| Jeff Risdon. 10th September, 2009 - 5:22 pm
 2008 record: 2-14, last in NFC West
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -5, Sack Differential: -15, Point Differential: -233
Coming In: C Jason Brown, QB Kyle Boller, WR Laurent Robinson, FB Mike Karney, TE Billy Bajema, S James Butler
Going Out: WR Drew Bennett, WR Torry Holt, CB Tye Hill, T Orlando Pace, C Brett Romberg, S Corey Chavous, QB Trent Green, TE Anthony Becht
Key Rookies: LB James Laurinaitis, T Jason Smith
5 Reasons for Optimism:
1. The rebuilt offensive line finally provides the Rams with some long-term stability and skill up front. New center Jason Brown is a monumental upgrade, easily the top free agent lineman this offseason. The new regime of GM Billy Devaney and Coach Steve Spagnuolo set the tone early by quickly locking up Brown, then using the #2 overall draft pick on tackle Jason Smith. While I have my reservations about Smith, the Rams correctly used the pick to help rebuild the rotten core up front. With 2008 free agent signee Jacob Ford in better shape and feisty Richie Incognito finally facing a discipline-oriented coaching staff, this line has great potential. Factor in enigmatic (to be kind) Alex Barron moving to the critical left tackle spot in a contract year, and the Rams might have a unit that can let the playmakers make plays. It’s far from a certainty that it comes together, but at worst the unit is more talented and deeper than recent vintages.
2. For all the purging, the team kept two Pro Bowl-caliber talents in Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson. Bulger has his detractors, but few are as accurate or deliver a more catchable ball as the veteran QB. Given time to survey the field, Bulger still has it in him to be the franchise QB that earned a fat extension a couple years ago. He must regain his confidence and stay healthy--both questionable--but it’s rare that a team needing such a radical makeover already has a veteran franchise QB that still has a lot to offer in pace already. Jackson is probably even more integral to the success. With four straight 1000 yard seasons in a row under his belt despite missing several games and running behind a thin patchwork line, Jackson remains one of the premier running backs in the league. Big, fast, strong, and shifty, Jackson possesses all the physical attributes coaches dream about. He’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield who can do more than just flare out. Adding FB Mike Karney gives him a viable lead blocker to help Jackson avoid getting linebackers in the hole before Jackson ever gets there. I expect big things in 2009 for Jackson.
3. There are several young building blocks on defense for the new defensive-minded coach to play with and develop. Safety O.J. Atogwe would be a star and the focus of all sorts of hype if he played in New York or on a winning team. He is simply one of the best all-around safeties in the game. Big, rangy, and blessed with an outstanding football IQ, Atogwe is a playmaker in both run and pass defense. Second-year end Chris Long started a little slower than expected but showed consistent improvement. He’s not a dynamic pass rusher but should make an excellent complementary rusher that can also be bedrock against the run. His infectious energy and positive attitude are great assets for a team with nowhere to go but up. Rookie middle linebacker James Laurinaitis is an ideal fit for Spagnuolo’s defensive style. Fundamentally sound and exceptional in coverage, Baby Animal makes quick reads and knows how to finish his tackles. Some question his athleticism, but go back and watch how he played against Wisconsin or Michigan State last year, flying all over the field and chasing down RBs. Like Long, he’s not a dynamic playmaker (though he should force some fumbles) but Laurinaitis should be an above-average all-around linebacker and defensive signal caller for years. With emerging stud CB Ronald Bartell still having more upside to build upon a very good 2008, Coach Spags has a potential lockdown corner with great size and solid instincts. If he can start to turn more plays on the ball into INTs, he should be a Pro Bowler. With capable veteran ends Leonard Little and James Hall still viable pass rushers (Hall had an outstanding, eye-opening camp), and solid LB Will Witherspoon moving back outside where he belongs, the defense has several pieces in place to make a marked improvement.
4. In Josh Brown and Donnie Jones, the Rams have perhaps the best kicker/punter package in the league. That might seem a tad trivial, but in order to make a jump in the standings the Rams must find ways to manufacture wins. Special teams are a great way to steal victories and control field position. Jones was simply phenomenal as the punter, averaging over 50 yards per attempt with a net over 40 yards. He outkicks his coverage at times but with one boot Jones can dramatically change the field position. Brown has great range on his field goals and an above-average leg on kickoffs. Something else to consider: the opponents cannot maintain near-perfection on field goals against the Rams. Last year, other teams missed just one FG against the Rams and made a league-high 23 FGs longer than 40 yards; that’s more than one per game and marked the third time in four years the Rams have been in the top-three (or bottom-three if you’re a Rams fan) in that category. Playing in a dome obviously helps kickers, but at some point the luck is bound to change.
5. One of my favorite words of wisdom is the old axiom “when you’re in a hole the first thing to do is stop digging.” The shovels in St. Louis are shelved, finally. With ownership resolved, the coaching issues resolved, and the “Greatest Show on Turf” era finally put to bed, the Rams are ready to move forward. It might be hard for the Rams faithful to watch Orlando Pace and Torry Holt in different uniforms, but it had to be done. Severing ties with failed high draft picks Tye Hill, Brian Leonard, and Joe Klopfenstein shows the team is looking forward, not back. It might cost the team some depth and perhaps a win or two this year, but it bodes well for the long-term future and viability of the organization. The young players respect that and embrace their position as part of the future and not just guys filling gaps.
5 Reasons for Pessimism:
1. Just when you thought the injury bug couldn’t get any more virulent, down goes Adam Carriker before the season even starts. The agile defensive tackle was poised for a breakout season, but his loss means the defensive front will almost assuredly be a weakness once again. Injuries were a major culprit in the disastrous 2008, and already the Rams have lost their best DT for the season, their #1 WR for at least a couple of games, and the starting QB already has a broken pinkie before the season even starts. That’s not the right way to shake off the stigma of being injury-plagued losers.
2. The wide receiver position is a major question mark. With Holt gone, the #1 WR is now Donnie Avery, who is coming off an up-and-down rookie campaign. Small but very fast, Avery ideally projects as a slot receiver but instead assumes the X receiver role. If he can polish his routes and handle the physical rigors--both of which need lots of work--Avery has the talent to pull it off, but it’s a work in progress. Having no veteran mentor isn’t going to help. Keenan Burton and Laurent Robinson are the other two wideouts who will see significant action. I happen to like both of them to some degree going back to their drafts, but Robinson has 42 catches for fewer than 500 yards in two seasons in Atlanta, while Burton had just 3 catches during his rookie season in St. Louis. Atlanta gave up on Robinson because of his inability to handle contact, both during route running and run blocking. Listen real carefully and you’ll hear the “soft” whispers around Robinson. Return specialist Derek Stanley earned the #4 job in camp essentially just by being healthy. It’s premature to say it isn’t going to work, but this receiving corps scares no defenses.
3. The depth all over this roster is poor. The backup QB is Kyle Boller, last seen shredding his shoulder and cowering in fear of getting hit in Baltimore--just ask Jason Brown. Journeyman Samkon Gado and journeyman-in-training Kenneth Darby are the depth at RB behind Jackson, who has missed at least 4 games two years in a row. Up front is a little better, one silver lining of the rampant injuries the past few years. The DL is clogged with waiver wire pickups behind Clifton Ryan and Gary Gibson, who already form the weakest tackle package in the league. The backup linebackers and corners would be hard-pressed to make any other active rosters. While it’s unlikely the Rams will have the level of injuries of 2008, they really cannot afford any long-term injuries to starters at so many spots.
4. St. Louis faces one of the toughest starting schedules of any team in the league. The first seven weeks: @SEA, @WAS, GB, @SF, MIN, @JAX, IND. Divisional road games are never easy, and all the other games feature teams that have legit (to varying degrees) playoff aspirations. There is an awful lot of defensive talent and diversity mixed in there. Getting off to a fast start to build confidence and ease pressure is vitally important for a young team looking to pull off a surprise season, but the Rams will be underdogs in every game. Even the weaker teams on the schedule--DET, CHI, JAX--wind up as road games. There’s also a predominance of pass-happy offenses that will be a real challenge for the rebuilding defense, with New Orleans, Houston, and Arizona (twice) on the docket. While the NFC West is still weak and a split of those 6 games is attainable, it’s hard to build momentum in between those contests against this schedule.
5. Red zone woes that plagued the team last year have not been solved. Improvements have been made, but there is still no viable red zone passing target, no 3rd down back to push the defense outside, no sledgehammer short-yardage back to help the league’s worst (by a pretty wide margin) red zone attack. Defensively there is still weakness up the gut, inconsistent pass rush (this could change via Spags’ blitzing packages), and even though Laurinaitis will help in this regard, the opponent had absolutely zero problems throwing the ball over the middle even with the very good Atogwe at safety. You’ve got to convert your own red zone opportunities into touchdowns and hold the other team to field goals or nothing at all. St. Louis has been dreadful here for years now. Some progress should be expected, but it’s an awful deep hole to climb out of with the players they’ve got.
Forecast: The Rams finally have some decent long-term potential with all their changes, but that probably won’t ease the pain too much during this season. They’ll be better defensively, and if they can force turnovers the defense could be a real pleasant surprise. Offensively, it’s got to be more than the Steven Jackson show, and that’s asking a lot of a crew of greenhorn wideouts and real iffy bookend tackles. I like the direction and the move towards establishing the identity of being a fundamentally sound, tough, defensive-minded team. The brutal early schedule pretty much snuffs out any chance for a playoff run, though with a couple of unexpected wins there anything can happen. The Rams will suffer the growing pains in 2009, finishing just 5-11, but could make a giant leap in 2010 with another sound draft and good fortune. |
