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| Jeff Risdon. 9th August, 2010 - 1:23 pm
 2009 record: 9-7
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: +10
Sack Differential: -4
Point Differential: +130
Coming In: WR Anquan Boldin, WR Donte Stallworth, DT Cory Redding, QB Marc Bulger, S Ken Hamlin
Going Out: DT Dwan Edwards, CB Samari Rolle, DT Justin Bannan, CB Corey Ivy, TE LJ Smith, T Adam Terry, QB John Beck
Key Rookies: DT Terrence Cody, LB Sergio Kindle, TE Ed Dickson
Offense
QB: The man under the giant microscope in Baltimore is third-year starter Joe Flacco, who has been largely pretty good during the regular season and largely pretty awful in the postseason. Big, strong-armed, and confident in his delivery, Flacco has won a lot despite some limited receiving options. Now that the team went out and got him better weapons, the expectations on Flacco are elevated.
That may or may not be a good thing, but the signs are definitely pointing in the right direction. Flacco raised his yards per attempt and yards per completion despite throwing the ball deep less often. He also figured out that he?s not a very good runner, using his legs to buy time in the pocket instead of taking off for the sidelines. Flacco can still unleash the cannon, but where I noticed marked improvement was in his ability to put some more air on his deeper throws, making it a more catchable pass. He needs to work on his touch on shorter throws, something that many strong-armed QBs need to improve in their first few seasons. This problem was painfully evident in the red zone, where Flacco ranked near the bottom in efficiency and routinely bounced balls off, or launched over, closely guarded receivers.
It will probably be a pretty successful regular season for Flacco, which could include a vault into the top 10 passer ratings. But where he will be judged is in the playoffs, where in his last 3 games Flacco has thrown for fewer yards than Kurt Warner averages in 3 quarters. When the intensity has ratcheted up, he has been unable to match the elevation. There have been some extenuating circumstances--Derrick Mason playing with one arm, no need to throw in the romp over New England--but the poise and confidence that Flacco wears so well most of the time has been tangibly absent in his playoff games.
Marc Bulger enters the picture as the veteran mentor and backup, hoping to revive his career after an unceremonious departure from the Rams. He?ll have to beat out Troy Smith, the subject of numerous off-season trade rumors. Smith is younger and significantly more mobile, but Bulger has shown great accuracy and touch when given a competent offensive line. Smith once had the starting job ahead of Flacco before a nasty illness, and the odds are strong that if Bulger shows he?s got something left, Smith will be trade bait. Worst 2nd round draft pick ever (Miami in 2007) John Beck was dealt away for camp special teams fodder.
RB: I am not a fantasy football guy by any means, but if you must pick at me for one bit of fantasy advice, here goes: Ray Rice will be the top scoring fantasy RB in 2010. That might seem counterintuitive with the emphasis on improving the passing game, but I believe that will only help Rice get more room to operate.
Rice has emerged as such a potent threat for a few reasons. He?s short but blessed with incredible balance and understands how to use his lack of stature as an asset. Rice changes speeds effectively and cuts off his blocks expertly. He is a very good receiver, and nobody transitions from receiver to runner better. He comes up big when the team needs it, averaging almost 7 yards per carry on 3rd down. The biggest downer to his fantasy value is that he netted just eight total TDs last year, but I expect that to double.
Some of that projection is based on a likely smaller role for Willis McGahee, who got the majority of the red zone work a year ago. That?s not an indictment of on McGahee, who was quite successful in that capacity, but football history tells us that runners with McGahee?s plowhorse style simply don?t last long with that sort of proficiency. The veteran RB employed a more physical style of running last year, often lowering his shoulder and ramming forward instead of trying to avoid contact. It was effective, but it makes him redundant with FB LeRon McClain, who is bigger and stronger. McClain had a monster season in that capacity in 2008, and he is cheaper and fresher than McGahee. Because he is also an accomplished blocker, McClain won?t get a great deal of carries, but the team likes to use him as a sledgehammer late in games to salt away a victory, and he seldom lets them down.
WR/TE: Signing Anquan Boldin finally gives the Ravens a legit receiving duo that can scare defenses. He and veteran Derrick Mason should make a very effective combination, with Boldin working the middle and Mason operating outside the hashes. Nobody works the middle better than Boldin, who plays with a rare physicality for a wideout. That physicality has cost him a host of injuries and missed ballgames, but his toughness is unquestioned. He?s also a plus blocker, a nice bonus for a receiver that will reliably catch 80 or so balls and come close to leading the league in yards after the catch. It will be interesting to see how he?s used without having Larry Fitzgerald on the other side to draw attention away, and Joe Flacco?s accuracy isn?t in the same ballpark as Kurt Warner?s pinpoint darts.
He might not be Larry Fitzgerald (who is?!?) but Derrick Mason still has some gas left in the tank at age 36. The wheels are still rolling nicely, and his body positioning and footwork on routes is still exemplary. There is always concern for an aging wideout with chronic shoulder issues, but getting Boldin to handle more of the over-the-middle routes should keep Mason healthy and productive. Don?t expect another 75 catch season, but that?s a good thing for this offense.
The wild card here is Donte Stallworth. Speedy and able to get consistent separation on deep routes, Stallworth comes to the Ravens with a lot of baggage. He missed 2009 on a DUI manslaughter conviction, and prior to that he bounced from team to team with the reputation of being soft and failing to live up to expectations. Those close to him attest to a newfound maturity, which could allow him to finally realize his first-round potential all those years ago. The Ravens will take whatever they can get, because the #3 wideout role has long been a black hole. Baltimore believes they found a gem in 5th round draft pick David Reed, the star of minicamps. If Stallworth struggles or one of the starters gets hurt, he?s next in line. Don?t expect anyone else currently on the roster to catch more than 10 balls--and that?s true even in Boldin and/or Mason miss extensive time.
A lot of that missing WR slack gets picked up by the tight ends. Todd Heap is coming off his best season in years, largely a function of his health. He is in great shape heading into 2010, which likely means an increase over his 53 catches and 593 yards of year ago. Just as integral to his pass catching is his run blocking ability, where he has developed into one of the better tight ends in the league after struggling in his early years. Heap is also the master of the chip and release; one opposing defensive coordinator told me they are relieved when he splits out so their DE doesn?t have to deal with him. 3rd round rookie Ed Dickson is more like an oversized receiver, and was highly productive in that capacity at Oregon. He did show decent blocking technique during Senior Bowl workouts and has a willing mentor in Heap, but expect him to be the flexed-out tight end functioning as the middle of the field stretcher. Another rookie, 4th rounder Dennis Pitta, is BYU?s all-time leading receiver but somewhat redundant with the faster, younger Dickson here.
OL: Young, deep, and skilled, Baltimore is stacked up front. Give GM Ozzie Newsome credit for having a wonderful eye at identifying OL talent and finding players that can blend together well. Those two don?t always go hand in hand, but the line here is quite good and functions as a unit that is better than the sum of its very talented parts.
Two of those parts are changing positions, with tackles Michael Oher and Jared Gaither swapping sides. Oher assumes his destiny by taking over The Blind Side after largely exceeding expectations on the right side as a rookie last year. The pass blocking should be a wash, but Oher thrived as a run blocker and that will help balance the running game, which was decidedly right-handed a year ago. Oher is a rising star that could garner Pro Bowl attention. Gaither has been up and down, and he is my biggest concern up front. Nearly traded because of delusional contract demands and a questionable work ethic, Gaither dominates at times but is prone to breakdowns in his technique. He?s also coming off an injury that cost him several games. Big youngster O?Neil Cousins played reasonably well and could push Gaither for the starting job. Failing that, he provides a very talented backup swing tackle with legit starting potential. Coach Harbaugh has gone out of his way to praise late-round rookie Ramon Harewood, who is likely a practice squadder this year but has some intriguing potential down the line.
Baltimore is quite strong up the gut, led by center Matt Birk. Despite being the only starter up front over the age of 30 and being discarded by the Vikings as on the downside, Birk performed admirably in his first season with the Ravens. He almost never misses a line call or adjustment, and he still has the quickness to fire out and get leverage as well as any center in the league. He?s not the mauler he used to be in run blocking but remains above average. The guards, Ben Grubbs and Marshal Yanda, are both tough and smart. Grubbs is the better run blocker and can effectively get out to the second level; Yanda meshes quite well with Birk in pass protection. Chris Chester is a quality backup with some experience, and the team is quite high on backup G/C David Hale, who brings menace and more grit inside.
Defense
DL: The answer to Clara Peller?s plaintive ?Where?s the Beef?? is the Baltimore Ravens defensive line. In Haloti Ngata, Kelly Gregg, and Trevor Pryce, the Ravens feature a trio of starters that often dominates the line of scrimmage. Gregg and Ngata patrol the middle, interchangeably as tackles in a standard 4-3 or as anything from 5-techniques to nose tackles in odd fronts. Teams simply cannot run between the tackles with those two there, and whatever happens to leak through quickly gets snuffed by Ray Lewis and Dawan Landry. Ngata is a freakish athlete for his 340+ pound bulk, quick and light on his feet. He has the uncanny ability to get his shoulders through the gap before the blocker(s) can get their hands on him, and his bull strength allows him to blow through them if needed. There is concern about his health after Ngata tore a pec in the Pro Bowl, but he should be ready for the regular season.
Gregg is more of the ?immovable object? style, but don?t mistake that for a lack of athletic ability. He excels at slipping off the block and helping make the tackle at or very near the line of scrimmage. Pryce led the team in sacks last year (6.5) and has the ability to line up as both a 3-4 and 4-3 end on either side. Teams try to run at him, but he?s a solid run defender with good instincts.
The reserves will look markedly different in 2010. Dwan Edwards and Justin Bannan are gone, and they both played significant snaps. The team signed veteran Cory Redding to play end, but he has been very ordinary since his one great season in Detroit 5 years ago. He should fit in the rotation well enough here, but he is not as good as the man (Edwards) he is replacing. Rookie Terrence Cody is most certainly huge and will serve as the backup nose tackle. If he took care of his conditioning he would have been at worst a top 15 draft pick, but his stamina is severely limited and he reported to camp even heavier than expected for a guy who typically played in college somewhere around 365 pounds. He will spot the starters inside and the run defense shouldn?t suffer, but he likely won?t get into the backfield the way the starters do. Another rookie, Arthur Jones, could be a pleasant surprise contributor if he can stay healthy.
LB: When you think of the Ravens defense, you can?t help but think of Ray Lewis. The future Hall of Famer is still the face of the franchise and the heart and soul of the defense. He?s lost some of his range and is increasingly easier to block, but he can still lay the lumber with the best of ?em and his instincts are still top notch. Lewis starts in the middle but has freedom to line up pretty much wherever he pleases, an asset that allows for the presentation of various fronts and coverage schemes. Expect to see less of Lewis in obvious passing downs, as his cover skills have slipped. He?s still a major threat moving forward and his passion and leadership remain legendary and effective.
Dannell Ellerbe should win the other starting inside job, and his primary function is coverage. Undersized but quick and fluid, he excels at identifying the right read and providing safety-esque coverage. He will battle in camp with Tavares Gooden, who just might be better in coverage but lacks aggressiveness in run support. Ellerbe is also better at sniffing out and cleaning up screens and draws. Jameel McClain offers much more size and thump, and his role as a hybrid ILB/OLB pass rusher could grow in 2010, particularly if the OLBs struggle to generate pressure again.
Those OLBs are aging but still eminently viable starters. Jarrett Johnson and Terrell Suggs are quite good complements to Lewis and the DL. Johnson is the Swiss Army knife, able to cover, blitz, stuff the run inside the tackles, and line up all over the place. His 6 sacks last year are his only noteworthy numbers, but it?s his quality all-around play that doesn?t show up on the stat sheet that really makes this defense work. Suggs bulked up to help improve his run defense, which he did, but it came at the expense of his pass rushing prowess. He showed up in camp lither and focused on regaining his status as an elite outside rusher. That is questionable, as he hasn?t had a multi-sack game since Week 3 of 2008 and no longer has the initial burst that made him so lethal earlier in his career. If Suggs continues to decline, expect second-year 2nd rounder Paul Kruger to get more opportunities to rush the passer, something he did quite well in college at Utah. Rookie Sergio Kindle also figures into that mix, although a fractured skull suffered in an offseason fall down some steps makes his availability uncertain. It?s best to chalk up 2010 as a medical redshirt for their top draft pick. The depth beyond them is journeymen-in-training Prescott Burgess and Antwan Barnes, so health is a concern at OLB. That?s true of most teams, but because the Ravens start so many older players in their front 7, it?s more of an issue.
DB: This is the weakest overall unit on the team, and major injury concerns exacerbate those concerns. Three of the four projected starters had major offseason surgeries, and the depth is largely unproven and not near the level of the starters.
Ed Reed, arguably the best safety of the last decade, will likely begin the season on the PUP list with a lingering neck injury and offseason hip surgery. That means he misses at least the first six games, if he returns at all. Those are debilitating injuries for a player like Reed, who forged his Hall of Fame credentials on being recklessly athletic and rangy. Even though his range and hitting declined somewhat, opposing QBs still respect him and opposing wideouts still fear him. Without him playing centerfield, that respect and fear is gone and more ways to attack the Ravens suddenly present themselves. The team signed veteran Ken Hamlin to fill in, but as any Cowboys fan can tell you, his play has rapidly declined the last two seasons. Tom Zbikowski brings more value on special teams, but he enters camp slightly ahead of Hamlin because of his effort and better nose for the ball. Dawan Landry is the other starter, and he fills the gaps in Lewis? wake against the run nicely. He gets his hands on a lot of balls but is not noted for being all that great in coverage. A healthy return by Haruki Nakamura would bolster the depth (and the special teams) but the Elyria (OH) native has struggled to stay healthy in his short career.
At corner, both Ladarius Webb and Fabian Washington are coming off serious knee operations. Webb is a rising star, the closest thing the Ravens have had to a shutdown corner since Chris McAllister?s heyday. He still hasn?t been cleared for full practice once training camp starts, and his game is built on speed and agility. Webb is also the best corner in run support, which is more important considering the iffy status of the safeties. Washington continues to frustrate with his inconsistent performances. The speedster plays quite well for decent stretches of time, but will also go through bouts where you wonder how he even makes the team. That book on him wrote his way out of Oakland and isn?t likely to come up with a surprise ending, certainly not if he loses any speed from the torn up knee from last season. T0 his credit, Washington did play better against the run in 2009, appearing to finally learn that he is in fact allowed to fight off blockers.
Behind the two starters the picture is troubling. Domonique Foxworth tore his ACL in pre-camp conditioning and is out for the season. Chris Carr comes off his best season, where he primarily played the slot nickel, but he?s not as savvy as Carr and doesn?t make plays on the ball. Walt Harris will attempt to turn back the clock once again, but corners his age (36) seldom have much life left. He can still position himself well but the athleticism just isn?t there anymore. The bottom of the depth chart features marginal journeymen (Travis Fisher) or unproven youngsters (Cary Williams, KJ Gerard, Prince Miller). Considering Webb almost certainly won?t be 100% before Halloween and Washington?s inconsistency is unlikely to wane, pass coverage from the CB and safety positions is a pretty sizeable chink in the Ravens? armor.
Special Teams
This is the other primary area of concern, along with the secondary. There are camp battles all over special teams, from kicker (Billy Cundiff vs. Shayne Graham, expect Graham to win) to return man (Chris Carr and Donte Stallworth have the early leads) to coverage units, where almost every spot is open except backup LB Brendan Ayanbadejo?s (and he?s out for the preseason). At least punter Sam Koch is reliably consistent and knows the tricky winds of the AFC North stadiums. The coaches would quietly be happy if the coverage and return units ranked above 20th, which seems a tad optimistic. It?s surprising that a team with so many reserve LBs and great overall team speed could struggle on coverage, but the Ravens haven?t been really good in that capacity other than covering punts two seasons ago.
3 Keys to the season
1. Playing better against the good teams. Lost in the jubilation of making the AFC Divisional Round is the fact the Ravens won just one game against another playoff team all season, beating the perennially slow-starting Chargers in Week 2. They feasted on a weak schedule and lost several close games to strong foes. The non-divisional schedule looks significantly rougher in 2010, and if the Ravens want to achieve what many think they can they must do better than 1-6 against playoff teams in the regular season.
2. Pass defense improvement. The embattled secondary returns with no fresh help, and major health questions dog safety Ed Reed, far and away the best player. An improved pass rush would help out, but the Ravens did little to address that either. The players must play better, plain and simple.
3. The progress of Joe Flacco. All excuses are gone now that GM Ozzie Newsome has given him ample weaponry. Flacco must take the next step and show he can play big in big games, and demonstrate more consistency overall.
Forecast
We?ll know a lot about these Ravens by how well they manage their early schedule, as four of their first six games find them on the road against potential AFC playoff teams: NYJ, CIN, PIT, and NE with home dates against CLE and DEN sprinkled in. They also find difficult roadies at Houston and Atlanta and home dates against New Orleans and Miami. That schedule sure makes an improvement over last season?s 9-7 seem daunting, even with the upgrades in the passing game. I worry that their secondary and special teams units will have trouble protecting leads. But I also love the running offense and the defensive front seven, and I think Anquan Boldin and a healthy Todd Heap gives Joe Flacco enough cause for improvement that the Ravens can overcome. Baltimore finishes solidly in the AFC playoffs with a 10-6 record.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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