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| Jeff Risdon. 20th August, 2010 - 9:19 am
 2009 record: 11-5
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +15
Sack Differential: +6
Point Differential: +92
Coming In: RB Mike Bell, LB Ernie Sims, DE Darryl Tapp
Going Out: QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook, LB Chris Gocong, CB Sheldon Brown, S Sean Jones, WR Reggie Brown, WR Kevin Curtis, TE Alex Smith, LB Will Witherspoon, DE Darren Howard
Key Rookies: DE Brandon Graham, S, Nate Allen, WR Riley Cooper, TE Clay Harbor, DE Daniel Teo-Nesheim, RS/WR Chad Hall
Offense
QB: A major changing of the guard sees Donovan McNabb dispatched to Washington, replaced by Kevin Kolb, his understudy for the past two seasons. The Eagles brass feels Kolb is ready to assume the throne, but it's an awfully big chair.
I'm with coach Andy Reid on Kolb; I think he's ready to do just as much, if not more than McNabb. With all the young weapons, it was a prudent time to hand the reins to the young quarterback and let them ferment together. Kolb certainly has all the requisite attributes to succeed in offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinwheg's offense: quick decision-making, good arm with a quick delivery, exceptionally accurate to 30 yards. He lacks McNabb's deep arm and isn't as physically imposing, but where he will ultimately fail or succeed is based more on the intangibles than anything else. The expected 5% jump in completions, the expected uptick in yards per attempt, the likelihood of more sacks and a handful more interceptions -- none of that really matters for Kolb. It's all about whether he can handle the huddle and the intense spotlight of being the starting quarterback in perhaps the toughest city to play in around the league. Kolb has a markedly different personality from the outgoing, often bipolar gregariousness of McNabb. He's more pensive, more quietly confident, more likely to let criticism and failure roll off his shoulders instead of wearing them as badges of both honor and burden. That stylistic transformation of leadership and command of the huddle will be interesting to watch.
Michael Vick returns as the primary backup a year after throwing just 13 passes. Widely anticipated to be more heavily utilized as a Wildcat option, Vick never really melded into the plans. His legs remain his greatest asset, and this offseason the Eagles have been working on sets and plays that allow him to take advantage of that while using the threat of his arm to create more space. He's a toughie as a backup because Vick is the polar opposite of Kolb. Vick has struggled with accuracy and quickly making the right read his entire career, which means the offense would have to radically change with Vick thrust to the helm. That's why using him as a packaged threat makes sense. Rookie Mike Kafka has been mighty impressive since Day One and has perhaps earned the role of long-term reliever should Kolb get hurt. He comes from a similar collegiate offense to Kolb, favoring quick reads and excellent short-range accuracy, and has great mobility. But his best asset thus far has been his confidence and quick mastery of the offense. He has starting potential down the line.
RB: Another major changing of the guard sees Brian Westbrook gone, replaced by LeSean McCoy, his understudy last season. But the Eagles hedged their bet here, also bringing in powerful Mike Bell from the Saints. The hope is that a two-headed, more between-the-tackles oriented running attack will bring more balance to the offense and foster longer drives and better results in short yardage situations.
McCoy has a great first step and burst out of his cuts. He's also a very good receiver out of the backfield and improved at pass protection as the year bore one. The second year man needs to run with better patience and wait for plays to develop, as he often beat his blockers to the point and subsequently got creamed. That's not good for a guy with his slender build, though he has hit the weight room hard this offseason. Adding Bell should keep the wear and tear on McCoy to a minimum and also upgrade the short yardage foibles that have dogged this team for years. Bell comes from the Saints, where he played a similar role in what looks to be a similar offense. He was quite successful in the red zone, where his head-down charge and power works best. Bell is the classic fantasy touchdown vulture, so you fantasy geeks should be wary of McCoy. Leonard Weaver is a Pro Bowler that will handle the ball more than any other fullback in the league. He saw action in single-back sets last year and can also flare out as a receiver. He's not a great lead blocker but the Eagles seldom ask him to fill that role.
WR/TE: My how things have changed! Long a sore point, the Eagles are now loaded with exciting young playmakers that are capable of winning games. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson are a very skilled duo that could both eclipse 1,000 receiving yards if they stay healthy.
Jackson is perhaps the most dangerous receiver in the league with the ball in his hands. Short and slightly built, the Cal product is stronger than he looks and lightning fast. He bagged 8 touchdowns of 50 yards or more, and his quickness and acceleration make him a threat to score any time he touches the ball from anywhere on the field. He will drop his fair share of balls and he's a negligible blocker, but the Eagles will live with those deficiencies as long as he keeps producing big plays.
Maclin is bigger and faster, but Jackson's dynamism turned the Missouri rookie into something of a possession receiver. Effective at curl and hook routes, Maclin does a great job of presenting a target and reaching out to snag the ball from the air. He chews up cushion rapidly and glides into top gear with a smoothness reminiscent of Lynn Swann. There are durability questions and Maclin is not exactly Hines Ward in the blocking department either. He and tight end Brent Celek proved very effective at crossing and running tandem routes at different levels, a nightmare for zone coverage teams (see the Panthers and Giants games).
Celek has emerged as one of the league's better all-around tight ends. He has deceptive speed to stretch the middle seams, and he innately finds the holes in the zone. Celek also quickly clicked with Kolb, catching 16 passes from him last year in just two games. A young quarterback's best friend is always a good receiving tight end, and Celek is a good one. As with Jackson, however, he will drop some easy ones. Celek is an adequate blocker, better downfield than in-line.
Jason Avant is the primary slot receiver, an oddity because he towers over Jackson and isn't the quickest guy around. He functions almost as an extra tight end in the passing game, rarely venturing more than 15 yards downfield on his crosses and slants. McNabb loved throwing to him when blitzed, and Avant has just enough creativity to gain some yards after the catch. He is the sort of average talent that doesn't stand out but consistently gets the job done. Riley Cooper filled the same sort of role for Tim Tebow at Florida, and he takes his talents and beautiful hair north to Philly this year. He has sneaky speed but also great toughness over the middle, which makes him an ideal fit as the 4th wide receiver here. He has stood out in camp and blown past the competition for that role, and he has the ability to spell Maclin as the split end. That comes at Hank Baskett's expense, and his roster spot is in jeopardy. Kelly Washington has great size and has carved himself a nice career as a special teams ace, but other than a handful of games in Tennessee a year ago has accomplished very little as a receiver. Mighty mite Chad Hall will make it on special teams.
There is a good camp battle for the backup tight end spot, where rookie Clay Harbor and second-year man Cornelius Ingram are fighting for the spot. It's a fierce one because the team will not keep three tight ends. Harbor is a better blocker and can play some H-back, which gives him the leg up on Ingram, who is faster and a better receiver but has torn both ACLs in the last three years. Harbor is a converted wideout as well, which tells you how little the Eagles care about in-line blocking from the tight ends. That's great as long as the starting tackles play well and stay healthy.
OL: As with the wideouts, the initial reaction here is "My how things have changed," except here it has gone in the wrong direction. What was once a definite strength has turned into a sizeable question mark. Lingering injuries to center Jamaal Jackson and left guard Todd Herremans cloud their availability, and will almost certainly limit their effectiveness; neither has been cleared to practice as of August 15, and Jackson might start the season on the PUP. This is a significantly inferior team without Jackson, as the embarrassing losses to Dallas to end the season demonstrated.
At least the tackles are in relatively good shape. Jason Peters wasn't as good as hoped on the left side, but he still performed at a pretty solid level. On the right side, Winston Justice finally exorcised the demons of his horrifying debut a few seasons ago and turned in a very good 2009. Both are better run blockers than pass protectors, though Peters was one of the best blind side guardians during his Buffalo tenure. Both are big, athletic, and gritty. Peters struggled with 3-4 outside linebackers, which is a more pressing problem with Washington switching to that scheme, and he got away with a great deal more than the 12 holds he was flagged for (3 were declined). The big fella needs to keep his feet moving when engaged, something he remembers when driving a defensive end backwards but struggles to do when reacting to the pass rush moves. Eagles fans lamented Peters' poor technique all year, and they were right in doing so. Justice is one of the rare players that "does" it in a "do-or-die" year, but replicating his strong 2009 is no given. He was playing not just for a new contract (which he got) but for his NFL career. That motivation is gone now, and nobody was a bigger supporter of Justice's when he was down than McNabb. He's gone as well, of course. I think Justice will remain a quality starter, but I do expect a little regression. That might get balanced out if the interior running attack improves, however.
Herremans is one of the league's better left guards when healthy, but a severe foot injury cost him some time and prevents him from practicing or running out to lead the charge downfield. He played through the pain last year and arguably improved, so my worries might be overblown. The right guard spot is Stacy Andrews' to lose, which is exactly what he did last year. He's a poor fit for the Eagles' blocking scheme and some around the team questioned how hard he worked to recover from knee surgery. Andrews will either come out and silence the numerous critics or count his money and smile. My bet is on the latter, which leaves Max Jean-Gilles and Nick Cole battling for the job. Jean-Gilles is a giant that lacks agility and struggles with conditioning, though he's a lethal run blocker when paired with Justice. Nick Cole is a fine sixth lineman who was over his head when given the starting center job in relief of the injured Jackson. The team thinks highly of Mike McGlynn, who can only play center, so Cole will likely get more looks at guard, and expect him to see the field more in that capacity than most third guards. The depth is less impressive at tackle, where King Dunlap plays extremely upright and Fenuki Tupou lacks experience and agility. It's a bad sign if freakishly short-armed A.Q. Shipley makes the team.
Defense
DL: This group is almost freakishly deep and stocked with talent that blends well together. End Trent Cole is the marquee name, but all four positions have a two-deep chart of guys that could start on most teams.
Cole is one of the most effective pass rushers in the league, a Pro Bowler with 12.5 sacks and nearly 40 quarterback hurries and hits last year. Best known for his quickness, Cole also possesses a devastating under-and-up move with his inside shoulder -- just ask the Giants. Unlike most pass rushing 4-3 ends, Cole also holds his own against the run, though some of that is a function of teams generally running to the other side.
That other side appears to have a change at starter, as first round pick Brandon Graham has jetted past incumbent Juqua Parker on the depth chart. Graham is short but has a lot of Dwight Freeney to him, consistently displaying great leverage and explosive quickness while at Michigan. Graham is my pick for the rookie sack champion in 2010, and his run defense should be an upgrade over Parker. That doesn't mean Parker won't get a lot of reps though; expect a roughly 50/50 split in snaps, because Parker is also an accomplished pass rusher and excels at dropping in coverage on the ubiquitous zone blitzes. That aptly describes newcomer Darryl Tapp, who goes from being the primary pass rush threat in Seattle to nothing more than third banana here. Tapp has great speed for a 270-pounder and is adept at backside containment. It's a rotation that is the envy of the league and insures against the inevitable injuries.
Both Parker and Tapp can slide inside in nickel and dime packages, as can Victor Abiamiri, who looks to be the odd man out at end. The starters at tackle are Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson, who pair well together despite not combining to weigh 600 pounds. Bunkley is the stouter run stuffer and interior hole clogger, while Patterson is very quick for his size and attacks upfield with a 2-gap style. Only two defensive tackles (Kevin Williams and Shaun Rogers) have more run tackles for loss over the last three years than Patterson. Trevor Laws sees rotational time as an interior rusher, but don't take that to mean Patterson and Bunkley can't do that themselves. The late Jim Johnson and his successor Sean McDermott put a big emphasis on utilizing a deep rotation and keeping everyone fresh. This team will likely have to cut two or three players that will quickly get playing time elsewhere, because rookie third rounder Daniel Te?o-Nesheim and fifth rounder Ricky Sapp are going to make the team, though Sapp is a good IR stash/redshirt candidate.
LB: Philly is hoping a healthy Stewart Bradley in the middle will cure a lot of what ailed them in 2009. He was lost early in training camp and the defense never really compensated. Two years ago Bradley was a rising force, a tackling machine with good instincts and decent range. How quickly that range comes back while recovering from his torn knee ligaments remains to be seen. Even at 80% of his old self he's better than those who filled in the middle a year ago. Bradley is a downhill run attacker with the strength to shed blockers and the size to fill the hole with authority. He seldom misses a tackle or gets caught off balance.
One area where his return won't help is coverage, which was pathetic last year. Bradley doesn't drop well and doesn't have the shiftiness underneath, which means teams will likely once again attack the middle of the field with tight ends and crossing routes like they did with tremendous success a year ago.
The outside backers are both new starters in Philly. Ernie Sims comes from Detroit to take over the weak side from Akeem Jordan. Sims is a ferocious hitter and might be the fastest linebacker in the league, but that never really translated into great success in Detroit. Positional discipline is a chronic issue for Sims, who has zero patience and so frequently overran plays that some opposing teams (MIN, CIN, BAL) didn't bother to send a blocker at him and didn't regret that decision. I find his acquisition into this zone-blitz heavy scheme almost comedic, because his two poorest attributes are blitzing and zone coverage. His quickness and hitting will help at cleaning up runs, but this move is a regression in all other aspects. Moises Fokou takes over the strong side for Chris Gocong, a move that is based largely on how well Fokou tackled on special teams as a rookie last year. When Fokou usurped the role late last year the on-field results were basically indistinguishable.
Jordan is the primary outside backup and is the best coverage linebacker on the roster. Expect to see him quite a bit in nickel packages when the team isn't blitzing. Omar Gaither was lousy in the middle a year ago, and he returns to the reserve role where he belongs. He is coming off Lisfranc surgery, which will likely hinder his best asset, his speed. Fourth round pick Keenan Clayton, Tracy White and local boy Simoni Lawrence are fighting for the other backup spot, with squatly built rookie Jamar Chaney in that mix too. One thing that stands out about the linebackers is the size, or rather the lack thereof: Bradley is the only linebacker that plays above 230 pounds. It will be interesting to see how well that small of a unit can hold up in a division chock full of physical offensive lines and runners. Color me pessimistic.
DB: Asante Samuel and Ellis Hobbs are the starting corners, as the Eagles tired of Sheldon Brown and packaged him with Chris Gocong in a deal to Cleveland. That duo won a lot of games together in New England, but they were younger and better schematic fits as Patriots than they are now. Samuel remains the consummate riverboat gambler at corner, and he still hits his flush on the river more often than not. Few of his peers have his ball skills, and his instincts remain very strong. One area where he is severely lacking is tackling, which consists of diving at feet and half-hearted attempts to push guys out of bounds. He led all defensive backs in missed tackles in 2009, but this is not a new development and neither he nor the team appears overly troubled by his soft tackling. Hobbs missed eight games last year with a neck injury, which makes his ascension to starter even iffier. He has not been worthy of starting for several years now, and neck surgery isn't going to help matters.
The Eagles have high hopes for fourth round rookie Trevard Lindley to eventually take over for Hobbs. Lindley peaked early at Kentucky but his game is tailored to how the Eagles use their corners, playing an aggressive hybrid zone behind the confusion-causing zone blitzes up front. Tackling is not his strong suit either. Joselio Hanson is a good fit as the inside nickel back. He's undersized but his quickness and good feet allow him to match up well in the slot. Hanson is reliably awful when moved outside, however. Dmitri Patterson should beat out Macho Harris for the #5 spot, as he is better in coverage. Harris vacillated between corner and safety as a rookie last year, doing little to distinguish himself at either spot. He is competitive but lacks range and speed.
Strong safety Quintin Mikell is a bright spot. He's far and away the best tackler in the secondary (as the strong safety should be) with good range and quick instincts. Mikell is also solid in coverage, often covering up the ill-advised Samuel gambles on double moves. He's also got great timing on his blitzes, even though he failed to register a sack last year. Second round pick Nate Allen will win the starting free safety gig, a real sore point a year ago. I rated him as the best cover safety in a very deep draft class, and that has shown in camp. Because of all the blitzing, free safety in this defense is a more complex position than it is for most teams, and Allen will undoubtedly have some rookie mistakes, but the long-term prognosis is strong. Quintin Demps is the top reserve safety only because free agent pickup Marlin Jackson blew out yet another knee and is lost for the season.
Much like the linebackers, one thing that stands out in the secondary is the lack of size. Nobody stands taller than 5'10", and only Allen plays at over 200 pounds. Most units with that lack of size make up for it with great speed, but the overall speed here is only average at best. This puts heavy pressure on the sterling defensive line to control the line and get a great pass rush on every snap.
Special Teams
David Akers comes back for his 13th season at kicker, and the left-footed booter remains an asset. The leg strength isn't what it used to be, however, as his range now tops out at about 44 yards. Punter Sav Rocca is an average punter, though he did improve his hang time a year ago. The coverage units are strong across the board, and adding coverage virtuoso Kelly Washington will only help. Long snapper Jon Dorenbos is the best in the NFC.
DeSean Jackson is an electrifying punt returner, helping the Eagles lead the league in average returns by over a yard. He is a threat to take every attempt to the house, though he will eschew good judgment at times. The kick return unit struggled, especially once primary return man Ellis Hobbs went down. Rookie Chad Hall could take over that role, and he has shined in that capacity during camp.
3 Keys to the season
1. Handling the mass exodus of veterans. This is a much different team than two years ago, with at least 10 long-time starters turned over. The defense never really recovered from Brian Dawkins' departure, and now the offensive leader in McNabb is gone too. The leadership vacuum must be filled positively and quickly.
2. The changing offense. Kolb is a different kind of thrower than McNabb, Mike Bell is a different kind of runner than Brian Westbrook, and the line is bigger and less agile than in years past. It's incumbent upon Marty Mornhinwheg and Andy Reid to come up with new schemes that play to the new strengths seamlessly.
3. The defensive back 7. It's the smallest LB/DB group in the league and not very deep. Having the starters handle the pounding and remain in top form all year long will be a challenge.
Forecast
A funny thing happened on the way to writing this forecast. I sat down with the expectation of predicting a real down year for the Eagles, but the more I look at this team, the more I like it. I do have major reservations about the lack of size and depth in the defensive back seven, but I think this offense can compensate for that and win shootouts.
The schedule makers did them a favor, bringing their toughest non-divisional games (GB, IND, ATL, MIN) to Philadelphia and saving the easier ones (DET, TEN, SF, CHI) for the road. I expect them to finish 3-3 in the NFC East and to win six of the eight games above. That means two AFC South opponents, at JAX in Week 3 and home for Houston in Week 13, will likely determine the Eagles NFC playoff fate.
I do think it will take 11 wins to get a Wild Card in the NFC, and I think that's one more than Philly can manage with the questions on the offensive and defense. The Eagles begin the Kevin Kolb era with a 10-6 finish, one that will force them to need help to get into the playoffs.
-- Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
