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| Jeff Risdon. 25th August, 2010 - 7:03 pm
 2009 record: 11-5
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +2
Sack Differential: +8
Point Differential: +111
Coming In: T Alex Barron
Going Out: T Flozell Adams, S Ken Hamlin, LB Bobby Carpenter, K Nick Folk, OL Cory Procter
Key Rookies: WR Dez Bryant, LB Sean Lee, DT Josh Brent
In light of so few changes on such a successful team, I?ve changed the format for this one from the usual positional breakdown. Normally I use this alternate format with a split of five reasons to be both positive and negative, but with the Cowboys the split is seven positive and three negatives. Consider that a reflection of just how good I think this team will be.
7 Reasons for Optimism
1. The dominance of the outside linebackers. Demarcus Ware has been arguably the most valuable defensive player of the last five years, getting at least 11 sacks, 57 tackles, and forcing 5 or more fumbles every season during that run. He is a devastating pass rusher with a full bag of moves and countermoves, and he forces offenses to game plan around him. The 2009 season wasn?t his best statistically, but because of the emergence of Anthony Spencer, it didn?t need to be. Spencer stepped up and became a legit balance to Ware, taking advantage of the extra attention on the other side. The former 1st rounder from Purdue equaled Ware?s 29 QB hurries, though he only registered 6 sacks. He also made more tackles and made those consistently closer to the line than Ware. That sort of balanced threat takes this defense to a new level, and both are still ripe in the prime of their careers.
2. Jon Kitna. Seriously. A year ago I opined that bringing in Kitna as Tony Romo?s backup was the most significant development in Dallas. That?s probably overstated, but the veteran?s presence certainly helped Romo go from being a QB very good at putting up fairly empty stats and then choking under pressure to being a guy that can win critical games and take his talents to a new level. Kitna is just good enough to challenge Romo, and they respect each other. He provided Romo with an experienced, friendly ear--all those camera shots of Romo sitting by himself on the sidelines after a poor series, his hat on backwards and his face in a bewildered smirk, those all disappeared. In their place was Kitna advising him on what he saw from the sideline and how to make the needed reads and adjustments. Tony Romo is now a QB that has led his team to a strong December and won a playoff game. Certainly Romo himself deserves a great deal of credit for maturing, and an improved receiving corps and strong running game helped as well, but I give a lot of credit to a very savvy choice as his new backup QB. I also trust that Kitna could fill in for a week or two and keep the ship sailing, unlike predecessors Brad Johnson, Brooks Bollinger et al.
3. The deepest RB talent in the league. Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice are all eminently capable feature backs, but they (mostly) willingly share the ball in Dallas. Each brings something unique to the table, which gives the offense great versatility and adaptability. Barber is the between-the-tackles power back, and he lost weight this offseason to give him more explosiveness. He still fumbles too much and doesn?t always find the right hole, but he runs with a punishing physicality that makes him very difficult to tackle. Jerry Jones has hinted he wants more of Barber late in games, to plow through fatigued defenses, and the owner tends to get his way.
Jones is the perimeter speedster, a legit home run hitter with uncatchable open field skills. He?s the runner most reliant on good blocking and has never not been on the injury report, but his excellent hands and instant acceleration make Jones a major threat and a very different kind of threat from Barber. Choice sort of splits the difference between them, and his do-it-all skills make him a very valuable #3. Even though Jones is faster and a great receiver, Choice was the primary 3rd down back, and he also can take Wildcat snaps. He?s also the best back in pass protection.
I love the versatility and depth. If OC Jason Garrett so desires he can ride a hot hand, or he can continually alter the mix and keep defenses woefully off-kilter. They even have a decent fullback in Deon Anderson. All the backs appear to have sublimated their egos for the better of the team, which is a tricky proposition to maintain for another full season. The Cowboys had better be careful with it, but if they can keep everyone reasonably happy they are absolutely stacked at RB.
4. Defensive depth. The 2-deep across the defense is almost completely stocked with legitimate NFL talent. Not all of it is proven talent, but the Cowboys depth on defense is superior to most other teams. Other than losing Ware or NT Jay Ratliff for extended periods, Dallas is fairly well equipped to handle the inevitable injuries that have torpedoed many a promising season. Young players like Jason Williams, Sean Lee, Victor Butler, Josh Brent, Alan Ball, and Cletis Gordon don?t have a lot of experience, but they have shown enough to assuage fears. The secondary needs to get solid play from the starters or else the depth there is irrelevant, but I believe in the improvement of players like Orlando Scandrick and Mike Jenkins, the #2 and #3 corners.
5. Receiving options. I like that Jerry Jones didn?t get complacent about his receiving corps even after Miles Austin?s breakout 2009. Drafting Dez Bryant was a bold move, one that I think will pay off handsomely. He is a legit vertical threat, a vastly faster one than Roy Williams. Bryant has had his lumps already--the ignorance of rookie tradition, the high ankle sprain--but once he gets healthy he provides a missing dynamic, the fast downfield receiver with size and physicality. That will open things up for Patrick Crayton in the slot (where he belongs) and keep safeties off Jason Witten, the most effective receiving TE in the NFC. I expect Austin to fall back a bit, but between all these options and the good receivers out of the backfield, Romo should have ample ability to find open receivers all over the field. Even the depth players here, guys like Sam Hurd, Martellus Bennett, Kevin Ogletree, are better than the lower rung backups on most teams.
6. The destiny of destination. As you may have heard by now, Jerry Jones? billion dollar shrine to himself is hosting this year?s Super Bowl. No team has ever made the Super Bowl when played at their home stadium, even some very likely and worthy candidates. For most teams it has been a burdensome pressure, but I like the way Coach Wade Phillips and the team have handled it, framing it as an attainable goal and something positive and tangible. It reminds me of how USC treats the prospect of playing for the national title at home in the Rose Bowl, more of an expectation than a challenge. I don?t think Dallas will collapse under the pressure, should they make it that far.
7. The power of continuity. This is largely the same cast of characters that have experienced a lot of highs and some painful lows together the past few seasons. Key players like Ware, Romo, Barber, Ratliff, Terrence Newman, Witten, Austin, are all at or hitting the primes of their careers. They all know how to play together and have an easy chemistry that will help them through rough patches. Winning a playoff game last year built confidence and eradicated the gorilla off their backs. Look up at the ?Coming In? and ?Going Out?; Flozell Adams is the only starter they lost, and he was clearly on the decline. Keeping the whole gang together for one more run gives them a leg up early in the season, where they can rack up wins more easily and not have to fret a 2-game losing streak later in the season. Their fans might fret, but not this team.
3 Reasons to Worry
1. The offensive line. This is the thinnest unit on the team already, and the injury bug has bitten hard in preseason. RT Marc Colombo is iffy for the start of the regular season with a knee injury, which is a bigger deal for him than most because of his lengthy and extensive injury history. His replacement, Alex Barron, will miss the rest of the preseason with an ankle injury. Nobody was real excited about former Rams whipping boy Barron to begin with, but he at least offered some veteran experience as the swing tackle. If Colombo can?t answer the bell--a distinct possibility for at least part of the season--the staring tackles could very well be Doug Free and Robert Brewster. Free has developed into a reliable option after some initial struggles, but he hasn?t played the left side before. Brewster missed his rookie season on IR and has not had a strong camp. Behind them are a pair of rookies, Will Barker and Sam Young. I actually like Barker?s potential but he needs at least one year on the practice squad, and Young should not make an NFL roster, period.
The picture is little better inside. LG Kyle Kosier, the best run blocker up front, will be out until at least Week 5 with a knee injury. Montrae Holland takes his place, and he?s a journeyman hole-filler and nothing more. Pat McQuistan is the only other reserve with any NFL experience on the entire line right now, and he?s clearly inferior to Holland. With C Andre Gurode and RG Leonard Davis both 32 and ever so slightly on the decline from being above-average talents, the OL could be a major Achilles heel for what should be one of the best offenses in the league.
2. Special Teams. The 2009 draft was almost completely devoted to bolstering the ineffective special teams units. That strategy failed, as players either got hurt or just didn?t pan out. The new full-time place kicker is David Buehler, formerly the kickoff specialist--for a reason. Buehler?s leg is fantastic, but much like Tiger Woods breaking in a new driver, even he doesn?t know where it?s going half the time. The coverage and return units are underwhelming but also maddeningly inconsistent. Patrick Crayton can break the big return but is also a fair catch machine that often appears to be practicing a juggling routine. The team was 4th in opposing drives starting inside their own 20 but also gave up too many extra yards with poor tackling. They are optimistic that some 2010 rookies will upgrade the units, but that was true a year ago, too.
3. The schedule. It starts out fairly innocuous, though a trip to Washington to open the season is perilous. But as the season progresses, so does the degree of difficulty in the schedule. The final 9 games are @GB, @NYG, DET, NO (on Thanksgiving), @IND, PHI, WAS, @ARI (on Christmas Day), and @PHI. Divisional road games, especially in the NFC East, are never easy, and the other opponents except an improved Detroit team are all coming off playoff berths and figure to be in the postseason mix again. Even with what this team accomplished at the end of last season, they are still prone to late-season yips, and that tough slate isn?t going to help matters. Every win counts when playing for home field throughout the playoffs, and for that to happen Dallas will likely have to win at least 7 of those final 9 games. That?s a very tall order even for a team as talented as Dallas.
Forecast
For my money, this is the best team in the NFC...on paper. With all the key players back from last year?s successful season and so many of those key players in their primes, it?s hard to see Dallas not being a big factor in the NFC playoff picture. Getting there, however, will require managing a difficult schedule with a very iffy offensive line that could scuttle the whole operation. I have significant concerns about that happening, but I?m hedging my bet that they somehow pull through acceptably. Though I can see the Cowboys finishing 8-8 with that schedule, I believe Dallas has enough talent to persevere. The Cowboys win the NFC East with an 11-5 record and have a legit chance to play in the Super Bowl at home.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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