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| Jeff Risdon. 27th August, 2010 - 12:09 pm
 2009 record: 9-7
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: -1
Sack Differential: +4
Point Differential: +55
Coming In: K Neil Rackers, TE Michael Gaines, G Wade Smith, LB Danny Clark
Going Out: CB Dunta Robinson, RB Chris Brown, QB Rex Grossman, G Chester Pitts, RB Ryan Moats
Key Rookies: CB Kareem Jackson, LB Daryl Sharpton, CB Sherrick McManis, DT Earl Mitchell
Offense
QB: Matt Schaub is coming off a career apex, starting all 16 games for the first time and throwing for over 4700 yards and 29 TDs. He finally ascended to the upper tier of productivity and has developed very good chemistry with his primary receivers. One of the best at identifying the blitz and attacking the weak spots behind them, Schaub has the ability to distribute the ball accurately all over the field. He?s long been noted as throwing a very catchable ball and he reliably puts it right where the receivers want it. Schaub has good mobility, though he tends to rely on that more than he needs to. He?s smart with calling audibles and owns one of the best play-action fakes this side of Boomer Esiason.
Repeating those numbers from a year ago will be a challenge. Even though he played all 16 games, Schaub wears more protective armor than a bomb squad member to protect all his various maladies. He?s had happy feet going back to his days at UVA and doesn?t stick with deeper routes if he doesn?t like the initial read, both apparent by-products of an overdeveloped sense of self-preservation. There is a history of fumbling as well, though he did a better job of that last year.
The Texans sorely need Schaub to avoid the injury bug once again, because the top backup is Dan Orlovsky. Ironically, one prominent draftnik (not me) called Orlovsky ?a poor man?s Matt Schaub? because they share many of the same stylistic and physical attributes. The one major difference is that Schaub has some pocket presence, whereas Orlovsky has never mastered the panic reflex. He?ll always be best known for stepping out of the back of the end zone for the deciding safety that kept the Lions winless in 2008, which is unfair and unfortunate. He can probably fill in for a couple of drives and steady the ship, but as a long-term fill-in, the Texans offense just won?t be as explosive or vertical. John David Booty will hold the clipboard.
RB: There is some hope here that last season?s finish will lead to bigger and better rushing results in 2010. Rookie Arian Foster pounded his way to over 200 yards and well over 5 yards per carry in the final two games, and he enters 2010 as the top RB option. Physical at 225 pounds but patient enough to set up and read blocks, Foster gets great pad level and has decent balance between the tackles. The caution is to not read too much into stats piled up at the end of a season where he was an undrafted rookie and the 4th option until December. Foster does fit well with the zone blocking scheme and he?s a solid receiver. How well he can handle a more prominent role is a big unknown, and he?s had some fumbling issues, a malady that appears to infect this entire backfield.
Steve Slaton entered 2009 as the feature back, coming off a surprisingly effective rookie season (sound familiar?). A small inside-out slasher, Slaton was very effective at bouncing plays outside and beating the defense to the edge during his rookie year. Last year, however, was a different story; the team tried to use him inside more, and teams properly adjusted to his style, using the safeties wider and having their ends not try to get upfield so quickly when Slaton was lined up in the backfield. The result was that Slaton?s yards per carry got cut nearly 33% and his elusiveness turned into dancing in the backfield. He?s also got a nasty case of fumblitis--his fumble per attempt rate is higher than any other RB over the last two seasons. This year the Texans appear poised to deploy Slaton in more of the 3rd down back role, where his excellent receiving skills and ability to get outside are more of an asset. One major caveat: Slaton comes off neck fusion surgery, a dicey status that at best impacts his durability and at worst makes him a major risk for serious debilitating injuries, including paralysis.
Losing 2nd round pick Ben Tate to a preseason injury is a real blow to the depth. He was expected to compete with Foster for the heavy back role. That spot now falls to Titans draft flop Chris Henry, a 2007 2nd rounder that quite literally defines the derogatory term ?stiff?. Jeremiah Johnson could wrangle his way into that spot if he proves he has the toughness and vision, but don?t expect more than mop-up duty for either guy.
Vontae Leach returns as the fullback, and he?s a very good lead blocker that sees the field like a running back. He?s quite effective at chip-blocking and then flaring out as a sure-handed safety valve. Potentially, jack-of-many/master-of-no trades James Casey can line up as a fullback or H-back aside from his normal duties as an undersized TE/slow WR.
WR/TE: Andre Johnson gets all the publicity, but this group is a lot more than just the All Pro wideout. Johnson is certainly the straw that stirs the drink though, and the Texans recognized this by granting him a lucrative new contract even though he was just two years into a lucrative 7-year deal.
The former 1st-rounder from Miami has led the league in receiving yards two years running, with over 1500 yards each season. As Schaub has grown into being an above-average QB, Johnson?s yards per catch have increased from a pedestrian 11-yard range (see 2005-06) to a fantastic 15.5 last year. That?s a tremendous average for a guy that sees nearly 11 throws per game sent his way, especially since he isn?t the greatest runner after the catch and seldom breaks 50+ yard bombs. Johnson?s body control and positioning is exemplary, and he?s too big at 6?3? and nearly 230 pounds for most corners to press or handle across the middle, where he does the lion?s share of his damage. He is a skilled downfield blocker and a solid leader by example. There are some chinks; top-flight CBs like Revis and Asomugha kept him largely contained, while he amassed freakish outputs against the crappola of the NFC West, and he?s not great in the red zone despite being physically overwhelming.
The other wideouts have clearly defined roles. Kevin Walter is the intermediate threat, very good at slants and drags where he can use his size to present a good target on the move. He thrives at coming out of the slot inside Johnson and is good enough to help relieve safety pressure off him. His catches have gone down two years in a row, but he?s still a very viable underneath threat with great hands and strength. Jacoby Jones is the outside downfield threat and an emerging (finally!) talent. He is turning the corner from raw project to significant contributor, learning how to change gears and use his shoulders and hips to create separation. Walter?s declining stats are at the expense of Jones, who should bag about 20 more receptions than his 27 of a year ago while still keeping his YPC over 16. Rookie Dorin Dickerson, a converted TE, has the inside track on veteran Andre Davis as the #4 wideout, a role that primarily consists of running 9 routes and deep square-ins and catching 1-2 balls a week. David Anderson is functional as the possession slot receiver; he?s caught 57 passes the last two seasons and only 2 were more than 18 yards from the line, and he is never the primary option.
A healthy return from TE Owen Daniels would be a major boon for the offense. Daniels is one of the fastest tight ends in the league and functions as a great interior field stretching option, averaging over 12 yards per catch over the last three seasons. However, he tore his ACL in Week 8 last year and won?t play until Week 1 at the earliest. If he loses any speed or agility, his value plummets because he?s a downright terrible blocker. Joel Dreessen takes over as the starting TE in his stead. Dreessen has a similar style but is not nearly as fast, though he is a marginally superior blocker. Rookie Garrett Graham is more of an all-around tight end and has put on a nice showing in camp. He will stick and could usurp Dreessen if he continues to click with Schaub. James Casey and Derek Fine are superfluous roster filler.
OL: The strength here is RT Eric Winston, one of the best all-around right siders in the league. A menacing but technically sound run blocker, he did not give up a sack or commit a penalty a year ago. He?s also a respected locker room leader and unofficial team spokesman; if you hear a Texan giving a radio interview, it?s probably Winston and you?re probably impressed. Duane Brown showed improvement in his second season after struggling as a surprise 1st round rookie on the left side. His kick step is still a work in progress but he is quick to recover and does a nice job at staying in the way even when beaten around the edge. Brown is not a powerful run blocker but he does get to the second level well in this zone scheme. The tackles get little help from tight ends here, so both Winston and Brown tend to line up shading outside, which leaves them vulnerable to strong inside moves and stunts.
That makes it incumbent upon the guards to play well in pass protection. Houston hopes to do that with two different starters from opening day 2009: Antoine Caldwell on the right and Kasey Studdard on the left. Studdard filled in admirably for stalwart Chester Pitts a year ago, playing well enough that they let the popular Pitts depart via free agency. He?s very aggressive and maintains a good pad level, though he lacks quick feet, making him a bit of a misfit in the zone scheme. Caldwell enters his second season on the upswing, though how well he can handle the starting gig is an unknown. He was a better run blocker than pass protector last year, and Arian Foster?s late-season burst happened to coincide with more playing time for Caldwell. He and Winston often flattened some big holes for the big runner, and coach Kubiak no doubt wants more of that. Center Chris Myers is undersized but not real quick, which makes him a liability against strong interior rushers. He leaves his feet too readily in run blocking. The team brought in competition/insurance in the form of former Chief Wade Smith, who can play all the interior positions but has fared best at center. He and former starter Mike Brisiel, who spent most of last year on IR, represent the depth. That?s solid on the interior but leaves some major holes if Brown or Winston gets hurt at tackle. Practice squadders Adam Stenavich and Rashad Butler don?t exactly inspire confidence. Another change of note is that legendary zone blocking guru Alex Gibbs is gone as the OL coach, replaced by prot?g? Rick Dennison, with Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews expanding his role as positional coach too.
Defense
DL: Houston has heavily invested in this line, and if they?re going to finally make the playoffs it will be because this unit is finally living up to all the potential. The starting 4 are better in name than function: Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye, Antonio Smith, and Shaun Cody. Williams is an accomplished pass rusher with excellent burst off the snap. He struggled a bit with some nagging injuries last year, bagging just 9.5 sacks and clearly not able to close on the ball as quickly. He should be back to full strength in 2010, and he should command double teams more frequently as a result. People around the team whisper that they?d like to see Williams develop more of an inside bull rush and be more willing to crash inside against the run. One area where he needs no improvement: defending screen passes. Opponents threw screens to his side 17 times last year, for an average gain of exactly 1 yard (thanks NFL.com for that nugget).
Okoye was also a first round pick and has been something of an enigma. He?s very quick and has developed a solid spin move, but the productivity has just not met expectations. Yet. He is poised for a breakout campaign, and I expect him to finish more sacks (just 1.5 last year) and bag more tackles (38 a year ago) in 2010 and beyond. That will require help from Williams, who needs to not try and rush the passer on every down, and fellow DT Shaun Cody. The former Lion is far too content to dance with the blockers and creates zero upfield surge. If he continues to merely occupy space, expect to see a lot more of rookie Earl Mitchell, who is smaller but more active. Big Frank Okam is a space-eater both on the field and the depth chart.
Antonio Smith struggled a little with the move from the 3-man front in Arizona to playing LDE in a 4-man front in Houston. He doesn?t have a great outside burst and is more of a complementary pass rusher, a guy that thrives at being the second guy in the picture. Smith is reliable at backside containment but doesn?t make a lot of tackles. He?ll look better with a stronger season from Williams, but if he doesn?t instigate more action young Connor Barwin is more than ready to take over. Still learning the DE position on the fly, the former tight end flashed some great athleticism and a lightning-quick burst around the edge. Barwin should see more time as the nickel pass rushing end, with Smith perhaps sliding inside, after notching 3.5 in limited duty as a rookie. After the top three ends the cupboard is bare.
LB: The good news is that the Texans have the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year in Brian Cushing on the strong side, next to a former winner of that award, Demeco Ryans, in the middle. The bad news is that Cushing will miss the first four games due to his league suspension for performance enhancing drugs, and Ryans is not the impactful force that he is often regarded as being by most people.
Cushing was simply marvelous as a rookie, one of the best and most dynamic defensive players to enter the league in years. He led the team in tackles (134), INTs (4), tackles for loss (13.5), and forced fumbles (3), while finishing 2nd in sacks (5) and passes defended (10). That gives you an idea of his incredible versatility and wide-ranging skills. He was precisely what this defense needed, an impact playmaker and a legit elite Pro Bowl talent, a guy that compensated for a whole lot of other shortcomings. Cushing has angrily and repeatedly denied using PEDs, but those allegations have dogged him since high school and caused several teams to downgrade his draft stock. It will be interesting to see how physical he plays when he comes back, but also how his teammates react to him.
I continue to find Ryans somewhat overrated in the middle. He?s an excellent tackler and very difficult to block, flowing well to the ball and quickly aligning the defense around him. Ryans is remarkably consistent, bagging at least 110 tackles each of the last four seasons and playing nearly every defensive snap. But he seldom makes the big play, something that guys with his physical ability and instincts should be doing regularly. In his four seasons, he is responsible for just 5 forced fumbles (the Texans have recovered just 2), 2 INTs, 6 fumble recoveries, 7.5 sacks, and 19 tackles for loss. Cushing almost equaled all that in his rookie season. I don?t mean to say Ryans is a bad player at all; in fact he?s a perfect interior complement to Cushing. But it?s time to get rid of lumping him in with the elite interior backers like Pat Willis, Ray Lewis, and Brian Urlacher. His skillful contemporaries are D?Qwell Jackson, David Harris, and Barrett Ruud--all very good players but not stars.
The weakside backer is the weak link, relatively speaking. That?s a bit of an injustice to Zac Diles, who is pretty solid against the run and plays bigger than his 6?0?, 240 pound size. He rarely gets caught out of position and is a very reliable tackler. Pass coverage is not his forte, but new acquisition Danny Clark and veteran holdover Kevin Bentley are both fair enough in coverage. Bentley is the primary backer off the bench, and he was a serviceable starter in his younger days. Flyweight Xavier Adibi plays some in nickel packages and generally holds his own, though his bigger mark is on special teams--no surprise for a former Virginia Tech Hokie. The team has tinkered with the idea of using 2nd year end Connor Barwin in place of Cushing while he?s suspended, but look for Adibi or 4th round rookie Daryl Sharpton to fill those shoes. Sharpton has a similar profile to Diles and could be a valuable pickup if he can handle the more physical NFL blocking. This is the deepest positional group on the Texans and one of the league?s better LB corps.
DB: It?s not often that a secondary can lose the player universally regarded as the best player and improve, but I have a strong suspicion that will happen in Houston in 2010. Corner Dunta Robinson hasn?t lived up to his press clippings or hype since his knee injury a few years back. The result of that overhype was that opposing offenses inordinately picked on the other CBs, who admittedly were not as skilled as Robinson and thusly got torched more than usual. With Robinson gone the workload will get spread around, which actually allows the coaches to mix things up more and present different looks and schemes.
Adding a major talent like 1st rounder Kareem Jackson will go a long way towards improving the unit as well. Jackson comes from Alabama, where he played under Nick Saban. I happen to think Little Nicky is an agent of the devil, but even I will loudly laud his proficiency as one of the best secondary coaches and developers of DBs in football today. That certainly shows with Jackson, who can excel at playing press, off-man, or zone and is physical enough to handle his business against the run as well. He enters his rookie year as the #1 CB and Texans fans should expect Jackson to make them quickly forget Robinson.
Second-year man Glover Quin will start on the other side after a promising but uneven rookie year. Quin showed very good ball skills, leading the team in passes defended with 14 (zero INTs however) and using his size and leaping ability nicely. He was also a major upgrade against the run at the spot, easily the most aggressive corner in run support in Texans history. The arrow is pointing up, and he and Jackson should form a very good starting duo for the next few seasons. That?s important because corner depth is questionable, though with several options. Veteran Jacques Reeves covers short-range passes well and is quick to make the tackle, but struggles the further away he gets from the line of scrimmage. Brice McCain will probably be the nickel back. He?s undersized and plays as such, but he?s got very good feet and is more reliable than oft-injured Antwaun Molden. 5th rounder Sherrick McManis has had a solid camp and will see as much action as he merits, perhaps some at safety as well if he can handle the physicality of that position. Fred Bennett is playing his way off the team after a strong rookie season in 2007, which should also serve as a warning to not get too overconfident in Quin.
Safety Bernard Pollard was an absolute gift from the inept management of the Chiefs, who couldn?t handle his vocal ?suggestions? on how to line up the defense. That loquaciousness clicked in Houston with a secondary full of young canoeists looking for a guide on the tricky NFL river. It helps that Pollard has solid range for a safety his size (6?2?, 225) and really lays the lumber, and he also has decent coverage skills. The Texans must be careful with his occasional truculence and missed tackles, but if he can score two defensive TDs again all will be quickly forgiven. Defensive Coordinator Frank Bush can only dream about getting another senseless discard to play with him, because Eugene Wilson is only average on his best days. The former Patriot lacks closing burst and doesn?t make quick enough decisions, though he does excel at finding RBs coming out of the backfield as receivers. Youngsters Troy Nolan and Dominique Barber are the reserve safeties and are not considered threats to usurping Wilson?s starting status, though Barber has had a few nice moments.
Special Teams
The last remaining original Texan, kicker Kris Brown, is locked in a camp battle with former Cardinals fantasy stud Neil Rackers for the PK job. Brown memorably flubbed two FG attempts that cost the Texans games a year ago, and his 11 missed FGS led the league. With the kickoff distance a push, this is one of the more intriguing positional battles in the league this summer. Expect the loser to wind up getting a starting gig elsewhere.
Other than Brown?s struggles last year the special teams are in very good shape. Ageless (technically he?s 42) punter Matt Turk continues to get better at hanging the ball higher and angling towards the sidelines, proving an old dog can in fact learn new tricks with good coaching. He?s also a great holder, a statement that will no doubt shock Redskins fans with long memories. Both Jacoby Jones and Andre Davis are accomplished return men, which makes the 6th round drafting of tiny Trindon Holliday puzzling. Holliday has struggled with ball security and offers nothing anywhere else, so he likely won?t make this (or any other) team. The coverage units are consistently top-notch, a tribute to Coordinator Joe Marciano, one of the best in the business.
3 Keys to the season
1. Winning close games. No team has lost more games by 7 points or less over the last two seasons than the Texans, who have dropped nine in that span. That is a sign of a team that doesn?t quite know how to win and a coaching staff that can?t help them do it. Both must change, or both will be changed.
2. Surviving the Cushing suspension. Brian Cushing wasn?t just the Defensive Rookie of the Year, he was the difference between this defense being okay and being very good. In a tightly bunched AFC playoff picture, every win counts. Four games without their best player is a tall task, especially for a team notorious for starting seasons slowly.
3. Focus on the division. Even though Houston notched their best win total to date, the Texans continue to struggle badly in the AFC South, going just 1-5 in the division with both Tennessee and Jacksonville having down years. They?ve only beaten the Colts once in their history. If they want to make the next step and advance to the playoffs, they have to win at least half their AFC South games, and hanging a loss or two on the Colts would provide monumental confidence.
Forecast
The Texans are a tough nut to crack. There is ample enough talent here is justify expectations of a playoff berth and double-digit wins, but a variety of factors play against those aspirations. A tougher schedule looms, with the powerful NFC East replacing the inept NFC West. Losing their top defensive force in Brian Cushing for a quarter of the season really hurts, but what also concerns me is that the Texans experienced very good relative health a year ago. Only the interior OL suffered any sort of injury woes, a run of good fortune that is unlikely to replicate in 2010. I?m also not sold on the coaching staff as a whole; Gary Kubiak was on his way to the unemployment office before a 4-game win streak to end the season against vastly inferior and/or apathetic competition salvaged his job. His teams have consistently underperformed and choked, and that won?t change overnight. I forecast yet another slow start, one that keeps them from achieving a repeat winning season. Houston finishes 6-10 and faces some major offseason questions.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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