| Jeff Risdon. 1st September, 2009 - 3:50 pm
 2008 record: 8-8, 2nd in AFC West
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: -17, Sack Differential: +14, Point Differential: -78
Coming In: S Brian Dawkins, RB Correll Buckhalter, QB Kyle Orton, QB Chris Simms, S Renaldo Hill, WR Jabar Gaffney, LB Andra Davis, DT Ronald Fields, CB Andre Goodman, DT Darrell Reid, DT LeKevin Smith, G Russ Hochstein
Going Out: QB Jay Cutler, RB Selvin Young, CB Karl Paymah, CB Dre Bly, S Marquand Manuel, LB Jamie Winborn, DE John Engleberger, DT Dewayne Robertson, T Erik Pears
Key Rookies: RB Knowshon Moreno, DE/OLB Robert Ayers, CB Alphonso Smith, S Darcel McBath, WR/KR Kenny McKinley, QB Tom Brandstater
As the Broncos have taken a dramatic change, their preview also departs from the norm. In lieu of positional breakdowns, I present 5 reasons for optimism and 5 reasons for pessimism for Broncos fans. After a complete overhaul from the GM office all the way down to the punter over the last two seasons, this team is radically different...and largely not in a positive way.
5 Reasons for Optimism
1. Denver features two of the best young offensive tackles in the game in Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris. Clady was a legit Rookie of the Year Candidate in 2008, exuding dominance at the demanding left tackle spot. His athletic ability and intensity will earn him many postseason honors over the next decade. Harris made a quantum leap in year two at right tackle. Like Clady, he relies on great athleticism for his size and quick feet. Neither are real menacing run blockers, but both are quite effective with sound technique. The line as a whole is solid, but it’s the building block tackles that are the centerpiece.
2. Kyle Orton is a nice fit for new Coach Josh McDaniels’ pseudo-spread offense. He is quite accurate on shorter and intermediate throws and sees the field well. Orton is also unquestionably mentally strong after the battles with Rex Grossman and the malcontented fan base in Chicago. He knows how to transform that chip on his shoulder into effective play, and he knows how to spray the ball around to a bevy of receivers, of which Chicago had a decided dearth compared to his new cast in Denver.
3. The most recent draft class looks to be a very good one. Knowshon Moreno has all the talent and drive to be a legit 1,200+ yard per season feature back and a real load to bring down. Robert Ayers is more than just a pass rusher at outside linebacker, and he will help spearhead the defensive overhaul with his quickness and versatility. With expectations low, the club can afford to bring him along slowly as part of the nickel and dime packages while he learns how to play better in space. The price to get him was steep, but CB Alphonso Smith has great ballhawking skills and will start the season as the nickel back--and the Broncos figure to be in nickel defense more than half the time. Fellow 2nd rounder Darcel McBath has turned some heads at safety, where he will be mentored by Brian Dawkins. Kenny McKinley could see quite a bit of action as the 4th receiver and kick returner. And if the injury to Chris Simms is serious, Tom Brandstater is one Kyle Orton sprain from being the QB and has solid developmental potential.
4. This defense might not be up to snuff, but it should improve in one critical area: forcing turnovers. Last season the Broncos netted just 13 turnovers, worst in the league by a wide margin. Historically speaking, this leaves them due for a big rebound; in the last 10 seasons, eight teams have forced fewer than 15 turnovers in a season. Those teams averaged just under 24 forced turnovers the next year and improved by an average of 2.1 wins. I’m not sure about the winning part of that equation, but a return to near the league average should be expected. With a major upgrade at safety in Brian Dawkins and the young talents behind him, plus a more aggressive defensive scheme and a “safer” quarterback, that league-worst (tied with San Francisco) -17 turnover margin should turn around and finish within a couple integers of zero.
5. As big of a mess as the Broncos appear to be with greenhorns Brian Xanders and Josh McDaniels controlling the team, they’re probably in better overall shape than division rivals Kansas City and Oakland. Owner Pat Bowlen is not a knee-jerk reactionary, and despite the turmoil surrounding Cutler and Brandon Marshall (more on those later), the organization seems committed to seeing this rebuild through and doing it the right way. The same cannot be said for the Chiefs and Raiders, and that brings four winnable games to the docket every season--perhaps the only four wins on the schedule, but enough to keep them out of last place in the worst division in football. Hey, that’s something!
5 Reasons to hibernate through what could be a miserable season
1. The mishandling of the Jay Cutler situation not only robbed the team of its most talented player--at the most critical position on the field, no less--but it set a dangerous precedent. Malcontent wideout Brandon Marshall, who inherits the role of most talented player on the roster, saw how Cutler wagged the dog and is shaking furiously to try and do the same. Denver has handled him correctly in failing to acquiesce to his immature demands, but the price for that is awfully high. Suspended for the rest of the preseason and clearly a pariah in the locker room, Marshall cannot be a part of the long-term solution. His actions also take him away as part of the short-term success plan; he has zero chemistry with his new QB and has lost the respect of his teammates and coaches. You simply cannot erase two playmaking, legit Pro Bowl talents from an offense and not expect to significantly fall back.
2. The run defense has long been a major problem, and it almost certainly won’t improve in 2009. The team brought in Ronald Fields to shore up the nose tackle spot, but he’s better suited to play 1-technique and is not the dynamic force that new coordinator Mike Nolan needs to anchor his 3-4 front. The other guys up front--Kenny Peterson, Ryan McBean, Marcus Thomas, LeKevin Smith--don’t intimidate anyone and are all best suited as backups or situational players. And when the line isn’t commanding respect in the 3-4, the linebackers don’t stand a chance. Certainly not this underwhelming group of LBs, where the best player (Elvis Dumervil) is strictly a pass rusher.
3. The special teams aren’t very special. The battle for the punting and both return jobs is undecided heading into the final preseason game, and that’s not because of having too many good options. Rookies Kenny McKinley and Alphonso Smith have both fumbled away chances to seize the return man spots, and the coaching staff is loathe to risk Eddie Royal (now the best player on the offense) in that capacity. Kicker Matt Prater has a big leg but was the least-accurate kicker from inside 45 yards last year, and his career FG % of 68.4 is terrible. At least the coverage units have some potential with high-motor youngsters Wes Woodyard and Spencer Larsen.
4. Other than running back, the Broncos are perilously thin all over the offense. Some of those concerns will be mitigated if TE Tony Scheffler and WR Brandon Stokley can stay healthy, but neither has shown they possess that skill. Of particular concern is the front line, where center Casey Weigmann is 36 and guard Chris Kuper is already hobbled by a “lower extremity injury”. I actually like the potential of some of the reserves (Kory Lichtensteiger and former Patriot Russ Hochstein in particular) but the experience is scant. The top backup tackle is local boy Tyler Polumbus, a behemoth with little athleticism. At wideout, Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall (if he isn’t suspended or in jail) are a great duo, but #3 man Jabar Gaffney (a great fit) is out with a broken thumb. Stokley is fragile and strictly a slot guy. The rest of the wideouts are journeymen (Chad Jackson, Brandon Lloyd) and rookie McKinley. The dearth of depth will have to be addressed at some point, but when a team is rebuilding that is an unfortunate byproduct that often gets back-burnered.
5. One of the things that stands out about contending teams is the number of starters that are in their prime years, typically their 4th through 7th seasons. Most playoff teams have at least eight of their 22 starters in that range, particularly at the positions away from the center of the field. Last year the Cardinals and Steelers each had 10, including many of their stars. The Broncos have five--QB Kyle Orton, LB DJ Williams, G Chris Kuper, NT Ronald Fields, and WR Brandon Marshall (assuming he starts). Two of those guys (Orton and Fields) are newcomers that never met expectations with their old teams. Williams has bounce around every LB spot looking for a place where his athleticism isn’t overshadowed by lack of instincts and toughness. Kuper is an adequate starter and Marshall is a head case, albeit a freakishly talented one. The main key starters are either on the downsides of their careers (Champ Bailey, Brain Dawkins, Andra Davis) or still on the way up and in need of further seasoning (Ryan Clady, Ryan Harris, Eddie Royal, the rookies). This becomes more of an issue when the team is back in contending mode in another year or two, but it limits the ceiling of 2009.
Forecast: It’s truly amazing how one series of plays in one game can alter the course of a franchise, but last year’s Week 16 collapse at the hand of the Bills fundamentally changed the Denver Broncos. Two bad penalties on defense and a 3rd down drop by Daniel Graham that led to a short FG instead of a TD got Coach Mike Shanahan fired, cost the team a playoff berth, and sent the entire organization into a tailspin. The franchise QB is gone, the franchise WR belongs in an asylum, the franchise CB is past his prime, and a lousy defense actually got older, not better. The only saving grace is that they play in the same division as KC and OAK, and the schedule makers front-loaded the weaker teams on the schedule. Denver will win two of their first three, then take a long losing streak into December, where they have a legit chance to win three of their final five. I’ll round down and forecast a 4-12 finish for the Denver Broncos in 2009.
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