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| Jeff Risdon. 5th September, 2010 - 3:56 pm
 2009 record: 1-15
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: -13
Sack Differential:-29
Point Differential: -261
Coming In: LB Bobby Carpenter, LB Na?il Diggs, DT Fred Robbins, TE Darcy Johnson, S Kevin Payne
Going Out: QB Marc Bulger, T Alex Barron, DT Adam Carriker, RB Samkon Gado, QB Kyle Boller, TE Randy McMichael, WR Tim Carter, LB Paris Lenon, CB Jonathan Wade
Key Rookies: QB Sam Bradford, T Rodger Saffold, CB Jerome Murphy, TE Michael Hoomanawanui
5 Reasons for Optimism
1. The offensive line is better than you think. The starting five up front are a lot better than anything the Rams have had since the Mike Martz era heyday. Spending the #2 draft pick in 2009 and the #33 pick in 2010 on bookend tackles gives the Rams very good young talent at a recent chronic sore spot--potentially. Jason Smith must overcome the injuries that washed out much of his rookie campaign, while Saffold is making the jump from a bottom-tier BCS program to the NFL, albeit to a bottom-tier NFL squad. Before his concussion a year ago, Smith proved an excellent run blocker. Saffold impressed draftniks with his sound fundamentals and natural ability in pass protection.
The interior of the line isn?t as young, but it should be sound as well. Center Jason Brown was the Rams? big free agent splash a year ago, and he did not disappoint despite the chaos around him. He is a rock in the middle of the line, a legit building block and line captain that can make all the calls. He?s also quite good at the shotgun snap and subsequently firing out to run block, which is perhaps the toughest test of a center. With what appears to be an increased emphasis here on using the shotgun, that?s an invaluable acumen. Jacob Bell has not made the splash expected as the prized free agent of 2008, but he?s been decent when healthy. He remains a solid starting LG despite being undersized, and the increased use of zone blocking will only help Bell. Right guard falls to veteran Adam Goldberg, who started 14 games at various spots on the line a year ago. He?s probably better-used in that 6th lineman role, but he plays best at guard and can hold the fort. Top reserve guard John Greco has impressed the coaches with his development, which could push Goldberg back to that swing role if injuries strike.
2. Steven Jackson. To sum up the awesomeness of Steven Jackson, I?ll quote a highly respected NFL GM. We were in a small group talking in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, and someone compared one of the runners there to Jackson. This GM said, ?Let me tell you something right now. There isn?t one player in this league that I wouldn?t trade to get Steven Jackson. Not one, period.? This drew a bemused response from an NFL Network talking head in the group. A few names were bandied about--Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Chris Johnson and others--and this GM shot every one of them down with the same phrase: ?Jackson?s better? except for Manning, for which he replied ?Jackson?s got a lot more football left in him.? I?m not quite sure I agree with that unanimity, but the fact that nobody there in the football cognoscenti really thought he was wrong says a lot about how highly Jackson is regarded. He is certainly in the top 3 overall running backs in the league when he?s healthy, and on a more successful team he would be a legit MVP candidate.
(Extended tangent--I relayed the above story to a Rams coach while at the Combine. He smiled broadly and told me the Rams were offered a first round pick, a third round pick, a very good starting WR and a fairly decent starting RB for Jackson. They didn?t even consider making the deal. Trust me Rams fans, they know what a talent they have here!)
3. Additions by subtractions. GM Billy Devaney and Coach Steve Spagnuolo have purged quite a bit of the roster in the past 18 months, including some of the more prominent names on the team. I applaud their attitude of swallowing the hard medicine in one big shot rather than spreading out the pain; fans have suffered badly the past couple of seasons, but by going forward with the major overhaul in one fell swoop, the light at the end of the tunnel is progress and not a freight train barreling down. Guys like Alex Barron, Richie Incognito, Adam Carriker, Randy McMichael, and Jonathan Wade were all starters with some legit plusses, but none were part of the long-term plan. Having such a plan and sticking to it is the fundamental key to escaping the cycle of failure. The Rams will no doubt be tempted to veer--having a new owner not noted for patience with his other pro sports toys could alter the picture--but by playing the youngsters now and not perpetually importing band-aid middling veterans, and by identifying quickly who fits and who does not, Devaney & Co. have got the ball rolling in the right direction.
4. Halfway there. The secondary has two very good starters, both of whom are hitting the primes of their careers. Corner Ronald Bartell isn?t an elite talent, but he?s an impressive all-around corner, solid in man coverage and comfortable playing off in zone. His ball skills aren?t great but he is one of the better CBs in the league at identifying routes and disrupting timing. He also is a reliable tackler, an underappreciated skill on most subpar defenses. He?s a legit building block that should only improve as the talent around him improves.
O.J. Atogwe nearly left this summer before finally agreeing to play under his restricted free agent tender offer. A disgruntled Atogwe is still a whole lot better than no Atogwe, which the Rams experienced last year when he missed a few games with a shoulder injury. The rangy safety is an exceptional tackler that knows how to finish off his hits. He tends to have to make too many tackles too far downfield, but he seldom misses. He?s also rock solid in coverage, better at playing a sort of physical centerfield a la Ed Reed than in straight man work. If he were to get any sort of help in shorter coverage--which he might get this year--Atogwe could attack the ball more often and force more big plays. He has the talent and instincts to do so, but the lack of a sound supporting cast has forced Atogwe to play it safer. Actually, Craig Dahl had some real positive moments at the other safety spot, though he played better when filling in for Atogwe. He?s athletically limited but makes the most of his abilities and fills the hole against the run nicely. Ideally he?s a 3rd safety but considering what the Rams have had around Atogwe lately, Dahl should do. Maybe the secondary is a little more than halfway there.
5. The improving defensive front. One of the reasons it was easy for the Rams to take Bradford with the #1 overall pick ahead of the almost universally higher-rated Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy (both DTs) is that the defensive line is probably the most complete group on the team. Even though they whiffed on Carriker, Clifton Ryan has developed into a decent starting tackle and a pretty effective run stuffer. He holds his ground well and is crafty enough to slip a block and make some tackles right at the line. Newcomer Fred Robbins is no newcomer to Spagnuolo?s defense, and the savvy veteran is the same sort of player as Ryan, only Robbins was more able to get into the backfield before the injuries cost him some quickness. They?re not likely to get more than 3 combined sacks between them, but they should hold up nicely against the run.
The development of Chris Long is the key. The 2nd overall pick three years ago has been merely good, not great. He showed signs of becoming a more complete pass rusher a year ago, but this season he needs to turn more of his QB pressures into sacks. He?s always been a sound run defender and he?s absolutely lethal at diagnosing and blowing up screens, but the Rams didn?t take him so high in the draft for that--they need double digit sacks. I think he?ll show game improvement and develop into the player the Rams want, and need, him to be. Veteran James Hall is a good complementary rusher that knows and accepts his role, though his run defense leaves something to be desired. There is a worry that his tank might be running out of gas, however. Leonard Little may or may not return as a pass rush specialist, and anything he contributes should be taken as a bonus. Dorrell Scott is a solid rotational tackle that provides the only appreciable depth anywhere on the defense.
James Laurinaitis shined in his rookie year, effectively using the chip on his shoulder from fading in the draft and unleashing his anger on opposing ballcarriers. His athleticism was better than advertised, but he hits very much like the son of a professional wrestler. The Rams loved his application of film study and his ability to quickly learn from mistakes. He?s a Pro Bowl-caliber talent in the middle for years to come. A pair of fellow former Buckeyes, Bobby Carpenter and Na?il Diggs, will start with him. Diggs is a bit of a journeyman but he?s always been a very good run defender on the strong side, able to avoid traffic and get off blocks. Carpenter was a complete misfit in Dallas? 3-4 scheme, and a return to the more familiar 4-3 weak side spot should do wonders to resuscitate his career. He?s a good blitzer, which gives him more functionality here than the man he?s replacing, Paris Lenon, though Lenon is much better in coverage. The changes and improvements should help the Rams field a solid run defense with some legit playmaking potential.
5 Reasons to Worry
1. Who will catch the ball? The #1 wideout entering the summer was Donnie Avery, an undersized , straight-line only youngster that has had injury issues. He didn?t make it to the third preseason game without being lost for the season. The next man up is Laurent Robinson, a guy with good size and speed but that the WR-needy (at the time) Falcons sent packing because he?s soft--and I don?t use that term lightly or flippantly. He?s worked on that, but he missed the final 13 games with injury last year. He?s still got potential, but a lot to prove as well. Speedy but straight-line Brandon Gibson is the likely starter opposite Robinson. He had some decent moments as a rookie, but Gibson is at least two spots higher on the depth chart here than he would be on most other teams. Danny Amendola is a fringe journeyman still getting chances because he followed the physically similar but vastly more talented Wes Welker in college. He?ll likely be the slot receiver, unless ultra-skinny rookie Mardy Gilyard proves he can actually catch the ball--which has been a major problem for him. His NFL future is much brighter as a return man than as anything more than a 4th wideout. This group lacks physicality and size in a big way; Gibson and oft-cut Jordan Kent are the only receivers over 195 pounds.
The situation doesn?t look much better at tight end. Billy Bajema caught a career-high 8 balls last year, yet he?s the #1 TE here. He?s a blocking specialist--and a very good one, but he almost certainly won?t break 15 receptions this year. Daniel Fells is a better receiver but his blocking is subpar, though he did provide the Rams with their one shining moment when he hauled in a fake field goal for the winning TD against Detroit. He figures to be the flexed-out TE and has just enough speed to keep safeties honest in the seam. Darcy Johnson goes from being the odd man out in New York to the third wheel in St. Louis, but he?ll have to beat out rookie Michael Hoomanawanui for that spot. Hooma has shined in the preseason and could emerge as a solid starter at some point, but he?s a largely plodding rookie that doesn?t block real well...yet.
2. Overall depth. As is common on teams with a great deal of roster and management turnover, there is very little established depth across the board in St. Louis. What makes it more troubling with the Rams is their recent proclivity for getting hurt; the Rams have finished in the top 5 in starter games lost to injury three years in a row. Not only is that a disturbing trend, but it also means that many young developmental players have missed critical time and failed to get as much experience as they should have. That stymied growth really shows on the depth chart of the offense, where other than at TE most of the backups here would be lucky to make an active roster anywhere else. With Avery already hurt and A.J. Feeley felled in preseason as well, that rotten injury luck appears to still have its ugly head reared high. That means the Rams will be forced to play overmatched and inexperienced talent more than they?d like, and that means a lot of losses between the (hopeful) silver linings of surprise performers (think Brandon Gibson a year ago) that spring from it.
3. Establishing an identity. With so many moving pieces and parts, it?s hard to put a finger on what exactly the Rams are as a team. Are they a power running team, as befits Jackson and the O-line? Are they a shotgun passing offense, as befits their QB and prized tackle? Are they a zone-blitz pressure squad, or will they morph into a hybrid 4-3/3-4? Who are the locker room leaders, both now and in the years beyond? Will the new ownership be more aggressive in importing talent and pursuing deals, as Mr. Kroenke has been with his hockey and basketball teams? We all have some idea of the answers here, but it?s difficult to ascertain how it all comes together both on the field and behind the scenes. That sort of variability and lack of a concrete identity, some pillar to hang your hat upon, makes it hard to grow.
4. The rookie QB factor. Sam Bradford was the #1 overall pick and will presumably start right away, thanks to a preseason injury to seat-filler A.J. Feeley. There are two sides to the ?should they play right away?? debate regarding rookie first-round QBs, and I?m firmly of the opinion that they should--if they?re ready. Bradford has flashed some moments in preseason that make him look as ready as he can be for a guy coming off a major shoulder injury. He clearly can make all the throws, but that was true of Matt Stafford a year ago and Peyton Manning well over a decade ago.
Rookie QBs struggle. They aren?t used to the intricacies and subtleties of NFL football. They throw INTs and lots of ?em. It takes time to adjust to the vastly increase overall level of competition and skill of the defensive players. Savvy veterans and coaches play tricks and pull out all the stops to confuse and bewilder, effectively saying ?prove it rook?. Sam Bradford could very well develop into a great NFL QB down the line, but it?s not going to happen in 2010. Much like Stafford and Mark Sanchez a year ago, Bradford will have some very good moments and some egregious errors that cost his team games. He will throw more INTs than TDs, perhaps twice as many. His completion percentage will likely be at least 5 points lower than any year for the rest of his career. He?ll take bad sacks and struggle in the red zone. The Rams and Bradford are both better for it in the long run, because he badly needs the game experience and this team needs an offensive leader. As long as he doesn?t get hurt--and that is my primary concern about Bradford heading back to the draft process--there is no reason not to play him and let him take his lumps now while expectations are lower.
5. History. Teams that have the Rams recent abysmal track record don?t tend to get much better overnight. Winning just six games in three seasons is nearly unprecedented, and the fact the Rams have progressively worsened makes the trend more troubling. Even with the great Steven Jackson and significant improvements to the offensive line and (potentially) quarterback situations, this team must learn how to win. That?s a real challenge, and having a largely greenhorn coaching staff won?t make that any easier. That?s not a knock on Spagnuolo, whom I think is a bright coach with a good future, but coaches have learning curves too. It?s not out of the question for everything to come together quickly and for the Rams to catch a ton of breaks--think the 2008 Falcons, but it?s more likely the team must first battle through the lessons of learning how to win close games, how to close out games on defense, how to score in the red zone, how to avoid the penalties that so often plague young teams. Because the rebuild is still in the early stages, part of the function of 2010 in St. Louis is to ascertain which players are part of the long-term solution. Unfortunately for Rams fans, too often teams figure that out by seeing who makes mistakes in key situations.
Forecast
The 2010 Rams will be the best team they?ve fielded in four years. That?s the good news. The bad news is that none of the last three years produced more than three wins, and the 2009 version was one of the worst teams in NFL history. The building blocks are starting to get assembled, but it takes time. I suspect the defense will improve enough to keep more games close, and the rushing offense will be good if the key cogs stay healthy. But starting a green rookie QB with one of the worst WR corps I?ve ever seen means balance will be a real problem. The schedule has several potential wins, and I like the Rams to come through in a few of those. St. Louis finishes with a 4-12 record but the arrow is pointing up.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
