| Jeff Risdon. 27th August, 2009 - 3:53 pm
 2008 record: 9-7, Won NFC West, lost in Super Bowl
Key Stats: Turnover Ratio: 0, Sack Differential: -3, Point Differential: +1
Coming In: CB Bryant McFadden, TE Anthony Becht, FB Dan Kreider, RB Jason Wright, LS Mike Leach, S Keith Lewis
Going Out: DE-OLB Travis LaBoy, CB Rod Hood, DE Antonio Smith, RB Edgerrin James, RB J.J. Arrington, LB Monty Beisel, LS Nate Hodel, FB Terrelle Smith
Key Rookies: RB Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB/RS LaRod Stephens-Howling
Offense
QB: Kurt Warner returns as the starter and the 38-year old can still fling it with the best of ‘em. Warner set several franchise passing records in 2008, using his lightning-quick release and preternatural pocket presence to take advantage of a great receiving corps. His steady hand and unwavering poise set a fine example for a team that has long needed a positive leader. Warner’s accuracy is outstanding; he doesn’t just get the ball to the right player, he puts it precisely where and when it needs to be for the receiver to catch the ball in stride and maximize yardage. The primary concerns are his durability and his propensity for making a string of mistakes. Never light on his feet, Warner will force the ball away at times under pressure instead of scrambling around, and he will get pummeled from time to time. He did have offseason hip surgery but appears fully recovered, though any surgery on a late-30s body bears watching.
Matt Leinart returns as the most glamorous backup QB in the NFL. The golden boy has not met expectations, though he hasn’t been as awful as his critics like to believe. The coaching staff has gone out of their way to praise him and reinforce his status as QB of the future and to his credit Leinart has been the good soldier so far. How long that keeps up is questionable, but there are worse things than having a still-promising former 1st round pick and Heisman Trophy winner as your backup QB. Veteran Brian St. Pierre knows Coach Whisenhunt’s system and has elevated his play over the offseason, enough that he threatened Leinart for the backup spot.
RB: In an age of flashy speed, the Cards opted to boast two plodding rushers in 2008. Edgerrin James is now gone, leaving second-year man Tim Hightower as the power back. The former Richmond Spider is a physical runner with good balance and pad level. His stats are suggestive of a short-yardage specialist, though that was not his role. He has better hands and a more explosive leg kick than James, though pass protection is still a work in progress. Hightower has shed some weight and has noticeably improved his burst this offseason, which bodes well for a brighter future with a higher yards per carry average. He must run with more chutzpah and hit the hole more decisively, something he flashed in the playoffs.
Not content to just hand the reins to Hightower, the Cardinals drafted Ohio State standout Chris “Beanie” Wells with their first round pick. Chalk this up as 'high risk/high reward'. Beanie is undeniably talented, a power back with speed similar to a younger Edgerrin James and just as high a ceiling. That’s the reward, but the other side of the coin looms large too. Beanie has a well-earned reputation for being difficult and unable to perform unless he’s 100% healthy, a status he has not achieved real often (including this preseason). An extended holdout didn’t help matters. This sure appears to be a lost rookie season, though Wells can still make an impact if he’s healthy, as he is a tremendously gifted natural runner with great vision and balance.
Fellow rookie LaRod Stepthen-Howling will make more of an impact as a kick returner, though his raw speed will get him a look as the 3rd down back, along with former Browns Jason Wright. Wright flashed decent hands and agility in Cleveland and he should adequately replace JJ Arrington. Dan Kreider takes over as the blocking fullback, a job he’s done quite well for a decade.
WR/TE: This is perhaps the best overall positional unit of any team in the NFL. That starts with Larry Fitzgerald, perhaps the most talented player regardless of position in the entire league. I could ladle on the superlatives, but quite simply there is nothing that he does not do better than just about any other receiver and he has it all in one package. He’s far from a one-man gang, however.
Anquan Boldin is an ideal #2 wideout. Big, physical, and one of the toughest wideouts around (he played just two weeks after getting his face shattered), Boldin runs great routes and is very sure-handed. His all-out style makes him dangerous with the ball in his hands, but it also lends to injury problems. He is the best blocker of the group.
Steve Breaston really stepped up in 2008 as the #3, and with Fitz and Bolden they became part of a rare fraternity--3 teammates all netting over 1000 yards receiving. He worked hard at improving his release off the line and his conditioning and it paid off in spades. Breaston is the downfield threat, admirably taking over for Bryant Johnson in that role.
The Cards have loads of talent here and it doesn’t stop with the top 3. Jerheme Urban has developed into a reliable, big target with enough speed to get downfield. He is in a similar situation to Breaston a year ago and could similarly blossom, though Urban isn’t as fast. Give the offensive coaching staff loads of credit, because even the 4th-6th wideouts on this team run precise routes and know how to get separation. Some of that is surely scheme-related, but the receivers are clearly well-groomed. Early Doucet had some nagging injuries but still showed potential in his rookie season. He’ll need to pick it up and improve his special teams play, because Sean Morey is guaranteed one of the final roster spots at WR thanks to his Pro Bowl special teams acumen. Onrea Jones and Lance Long have had nice camps while Doucet has sat because of injuries, and that could spell the end in Arizona for the 2008 3rd round pick as the victim of a quality numbers game.
Tight end is a much different numbers game. The Cardinals use tight ends in the formation less than any other team, and only the Bengals have thrown fewer passes to their tight ends over the last five seasons. Yet there are five combatants in camp, with veteran Anthony Becht the only sure bet to make the team. Becht is basically an extra tackle and offers next to nothing as a receiver, which makes Arizona a good spot for him as they don’t throw to the TE anyways. Ben Patrick had a great Super Bowl and certainly has the body of a great tight end, but he’s struggled to get clean releases. Oh, and he’s suspended for the first four games. Stephen Spach has impressed observers this summer, but he’s coming off a nasty knee injury and was already athletically limited. As a bone to Leinart, the team signed his Trojan teammate Dominique Byrd. The TE-needy Rams gave up on Byrd quickly, and for good reason. Leonard Pope has shown glimpses of being a solid all-around tight end, but he plays slow and methodical and offers little threat beyond about 8 yards downfield. It’s amazing/baffling that the Cardinals have so many marginally useful players occupying roster spots at the least important position on their team, but that’s part of why so few people think the Cardinals have any chance of replicating the 2008 magic.
OL: 'Functional' is the key word when describing the Arizona offensive line. It’s not always pretty and this unit lacks big-name prowess, but they generally get the job done adequately. The starting tackles are Wayne Gandy on the left and Levi Brown on the right. They are a collective oddity in that both are far better run blockers than pass protectors; in fact they are the two most effective run blockers on the line, status almost always reserved for inside guys. Gandy is one of those blockers where if he gets his arms extended, it’s lights out for the defender, but quicker and lither defenders rarely get locked up in his powerful base. Brown was drafted to be the blind-side protector for Matt Leinart, and perhaps it’s a good thing for Leinart that Warner is the QB because Brown is one of the worst pass-blocking tackles in football. Far too often he gets beat by a simple speed move, and he has no kick step or ability to shuffle his feet and reset. The Penn State product is a nasty run blocker, however, and he finds targets in space at the second level very well.
The interior linemen are better pass protectors than the tackles, another oddity. Center Lyle Sendlein has steadily improved into a reliable pivot, and he’s well-liked and respected by his mates. Sendlein combo blocks well, often chipping and then sliding his feet to help elsewhere if needed. Right guard Deuce Lutui is a fire plug of hostility and power, but he still hasn’t learned to consistently keep his feet moving while he’s engaged in a block. Because he’s tenacious and quick to recover, it doesn’t hurt much in pass protection, but it renders him ineffective as a run blocker--a shock for a man of his strength and build. Right guard Reggie Wells is the consummate average veteran lineman: tough, smart, physical, durable, and savvy enough to know what he can and cannot do well.
None of the starters missed any time due to injury in 2008, and Cards fans better hope that rare feat repeats itself because the bench is thin. Elton Brown is a competent swing guard who has some starting experience, but he is the extent of the proven depth. Massive rookie Herman Johnson has earned a backup spot, but he’s transitioning from guard to tackle and needs time to percolate. Brandon Keith has turned some heads as the top backup tackle, but he didn’t play a snap last year. Melvin Fowler has bounced around as a backup center for a reason and the Cards would love nothing more than for rookie Trevor Canfield or Ben Claxton to push him off the roster.
Defense
DL: This group is headlined by the wildly inconsistent Darnell Dockett. As he proved in the Super Bowl, where he could have been MVP had the Cardinals held on, Dockett can be one of the best ends in the league when he applies himself. But he’s just as likely to disappear for long stretches. His supreme athleticism and quickness for his bulk allows Arizona to use both a 3-man and 4-man front, with Dockett being the one sliding inside when they go to the 40 scheme. If he brings the pain every play, every game, this defense will be much better. Replacing Antonio Smith at the other end spot will be second-year man Calais Campbell. The tallest player in the league at 6’8” and change, Campbell predictably struggled with leverage, but he has impressive strength and good fundamental footwork. He’s athletically gifted enough to play on the special teams coverage units, and he showed good awareness at getting his hands up and disrupting passing lanes.
The nose tackle is problematic. Veteran Bryan Robinson holds down the job only because two Michigan products, Gabe Watson and Alan Branch, have flopped. Robinson lacks the base bulkiness to anchor against the run and would ideally be a reserve end. He tries hard and reads plays well, but he’s often overwhelmed. Watson made exactly two plays last year--a coverage sack some seven seconds after the snap (most pass plays take 3 or 4) and a nice tackle on a screen pass where the runner tried to cut back across the field and Watson fell down in front of him. His chronically balky knee doesn’t help his lack of foot drive or instincts. Branch has been even more disappointing. Drafted in the 2nd round in 2007 to be a Jamal Williams-type active anchor, Branch has simply been a fat, lazy mass. If young Keilen Dykes can stay healthy and keep his weight up, Branch could very well be out of a job, but thus far Dykes has not been able to sustain either.
Arizona uses an “elephant” package to morph between a 3-4 and 4-3, and the swing player is Bert Berry. Still a very viable edge rusher at age 34, Berry is a detriment against the run and struggled when playing the traditional 4-3 end spot. They drafted Cody Brown to help, but he’s out for the year after breaking his wrist. Another rookie, 6th rounder Will Davis, will get opportunities. They could still bring back Travis LaBoy, who manned the role last year with Berry and is currently unsigned. Kenny Iwebema brings some scrappy youthful potential as a backup end.
LB: Gerald Hayes doesn’t get much publicity, but he is quietly a very solid inside backer. Better against the pass than the run, Hayes flies to the ball and hits with authority. He struggles to shed blocks and can be straight-linish. Karlos Dansby gets all the publicity, and he deserves it after racking up impressive tackle numbers and flowing well to the ball. Dansby is an instigator and a playmaker, and he blossomed under Whisenhunt last season into a more hard-nosed player. He has strong coverage ability but can be slow to pick up the correct read, and when he charges into the backfield he needs to exude more controlled motion; by one coach’s count he missed 8 tackles for losses or sacks last year. Dansby has the versatility to line up in the traditional WLB spot or at any spot in the 3-4 alignment. Veteran Chike Okeafor is a hybrid DE/LB who plays primarily for his pass rushing ability, though he’s a sure tackler on the edge. He will line up inside at times as well, and he’s surprisingly adept at covering tight ends. Clark Haggans must prove he’s all the way back from a nasty foot injury. Undersized Ali Highsmith and Pago Togafau are marginal end-of-roster depth. Not less than 15 minutes before publishing this, the team signed David Holloway to join those two. One respected observer tells me Togafau has some potential; I’ll believe it when I see it. If Dansby goes down, an already-shaky run defense could be downright egregious.
DB: Much like the wide receivers, the Cards are in very good shape on the perimeter of the defense. Corners Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (hereafter DRC) and Bryant McFadden are a formidably talented duo as good as any in the league. DRC is a true playmaker with amazing ball skills and intrepid athleticism. He showed shutdown corner ability in his rookie season, improving dramatically as the season bore on. He is a future Pro Bowl stalwart and is very popular amongst his teammates for his vibrant personality and his dedication to self-improvement. One area where he needs a lot of work is tackling, where DRC is still a liability. To that end, McFadden sure seems like a great acquisition. A physical corner who knows all the subtle tricks, McFadden is among the very best tacklers and run support CBs in the game. He knows the scheme and adds some grit over Rod Hood, the man he replaces. Ralph Brown played surprisingly well as the nickel back. He excels at denying inside position and disrupting timing on shorter slot routes. Michael Adams is technically the 4th corner, but he doesn’t see the field much as the Cards deploy safety Antrell Rolle, a converted corner, in that capacity. Rookie Greg Toler is a small-school project who the team would love to stash on the practice squad for a season.
The safeties are also a strong point. SS Adrian Wilson has topped the “most underappreciated players” list for several years now, ironic because he’s coming off a down year where he missed far too many tackles. An accomplished blitzer and great in-the-box run stuffer, Wilson is bigger (6’3”, 235) than many linebackers but has sound coverage instincts and closing burst. He will let too many receivers get behind him, however. Antrell Rolle took to the move from corner to safety like Keith Olbermann transitioning from ESPN to MSNBC--a little edgy and not for everyone, but a great fit with obvious skill where he’s at. A fine tackler with a flair for the dramatic, Rolle will still give up too many big plays (hence his move from corner) but he can comfortably slide back to corner and pick up backs and tight ends that split out. Aaron Francisco is a solid centerfield-type safety, and the team frequently inserts him into the lineup and moves Wilson to essentially an extra linebacker. That kind of flexibility and versatility should be used more by new Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis. If you’ve got the bullets, no sense in not firing all your guns!
Special Teams: Kicker Neil Rackers is a star amongst fantasy football geeks, but he’s also quite adept at directional kickoffs. He’s one of the best placekickers in the league. That’s about the only positive for this group. Punter Ben Graham is a barely-adequate journeyman, though he did have some nice coffin corner efforts in the playoffs. The return and coverage units are poor, save the exceptional Sean Morey. Rookie LaRod Stephens-Howling is making a strong impression as the return specialist, further cementing his role as the new JJ Arrington. Steve Breaston has some punt return ability but is probably too valuable to the offense to risk in that capacity. Rookie Rashad Johnson will get a chance to make his name on coverage units.
3 Keys to the season:
1. Which defense shows up? Will it be the one that gave up over 400 points and the most TD passes in the league during the regular season, or the stout, aggressive, turnover-forcing machine that emerged during the long playoff run?
2. Handling success. This team comes off a Super Bowl loss, unprecedented heights for a moribund franchise. The Super Bowl loser has long struggled the following season, and the Cards must not get overconfident or feel entitled.
3. Warner and Boldin and how they play. Warner is aging, immobile, and a little streaky, Boldin is perennially disgruntled and prone to injury. Both must be at the top of their games all season, because the margin for error is smaller.
Forecast: One year I ago I opined that “the pieces are all here for the Cardinals to finally break out and shock the world, but because they are the Cardinals, it’s unlikely to happen.” This year, you can use the exact same phrase and tag on the word “again” as a coda. Lightning rarely strikes twice, and I see this team being a lot more like the squad that got whipped by New England, Philadelphia and Minnesota last season than the Arizona that went on an inspired playoff run. Sure, they could win the NFC West again--they clearly have the best offense--but I just see too many ominous clouds. Arizona stumbles to 7-9, in part by losing every non-divisional road game (again) and playoff payback games at home to Minnesota and Carolina. |
