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| Jeff Risdon. 26th July, 2010 - 9:56 am
 2009 record: 10-6
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: even
Sack Differential: +5
Point Differential: +14
Coming In: WR Antonio Bryant, WR Matt Jones, K Mike Nugent, K Dave Raymer, S Gibril Wilson, CB/RS Adam Pacman Jones
Going Out: K Shayne Graham, WR Laveranues Coles, TE JP Foschi, RB Larry Johnson, FB Jeremi Johnson, DT Shaun Smith, G Jason Shirley
Key Rookies: TE Jermaine Gresham, DE Carlos Dunlap, WR/KR Jordan Shipley
Offense
QB: This is a huge year for Carson Palmer?s career. Since his devastating knee injury in the 2005 playoffs, he has not been anywhere near an elite QB, a status which is still inexplicably commands from far too many. The elbow injury a couple years back certainly didn?t help, but there is no question Palmer has been anything other than mediocre for the past 3-4 seasons. With the strong OL and afforded the best running attack of his tenure, Palmer slogged through a season where he finished behind Jason Campbell and Kyle Orton, two QBs that their teams felt the need to replace this offseason, in both QB rating and TD passes.
That?s not to say Cincinnati?s faith in Palmer is not without merit. He?s a great leader and his toughness and tenacity are invaluable to the franchise. He still has the golden-boy arm that made him the #1 overall pick once upon a draft, and he erased doubts about his mobility with some nifty footwork and improved bounce to his step last year. The in-house theory, reflected both in the draft and free agency, is that Palmer will thrive once again with better weaponry. I know it?s oxymoronic, but color me skeptically optimistic on Palmer.
Journeyman JT O?Sullivan is the primary backup. He has a surprising amount of experience and has shown some ability, but there is a reason he rarely lasts longer than 9 months in one spot. O?Sullivan could capably spell Palmer and run the offense for a half or so, but as a long-term fill-in I suspect the team would look elsewhere. Jordan Palmer, who has little in common with big brother Carson other than lineage, holds the clipboard and effectively serves as a sounding board.
RB: Cedric Benson proved a godsend in 2009, and the pressure is on to replicate his breakout performance. Running with confidence and an aggressiveness that never materialized during his star-crossed Bears tenure, Benson proved reliable and remarkably productive; just 11 of his 301 carries failed to gain at least 2 yards, though he seldom broke any longer than 20. That kind of grinding, churning yardage demoralizes defenses and really allows the OL to get into a groove. He did miss two games with a hip injury, and, as any Chicagoan can tell you, Benson doesn?t have the track record of being reliable or tough--either physically or mentally. Getting arrested for an assault charge doesn?t help his case, though it probably ensures him a longer leash in Cincinnati.
Larry Johnson worked nicely as a fill-in, but he left just as quickly as he came. Brian Leonard is primarily a 3rd down back, a hybrid FB/RB that does all the little things well but lacks explosiveness and vision with the ball. Bernard Scott is sort of the opposite of Leonard. The second-year blazer has amazing speed and burst, but he almost invariably goes down on first contact and really struggled in all facets of the passing game. Fui Vakapuna takes over as the primary fullback, which means he?ll play about 30% of the snaps and won?t get more than 5 touches.
WR/TE: Last year, this positional group was a major disappointment, as anyone who witnessed the two Jets games can attest. That has led to a reshuffling around Chad Ochocinco, who spent most of 2009 double- and triple-teamed. The hope is that some fresh help will allow Ochocinco to strut his stuff and help Carson Palmer get his groove back.
Ochocinco had a modest 2009, as modest as someone who changes his name to a grammatically incorrect figure and stars in two reality shows can have. His 72 catches for just over 1000 yards wasn?t great, but considering how little his supporting cast helped, Ocho was muy bueno. He?s still one of the best in the league at intermediate routes, running hooks and slants and finding the flat spots just behind the linebackers in the zone. Ocho isn?t as great at running after the catch any more, and last year proved he isn?t a great #1 without at least a passable #2. His antics certainly rub some people the wrong way, but I?ve found most of his teammates know he?s 100% business when he needs to be, and he and Palmer are as strangely codependent as any QB-WR tandem in the league.
It?s the rest of the receiving corps that will make or break the passing offense. Laveraneus Coles flopped, Chris Henry was hurt and then tragically died, and the young wideouts just have not developed as fast as needed. Antonio Bryant replaces Coles as the prime free agent acquisition, which adds speed and physicality at the expense of dependability and character. Bryant has a nasty habit of alternating between very good and very bad years, and 2010 fits into the former column. The Bengals desperately need the even-season, wonderful Bryant and not the guy that didn?t catch half the balls thrown his way, or the guy who wouldn?t talk to his QB on the sideline, or the guy who half-assed all routes under 15 yards. I suspect he?ll find the culture welcoming and will produce around 60 catches for over 1000 yards, but that?s far from a certainty with his truculent track record.
Andre Caldwell hopes to get back to his early season heroics, when he scored some key TDs and made lots of fantasy owners happy. His play dropped off dramatically as the season progressed; Caldwell had just one catch longer than 12 yards downfield after Halloween. For a supposed field-stretcher, that?s not a good thing. Those numbers are characteristic of a slot/possession guy, but Caldwell isn?t strong at going from receiver to runner and hasn?t shown much strength across the middle. Incredibly overaged (he?s 25) rookie Jordan Shipley most certainly fits that description, provided he can handle the more rigorous and physical coverages of NFL DBs, which are indeed quite a dramatic upgrade from the Big 12 pass defenses of the past few years. Reclamation project (emphasis on project) Matt Jones was signed to help fill Henry?s shoes as the seam-stretching deep threat, though in his Jacksonville tenure he never showed any ability to make sharp cuts or track the ball in the air.
Some eminently recognizable NFL ?insiders? came out and said the Bengals signed Jones as a tight end, which speaks to his size. That info caught both Jones and Coach Lewis by displeased surprise in subsequent interviews, but the eminently recognizable NFL ?insiders? never mentioned that. Here is some ?insider? info about the rest of the Bengals WRs: Quan Cosby will stick because of his return man ability, though Shipley will probably beat him out for that role too. Jerome Simpson will have to make dramatic improvement to make the team, which is very unlikely. Big rookie Dezmon Briscoe will spend most of the year on the practice squad, but will get a look if the red zone passing struggles continue. Freddie Brown and Maurice Purify will duke it out on special teams, and the winner won?t have more than 3 catches unless a rash of injuries hits.
That rash of injuries happens to hit the Bengals tight ends all the time. In keeping with that theme, the team drafted Jermaine Gresham of Oklahoma, who missed all of 2009 with the very same knee injury that robbed 2009 draftee Chase Coffman of his rookie year. In fact, they had the same surgery performed by the same surgeon. Here?s where the red flag really gets raised, and where I once again question certain ?experts?: almost nobody thinks Coffman can possibly ever recover from such a devastating injury, yet most people go out of their way to laud Gresham and consider it a minor setback. Gresham blew out a knee in high school as well, and he was never as fast or sharp as Coffman to begin with. To be fair, he looked quite spry in early offseason workouts, and Gresham has as good of hands as any TE drafted in the last few years, plus an uncanny knack for getting open despite not being real fast or agile. Projections of 50+ catches for 700+ yards and 5+ TDs are way too optimistic, but if he gets even 60% of that Gresham will represent a huge upgrade and will helpfully alter the defense, benefitting Ochocinco and Palmer. Blocking is not his forte, though his blocking looks downright awesome compared to Coffman?s. Consummate professional Reggie Kelly will return for another campaign (he missed 2009 with a torn Achilles) where he?ll catch about 20 passes, very few of which will come beyond 5 yards. He?s a decent blocker and well-respected in the locker room as one of the very few Bengals skill position players that hasn?t been arrested in the last decade. Sadly that is not hyperbole.
OL: This unit has quietly turned over personnel in the past couple of seasons, and OL Coach Paul Alexander has forged a solid young line that keeps improving. The standout is giant LT Andrew Whitworth, who looks much bigger in person than his 6?7?, 325 pound listing. Whitworth has quick feet for his size and effectively walls off the outside, though he can be slow to pick up blitzes. He is a devastating run blocker with great pad level and genuine hostility. Whitworth does his fair share of holding, and will get beat on twists and quick inside moves, but he has vastly outplayed expectations from when he transitioned from guard to guarding Palmer?s blind side.
Andre Smith appears ready to take over on the right side, after a prolonged holdout and a foot injury washed out most of his rookie season. The first round pick earned that status with his devastating run blocking prowess at Alabama, where he routinely engulfed anyone and everyone in his path. Smith looked slow and tentative in pass protection in limited duty last year, but a full summer of Alexander (he?s the best in the business) can only help. Dennis Roland was okay as the starting RT last year, but the team clearly expects improvement by transitioning to Smith. Roland does quite well when the Bengals go heavy and use three tackles, something they did an average of 6 times per game. Expect to see more of Roland in that capacity, as they still lack anything close to resembling a blocking TE. Anthony Collins is a serviceable backup tackle, and the Bengals think enough of him that they rebuked several trade inquiries about Collins.
RG Bobbie Williams is the heart and soul of the line, the only linemen over age 28. He agreed to a new deal in the offseason, which eased a lot of concern about line cohesion. Much like the starting tackles, Williams is huge (6?4?, 340) and plays with snarl. Much like the tackles, he?s a better run blocker, though his pass protection against opposing DTs is just fine; blitzers and 3-4 OLBs coming inside gave him issues. The LG position is up for grabs, with holdovers Ethan Mathis and Nate Livings waging a camp battle. Of course that was true last season and they wound up sharing the spot, which could happen again. One to watch in camp: rookie Otis Hudson, who is raw but more physical. Kyle Cook was a monumental improvement at center, where the team had been lousy for years. He was singled out by all sorts of teammates and coaches as a big reason for the impressive turnaround, and Coach Alexander believes he?ll be a Pro Bowler in 2010. I wouldn?t go that far, not with Cook?s iffy pass protection against 3-4 fronts, but the Michigan State product is certainly a rising talent.
Defense
DL: The Bengals deploy a rotation that isn?t sexy but generally does a very good job. Domata Peko is finally becoming known as much for his very good run defense as is he for his crazy head of hair. He?s quick on his feet and very difficult to lock up for blockers. His meager tackle numbers (23 total) underestimate his worth, but it was on full display in the two ugly losses to the Jets, where New York ran at will. Tank Johnson is one of the character reclamation projects gone right, emerging as a solid leader and reliable-if-unspectacular plugger in the middle of the line. He is the only interior lineman that is a sack threat, and he is also quite adept at getting outside to defend screens. Pat Sims fits nicely in the rotation and is a very similar player to Johnson. Jonathan Fanene filled in at end last year due to injuries, but he is better-served as being part of the tackle rotation as well. 4th round rookie Geno Atkins will have to mightily impress to win reps.
Antwan Odom?s return at end is questionable. After racking up 8 sacks in the first 6 games last year, Odom tore up his knee and was sorely missed. He relies heavily on a quick first step and using sharp angles to get to the passer, which makes his knee injury problematic and potentially career-altering. The Bengals are hoping for the best but clearly tried to cover their assets with some insurance. He did look fine in early OTAs though.
I expect a breakout season from second-year end Michael Johnson, something the coaches are confident in as well. Tall and speedy, Johnson consistently improved as his rookie year bore on. Scouts (myself included) questioned his motor during the draft process, but the Georgia Tech product consistently played hard and showed impressive instincts when asked to play in space. That ability has led Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer to hint he would like to use some 3-4 front looks. This year?s second rounder, Carlos Dunlap from Florida, lends further credence to that notion. Like Johnson, Dunlap is tall but very athletic. He rated highly on my ?projected bust? list, but if anyone can make him useful it?s Zimmer. The club is hopeful he can provide more relief for starter Robert Geathers, who is also built more like a 3-4 OLB than a traditional DE. Geathers had about 30 ?close but no cigar? pass rushes last year, but his best value is backside containment against the run. Few ends are better at finishing off runners that try to cut back or bounce plays outside. Much like inside, the ends will rotate based on situation and who has the hot hand at the moment. The depth is a major and enviable asset even if the Bengals lack a legit Pro Bowl talent up front.
LB: This unit is merely solid right now, but it has the potential to be quite good. Dhani Jones is the epitome of the cagey veteran in the middle. He?s not the fastest or biggest MLB, but few can match his instincts, attention to detail, or prowess with the bow tie. Jones is very quick to diagnose the offense and call out adjustments, and he rarely winds up in the wrong place. He probably makes more tackles than he should, which is a reflection on the USC alums flanking him.
Keith Rivers has not yet met expectations as the 9th overall pick two years ago, though in his defense the Hines Ward jawbreaker that prematurely ended his rookie season stunted the growth curve. Rivers has yet to show the ability to attack and play downhill, content to merely linger behind the line and clean up any balls that might come into his range. The team would sorely like the speedy Rivers to make more impact plays and force more turnovers. They?d also like that from strongside backer Rey Maualuga, but he has a longer rope as he is just coming off his rookie season and his first experience playing outside LB. After a stint in alcohol rehab this offseason, the Bengals are hoping newfound maturity leads to more on-field discipline as well. Maualgua is as big a hitter as has entered the league in a long time (Ray Lewis?), and he plays with bad intentions. He struggled some with figuring out where he should be and where he should be going, but made enough tackles and provided enough toughness to show exciting potential. Reading plays quicker and reacting more north/south will help him realize that potential.
Brandon Johnson is the top reserve, assuming the team predominantly sticks with the 4-3 front. Johnson has shown a flair for making plays but also for being on the wrong end of the highlight reel. A more balanced performance would get him more reps, though he will still likely play more than either Rivers or Maualuga in nickel situations. Rashad Jeanty is trying to come back from a broken leg, and he could be fighting for a roster spot with undersized Abdul Hodge, speedy Dan Skuta, and 4th round pick Rodderick Muckelroy. Keep an eye on this battle during preseason, because the odd man out (probably Skuta) will be on the street for about 5 minutes.
DB: This group doesn?t get anywhere near the credit they deserve. The starting CBs, Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph, are as good as any in the NFL today. Both are former first-round picks that love to play the physical, press-man coverage favored by Coaches Lewis and Zimmer. Both possess great ball skills; each bagged 6 INTs and defended at least 19 passes. Hall is widely regarded as one of the best run support CBs in the league, and Joseph is no slouch in that arena either. Joseph is faster and needs less over-the-top help than Hall, while Hall remains one of the best blitzing CBs, though we saw less of that in ?09 than in prior years. Both are playing for new contracts, which is powerful incentive for another season of stellar corner play. They give Coach Zimmer the freedom to blitz and use his safeties more in run support, and their value to the team cannot be overstated.
The nickel CB last year was primarily Morgan Trent, but he will be challenged this year by none other than Adam ?Pacman? Jones. The star-crossed bad boy?s inevitable signing in Cincinnati is based as much on hope than anything he?s done on the field recently. Team President Mike Brown loves his reclamation projects, but Pacman takes the cake. Aside from his ?one man crime wave? lifestyle, Pacman simply wasn?t very good in coverage, and even worse at tackling, in Dallas. At one point Jones was a great ballhawk and very solid in coverage, and if he can stay out of trouble and turn back the career clock, this secondary is deeper and more talented than any other. Trent generally played well close to the line but his effectiveness waned the further he ventured downfield. Much like fellow Michigan product Hall, Trent is a savvy blitzer and solid tackler, and he has the upside of learning from his rookie mistakes. Rookie 3rd rounder Brandon Ghee has good size and could push Pacman into just being Returnman with a strong summer. Ghee appeared to peak early in his Wake Forest career, but he fits right in with the style and skill-set of his peers here.
The starting safeties will most likely be Chinedum Ndukwe and Chris Crocker once again. Both are big-time hitters that provide intimidating and aggressive run support. Ndukwe plays almost as an extra linebacker, and if you watched him venture into man coverage you?d think he was an undersized LB. Pass defense is not his forte, but young Ndukwe generally snuffs out yards after the catch quickly. Crocker is better at roaming the deeper realms, though he too is better closer to the line. Roy Williams, the original ?undersized linebacker masquerading as a safety? of the modern era, will also see extensive time if he can stay healthy, something he struggles with almost as much as he struggles in pass coverage. Widely regarded as the biggest coverage liability in any secondary in the league, Williams remains a thumping hitter and he knows Zimmer?s defense inside out. Veteran Gibril Wilson, who has played his way off two rosters after cashing in on the Giants Super Bowl win, gets another chance here to provide depth. In theory he is the best cover safety on the team, but in practice that remains in theory. Ghee could also see some preseason run at free safety.
Special Teams
After a nightmarish playoff experience, long-time kicker Shayne Graham is out. The clubhouse leader to replace him is journeyman Dave Raymer, who has a giant leg but not a lot of control. Mike Nugent is the primary challenger and a near carbon copy--big leg, iffy accuracy.
3 Keys to the season
1. How well Carson Palmer and the passing attack create a viable threat to stretch the field and score more points. That will go a long way into determining if Cedric Benson can pull off an encore performance.
2. Sack differential. Last year the team finished +5, but both lines must do more to increase that margin. Giving Palmer more space and time, while taking away long coverage responsibility from Cincy?s own safeties, is a huge recipe for success. If that number regresses, so will the win total.
3. Handling success. This team has never handled success well, failing to build on good seasons and quickly fading back to (at best) mediocrity. The talent is here to end that disturbing trend, but they must avoid the pitfalls that have derailed them in similar spots in the past. Easier said than done in Cincinnati, especially with their brutal-looking schedule.
Forecast
These Bengals strike me as one of those unfortunate teams that will probably play better than a year ago but see their win total drop. I don?t think Ced Benson will be as effective, and I still question Carson Palmer and the passing game?s ability to compensate. The underrated defense will keep them in playoff contention, and I expect that unit to finish near the top. If the offense can put up points, there is no question Cincinnati will be back in the playoffs, with a better chance of actually winning a game this time. But the schedule is quite ominous--just two of their non-divisional opponents finished below 8 wins a year ago, and another intra-divisional sweep is about as likely as Glenn Beck campaigning for Al Franken. Expect a lot of 20-17 and 24-20 contests, with Cincinnati on the short end more than they?d like. The Bengals finish 2010 at 8-8 in spite of a great defense and strong offensive line.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com
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