| Jeff Risdon. 2nd September, 2009 - 4:32 pm
 2008 record: 6-10, 3rd in NFC North
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: +7, Sack Differential: +7, Point Differential: +39
Coming In: S Anthony Smith
Going Out: T Mark Tauscher, DT Colin Cole
Key Rookies: DT B.J. Raji, OLB Clay Matthews, OL T.J. Lang
Offense
QB: The Packers took a giant step back in the first year A.F. (after Favre), but you cannot blame Aaron Rodgers. The first-year starter turned in a highly prolific season, rating near the top in a bevy of passing statistics. Confident, accurate, and mobile, Rodgers looked every bit the franchise quarterback. He fought through a nagging shoulder injury but still had the arm strength to tie for the league lead in completions of 40 yards or more. Able to spread the ball all over the field and not afraid to use every eligible receiver, Rodgers should continue to thrive as the leader of a very potent passing game. His biggest challenge is learning to throw the ball away quicker and more away--a common malady of inexperienced QBs. For you fantasy geeks, I rate Rodgers as my #1 fantasy QB for 2009; he’s going to throw the ball a lot, and against a lot of lesser secondaries.
Matt Flynn blew past fellow rookie Brian Brohm on the depth chart to seize the backup job, though that has as much to do with Brohm’s failing than Flynn being great. Plucky and ultra-competitive, Flynn overcomes a lack of great size or arm strength with moxie and athleticism. The offense would have to re-tool if he took over on an extended basis, but he has some likable attributes as a backup. Brohm appears headed for flopdom; if the Packers can find a better veteran on the street, the one-time #1 pick on many a mock draft board in 2007 (heading into the 2008 college season) is likely washed out of the league after one season.
RB: This is a decisive season for Ryan Grant, who amazed as a surprise starter in 2007 but showed little burst or fight in a downer 2008. Grant has good size and runs with deceptively hard speed, but he lacks great vision. He is one of those runners that needs the OL to create the hole where it’s designed. Grant must also cut back on the fumbles, though he is a sure-handed receiver. Durability is not a concern, as he toted over 300 carries and was the same guy in December that he was in September.
You almost need a road map to figure out the backup RB spots. It’s a four-way battle with no ordination decided before the final preseason game. Brandon Jackson would nail down the gig if he improved his pass protection, but that hasn’t happened. He has the best wiggle of the group and has shown he is an effective, elusive cutback runner. His 5.5 yards per carry jump out, though he tends to get that by getting a 12 yard run followed by a 1 yard loss. Tiny Tyrell Sutton, an undrafted rookie from Northwestern, has endeared himself to coaches and teammates with his toughness and work ethic. He wasn’t expected to survive on the roster this long, but if the season started today (Sept. 1), he would be the top backup. He plays like a poor man’s Mo Jones-Drew, though not as physically imposing. Kregg Lumpkin was in a similar place a season ago, but he has not had a strong summer, battling fumblitis and dancing to the hole instead of showing the attacking style that won him a job last year. DeShawn Wynn looks the part of a power back and has better vision than Grant, but he has struggled with injuries. He should benefit more than the others from the switch to a more straightforward blocking scheme, but Sutton has stolen his thunder and Wynn appears to be the odd man out.
Fullback Korey Hall is an integral piece of the offense despite rarely touching the ball. A very good lead blocker who sees the defense through the eyes of a runner, Hall excels at locking up the inside pursuit linebacker while Grant or Jackson cut outside off his block. He’s also an effective pass protector, and the Packers surprisingly use max protection more than most teams. The offense was not the same when he sat due to a knee injury, so the Packers drafted big Quinn Johnson to back him up.
WR/TE: The wideouts group is deep, talented, and well-conceived. Greg Jennings earned a nice extension that dictates he is the #1 receiver, and the Western Michigan product deserves to be mentioned among the elite wideouts in the league. No WR has more yards after the catch over the last three years than Jennings, a testament to how he snatches the ball from the air and immediately turns into a great runner. He has the speed to get behind the defense paired with the route running precision to consistently get open. Venerable Donald Driver comes back to try and extend his string of 1,000 yard receiving seasons to seven. Driver has ranked in the top 15 in 3rd down receptions for each of the last 9 seasons, an incredible string that seems likely to continue. He is a clutch player and a revered leader and he hasn’t lost much of his physical speed at age 34.
Green Bay likes to spread it out with multiple wideouts, and their depth allows them to do so quite effectively. James Jones should bounce back from an injury-plagued 2008. He has good size and understands how to present himself as a target, though he must catch the ball more cleanly. Like Driver, Jones is a very good blocker and isn’t afraid to mix it up physically with defenders. Jordy Nelson steadily improved throughout his rookie season, and the shifty/speedy Kansas State product displayed some great hands. He’s a natural slot receiver and possession-type wideout and could usurp Jones as the #3. Physical Ruvell Martin is the best #5 WR in the NFL, which is probably little consolation to his ego or his agent, but it serves the Packers well. They have a promising youngster in Brett Swain, but he will be pressed to make the active roster on game days.
Big things are expected of Jermichael Finley at TE. The second year player has been a camp standout and makes a huge red zone target. He has enough speed to stretch the seam a little, and he is a physical blocker. He should see a lot more action thanks to some newfound maturity, probably at Donald Lee’s expense. Lee is strictly a safety checkdown, though a very sure handed one. Finley offers more intrigue, while Lee is a more effective blocker and short-yardage target.
OL: There are a host of young bodies here, and the coaching staff repeatedly shuffled the deck until finding a suitable combination after the 2nd preseason game. The starting five will be, from left to right, Chad Clifton, Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, Josh Sitton, and Alan Barbre. This presents the optimal run blocking lineup courtesy of the right side, where both positions were up in the air to a whole host of combatants. LT Clifton is the ultimate cliché, the hard-nosed veteran trying to squeeze one last good year out of a failing body while holding off a young upstart that he’s secretly mentoring as well. If his steep decline that began last season continues, especially in sliding outside to pick up wide rushers, the Packers will throw rookie Jamon Meredith or stiff-kneed, undersized Tony Moll into the fray--not exactly a recipe for success for such a high-powered offense.
The interior is now the strength of the line, a laughable concept for any Packer backer the past few seasons. Sitton will no doubt upgrade the lousy run blocking at RG, as he is stronger and more aggressive than Spitz, who primarily held the job last year. But Sitton has struggled his entire career picking up twists and stunts, and he’s not quick enough to consistently make second-level run blocks. Spitz slides to center, taking over for veteran Scott Wells. Wells lacked oomph in the run game and had poor feet while moving backwards, but he was adept at quickly making calls and line adjustments, something Spitz must learn. Left guard Colledge is one of those guys that just doesn’t fit into any position real well but is too physically talented to give up on. A leaner in run blocking and a slow-footed lunger in pass protection, Colledge is too ready to allow the defensive player to dictate the action. He has improved his strength and looks fine in preseason, and the switch away from zone blocking should wean his passivity and bad habits.
Right tackle was a classic “King of the Ring” brouhaha straight out of those old NWA wrestling shows on TBS in the mid-80s. The American Dream Dusty Rhodes almost always won those free-for-alls over the likes of Junkyard Dog, Jake the Snake Roberts, and Jim The Anvil Neidhart. Playing Dusty Rhodes in Green Bay will be third-year mauler Alan Barbre, the best run blocker on the team. Physical, strong, and nasty, Barbre will dramatically upgrade the run options to his side of the field. His primary issue is pass protection, where he lacks lateral agility and struggles to keep his balance. He beat out Breno Giacomo, a similar-type player with less experience who missed most of the offseason with an ankle injury. Also in the mix were Moll, who is probably fighting for a roster spot with rookie TJ Lang as the swing backup/game-day inactive, and Meredith. Former Bills G/T Duke Preston quickly washed out as if Bobby Keenan hit him with a concealed chair while the ref was busy keeping George the Animal Steele from eating the turnbuckle.
Defense
The Packers are switching to a 3-4 front under new coordinator Dom Capers, a legend from his days in Pittsburgh, a.k.a. Blitzburgh. It won’t be a fulltime change, as they will be in nickel packages more often than not, but the scheme requires the linebackers to make more plays and rush the passer.
DL: It’s not often that a rookie is the lynchpin of the defense, but B.J. Raji was the Packers’ 1st round pick for a reason. In hiring Dom Capers as the new Defensive Coordinator and switching to his preferred 3-4 scheme, an active, beefy nose tackle is a prerequisite. Enter Raji, who dominated in college and during Senior Bowl week as a zero-technique tackle with the ability to consistently get into the backfield. He must carry that over right away, because there are no other viable options. Ryan Pickett has the beef to play the nose and his stoutness against the run has improved, but Raji offers potential to get into the backfield instead of just holding ground. Expect to see them together at times in something that will resemble the “Williams Wall” in Minnesota, and Raji could see some time at end as well.
Cullen Jenkins returns from his torn pec as the starter at RE, which is the rush end in this defense. If he can get back to the level he was playing before the injury, he’ll be a great fit. His quickness and craftiness with his hands keep blockers off guard and allow him to effectively get into gaps. He has been battling an ankle issue over the summer which has stunted his progress in making the transition, but Jenkins has the talent to make it smoothly. Johnny Jolly will start on the other side, pending his availability after some serious legal woes involving cocaine. Jolly’s game is predicated on speed (perhaps he should have been busted with meth!) and hitting the gap before the linemen can close it, which works better inside than at end. One thing he does as well as anyone is deflecting passes, showing a Phil Dalhauser-like ability to swat down balls. Michael Montgomery is a lunchpail reserve who gets by on hustle and motor, but is best used in limited spurts. Former first rounder Justin Harrell cannot stay healthy, but even when healthy he has been a bitter disappointment. This is his last chance to salvage his Packers career. Rookie Jarius Wynn is on the smaller side but has not looked bad in camp.
LB: The move to the 3-4 changes some roles significantly. In some cases it will help--namely AJ Hawk and Nick Barnett as the inside guys. Hawk was drafted 5th overall in 2006 to make big plays, something he just hasn’t done as the weakside backer. Now he’ll be inside and free to attack gaps and blitz more, which is what made him special at Ohio State, instead of reading and reacting. Hawk will cede more coverage responsibilities to Barnett, which plays to both their strengths. Barnett is coming back from a torn ACL and did not get clearance for full-contact practice until late in camp, so his transition might be a little tougher. Still, he is a savvy veteran who plays with boundless energy and emotion. A great between-the-tackles run stuffer, Barnett must keep his head better, as he is one of the biggest suckers for play fakes and mis-directions in the league.
In Capers’ defense, the outside backers are responsible first and foremost for pressuring the QB. He went so far as to hire former liege Kevin Greene to help coach ‘em up on how to do it right, and if you know Kevin Greene you know the lessons will be loud, profane, and intense. Green Bay moved to get Clay Matthews in the first round precisely because he has a lot of Greene in him, potentially. Extremely agile, smart, and versatile, Matthews is a low-risk pick who should be ready to contribute from Day One. Like his father Clay--one of the most underappreciated talents of the Super Bowl era--young Matthews is extremely strong for his build and is able to everything asked of him at a high level. It will take him a little time to adjust to playing 3-4 instead of 4-3, but he will see a lot of action as an outside nickel rusher, just like at USC. He has decent coverage skills, though during Senior Bowl week he crossed his feet too much. He will give way to Brandon Chillar for coverage purposes, perhaps the only NFL skill that Chillar possesses, and he does it as well as anyone.
The other starting OLB will be Aaron Kampman, who is making the switch from DE. He has the athletic tools to handle it, but he must learn how to play in space and face a different sort of block engagement. Many pundits doubt he’ll adapt well enough, but I don’t share that pessimism. You don’t get 37 sacks in 3 years without having a variety of moves and physical ability. He is Greene’s pet project, and if he fails it won’t be from lack of effort or intensity. Oft-criticized Brady Poppinga provides better relief than most Cheeseheads would have you believe, though he’s not a pass rusher. Undersized Desmond Bishop really packs a wallop and presents a different dimension. As long as the ends can hold their own, these outside backers should be more than adequate at getting to the QB, but that’s a fairly large “if”.
DB: Green Bay will once again trot out the physical corner duo of Charles Woodson and Al Harris, renowned for their press coverage and ball skills. They thrive at disrupting timing and jamming receivers, and both guys can still make plays on the ball despite being in their mid-30s. They should have no problem adjusting to Capers’ system, which should give them more opportunities to blitz and jump shorter routes. It’s still among the best starting corner combos in the league, though age is a growing concern. Tramon Williams is a capable nickel back, speedy and also blessed with good ball skills like the starters. He struggled a little when pressed into starting duty due to injuries last year (Woodson moved to safety), and Williams guesses on routes too much--see the Carolina game, where he’s still wondering where Muhsin Muhammad went. Will Blackmon has good size as the dime back but can be slow to react. Patrick Lee played little as a rookie but has a higher ceiling than Blackmon. Jarrett Bush is far more valuable on special teams, though he saw action at the dime back spot and generally acquitted himself well enough.
There could be a change at safety, as free agent Anthony Smith appears to have the edge on Atari Bigby to start at strong safety. Bigby missed significant time with injury but wasn’t playing very well beforehand, and he is woefully inconsistent. At times he appears to be a difference-making hitter with great closing speed, but two series later he’s locked up by a slot receiver or too slow to provide help over the top. Smith too has been plagued by inconsistency, but he’s more instinctive and reliable against the run. His experience playing behind a 3-4 front is an asset in making the secondary calls. Nick Collins is rock-solid at free safety, a true playmaker last season before injuries turned him into a coverage liability late in the year. Big Aaron Rouse is essentially Roy Williams II, an undersized LB masquerading as a safety that can thump ball carriers but is a major liability in pass coverage.
Special Teams: These units aren’t bad but are far from being reliable. Kicker Mason Crosby continues to struggle with FG accuracy, though he has the leg to make it from near 60 yards. His long kickoffs are an asset, but here too he could use some consistency. Left-footed Jeremy Kapinos holds onto the punting job after the team scrambled to find a replacement for the ineffective Derrick Frost last year. He’s a sound directional kicker with nice hang time, though his longest punt travelled just 54 yards. Will Blackmon is an explosive punt returner but a below-average kick returner. The coverage units were sound, particularly the punt team, and all the key pieces are back.
3 Keys to the season:
1. Can the Packers generate an effective enough run game to complement the outstanding passing offense, keeping defenses honest and demonstrating the ability to fritter away a close game?
2. How quickly the linebackers and ends become effective and comfortable in the brand new scheme, which one opposing GM equated with “learning how to golf with your left hand.”
3. Injuries and luck, neither of which went in Green Bay’s favor in 2008. Just when one spot healed up, another rash of injuries ravaged another area of the team. Going an unfathomable 0-7 in games decided in the 4th quarter is unlikely to repeat, but will it transform into 2 wins or 6?
Forecast: No team in the league is better primed for a dramatic turnaround than the Packers. So long as the new defense and OL blocking schemes aren’t awful and the overall health improves, this team is much closer to the 13-win 2007 Packers than the 6-10 disappointment of a year ago. A great schedule--they could easily start 8-2--helps foster my sunny optimism for the land of beer and cheese. Green Bay storms back to playoff relevance by finishing 11-5, thanks to a potent offense and a newly aggressive defense. |
