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| Daniel Leroux. 12th October, 2010 - 2:56 pm
 One of the challenging aspects of running an NFL team is, unlike the NBA and MLB, game-changing personnel moves are exceedingly rare during the regular season itself. Some of this is due to the nature of bonuses and how trades affect teams financially while another major component is the short trade window between the start of the season and the deadline (especially compared with the aforementioned sports).
As such, teams that need instant improvement almost exclusively must do so from within.
Luckily, this year?s San Francisco 49ers have a ton of room to do so even after their dreadful 0-5 start. It seems worthwhile to start with the positive first: this team absolutely still has a chance to win the division.
Granted, much of that is by virtue of the NFC West ranking amongst the most rank divisions in the history of American professional sports, but that?s the way it goes sometimes. The fact of the matter remains that Arizona, Seattle, and St. Louis are all intensely flawed teams and San Francisco retains enough games to control the division even by virtue of in-division wins alone.
Furthermore, there absolutely is some merit behind Coach Singletary?s claim that ?the best team that we?ve played so far is the San Francisco 49ers.?
The biggest culprit here has been turnovers. San Francisco has not won the turnover differential battle in a single game and has lost it in all but one. The offense has coughed it up a whopping fifteen times in just five games. Losing games is nearly inevitable with that kind of play. In Sunday?s game, Alex Smith had a few bad turnovers (including a terrible fumble which directly led to a QB), yet it was Frank Gore?s fumbles that felt like the bigger culprit.
?I feel like I didn?t give [Alex Smith] any help today,? said Gore. ?I feel that if I had run the ball better and didn?t make my mistakes we definitely would have had a chance to win.?
Gore is correct on both counts. Simply put, teams cannot win when their core players make mistakes with the consistency and frequency that the 49ers have thus far.
Luckily, it is nearly impossible to sustain this level of turnovers, especially with the amount of talent San Francisco has at most of the skill positions. On top of that, position groups like the offensive line should gel with time and experience- improvement from within can help there and other places as well.
However, there are two major things working against making Jed York?s bold text to Adam Shefter a reality:
1. This team is going to need to win games on the road.
2. They have major flaws that can be exploited by just about any team.
Mike Singletary took control of the franchise October 20, 2008. Since then, this team has had a record of 4-13 away from Candlestick compared to a 9-5 record at home. As stark as the numbers themselves may be, the further context that two of those four wins were against Rams teams that won a combined three games those seasons and another came against a Bills team that lost a QB during that game. This complete ineffectiveness on the road poses a problem because the Niners only have five more home games this season thanks to the non-home game in London that counts as one for San Francisco. For this team to win the division or even make a decent showing, wins against teams like Carolina and St. Louis simply must happen.
On top of that, the Niners must improve their consistency- each one of the phases of the game have had at least one pretty good game, yet they have never all come at the same time. The defense has had numerous games where they put the team in a position to have a chance while the special teams nearly gave the team a win against Atlanta. The offense has not brought it at that level, yet has moved the ball well at points.
Unfortunately, the big remaining problem is the nature of the Niners? talent. This is a team that clearly has NFL starting quality players at numerous positions all around the field. Guys like Patrick Willis, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Aubrayo Franklin are studs who are starters on damn near every team. The problem that plagues this team is that they pair units which can look horrible at times with a few players who simply are not at the same level of quality.
One of those is the quarterback. Simply put, Alex Smith is not the guy at this time. What was remarkable about Sunday is that in many ways it was Smith?s best total game of the season- he made more NFL-caliber throws than I can remember in a single game. At the game?s outset, I started an unofficial list of times Smith threw to a receiver more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage as that was a problem the past few weeks. Against Philadelphia, my tally showed Alex completing 10-14 long passes and that list did not include the last drive. Even with an interception as one of the incompletions there, that kind of performance qualifies as a success.
However, those impressive throws were juxtaposed with some absolutely terrible decisions that led to all three of San Francisco?s non-Gore turnovers against the Eagles. Smith?s two interceptions were both dubious (I still don?t have an explanation for the second since the team could have been in position for a game tying field goal if he just throws it away) and his fumble was an unmitigated disaster.
Keeping all of this in mind, the goal for the rest of the season should be for management to sort and collate the roster into those players that should be here for the next 2-4 years and those who should not. This goal in no way directly infringes on winning for as long as the division stands within grasp and must involve games and practices alike. Once the players are grouped, every single player not in the keeper group should be gone by the start of training camp next season regardless of their contract or history with the team.
The organization?s biggest flaw coming into this season was their paralyzing fear of giving Alex Smith any competition for his job, whether that be going after a higher level free agent or passing up on taking Jimmy Clausen (more of a long term QB than present one, anyway) three times. That choice put all their egg?s in Alex?s basket and makes him the best option at signal caller even after his problems. Vernon Davis said after the game that he believes in Alex- an honorable and believable sentiment, though I?m sure he would believe in a better quarterback if given the opportunity. I absolutely want David Carr to get a fair shot at some point and I am baffled by the incongruence between Singletary?s sentiment that he was open to a QB change on Sunday night then telling Smith Monday morning that he was the starter. However, it is fine for that shot to be later in the season.
Beyond the QB issue, the team needs to learn from Nate Clements? negative examples in both the Seattle and Atlanta games- do not take unnecessary risks (him trying to jump routes vs. Seattle) and get what you can without being stupid with the ball (ATL). Simple regression to the mean can carry this team close to the division if they can win a few road games, while management needs to take a good hard look at who fits their long-term vision. Takeo Spikes said that this team has to get a spark- it ?s time for someone ? anyone ? to step up and take the mantle.
Feel free to e-mail Daniel at Daniel.Leroux@realgm.com or follow him on Twitter @DannyLeroux.
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