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| Jeff Risdon. 23rd July, 2010 - 6:10 pm
 2009 record: 10-6, lost in NFC Divisional Round
Key Stats:
Turnover Ratio: -7
Sack Differential: +17
Point Differential: +50
Coming In: S Kerry Rhodes, OLB Joey Porter, G Alan Faneca, G Rex Hadnot, K Jay Feely, LB Paris Lenon, QB Derek Anderson, CB/RS Justin Miller
Going Out: WR Anquan Boldin, QB Kurt Warner, CB Bryant McFadden, S Antrell Rolle, LB Karlos Dansby, WR Jerheme Urban, DE Bert Berry, OLB Chike Okeafor, WR Sean Morey, T Mike Gandy
Key Rookies: NT Dan Williams, LB Daryl Washington
Offense
QB: The Kurt Warner era is over, which means it?s time for Matt Leinart to finally step forward and take the reins. That makes Cardinals fans swallow hard and gives hope to the rest of the NFC West, based on a largely unimpressive first few campaigns, albeit in limited duty.
I personally still hold out hope for Leinart. I loved him coming out of USC and I?ve still seen glimpses of the guy that I believe was the greatest college QB of the last decade. The touch is still there, the vision is still sharp, the cojones are still grande. Anyone who has watched him pick apart zone defenses can see that. What he really needs is greater consistency, and I believe that being the full-time starter and working with the #1 offense all summer will help foster that. That?s not to say there aren?t some serious warts. Leinart?s arm strength is only average, and he tends to make it worse by using varying arm angles and throwing off his back foot. He?ll also take an exaggerated windup on deeper throws. The coaches need to clean up the mechanics, and it needs to stick right away. That is a highly debatable prospect, as Leinart is not noted as the most diligent worker. It?s pretty important that the lefty Leinart get off to a strong start and quickly gains the confidence of teammates that haven?t always respected his ?Golden God? persona.
The new backup is former Browns starter Derek Anderson, who is almost the complete opposite of Leinart. Big-armed, wooden-legged, wildly inaccurate, and almost freakishly reserved for an NFL QB, Anderson has parlayed five legit great games in 2007 into shuffling back and forth with Brady Quinn, a QB not unlike Leinart in skills. He simply throws too many INTs and misses too many easy throws to merit starting consideration, but he serves as a viable short-term alternative if Leinart flops. Having receivers that can get open and actually catch the ball (unlike, say, Braylon Edwards) could do wonders for his confidence and help raise the completion percentage to nearly acceptable levels. Anderson has always been streaky, and when he?s hot he?s a very good starting QB, but the other times can be painful to watch. 5th round rookie John Skelton, who strongly resembles Anderson--tall, big-armed, not real mobile--will hold the clipboard.
RB: In Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells, the Cardinals have a very solid young 1-2 punch that should continue to improve. They?ll certainly be given ample opportunity. Wells is a punishing bruiser that isn?t afraid of contact and knows how to take the hit and keep moving forward. Putting up 4.5 yards per carry as a rookie on a team that had been historically inept at running the football is no small feat. His do-it-yourself style fits nicely behind their line. Because he plays for Coach Whisenhunt, he is usually compared to Jerome Bettis, who ran Whisenhunt?s scheme so well in Pittsburgh, but Wells reminds me of another AFC North power back: Jamal Lewis. His shifty feet and stutter/stutter/boom running style mean he?ll get tackled for loss more than most other prominent backs, but he can also turn the two-yard B-gap power-G into a 15-yard scamper like Lewis did so well for years.
Hightower built upon a rookie season where he scored a lot but almost never broke runs longer than 4 yards with a much more promising 2009. Going from 2.7 to 4.2 yards per carry in the exact same amount of carries (143) is a great progression. Hightower is a very good receiver despite being built much like Wells, thick in the lower body and not terribly quick. He has great hands and understands where he needs to be, plus his pass protection is above average (save one bad series). Wells will likely get double the carries, but expect Hightower to keep his workload and post similar numbers to last year: 600 yards rushing, 450 yards receiving, 10 or so TDs. Having a reliable outlet receiver is a nice security blanket for Leinart, particularly since the tight ends here are underwhelming.
Jason Wright continues to confound announcers, who can never decide if he?s a quick fullback with good hands or a slow running back. The Cardinals will enter camp with Wright penciled in as the third-down back, but he?s just as likely to wind up in some sort of H-back role. Larod Stephens-Howling is 100% quicker than Wright and flashed good hands in limited chances. He is tiny and much more valuable on special teams (more on that later), which will probably keep Wright?s job safe. Nehemiah Brougton returns as the fullback, a seldom-used facet of the offense. His role could expand with the widely-anticipated move to a more power-running offense.
WR/TE: Larry Fitzgerald continues to put up amazing numbers and is arguably the best wideout in the game today. He is a major handful with his size and strength, able to free himself from the tightest coverage. His top-end speed isn?t elite, but he changes gears seamlessly and has an innate balance and suaveness to his gait. Few can highpoint the ball as well as Fitzgerald, and his hand strength is unmatched. It?s a great luxury for Leinart to have such a weapon at his disposal, as so few young QBs get a legit #1 wideout to work with.
His long-time running mate Anquan Boldin is gone, which means everyone else slides up a notch on the depth chart. For most teams, losing a talented bulldog like Boldin would be a major blow, but the Cardinals should be okay as long as Steve Breaston and Early Doucet can handle expanded roles. Both should be comfortable seeing more action, and Breaston was one of the best 3rd wideouts in the game. With the shift away from more multiple wideout formations expected, Arizona can handle the hit. They?ll miss Boldin?s toughness across the middle and his physical running after the catch, however. Doucet has flashed some of those skills, but he?s not the dynamic proven performer that Boldin has been for so many years. Rookie Andre Roberts should win the 4th WR role, and he is quicker and sharper than the departed Sean Morey.
One interesting thing to watch is the tight end position. Arizona uses their tight ends fewer than any other team, but that might have been a function of a deep receiving corps and trust in Warner?s quick release and vision. Ben Patrick is on the lower-end talent range of the new wave of physically freakish tight ends. He?s the only real receiving threat at TE, showing reliably strong hands. His blocking is inconsistent, but the Cards have Anthony Becht to handle the blocking TE role. Becht is more of an extra tackle at this point in his career, as he has just 120 yards receiving over the last 3 seasons, with no catches longer than 12 yards downfield.
OL: This unit will look different in 2010 after having the same 5 starters for almost the entire last two seasons. LT Mike Gandy is gone, and he?ll be replaced by former RT Levi Brown. That?s actually a backwards move for Brown, as Leinart is a left-handed QB. The Cards clearly don?t believe he?s ready to handle Leinart?s blind side, as Brown is a much better run blocker than pass protector. With Warner?s quick release gone, Brown simply has to improve at handling pass rushers or else the offense is going to suffer. It should be noted that Gandy has yet to latch on with another team even though there are still several tackle-poor teams, so the difference probably won?t be much.
One function of moving Brown left is that it allows mauling Brandon Keith to start on the right side. The 340+ pound Keith has scant experience, but in his limited regular season time and his preseason appearances he?s been a devastatingly effective run blocker. Given Brown?s relative struggles in pass protection, the bar isn?t real high for Keith in that regard, though having the blind side effect raises the stakes. With the stronger emphasis on running the ball with their power-style backs, getting Keith in the lineup is a nice boost. Veteran Jeremy Bridges will be the top reserve tackle. He?s better than either starter in pass protection, but not enough that it elevates him up the depth chart.
Lyle Sendlein had a strong 2009 at center, and he is widely considered an ascending talent. Sendlein excels in pass protection and has very quick feet, though he rarely creates much run surge. To help in that regard the Cardinals imported LG Alan Faneca. The perennial Pro Bowler slipped some in 2009 with the Jets, particularly in pass protection, but he remains one of the best run blocking guards in the league. A master of leverage and drive blocking while on the move, Faneca is an excellent addition for a team looking to increase the power running game. It should be noted as well that Faneca was much better in pass protection against 3-4 defenses (see New England and Miami, where he pitched 4 sack shutouts), which constitute half of Arizona?s 2010 schedule.
Right guard will be manned by the winner of a battle royal between newcomer Rex Hadnot, holdover Deuce Lutui, and perhaps even Reggie Wells, who was the starting LG last year. Lutui is the most talented of the group, but he showed up for offseason workouts about 50 pounds heavier than expected. Hadnot has a proven track record of being a solid if unspectacular all-around performer. Expect him to get the nod if Lutui can?t get in shape, with Wells serving as a useful swing backup. Giant Herman Johnson, all 6?8? and 385 pounds of him, will likely spend the season on the team but as a game-day inactive.
Defense
DL: The Darnell Dockett show is in full force, and that means trouble for opposing offenses. Insanely active and cat quick for such a large man, Dockett is one of the best disruptive linemen in the league today, a dynamic penetrator and finisher with a relentless motor and mouth to match. He has the strength and athleticism to play all over the formation and allows Coach Whisenhunt to vary the fronts and looks. Dockett is in his prime and is a legit Defensive MVP candidate, though the national media has not been quick to pick up on his excellence despite his dominating Super Bowl performance two years ago.
The Cards found him a worthy running mate in Calais Campbell, who leapt forward in his development last season. Campbell is quite tall with a great wingspan, and he figured out how to use his length to his advantage at end, extending his arms quickly and not just firing out, but up as well. He?s a nightmare to try to contain as a pass rusher, and he greatly improved his run defense prowess. Campbell also led the league in deflected passes by a lineman with 11 (Dockett was tied for 4th). The two ends flop sides, even lining up on the same side on occasion, and Dockett will play some 1-technique as well. They are the best pair of 3-4 ends in the league and are the key to the defense.
They would like more help from the big guys inside. To that end, the Cardinals spent their 1st round pick on Dan Williams, a behemoth from Tennessee who turned heads during Senior Bowl week with his power and agility. Cardinals fans are hoping the third time is a charm, because the prior attempts at using high picks on nose tackles, Gabe Watson and Alan Branch, have been failures. They are in a battle for the same roster spot as the top reserve nose tackle, although there is talk of Branch moving to end. Don?t hold your breath for either former Wolverine to make much of an impact. Veteran Brian Robinson can provide decent spot relief at any of the line positions, though at 36 he?s at the end of the line. Versatile Kenny Iwebema is a decent reserve. Don?t forget about high-energy Keilen Dykes, who missed last year with an injury. The West Virginia product has good base strength and very quick hands.
LB: Change hits hard here. The top playmaker, Karlos Dansby, never came to agreement on a new deal after two years under the franchise player tag. He?s now in Miami, and that leaves a big hole in the middle. Arizona will try to plug that hole with some combination of journeyman Paris Lenon and 2nd round pick Daryl Washington. How quickly Washington gets up to speed will dictate a lot of the lineup around him. He was excellent in coverage at TCU and showed some hard-nosed hitting prowess, but he?s undersized and wasn?t real quick to diagnose plays. Lenon washed out of awful defenses in Detroit and St. Louis, and at 33 he isn?t going to get any better. He too is decent in coverage, but if you see Lenon starting and playing more than half the snaps come October, it?s not a good sign. Gerald Hayes fills the other inside spot in the 3-4, and he is there for one sole purpose--blow up the run between the tackles. Hayes does that pretty effectively, but the question is how much of that was based on the defenses worrying about Dansby. This unit lost a lot of versatility, because Dansby would line up on either side, even outside at times. Hayes is coming off a back injury, which is never a sure recovery. Undersized Reggie Walker is the backup plan, though I know one Cardinals defensive coach has high hopes for young Ali Highsmith, who had a great game against Chicago last year but has otherwise been invisible for two seasons.
The outside backers also change, but we?ve seen this movie before. Joey Porter and Clark Haggans will be the starting duo, just as they were in Pittsburgh in the early part of the 00?s. Haggans quietly had a very nice season, bagging 5 sacks and 18 QB hurries despite often being the tertiary rusher. He?s solid against the run and does well in attacking downhill, often turning the play back inside to where the help is charging hard. Porter is still bombastic at 33, and his 9 sacks in Miami last year indicate he still has some juice left. He is almost exclusively a pass rusher at this point, but he still is a master of using leverage and quickly exploding off the snap.
Because of Porter?s limitations and the age of the starters, expect to see quite a bit of a pair of second-year players in reserve. Will Davis bagged two sacks in limited duty last year, and his size/speed quotient is impressive. Team observers report he looks much more comfortable at playing in space now, after making the transition from DE in college. Cody Brown missed his rookie year with a broken wrist, but hopes are high that the 09 second round pick will contribute a handful of sacks and better backside run containment than the team got from departed vets Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor. They essentially swapped declining (rapidly in Berry?s case) vets for young up and comers, and they?ll live with the growing pains in exchange for the increased athleticism and potential. Both could be starters in 2011...assuming there is football in 2011.
DB: Not many teams can lose two quality veteran starters and actually improve, but the Cardinals just might have done that in the secondary. The in-practice swap of Antrell Rolle for Kerry Rhodes is a boon for the Cardinals? run defense, as Rhodes is a much better tackler and more physical presence. Rolle is better in coverage, but not as much as you?d expect for a former corner. Then again the Cards moved Rolle from corner to safety because of coverage issues. Jets fans like to talk down on Rhodes, but two years ago he was their crown prince and savior of the secondary; he was simply a poor fit for Coach Ryan?s scheme. He fits much better in Arizona, where his responsibilities are more limited and they don?t run as much chaos in front of him. Rhodes is no slouch as a ballhawk either, as his 15 INTs in 3 seasons indicates.
He pairs with Adrian Wilson to form a potentially great safety duo. He is the unquestioned leader of the defense, both on the field and in the locker and weight rooms. Coming off a season where his coverage noticeably improved, he remains an extra linebacker against the run in a sort of ?rover? position (Buckeyes fans know what I?m talking about!). Wilson is one of the best blitzers and biggest hitters in the league and has earned his All Pro status despite playing on some shaky overall units. His size and proficiency against the run allow the Cards to deploy 3 safeties at times, which is quite helpful against more pass-heavy opponents. They are hopeful that 3rd safety Matt Ware makes a full recovery from a late-season injury. You want evidence of Ware?s value--watch their playoff games without him providing the over-the-top coverage support, when opposing punters didn?t need to take off their warm-ups. Ware doesn?t show up much in box scores but is the kind of reliable hand that good teams have and bad teams lack. Rashad Johnson flopped miserably in his stead and will need to make a quantum leap forward in year two or else he won?t get a year three. Hamza Abdullah was little better, but he?s bigger and less likely to mix up assignments.
Starting at CB will be a pair of talented youngsters. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (hereafter DRC) and Greg Toler are both small-school products that have proven they can play with the big boys, particularly DRC. He doesn?t get the publicity, but DRC ranked behind only Darrelle Revis in pass break ups last season, and his marvelous athleticism and great leaping ability make it very tough to complete a pass on him. He also snared 6 INTs and played better as the season bore on. DRC is an emerging star and a legit shutdown corner, though his run support could use some work. Toler is a year younger and greener, but he also has good size, athleticism, and swagger. Cards coaches had no problem letting solid veteran Bryant McFadden head back to Pittsburgh and promoting Toler to the other starting spot. There is some risk with his lack of experience, but he showed down the stretch last year he deserves the opportunity.
Michael Adams could conceivably beat out Toler, but he is better served as the third corner. Just 5?8? but full of pluck, Adams has trouble with bigger receivers and will get lost from time to time. Trumaine McBride washed out of a shaky secondary in Chicago but has impressed the coaches this offseason. He?s built very similar to Adams but isn?t as quick. Two separate observers told me McBride was the star of OTAs, which may or may not translate come September. Rookie A.J. Jefferson was highly regarded by some draft evaluators (not this one, however) and has much better size than Adams or McBride. I preferred another rookie, Ole Miss? Marshay Green, but he is redundant with Adams and McBride in this secondary. Justin Miller should never be more than a return specialist, though he can excel in that role.
All the starters are opportunistic and do a fine job creating turnovers, and that is a very real asset considering the opposing pass offenses in their division. Consider that the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all have very iffy passing attacks and potentially turnover-prone QBs (esp. if Whitehurst starts in Seattle).
Special Teams
Longtime kicker Neil Rackers decided to take his leg elsewhere, so the Cardinals continued their shopping trip of former Jets and signed Jay Feely to take his spot. Feely had one terrible game at a terrible time, but was one of the best kickers in the league the rest of the season. Kicking in the friendly confines on the portable turf should only help Feely.
That is really the only question mark on special teams, because everything else is rock solid. Larod Stephens-Howling was flashy but inconsistent as a rookie return man, lightning quick but not blessed with the greatest of vision. Where he really made his mark was on the coverage units, including one game where he almost singlehandedly beat the Titans with both a return TD and 3 downed punts inside the 5. Ben Graham benefited from those great cover units, but he also helps set them up with great hang time. He is one of the better directional punters still plying the trade. Calais Campbell does his best Manute Bol impression on field goals. He blocked only two but had a direct effect on kickers missing two others.
3 Keys to the season
1. The transition from Kurt Warner to Matt Leinart. Leinart is everything that Warner wasn?t, from the glittering college pedigree to the high draft status to the hand he uses to throw the ball. The Cardinals don?t expect Leinart to completely replace all that Warner did, but he has to perform reasonably close to that level if the Cards are going to win any playoff games...or even make it to one.
2. Winning the turnover battle. Despite ranking in the top 10 in INTs last year, the Cardinals finished near the bottom in turnover margin. They got away with that thanks to Warner?s explosiveness, but that cannot be counted on again. The offense must control the ball better, and the defense must continue to force takeaways.
3. Solving the 49ers. San Francisco is the only challenger in the NFC West, and the 49ers swept the Cardinals in a pair of ugly games last year. They don?t meet until Week 12, after the hard part of Arizona?s schedule is complete. Reversing the sweep in 2010 assures the Cardinals of another trip to the playoffs, but the gap between the teams has narrowed enough that Arizona probably can?t afford to drop both once again.
Forecast
No team lost more quality players this offseason than the Cardinals. How quickly and effectively the replacements can fill the void (particularly Leinart and Washington) is the difference between another playoff trip and a long, disappointing campaign. There is still a lot of top-shelf talent, and the offense appears well-geared to handle a transition to a more run-oriented attack. I still really like how Arizona matches up inside the division, and I respect the coaching staff enough that I don?t foresee the slide that so many people believe is inevitable. The early schedule is tough; after heading to doormat STL in the opener, the next 4 weeks are @ATL, OAK, @SD, and NO before hitting the bye week. As long as Arizona hits that bye with at least 3 wins, they should cruise to double-digit wins. I think that is feasible. The Cardinals repeat their 10-6 record from a year ago and win the NFC West, even with all the changes.
Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com |
