| Jeff Risdon. 8th September, 2009 - 3:14 pm
 2008 record: 5-11, Last in AFC South
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -7, Sack Differential: -13, Point Differential: -65
Coming In: T William Thomas, WR Torry Holt, S Sean Considine, WR/TE Ernest Wilford, QB Luke McCown, LB Adam Seward, S Gerald Alexander
Going Out: T Khalif Barnes, DE Paul Spicer, S Gerald Sensabaugh, T Tony Pashos, CB Drayton Florence, LB Mike Peterson, RB Fred Taylor, WR Reggie Williams, TE George Wrightster, WR Matt Jones, CB Brian Williams, QB Todd Bouman, WR/PR Dennis Northcutt
Key Rookies: T Eben Britton, T, Eugene Monroe, WR Mike Thomas, CB Derek Cox, DT Terrence Knighton, WR Jarrett Dillard
5 Reasons Why These Cats Are On The Prowl:
1. The arrival of Torry Holt has been sorely underestimated by the rest of the league. Holt gives quarterback David Garrard a reliable receiving weapon that isn't a head case or drug abuser (or both, in Matt Jones' case). Holt might not be the spring chicken of his Rams glory days, but he still runs the best routes in the business and knows all the tricks. His professionalism and intensity will play very well in the Jacksonville locker room. He isn't a legit #1 wide receiver anymore, but Holt still represents a major upgrade at the weakest position on the team. Jarrett Dillard has opened some eyes, proving that maybe all those touchdowns in college weren't so flukish. The biggest potential benefactor might be Troy Williamson, long a disappointment with dropping passes. The former first rounder didn't drop a pass all preseason and team insiders tell me it's not a fluke. Count me optimistically skeptical on him. Bringing back Garrard favorite Ernest Wilford -- as a tight end -- is a smart move as well. With Holt as the willing paterfamilias, this group is a lot better than anything since the McCardell-Smith glory days.
2. Jacksonville just might have the best overall rookie class in the league. As many as six could start right away, and early indications are that the Jaguars have culled some major talent. The rookie tackles, Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe, are a welcome infusion of toughness and athleticism. Monroe reported late and tutored behind veteran William Thomas on the left side, a savvy move as Monroe is a similar-type blocker to Thomas. But Monroe's talent was clear, and he beat out a solid veteran for the starting gig. Britton seized the right tackle job, impressing the coaches enough to release former starter Tony Pashos. It's a calculated gamble starting two rookies as the bookend tackles, but talent dictated that they play. Defensive tackle Terrence Knighton has been the hit of camp, a freakishly quick tackle has drawn comparisons to Tommie Harris and Shaun Rogers from opposing coaches -- lofty praise for a third rounder from Temple. Cornerback Derek Cox was a surprise third rounder (I had him pegged in the sixth-seventh), but thus far he has proven worth the reach, earning the starting job and pushing veteran Brian Williams off the roster. A pair of rookie receivers, Jarrett Dillard and Mike Thomas, have not moved into the starting lineup but should contribute, particularly Thomas, a speedy mite who lost too much preseason time to injury to earn a more prominent role. Late round pounder Rashad Jennings won the backup running back job to boot.
3. Garbage out, class in. That was the theme of the summer. Take a quick look up at the arrivals and departures. You probably recognize more names in the departures and assume, "They'll miss him." Wrong. Matt Jones, Reggie Williams, Tony Pashos, Brian Williams, Khalif Barnes -- they are all gone because the team (and fans) overvalued them for too long. Every single one of them has been replaced by someone younger, better, hungrier. Are they going to miss Fred Taylor and Mike Peterson -- absolutely, but the youth movement had to have some collateral damage. The older guys brought in -- Holt, William Tra (I can't remember which he wants to be called this year) Thomas, Sean Considine -- are all consummate professionals who have won in the past and expect to do so once again. The younger imports -- McCown, Seward, Alexander -- are eager to prove they can be more in the NFL than good backups, even though that's their collective role in Jacksonville. This team got younger, yet more mentally mature at the same time. With the lack of "team" that epitomized the 2008 Jaguars, it's a smart course of action by new general manager Gene Smith, and they'll be better for it even if it costs them a victory or two.
4. The offensive line is healthy once again. Last season starting center Brad Meester missed half the year, but the real loss was at guard. Both starting guards, Vince Manuwani on the left and Maurice Williams on the right, were lost for the season during the first week. That decimated the run blocking and left the middle of the line highly vulnerable. All are back, all are fired up, and now the team has better depth because the backups all saw significant time last year in their collective stead. With the stud rookies on the outside and Thomas as an impressive #3 tackle, the offensive line is back to being listed amongst the assets and not the object of weekly prayer vigils from the Jacksonville faithful. How the new line comes together is a question, but this group has potential to be among the very best in the league. Potentially.
5. Even in a down season, two prominent Jaguars still had fantastic seasons. Running back Mo Jones-Drew and cornerback Rashean Mathis both merited Pro Bowl berths. Jones-Drew is now the bell-cow running back, and his powerful running paired with his quick feet and diminutive height make him the hardest guy in the league to tackle. His receiving skills are top notch as well. So long as Jack Del Rio doesn't overwork him, MJD should challenge for the league combined-yardage title and do so quite effectively. Mathis gambles a bit too often for some, but he's an elite cover corner with great ball skills. Give him an improved pass rush and Mathis, still in his prime years, will challenge for All Pro honors as one of the best play-making corners in the game. You don't win in this league without premium talent at certain spots, and the Jaguars have it at running back and cornerback. The linebackers don't have a breakout star, but in Justin Durant, Daryl Smith, and Clint Ingram, the Jaguars have one of the best young trios in the game. In their division, those are mighty important spots.
5 Reasons Why It'll Be A Cold Autumn In Northern Florida:
1. Everything I wrote above is extremely, perhaps unrealistically, optimistic. I'm reminded of 'My Cousin Vinny' when Joe Pesci gives the following counterargument, "Everything that guy said is bullsh**." Crude and simplistic, but in the end it also wound up being prescient. That could very well be the case here too, particularly regarding the offense.
2. The pass rush, or lack thereof, is a serious problem. In the 2008 draft the Jaguars traded way up to snag Derrick Harvey in the first round, only to have him hold out and be a non-factor as a rookie. Another 2008 defensive end draftee, Quentin Groves, was expected to make an immediate impact as an edge rusher. He netted 2.5 sacks, 1.5 of which were gifts from the opposing quarterback. John Henderson is a solid defensive tackle but he's no threat to get to the quarterback. One way around the problem of not getting pressure from the front four is to blitz more, but as talented as the linebackers are -- and they are a very good trio -- none are great or proven blitzers. The secondary is iffy beyond Mathis, and a strong pass rush is the best friend of questionable safety play. Likewise, problems at the back end get exacerbated by the lack of a pass rush. That was the story in 2008, and with Peyton Manning's Colts and the Schaub/Johnson Texans in the division, that looks to be a major issue once again in 2009.
3. Garrard looks more and more like a one-year wonder all the time. There is a reason why he sat on the bench for three-plus seasons, and his breakout 2007 campaign is the epitome of a statistical anomaly. Of particular note is the TD/INT ratio: a stellar 18/3 in 2007, but a pedestrian 15/13 in 2008. Some of that is based on the injury decimation of the offensive line in front of him, as only one quarterback got hit more frequently than Garrard. (Intriguing tangent: Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger, the two Super Bowl starters, ranked first and third in that category, while the two least hit quarterbacks were Drew Brees and Jay Cutler, both of whom missed the playoffs) A healthy, improved line will help, as will a more competent receiving corps, but Garrard is an average starter, nothing more. You don't win a lot of games with an average starting quarterback unless you've got a dominant defense -- and the Jaguars 'D' is good but not unbeatable.
4. The schedule makers did the Jaguars no favors. Three of the first four games are within the AFC South, not exactly an easy place to break in rookie bookend tackles with Mario Williams, Dwight Freeney, and Kyle Vanden Bosch licking their chops. Two roadies take them to the Pacific Time Zone, never an easy task (though better than Eest Coast teams traveling east). The final three games are rough: Week 15 features Indianapolis, a week before the Colts traditionally start resting their big guns for their inevitable playoff disappointment. Weeks 16 and 17 take the Florida team to Foxboro and Cleveland in late December. Even though the Jaguars aren't built like a warm-weather specialist team, when it's 70 degrees at home but 10 degrees with two feet of snow, you tend to suffer the consequences. Teams that are looking to bounce back from down seasons love to get off to a fast start, but that seems unlikely, and a strong finish is an uphill battle. Fortunately the middle of the season looks pretty mild, but there probably aren't enough wins there to outpace all their rivals in a division where the other three teams are all legit playoff contenders.
5. It's a season of great change and turnover. Aside from all the player comings and goings, the team parted ways with longtime general manager Shack Harris, replacing him with Gene Smith. With so many new faces in so many key places, it's a difficult assumption that it will all come together quickly. There is definitely enough talent here to compete, but that was true last year as well, when the Jaguars were a fractious mess. That leads to a difficult conclusion: Jack Del Rio is probably not the right head coach for this team anymore. The biggest reason he's still employed here is that owner Wayne Weaver cannot afford to fire him so quickly after signing him to a rich extension. That economic pinch -- the Jaguars aren't even close to selling out home games -- tends to have negative ramifications all the way down. I happen to like Jack Del Rio but he can be difficult to work with and play for. Look at all the recent successful quick-rebuild projects and you'll see that foremost among the changes were the head coaches. Del Rio deserves to be an NFL head coach, but when you clean house like the Jaguars have done, hanging onto the old coach makes little sense.
Forecast: Jacksonville is one of, if not the hardest, team in the league to forecast for 2009. This team has a recent history that screams "bounce back year" after the disappointing 2008, but there are so many unknowns with all the player movement and dependence on rookies and unproven youngsters. Make no mistake, they will be better in 2009, but by how much is a great question. If it all clicks quickly, this team has a very good chance of making the playoffs with 10 or 11 wins. It could just as easily slog to another 5 or 6 win campaign that would spell even more changes next offseason. Neither outcome would surprise me, and even though I think this team is far more likely to win either 10 or 6, I'll split the difference and forecast an 8-8 finish for Jacksonville in 2009.
-- Jeff Risdon is RealGM's senior football writer. He may be reached at Jeff.Risdon@RealGM.com. |
