.
To get a better grasp of how productive Reed might be on the down slope of his career, I?ve analyzed how his fellow leaders played past the age of 32.
The 21 players that rank higher than Reed on the all-time list, including the three that are tied with 54 interceptions, averaged 12.3 interceptions past the age of 32. Those players averaged 3.2 interceptions per season past Reed?s current age.
Of those 21 players, two (Bobby Boyd and Lem Barney) didn?t play into their mid-thirties. Those that played a majority of their career in the NFL?s modern era averaged 3.3 interceptions per season past age 32 and thirteen overall. There really isn?t much of a distinction between defensive backs across the history of the league.
As defenses get faster, though, we may start to see interception totals decrease at a steeper rate towards the end of careers. Speed is usually one of the first things to go and there are a percentage of interceptions that have more to do with speed and agility than timing, positioning and football intelligence.
Darren Sharper is the only player near the top of the all-time interception list who is not only still active, but also has played a majority of his career in the 21st century. He has three inches and a handful of pounds on Reed and the two have vastly different styles.
Sharper had nine interceptions for the Saints in 2009, but zero in eight games this season and just one in 16 games for the Vikings two seasons ago. He has just 10 interceptions in his last three seasons, the first three years following his 32nd birthday.
If you want a greater frame of reference among active players, here is the Top 10:
1. Sharper (35), 63
2. Reed (32), 54
3. Champ Bailey (32), 48
4. Charles Woodson (34), 47
5. Asante Samuel (29), 42
6. Ronde Barber (35), 40
7. Brian Dawkins (37), 37
8. Nate Clements (31), 33
9. DeAngelo Hall (27), 32
10. Ray Lewis (35), 30
Keep your eye on Samuel and Hall, who are the only players among the leaders under the age of 30. Both cornerbacks have a chance to surpass Reed?s total of 54 interceptions when they blow out 32 candles.
That brings me back to my initial question ? where will Reed finish on the all-time interception list?
Another three seasons could easily vault Reed into the top-five. If he continues to average six interceptions, he?d have 72 after the 2013 season when he?ll be 35 years old. That would put him behind only Krause (1964-79) and Emlen Tunnell (1948-61).
There is one huge factor that will determine where Reed finishes on this list. He?s a sure-fire Hall of Famer, but neck and hip injuries in recent seasons, thanks to his crushing playing style, may cut his career short.
Reed contemplated retirement following the 2009 season, but returned to average nearly an interception per game. It?s hard to imagine him hanging up his helmet as long as teammate Ray Lewis is active and he?s signed through the 2012 season.
?He?s told me - I don?t think he?d mind me saying this - he wants to play football,? Ravens coach John Harbaugh said following Baltimore?s loss to Pittsburgh last weekend.
?Ed's got a chance this offseason to be healthier than he?s ever been going into a season ? I don?t want to speak for him. He?ll have to tell you all that, but I think Ed?s going to have a great year next year.?
As long as Ed Reed is playing, he?ll be intercepting passes.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
