| Thomas Gass. 9th September, 2005 - 7:17 pm
 With all due respect to Randy Moss, his Raiders debut may be the least compelling story on the field when the Raiders open up their season at New England tonight.
Sure, he’ll make the back page of Oakland newspapers on Friday and he may be the lead sports item in a handful of Minnesota local newscasts, but when your Raiders open up against the two-time defending Super Bowl Champions with a handful of stories and questions of their own, well, certain things just take precedence.
All (or most) eyes will be on the New England Patriots as they set off to do what has become the Holy Grail of football achievements; win three consecutive Super Bowls. It is a feat as difficult as any; Bart Starr’s Packers couldn’t do it, ditto Montana’s Niners, Aikman’s Cowboys and Greise’s (and Morrall’s) Dolphins. Bradshaw’s Steelers came close twice, and John Elway went out on top, retiring after back-to-back wins. While that is an impressive list of Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, none could guide their respective team to the Promised Land for the third time in as many tries. Not only will Tom Brady have to battle some of the strongest foes yet, but he’ll be squaring off against history as well.
It is interesting that Brady’s name is inevitably drawn into any discussion involving the matter. To the blissful cynic, Brady has as much to do with the Patriots’ fortunes as does any back-up defensive back on the squad. They call him a “system quarterback” and point to his seemingly pedestrian numbers as evidence of his mediocrity. Real Patriots fans know that Brady [i]is[/i] as valuable as the second-string defensive back and that’s what makes the Patriots unequivocal champions; the ability of having a team full of key contributors is what has allowed the Patriots to go 48-16 in regular season games since 2001 while winning three Super Bowls in the process.
While the Patriots have thrived on the field with selfless, somewhat anonymous play, much of the credit to the team’s success was hoisted upon those that stalked the sidelines, led by head coach and media-anointed genius Bill Belichick. But with the departure of various key figures this offseason, questions are being asked by the pundits around the league as to whether the Patriots are for real this season. Can they defy history and all its immortal teams and be the first franchise to with three Super Bowls in a row?
To sufficiently answer this question, one must look at the key subquestions surrounding the Patriots’ inevitable march towards the playoffs:
[i]1. Will the departure of coordinators Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel hurt this franchise?[/i]
It was truly a bittersweet occasion for New Englanders to see Weis-led Notre Dame’s dismantling of nationally-ranked Pittsburgh on Saturday, especially since Weis’ trademark five-receiver sets were executed as flawlessly as they were on the pro level.
Out of the two coordinators, Weis will be the most missed. This is no knock on the talent of defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, who was a smart and inventive coordinator, but Belichick is primarily a defensive-minded guy with a defensive pedigree. The void left by Weis was immense, pun intended. Sure, detractors may be excited to see his “pass-happy” ways gone (a charge that makes no sense really, as Corey Dillon had a career-high 345 attempts last season and Brady, compensating for a lack of a true running game, barely made the top three in passing attempts in 2002 and the top 5 in 2003), but what even the most heartened hater can’t deny is Weis’ ability to manage the clock and grind down defenses: the Patriots’ high-speed short-yardage offense has continually been near the top of the league in plays per game since their first Super Bowl season of 2001.
The term “by-committee” is bound to strike fear in the hearts of all New Englanders, as images of Chad Fox and blown saves are conjured up, but, be damned, that seems to be the plan to fill Weis’ departure as offensive coordinator, as Belichick, quarterbacks coach Josh McDaniels, receivers coach Brian Daboll and offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia all figured heavily into the play-calling this preseason. And it seemed to work; when the Patriots starters saw significant playing time in their Week 3 match-up against the formidable Packers, they put up 20 first-half points on the way to a 27-3 dismantling. Brady looked sharp, if typical, completing 12 of 21 passes and distributing the ball to five different receivers and Dillon gained 70 yards on 14 carries as the left side of the line, led by rookie Logan Mankins, opened up bus-sized holes for him to run through.
While the offensive output through the rest of the preseason seemed lethargic and unfocused, the team maintained its reputation as a creative offensive force as second- and third-stringers got themselves acquainted with a fresh playbook as indebted to the legacy to their departed coordinator as the men calling the shots now.
If Bill was the brains of the defense, Romeo was the brawn; the right-hand man who executed Bill’s ideas with near perfection. Since 2001 the Patriots have repeated been in the top ten in the league in interceptions and fewest touchdowns allowed and posted back-to-back top ten defenses in 2003 and 2004.
With Crennel’s departure, Belichick handed over the reigns to his young protégé, Eric Mangini, who previously made his mark as the Pats’ defensive backs coach. His work molding unsuspecting personnel into key contributors like undrafted free agent Randall Gay and WR-cum-DB Troy Brown made headlines. Many defensive players, including veterans Rodney Harrison and newcomers Chad Brown and Monty Beisel have credited Mangini as a young Belichick, albeit one who can condense the complex defensive schemes of The Genius and present them in a more digestible mindset. His rapport with players has continuously been praised in print and on television.
Both coordinators will surely be missed, but their departure has been expected since 2001. In that time, Belichick has inevitably drawn up an exit strategy to fill their respective positions. And if there’s anything the Patriots do well, and if there’s anything that this preseason has proved, it’s that they can sufficiently replace pieces of the well-oiled machine seamlessly.
[i]2. How much does the loss of Tedy Bruschi and Ted Johnson affect the defense?[/i]
If this preseason made anything painfully obvious, it’s that the linebacking corps, once the strength and lynchpin of the defense, is going to be a decidedly weak spot this season. And that is to be expected; no matter how well the Patriots could have planned to lose certain players to injuries, the losses of Bruschi and Johnson, two unmistakable leaders of this defense, had to come as an utter surprise. Johnson’s unfortunate retirement due to the residual effects of multiple concussions was hard enough, but to consider the loss of Bruschi to a stroke not only put his career in perspective, but the team’s future as well.
With their backs against the wall, the Pats did the best they could on short notice and did the only thing they know how to do; find low-cost veterans willing to sacrifice pay and personal recognition to play for a champion. And that they did; Chad Brown, former Pro Bowl linebacker late of the Seahawks, and Monty Beisel, versatile scrapper previously with the Chiefs, were signed to deals. While many applauded the moves as typical works of sheer brilliance (especially Beisel, who drew many diamond-in-the-rough comparisons to Mike Vrabel), neither put forth exceptionally strong performances this preseason. Brown looked his age (35), as he was often caught out place, especially on passing plays. Beisel fared no better; often missing the holes that he was required to plug. But it can be understood; the Patriots defense is considered one of the most, if not the most, complex systems in the NFL. Both Beisel and Brown have repeatedly said that it has been an extreme learning curve; in fact, it’s almost as if they had to be deconstructed and rebuilt into an entirely new position.
While both have shown the initiative to re-learn the position, if they’re not ready by game time tonight, the Patriots’ chances for a three-peat may be in danger; the linebacker position needs to be strong in order for the Belichick/Mangini defense to work. They are expected to breach the holes, cover the receivers, make the tackles, much more than traditional 3-4 linebackers. And with Vrabel hobbled by an injured ankle this preseason and the ever-youthful Willie McGinest turning 34 this season, the impetus for the new guys to learn the playbook sooner than later is the key to Patriots’ defensive success this season.
[i]3. Do the Patriots have any legitimate competition?[/i]
At the start of the 2004 season, the Patriots had one glaring need that they more than filled prior to the draft when they traded a second-round pick to the Cincinnati Bengals for disgruntled halfback Corey Dillon. It was such an improvement over the capable, but ineffective incumbent halfback Antowain Smith that many ceded the Patriots the Super Bowl before they even played a down. Flash forward to this past offseason and the subsequent retirement of Ted Johnson, the loss of Roman Phifer, and the loss of Tedy Bruschi for the season to a stroke and the Pats had a dire need for a linebacker, even more so since their complex 3-4 defense requires as much out of an able-bodied linebacker as humanly possible. Caught by surprise by these losses, the Patriots brought in Chad Brown and Monty Beisel to fill the void. While both are solid players, neither can be considered serious upgrades over Bruschi/Johnson at this point. Since, aside from the necessary signings of Brown and Beisel and the emergence of Tim Dwight as a kick-returning threat this preseason, one could effectively argue that the Pats haven’t significantly improved this offseason, the real question is has any team finally caught up to the Patriots?
The Colts, suddenly the rivalry [i]du jour[/i] by Red Sox fans who need to transplant their hostility towards someone other than the Yankees once the baseball season ends, are probably the Patriots’ most legitimate threat, as the amazing Colts offense looks to improve on last season’s record-setting pace. But as much as their offense propelled them into the higher echelon of the NFL, their suspect defense proved to be their downfall in the playoffs as they were continually overmatched by the aggressively calculated Patriots offense. Key free agent addition Corey Simon looks to bolster that defense; one that finished 29th overall last season. But was Simon a [i]necessary[/i] acquisition? One could argue that pass-rushing, (and, to a lesser extent, run-defense) wasn’t necessarily a dire need for the Colts. Last season the Colts ranked fourth in adjusted sack rate (explained [url=http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=110]here[/url]) and sixth in power rank (a run-defense metric, explained [url=http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl.php]here[/url]) which suggests that the front line wasn’t as in need of a tune-up as other parts of a defense that ranked 18th in [url=http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php]defensive DVOA[/url]. The true problem with the Colts’ defense lay in the defense of short- to mid- range passing attacks (signaling a need for a LB presence as well as talented defensive backs), something the Patriots’ exploited during their AFC semi-final match-up last postseason. With a set of up-and-comers in the defensive backfield, led by draftee Marlin Jackson, the Colts may end up with the same defensive struggles as the previous year.
Pittsburgh, as usual, fields a talented defense, but with Duce Staley injured and Jerome Bettis’ Hall of Fame career winding down, the offense will be looking towards sophomore quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to improve upon his impressive rookie season. While statistically he wasn’t as impressive as his reputation made him out to be, he was at the helm of a team that was one of the most efficient offenses in 2004. For the Steelers to remain viable contenders, they may have to shift their focus from a power-running offense to a mixed bag of short-yardage high-percentage plays in order to relieve the pressure on Big Ben.
Likewise, around the AFC and NFC, the usual suspects are in contention again. Philadelphia has finally (hopefully) put the Terrell Owens situation to rest and look to remain the most legitimate threat coming out of the NFC. Look for Carolina, Atlanta, Minnesota, and St. Louis to give the Eagles some stiff competition while Dallas may end up being the dark horse candidate with Drew Bledsoe at the helm and Parcells finally able to build the 3-4 defense he wanted.
The Broncos should pose a problem to the Chiefs, Chargers, and Ravens for playoff spots as the Jets, Bengals and Bills look for their key offseason acquisitions to help obtain the few final spots. Whether or not this may be enough to unseat the champs remains to be seen, but very few contending teams this season have regressed to the point as to knock themselves out of contention and even more bubble teams have strengthened themselves as to make the final few weeks difficult on the incumbents.
This year’s offseason struggles have guaranteed that the gap between the champions and the contenders has shortened to the point where one would really consider the Patriots the underdog to win it all. And it’s a position the Patriots love being in. |
