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| Jeff Risdon. 8th September, 2010 - 7:22 pm
 2009 record: 9-7
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +1
Sack Differential: +1
Point Differential: +116
Coming In: CB Antonio Cromartie, RB Ladanian Tomlinson, WR Santonio Holmes, QB Mark Brunell, S Brodney Pool, OLB Jason Taylor, K Nick Folk , LS Tanner Purdum, P Steve Weatherford
Going Out: RB Thomas Jones, G Alan Faneca, RB Leon Washington, S Kerry Rhodes, K Jay Feely, LS James Dearth, CB Lito Sheppard
Key Rookies: CB Kyle Wilson, RB Joe McKnight
Offense
QB: Year Two of The Sanchize sees the expectations heightened for both the team and the starting quarterback. Mark Sanchez struggled quite a bit during his rookie season, throwing INTs at a near-historic rate (20 in 364 attempts, 5th highest in the last 22 years for a 14+ game starter) and having a lot of ugly misfires. Much like fellow rookie Matt Stafford, the quickness of NFL defensive backs was a startling revelation that made for some serious growing pains. In fact, Sanchez and Stafford put up remarkably similar numbers--the completion percentages, the INT and TD totals, and the yards per pass were all very close.
Here is where the point of perspective and expectations comes into play. Stafford did his damage with the moribund Lions, who were thrilled to finally have a tough leader and a quarterback with legit promise to become the franchise QB as he progresses. The Jets, of course, have visions of Super Bowl trophies dancing in their heads right now. Let?s assume that both QBs progress at the anticipated rate for first-round rookies that started at least 12 games: the completion percentage goes up about 3.5 percentage points, the TDs and INTs go from a negative ratio to even or perhaps a slight positive, and the yards per attempt jump about .25 yards. Plug those numbers in for Sanchez in 2010 and you get something like this line: 56.2% completions on about 420 attempts for just over 2800 yards, 18 TDs and 16 INTs, QB rating around 81.5. Those numbers are a lot closer to Alex Smith and slightly inferior to David Garrard. Ask any Jets fan to compare Sanchez to other QBs and you?ll get names like Aikman, Brady, and Montana, not David Garrard or Detroit-era Charlie Batch, which are what the numbers indicate he will be in 2010.
Yet there is reason for optimism with Sanchez. He has a preternatural ?coolness? to him that is a major asset. It makes him a leader without even trying, and it allows him to keep a fairly even keel and positive outlook even when he?s playing poorly. A young Joe Montana had that and look what happened with him. Sanchez entered the NFL with so little college experience that his learning curve and progression is more variable; it entirely feasible that he could make a much bigger leap forward in his second season, especially considering the pass protection he gets. He?s as big a film junkie as you?ll find in any locker room, and he appears to have a good understanding of how to apply what he sees on film to the field. Maybe he?ll even learn how to slide!
He also gets a new set of eyes as his backup, where veteran Mark Brunell takes over for Kellen Clemens. Brunell is at the very end of his long career; he?ll turn 40 after Week 1 and his body has taken a beating. He is here to provide a steadying hand and veteran mentor for Sanchez, and I believe he?ll do a great job at that. If he?s forced to play, however, the Jets are in trouble. The mobility that made him famous is all but gone, and the arm strength isn?t what it used to be. Clemens sticks as the #3, three years removed from being the toast of highly optimistic Jets fans who gushed over his arm strength and moxie before watching him pile up INTs and panic every time a pass rusher got within shouting distance.
RB: Major changes abound here. Highly productive starter Thomas Jones and proficient 3rd down back Leon Washington are both gone. Taking over the starting role is second-year power back Shonn Greene, who was the #3 RB for most of last season. Greene broke out in the playoffs, running all over the Bengals and Chargers and convincing management that he is ready to take over and let them dispatch the more expensive, more combative Jones. Greene is powerfully built but has very quick feet, which he keeps moving at all times. He can take a hit and keep the momentum going forward, and he has enough interior elusiveness to avoid the big thump. One thing he will never have is Jones? breakout speed; Greene is one of the slowest starting RBs in the league and is not much of a threat to bounce a run outside. He?s more reliant on strong blocking up front and taking the play where it?s designed, which is fine in New York as long as the stellar OL holds up. He?s also a vastly inferior receiver, as his zero receptions as a rookie reflects, and his pass protection is a downgrade as well.
LaDainian Tomlinson could no longer get the job done with San Diego, but the Jets are optimistic he can turn back the clock and provide a very effective balancing role to Greene. Frankly, I don?t see that being the case as a runner, but there are other ways in which LT can help this team. He?s still a gifted outlet receiver and pass protector. LT is widely respected for his work ethic, his locker room demeanor, and his infectious desire to win. Bringing that sort of veteran presence into this offensive locker room is a very big positive. It had better be, because as a runner LT sure looks done. The hop step no longer explodes, the second gear blew out in the middle of 2008, and his quickness is no longer special (some would say not even average). Of course, the Jets threw to their backs fewer than all but two teams a year ago, so that role isn?t real meaty.
Rookie Joe McKnight is expected to assume Washington?s role of 3rd down back, though with LT?s receiving acumen, it might be more of a shared role. At USC, McKnight showed a whole lot of outside speed and open-field shiftiness, but not a great deal of proficiency at getting to those spots. He was a tentative backfield dancer in college, trying to bounce every run outside. That can work in college where his raw speed and good balance allowed him to beat defenders to the edge, but he?ll need to develop some toughness and show a willingness to go between the tackles in the NFL or else he won?t last two years. He does have great hands and knows what to do with the ball once he catches it, which also gives him value as a return man.
Venerable Tony Richardson returns for what seems like his 25th season (16th actually) at fullback. Once upon a time, Richardson was very effective with the ball in his hands, but he has just 72 touches in the last five years and now serves almost exclusively as a pass protection rock, something he continues to do as well as any fullback in the game. Though he?s not a big-time body rocker very often, Richardson remains a very effective lead blocker as well. Sensing that the end is near, the team drafted John Conner from Kentucky to be his understudy, a move I think Jets fans will come to appreciate down the road.
WR/TE: This is one of the most intriguing receiving corps in the league. That is also not necessarily a compliment. Putting Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes together is either going to be a stroke of brilliance or an unmitigated disaster, and your guess is as good as mine as to which way it plays out. Edwards is as physically blessed as any wideout this side of Randy Moss, but his talent absolutely ends at his shoulders; his lack of concentration and apathy towards self-improvement render him one of the most frustrating players in the NFL. Expect two or three highly productive games filled with great catches and dramatic big plays sprinkled in with a dozen games of wondering where that guy went--which is basically what the Jets got from him after picking him up from Cleveland last season.
Holmes will miss the first four games, the price for off-field transgressions that ultimately led the Steelers to sever ties with the former Super Bowl MVP. He is a very effective intermediate/downfield target coming off his best season, and he?s also an exceptional blocker. How quickly he adjusts to the new environment and a new QB is an open question. He had mind-meld chemistry with Ben Roethlisberger that will be difficult to replicate, and Holmes was typically at his best when Roethlisberger was on the run, something Sanchez doesn?t do very well. Holmes is also a strange fit because he?s essentially the exact same type of receiver as Jerricho Cotchery, who is a little bigger, has better consistency with his hands, and knows the offense already. Neither one plays well from the slot, and both expect to be nothing less than 5-catch-per-game starters. Sorting that out will be a challenge for Offensive Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, especially with a young QB and a definite run-first emphasis.
Brad Smith returns as the poster child for the overhyped trend of drafting collegiate spread-option QBs and trying to convert them to NFL wideouts. He?s a raw route runner that cannot translate his quickness with the ball in his hands to running patterns without it. Smith seems like a natural for the Wildcat, but Leon Washington proved both more accurate and stronger armed in those situations in practices. His best value is lining up in the slot and then dropping into the backfield, where he is somewhat dangerous as a direct snap runner or on a quick toss or reverse. David Clowney continues to draw raves for his practice field work, but that has never translated to on-field prowess, a trait that has followed him from Virginia Tech. He at least fended off prodigal Jet Laveranues Coles, who proved that his miserable stint in Cincinnati was quite indeed the end of the line and was let go quickly in camp. He?ll sit by the phone and wait for someone above him here to get hurt.
Tight end Dustin Keller is a lot like Shonn Greene, a promising young talent that had a largely mediocre regular season but exploded in the playoffs with breakout performances that most Jets fans believe portends future stardom. As Lee Corso famously says, ?Not so fast my friend...? Big and fast with a giant catch radius, Keller is indeed evolving into a very good receiving tight end. His routes are crisper and his release cleaner, but then there?s the matter of his blocking. There?s a reason why he seldom plays when the Jets face 3rd and less than 5: he?s one of the worst blocking tight ends in the league, and that?s no small feat these days. He?s also not that great after the catch, the playoff torching of the Bengals aside. He?ll bag 50 or so catches for about 600 yards and a handful of touchdowns as Sanchez?s designated second read on pretty much every pass play. Ben Hartsock is the top blocking tight end, a notion that would have made me scoff when he first entered Ohio State but a hat the veteran wears quite well now.
OL: Four of five starters return from the unquestioned strength of the offense, and all four returnees range from above-average to dominant. The cream of the crop is center Nick Mangold, whom the Jets recently (and wisely) made the highest-paid pivot in the league. Mangold does everything exceptionally well; honestly the only minor hole in his game is the shotgun snap, but the Jets use shotgun less than any other team so it?s not much of an issue. He is the best overall center in the NFL, well on his way to a Hall of Fame career, and he is just now entering his peak years.
His draft classmate, D?Brickashaw Ferguson, isn?t quite in that elite class at left tackle but really took a step forward last year. Always blessed with great quickness and litheness for his size, D?Brick upped the power ante a year ago, showing more toughness and tenacity in both run and pass blocking. Assuming he continues that trend, he should earn a Pro Bowl berth. He is one of the best blindside pass protectors in the league, and the Jets rewarded him with a fat new contract as well. They took some flak for drafting two offensive linemen in the first round that year (2006), but it?s proven to be an amazingly successful roll of the dice.
The right side is in good shape with Damien Woody at tackle and Brandon Moore at guard. That comes with a caveat, however: Woody is on the wrong side of 30 and his foot quickness looked like it was starting to slip last year. Both right siders are better at run blocking than pass protection, and if Woody loses any more quickness his pass protection will become a problem. Moore is one of the best in the league at making effective run blocks at the second level, and his pass protection is just fine. Woody has had some fluctuations throughout his career, so his performance bears close watching, but as long as he continues to flatten defensive ends and open huge holes for Greene he?ll earn his keep.
The change comes at right guard, where Alan Faneca?s big contract proved too much for the Jets to swallow. The team drafted UMass? Vlad Ducasse in the second round with every intention of handing him the job, but he was much greener than expected (by them, not me) and the job falls to second-year player Matt Slauson. While it?s true that Faneca?s pass protection was becoming increasingly problematic, the team cannot begin to replace his run blocking--where he remained at near-elite level last year. Slauson has yet to play a regular season snap, yet the Jets are demanding he step in and provide little dropoff from a perennial Pro Bowler. The pass protection should be a wash, but don?t expect the run blocking force on the left side anymore.
Depth could be a major problem, albeit one they haven?t been faced with; every starter played almost every snap of all 16 games last year. That was the third year in a row where every projected starter failed to miss a game, a freakish run of amazing fortune that is bound to end sooner than later. Wayne Hunter has some experience as a 6th lineman and could likely fill in for Woody with little dropoff. He?s a sound run blocker that won?t get Sanchez killed. Robert Turner is the top interior reserve, even though he has played more as the 3rd tight end than at guard or center. The aforementioned Ducasse looks like a major developmental project; he?s only been playing football for a handful of years--never at guard--and it shows. He is almost completely devoid of technique. Mike Turkovich and Robby Felix are completely untested backups.
Defense
DL: The healthy return of mammoth nose tackle Kris Jenkins is the key here. Even though the defense thrived in his absence a year ago, the big veteran is a more dynamic pocket-collapsing force than Sione Pouha, who filled in for him last year and moves to right DE this year. Jenkins is now 31 and has blown out both knees, so just how much he has to offer is unknown, but I strongly suspect he?ll be a very good fit in this defense. At minimum he?s the immovable object in the middle that soaks up two blockers and frees the linebackers to get clean looks and shots. Pouha proved quite good at stuffing the run a year ago and replaces Marques Douglas, who tailed off badly as the season progressed. With Shaun Ellis on the other side, still a very capable pass rusher, the starting front is a nice package. Mike DeVito is a lunchpail-type fan favorite that is straight out of central casting for a Ryan defensive lineman: tough, tenacious, high football IQ, not very athletic. He can play either end spot, which allows Pouha to slide to the nose to spell Jenkins when needed.
The wild card here is Vernon Gholston, who flopped miserably as a pass-rushing OLB and has been moved to end. He?s at least 25 pounds underweight for the position at 260, but even skeptical team observers have commented that Gholston has handled the tougher interior combat better than expected. It?s a desperation move by the Jets to try and salvage anything from the 6th overall pick in the 2008 draft, still looking to bag his first NFL sack. Consider me cautiously optimistic that it will work in a rotational role and nothing more. Losing Ropati Pitoitua in the preseason hurts the depth but gives Gholston more of a chance. Young Jason Lamb secretly hopes it doesn?t work and he can snag that spot.
LB: This is a dynamic group of talented players that blend very nicely. The starting inside backers are David Harris and Bart Scott, and they are an awesome pair. Both can do it all--blitz, fill the holes quickly against the run, cover, get off blocks, force turnovers. Harris is the more physical backer, more apt to blow up the fullback and attack up the field. The heady Scott is better in coverage and doesn?t get to the QB as effectively when rushing. He might be the best cover LB in the league, and he doesn?t lack for confidence. Their skills and personalities fit so well together, it allows for great flexibility and chances to take instinctive risks. Harris is playing for a big payday, so expect another monster season. Scott is Coach Ryan?s conduit to the field, a role he actively and emphatically embraces. Quite simply, the Jets are stacked at ILB.
Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace will start on the outside, though Pace will miss the beginning of the season with a broken foot. That bears watching, because he relies heavily on explosion off the snap and lateral agility as a rusher, plus he?s 30. His 8 sacks a year ago must be repeated, because he?s a picky run defender, one of those players that handily makes plays run at him but isn?t one of those guys that ever gets described as ?always around the ball?. Thomas is a decent run defender that can provide a solid inside rush, which seems oxymoronic for an outside backer but is actually a very good attribute in Ryan?s complex pressure defense. He?s never developed into the impact defender they hoped, but Thomas has provided the Jets with several years of dependable play. Longtime nemesis Jason Taylor joined the Jets as a ring-chasing, end-of-the-line veteran pass rush specialist. He will get most of the action in Pace?s absence and is probably still better against the run, but has clearly lost a step on his edge rush in the past couple of years. Perhaps his stint on Dancing With the Stars will breathe new life into his 36-year old legs. Up-and-coming Jamaal Westerman will push for snaps. If he can continue the positive momentum from his play in camp and during preseason, he?ll pass both Taylor and Thomas on the depth chart. At minimum, he is a promising depth player that can spell the starters without losing much oomph. Likewise, young Kenwin Cummings has impressed the coaches as the top interior reserve, though he?s got a steeper learning curve and isn?t as big as most ILBs. A pair of rookies, Josh Mauga and Cory Reamer, will fight it out on special teams for the other backup spot. Newcomer Lance Laury is strictly a special teamer, albeit a very good one.
DB: Pretty much everything here hinged on Darrelle Revis and how long he was prepared to sit out.
Revis is widely heralded as the best CB in the game today, a legit shutdown corner capable of eliminating one receiver from the field all by himself. That was certainly true a year ago, when he often dominated some very talented wideouts. His blanket ability gave Coach Ryan the freedom to blitz more and take more chances with the safeties and LBs.
Antonio Cromartie is the opposite corner, a highly talented player...at times. The Chargers happily dumped him after he quit on a play against the Jets in the playoffs, and that wasn?t the first time. When he?s on his game, Cromartie is an excellent ball hawk with great athleticism and hip flip. But he gets lazy out of his backpedal and guesses at routes far too often, and his tackling resembles swing dancing more than hitting and wrapping. I agree with the theory that a demanding coach like Ryan and playing off of Revis will motivate Cromartie, but that?s not a given. First round pick Kyle Wilson is a bit undersized but incredibly physical, which makes him ideal for playing in the slot. With Revis signed, Wilson gets a rookie season as the nickel back to adjust to the faster, stronger receivers in the NFL.
Dwight Lowery got picked on quite a bit playing opposite, and sometimes inside in the slot, Revis a year ago. He?s one of the rare Jets that are actually better than the fans believe. They think that because when Peanut gets beat, it?s often at very bad times and often looks real ugly. He lacks speed and doesn?t always come clean out of his backpedal, which hurts at corner but makes him well-suited for the hybrid safety/corner dime back role he will fill if/when Revis returns. Drew Coleman has all the speed Lowery lacks but has real trouble finding the ball. He?s had a strong offseason that could lead to an expanded role. With Revis the corners are a deep, versatile group; without him they?re decent but not special.
The safeties will be Jim Leonhard and Brodney Pool, as the Kerry Rhodes era came to a bitter end. Leonhard is a Coach Ryan favorite, a hard-hitting bundle of intensity with decent range and great instincts. He is the player that loses the most without Revis, however; being a safety and not having to worry about one third of the field allows for a lot more opportunities elsewhere and freedom to cheat in space. Pool was wildly inconsistent during his Cleveland days, which were marked by numerous concussions, though the quantity of which is a source of contentious debate. He?s got good ball skills and isn?t afraid to stick his nose in the box, but Browns fans most remember him for looking bewildered and pointing fingers when blowing several instances of over-the-top coverage. One skill he has that will help here: he?s a great blitzer. Special teams stalwart Eric Smith is the third safety. He was given a chance to beat out Pool but just couldn?t read the plays fast enough. The remainder of the DB depth is around for special teams only.
Special Teams
The Jets are better on returns than coverage thanks to Brad Smith and Jerricho Cotchery, both of whom are above-average return men. Lance Laury should help upgrade the coverage, particularly on punts. It would help if punter Steve Weatherford were more consistent with his hang time. The new kicker is former Cowboy Nick Folk, who got the shanks last year, but has looked very sharp in preseason. He is not known for strong kickoffs and his range tops out at about 52 yards, which sounds long enough until you see so many other kickers routinely nailing 60-yarders in warm-ups, while Folk can?t make the ground support post at 55. The cost-cutting swap of long snappers, from James Dearth to Tanner Purdum, is a questionable risk.
One thing the Jets bring to the table here is trickery. Weatherford is a great athlete at punter and can both run and throw, and Smith often lines up as the short back, making fakes both a threat and a viable option.
3 Keys to the season
1. Managing expectations. Nobody seems to remember this team was 7-7 and needed laydown efforts by the Colts and Bengals to make the playoffs, or that Sanchez was an inaccurate INT machine much of the season. Now they are the sexiest team in the league thanks to Hard Knocks, their braggadocios coach, and the surprise playoff run. They are a lot closer to the team that needed loads of help to make the playoffs than the team that darn near won the whole thing, and they need to remember that and play like that if they are to make another run. Swagger is great when backed up but laughable when it?s false bravado, and other teams would love nothing more than to shut these guys up.
2. Replacing the lost talent. Only the Cardinals lost more impact talent this offseason. It?s asking a lot of Shonn Greene and a washed-up LT to replace Thomas Jones and Leon Washington in the backfield, especially with stud run blocking guard Alan Faneca replaced by the likes of Matt Slauson. The departed were reliable talents; the newcomers have higher ceilings but significantly lower floors and a lot more questions and issues.
3. A strong start. The early schedule is foreboding: BAL, NE, @MIA to start, with early games with MIN, GB and @DEN mixed in. Having a young QB and a defense that could be without their top pass rusher in Pace means the team is in danger of starting slowly. They can?t afford on the charity of the Colts once again to make the playoffs, not with Miami improved and a tougher overall schedule lined up. Keeping the starters healthy, particularly on the OL, will be critical.
Forecast:
Most publications and talking heads have made the Jets this year?s It Girl, and there is certainly a lot to like here. But titles aren?t won in July and August, and there are a lot more questions here than I?m comfortable with to anoint the Jets as a playoff team, let alone the favorite in the AFC. I have a strong feeling this season will look a lot like last year: 7-7 and needing two wins and some help in the final two weeks to make it to the dance. I think they?ll get those wins, but the help isn?t going to come this time. New York opens their new stadium with a 3rd consecutive 9-7 finish, and they just miss a return to the playoffs in 2010.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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