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| Jeff Risdon. 7th September, 2010 - 12:38 am
 2009 record: 12-4
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +6
Sack Differential: +14
Point Differential: +158
Coming In: WR Greg Camarillo, K Rhys Lloyd, CB Lito Sheppard
Going Out: RB Chester Taylor, CB Benny Sapp, OL Artis Hicks
Key Rookies: CB Chris Cook, RB Toby Gerhart, G/C Chris Degeare
5 Reasons for Optimism
1. The defensive front. Minnesota fields the class of the league in 4-man fronts. Right DE Jared Allen is an elite sack artist with an unstoppable motor and a special nose for both the QB and finding the ball on draws and sweeps. He has the full arsenal of pass rush moves and athletic attributes, but what truly makes him special is his nonstop aggressiveness. He comes out of the tunnel in a froth and maintains that intensity on every snap until the final gun, and that wears down even the best opposing tackles. One thing that Allen does that doesn?t get a lot of attention: chipping the TE. Normally it?s the tight end that chips into the defensive end to help slow him down, but Allen does a fantastic job of blasting the tight end off his route line and disrupting timing, and it doesn?t interfere with his ability to get to the QB on the play. The only other guy I recall that could do that so effectively was Rickey Jackson, who just went into the Hall of Fame.
The Williams Wall returns inside for yet another season of run stuffing dominance. For years now Pat and Kevin Williams have clogged up the middle third of the field for opposing ball carriers, and that should continue. Pat Williams is the immovable object on the nose, a bedrock that never gets pushed backwards and often completely obstructs the A gaps. Kevin is the penetrator, the gap-shooting agitator with quick hands that is darn near impossible to block. They are the premier interior tackle duo in the league.
Left end Ray Edwards has been a pleasant development. His job is foremost to stop the run, but he has developed into a reliable pass rushing threat and counterbalance to Allen. In fact, Edwards actually registered more QB hurries than Allen last year (33 to 30), and his 8 sacks show he?s developing a finisher?s touch. With solid reserves Jimmy Kennedy inside and Brian Robison outside, the Vikings have a very impressive defensive front.
2. Talent at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is one of the most dynamic rushers in the game, a bruising speedster with great vision and balance. Percy Harvin is the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, a versatile dynamo that can line up anywhere and take any play to the house. Sidney Rice emerged as a big-play wideout with great size, speed, and hands, pulling down 83 catches for nearly 1400 yards. Visanthe Shiancoe showed excellent seam-stretching ability and a real nose for the end zone with his 11 TDs. Brett Favre revitalized his career at the controls of such a talented cast, providing the rudder that steered them all into one cohesive unit. In short, the Vikings are loaded at the offensive skill positions, even with the loss of #2 RB Chester Taylor. All that weaponry and versatility means that one or two guys can have a bad game or miss one here and there due to injury and the Vikings still have the legit firepower to outscore almost anyone. The depth players here are decent too. Bernard Berrian still has gas in the tank, Greg Lewis is still capable of making game-winning tiptoe grabs, and rookie Toby Gerhart assumes Taylor?s role as receiving RB with surprising inside running ability, with somewhat promising Albert Young backing him up. With all that talent, this team is going to score some points.
3. A sense of urgency. This team lost in overtime in the NFC Championship game on one bad play, and the core of the team is aging. The coaching staff is under some fire to deliver now, and the quarterback cannot play forever. There is a very acute awareness amongst the Vikings that this is the end of their great window of opportunity with this group. That?s why they pressed for Favre to return, and it?s been an unspoken theme since last year ended so bitterly. There is clear focus on the prize, one that is hellbent on keeping distractions to a minimum and controversy pushed aside. Many close observers have commented on how individuals on this team have consciously put aside their personal differences for the sake of the team. That?s a fragile balance, but that balance only gets easier once the games start--especially if they get off to a fast start. The young guys have bought into it too, trying to help send out their older mates winners and beginning a legacy of long-term success of their own. Coach Brad Childress has done a nice job of forging that culture in the locker room, so much that his job likely depends on it. That?s powerful incentive on a whole lot of fronts to win now.
4. Number 4 came back. Even though everyone pretty much assumed Brett Favre was coming back, he had to sell the drama up to the last moment. There was simply no way he was going to leave his teammates in the lurch. And it would have been quite the lurch had Favre not returned, because the more we see of Tarvaris Jackson, the less anyone believes he could handle the reins of a playoff team. Favre?s return gives legitimacy to the Super Bowl talk, and that breeds confidence in the locker room and, just as importantly, respect in the minds of opponents. Favre gives them a puncher?s chance even when the defense has a bad day, or Adrian Peterson keeps fumbling, or the special teams break down. Without him, that self-belief goes away. It?s precisely why the effort of his teammates to recruit him back included not just offensive mates, but also Jared Allen and Ryan Longwell. Favre means that much to the entire team.
It?s unreasonable to think Favre can put up the kind of numbers he did a year ago, when he threw 33 touchdowns against just 7 INTs. He?ll turn 41 in October and comes off a torn up ankle that was his ?out?, so to speak. In the 4 seasons prior, Favre averaged almost 20 INTs a season and it?s unlikely anyone will ever approach his career INT totals. His newfound embrace of ball security and prudence in throwing the ball away might stick somewhat, but he?s still Brett Favre. Expect the INTs to rise and the TD total to slide back a bit, but he should really be judged on two main points: red zone efficiency and performances in the second halves of games where the margin is 10 points of less. Favre was astonishingly successful in both regards a year ago, and that helped the Vikings close out some wins that would otherwise have gone the other way. That magic must still reside in #4, and I?ll believe it?s gone only when I see that it?s gone. I haven?t seen that yet, and trust me, I?ve been looking!
5. Special teams. These units dramatically improved in 2009 and could be even better in 2010 with the addition of kickoff specialist Rhys Lloyd. Ryan Longwell remains one of the better FG kickers in the game but his kickoffs were lousy, and Lloyd made a big impact on a similar Carolina unit a few years back. Percy Harvin gave the Vikings a true threat at kick return, something they?ve lacked. He made the Pro Bowl for his exciting ability. Darius Reynaud is an above-average punt returner with sure hands and no fear. Chris Kluwe is a decent punter with a good knack for creating fair catches at the opponent?s 15 yard line. Minnesota has the special teams ability to change the game with a big return or a field-flipping punt or a long FG, something that they just haven?t had in recent years. That likely wins them an extra game or two and proves invaluable once they get to the playoffs.
5 Reasons for Pessimism
1. Father time. It?s not just having a QB that is also a grandpa that concerns me. Pat Williams is 37 and gave some thought to retirement, and several other critical players are on the wrong side of 30 and the downsides of their careers: Steve Hutchinson, Antoine Winfield, EJ Henderson, Bryant McKinnie, Visanthe Shiancoe, Kevin Williams. That?s a large percentage of the core of the team, players that the Vikings can ill afford any appreciable dropoff in performance. That?s a dangerous road to walk, especially since the depth isn?t great behind many of those guys. This is the downside to coming so close a year ago and believing that pretty much the exact same team can get it done again.
One area that a lot of people don?t think about with aging players is practice. Those older bodies need more time to heal, which typically means they get one or two days of practice off every week, if they even practice at all during the season. That leads to execution problems and opponent-specific issues (think an OL playing a 3-man front after weeks against a 4-man). It?s harder to implement in-season changes and tweaks because the older guys can?t go in practice, and there is a big difference between seeing it on film and on the greaseboard and actually going out and doing it against a live opponent. I don?t have the historical data to back it up, but I hypothesize that older teams are prone to slower starts in games. Maybe if I get some time I can explore that more, but pay attention to how the aged Vikings play in the 1st quarter of games and how frequently the aging vets miss practice.
2. The secondary. This is unquestionably the weak point of the defense, though it?s not devoid of talent. A lot hinges on how well top CB Antoine Winfield returns from his foot injury, which he rushed last season with very poor results. He?s now 33 and is much better against the run than covering anywhere more than 10 yards from the line, but he fits well in the zone...if he?s healthy. The Vikings desperately need him to be back at full speed all season because the other starting CB will be, uh, hmm. Top draft pick Chris Cook had the spot sewn up before hurting his knee in the preseason, but he only had that opportunity because normal starter Cedric Griffin is still rehabbing his torn ACL suffered late in the NFC Championship game. They brought in Lito Sheppard, but he has fallen off more than anyone expected and is probably behind second year Asher Allen on the depth chart. Allen was a disappointment in the zone coverage as a rookie but could emerge as a real good player, just not right away. Cook is similar in that regard; I think he?ll be a good starter at some point, just not in 2010. They are hopeful Griffin can come back quickly, but they must caution against rushing him back like they did with Winfield last season. Having laid out all those questions, cornerback is clearly the strength of the secondary.
The safeties simply have to play better. Young SS Tyrell Johnson has been a major disappointment, lacking aggression and not showing great range in coverage. He?s solid against the run, but because the line and LBs are so good, that?s a bit superfluous here. Neither he nor starting free safety Madieu Williams make anything happen with the ball in the air, and both have their limitations in deep zone coverage. He holds onto his job only because the Vikings haven?t been able to find anyone better. Jamarca Sanford showed some promise as a rookie last year, but he?s much better geared for strong safety and his skills are fairly redundant with Johnson on the strong side.
3. The offensive line. All that fantastic skill position talent is largely dependent on the big guys up front giving them opportunity to shine. By and large the OL afforded them that a year ago, but that?s far from a certainty to carry over. It?s the exact same cast of characters up front: LT Bryant McKinnie, LG Steve Hutchinson, C John Sullivan, RG Anthony Herrera, and RT Phil Loadholt. McKinnie and Hutchinson both showed signs of imminent decline a year ago, and that?s a very real problem. McKinnie has always been a bit of a wild card, but he could be counted upon to come up big when needed. That knack all but disappeared last season, as did his good pad level. The knee bend just isn?t there anymore, and he loses leverage too readily in run blocking but also in inside pass protection. Hutchinson has also lost some oomph in the run blocking department, though he?s still a very good one. Some of that might be the fact that he had to help the woefully weak Sullivan control the middle. Sullivan just simply lacks the strength to handle NFL defensive tackles, and no amount of weight room work will change that.
The right side isn?t near as talented as the left, but at times Herrera and Loadholt function better together than their counterparts. Both are better run blockers than in pass protection, and they seem to communicate and play off one another nicely. They need to, because Herrera doesn?t move well and Loadholt is stiff-kneed and doesn?t have great balance. Losing Artis Hicks could be trouble because he could fill in with reasonable competence anywhere on the line. It?s a hole that will likely go unplugged, as the only fresh face here is 5th rounder Chris Degeare, who will have to work hard to get to Hicks? level of average.
4. A virulent injury bug. It?s stung already, from Ced Griffin?s knee in the NFC title game to Percy Harvin?s nasty migraines to Sidney Rice?s knee surgery to John Sullivan?s bum calf. Few teams enter the regular season with as much summer injury baggage as the Vikings, and that is an issue that tends to not go away quickly. This team is old (yes, I?ve beaten that to death) and has a lot of key guys with a lot of injury history, from E.J. Henderson to Favre (despite his amazing durability) to Peterson?s college days. Of course it?s impossible to predict who will get hit with injury or when they?ll occur, but a summer where the two starting WRs go down for extended time is not a good omen. They cannot afford for Favre, Peterson, Harvin, Winfield, Jared Allen, or Kevin Williams to miss any time if they still wish to harbor legit playoff aspirations.
5. The schedule. It?s not pretty right from the get-go. Opening in New Orleans, the scene of the playoff crime. Home dates with Miami and an improved Detroit team that always plays them tough. After the early bye week--a bad break for an old team--it?s the Jets, Cowboys, Packers, Patriots, and Cardinals. They face several legit playoff teams and a much tougher NFC North schedule. This will not be a cakewalk back to the playoffs, made even more difficult by the predominance of 3-4 defensive teams and pass-first offenses on the schedule. Both of those schemes play to the weaknesses of the Vikings, and these old dogs aren?t likely to master new tricks quickly.
3 Keys to the season
1. The defensive front seven. This group has the potential to be dominant, and they?ve shown that dominance...at times. They must consistently control the line of scrimmage and keep passing games out of synch to help out the secondary.
2. Controlling turnovers. Adrian Peterson is a great talent, but ball security is not an asset. Favre has thrown over 40 more INTs than any other QB and he?s second all-time in fumbles. Harvin had issues holding onto the ball at Florida. The defense is likely to force their fair share, but the offense cannot give the ball back and squander scoring opportunities and field position. They managed it well last year, but repeating that is no given.
3. Keeping it all together. There are a great deal of tenuous bonds holding this team together, the strongest being the collective goal of winning the Super Bowl. If this team struggles early, particularly if one unit dramatically lags the other, that all goes out the window. With the personalities, egos, and relative lack of locker room control by a coach whose seat is either warm or flaming (depending on who you read), the fur will fly pretty quickly if the leaders can?t keep it all tight all year long.
Forecast
The loss of Sidney Rice for half the season and Percy Harvin?s ongoing battles with migraines give me pause, because one of the things that makes the Vikings a legit contender is their offensive balance. But there is so much talent here, and the defensive front is good enough to win some games when the offense sputters. The schedule is almost ridiculously tough, but this is a veteran unit with a laser focus on the ultimate prize. I think the regular season win total will go down, but this is a playoff team with a legit chance to win the Super Bowl. Minnesota finishes 10-6, winning the NFC North and with a chance to win any and every playoff game.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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